5 January 2025

How to Succeed in Deterring an Invasion of Taiwan Without Really Trying (Hard)

Scott Savitz

The threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan represents one of the largest challenges for the Department of State and the Department of Defense (DoD). A successful Chinese conquest of Taiwan would not only entail the ruthless repression of Taiwan's population, but it would menace other East Asian nations while facilitating further Chinese power projection.

China would also acquire control of a sophisticated economy with the world's most important facilities for making computer chips. The seizure of Taiwan would mark a major milestone in China's efforts to become the dominant power across the globe.

U.S capabilities to deter or prevent this outcome are hampered by a number of factors, a couple of which stand out.

First, at the policy level, the indefinite continuation of half-century-old policies intended to garner Chinese cooperation against the Soviet Union impedes the United States. Specifically, the United States is explicitly ambiguous about whether it will help defend Taiwan, whose government it does not recognize, and it precludes itself from stationing forces on the island.

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