Alina Frolova
Western public discourse is increasingly dominated by the idea that Ukraine is losing the war and should pursue a peace deal to avoid further losses. This perception likely arises from a disproportionate focus on visible land domain operations, which tend to dominate media coverage and are easier to follow.
Yet wars are won with strategies, not tactics. And in this area, Ukraine can demonstrate a clear path to holding Russia on the battlefield while inflicting what will ultimately prove to be unbearable losses. If that sounds questionable, remember that 12 days before Bashar al-Assad’s fall his regime looked absolutely secure.
Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has passed through several stages over the last 11 years. Contrary to the common belief that the conflict began in 2022, its origins trace back to 2014. It started with initial Ukrainian losses on the battlefield (and in Western public opinion, where few recognized the possibilities for pan-European destabilization) followed by a low-intensity, almost frozen conflict after the Minsk Agreements of September 2014.
Since the all-out war was launched in February 2022, despite evolving battlefield dynamics and changing tactics on both sides, the conflict remains attritional at the strategic level. This is not surprising, as most conventional wars oscillate between attrition, maneuver, and reconstitution. Both Ukraine and Russia have faced severe blows to manpower and equipment, with neither side capable of executing large-scale combined-arms maneuvers to mitigate them. In other words, even when Russia does pass through Ukrainian lines, it lacks the forces to exploit its advantage to decisive, war-winning effect.
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