Guido L Torres
The global security environment in 2024 proved as unpredictable as ever—yet, beneath the headlines, several clear themes and patterns emerged. A review of our articles published throughout the year reveals deeper insights into how irregular warfare is evolving across multiple fronts, from the Indo-Pacific to the Sahel, and from space to the bottom of the sea. This was not a year of singular, decisive battles but of incremental advances and strategic maneuvering in unconventional ways.
In 2024 technology continued to be a transformative force, redefining the operational limits of both small insurgent groups and global superpowers. Actors wielded narratives and perceptions as critical tools in modern warfare. Partnerships and resilience played pivotal roles in shaping alliances, bolstering societal defenses, and destabilizing adversaries. Meanwhile, strategic competition in the gray zone blurred the lines between war and peace, making indirect warfare the centerpiece of great power rivalries. Below is a synthesis of major trends, lessons learned, and interesting data points that can help contextualize and forecast what might come next.
Disruptive Technologies
In 2024, technology cemented itself not merely as a tool but as a revolutionary force in irregular warfare, reshaping the contours of conflict and enabling actors to achieve strategic objectives. This shift showcased a range of capabilities—drones, cyber tools, space-based systems, and artificial intelligence (AI)—that altered the operations of both state and non-state actors while exposing vulnerabilities that require urgent attention.
The modern battlefield exemplified this transformation, where Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) evolved from basic surveillance tools into strategic force multipliers. These drones now execute precision strikes, deliver logistical support, and perform in new ways every day. Adversaries like insurgents and narco-criminals have demonstrated remarkable ingenuity, adapting commercially available drones for offensive purposes, as explored in Harnessing Insurgent and Narco-Criminal Drone Tactics for Special Operations. Conversely, the inability of conventional forces to fully address this threat underscores the urgent need for improved counter-drone capabilities, as highlighted in How the US Army Can Close its Dangerous and Growing Small Drone Gap.
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