Iran vs. Israel redux: The enormous difficulties and ramifications if Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear sites

Darya Dolzikova, Matthew Savill

Source Link

Israel's April 19 strike on the Eighth Shekari Air Base in Iran reportedly damaged a S-300 missile defense system (shown here during a test in 2017) deployed to protect the nearby nuclear sites. 

Editor’s note: This article was originally published in April, after an Iranian attack on Israel and Israel’s military response. We are republishing the piece because of its relevance to Iran’s massive missile attack this week against Israel and the near-certainty of some sort of Israeli retaliation.

On April 19, Israel carried out a strike deep inside Iranian territory, near the city of Isfahan. The attack was apparently in retaliation for a major Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel a few days earlier. This exchange between the two countries—which have historically avoided directly targeting each other’s territories—has raised fears of a potentially serious military escalation in the region.

Israel’s strike was carried out against an Iranian military site located in close proximity to the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, which hosts nuclear research reactors, a uranium conversion plant, and a fuel production plant, among other facilities. Although the attack did not target Iran’s nuclear facilities directly, earlier reports suggested that Israel was considering such attacks. The Iranian leadership has, in turn, threatened to reconsider its nuclear policy and to advance its program should nuclear sites be attacked.

These events highlight the threat from regional escalation dynamics posed by Iran’s near-threshold nuclear capability, which grants Iran the perception of a certain degree of deterrence—at least against direct US retaliation—while also serving as an understandably tempting target for Israeli attack. As tensions between Israel and Iran have moved away from their traditional proxy nature and manifested as direct strikes against each other’s territories, the urgency of finding a timely and non-military solution to the Iranian nuclear issue has increased.