Richard M. Rossow
The free trade community has raised alarm bells about the incoming Trump Administration’s plans to pursue higher tariffs against key trade partners. However, the security reasons for accelerating decoupling from China, at least in strategically significant sectors, remains an imperative broadly supported by both political parties. If the goal is to slow China’s domination in the production of critical and emerging technologies, the United States must improve our ability to work with key partners. India is arguably the most significant country to proactively engage as the United States seeks to strengthen an economic firewall against Chinese technology dominance.
Today, India contributes about 4 percent of total global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Despite recent slowdowns in annual projected growth rates, most experts predict India to grow between 6 percent and 7 percent for the rest of the decade, easily out-pacing other large economies. India currently has the world’s fifth-largest economy in real terms at around $3.4 trillion. India is poised to pass both Germany ($4.9 trillion) and Japan ($4.3 trillion) by the end of this decade, and if the country can maintain six percent growth, will be the world’s third $10 trillion economy in less than twenty years. By the end of the decade, organizations like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predict India will provide up to 18 percent of total global growth, behind only China. India’s weight in the global economy will be increasingly difficult to ignore.
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