William Pesek
If you think you’re having a bad spell at work, spare a thought for economist Gao Shanwen.
A month ago, he was the high-profile chief economist at state-owned SDIC Securities, and a serious player in mainland financial circles. Today, he’s arguably as high-profile an economic villain as you’ll find in President Xi Jinping’s orbit. And he’s since been silenced, according to the Wall Street Journal and South China Morning Post.
Gao’s sin? Saying that China may have grown just 2% over the last two or three years, less than half the rate Xi’s government claims. The reason Gao is allegedly being silenced is for shining a brighter-than-usual spotlight on one of the biggest perception problems facing Xi’s Communist Party: that China routinely cooks the GDP books.
Claims on Friday that China grew 5% in 2024, exactly as Xi’s government said it would, probably had many economists thinking about Gao’s warnings.
Beijing’s statisticians point to rising exports and private-sector investments in new sectors, factories and equipment. But the giant headwinds slammed the economy — especially a property crisis fueling deflation — can make China’s official growth data seem fanciful.
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