Fabian Hoffmann
How should Ukraine shape its future deterrence strategy to prevent a follow-on war with Russia? Some may argue that it is premature to raise this question while the Russian invasion, which began in February 2022, continues with no end in sight.
While focusing on the current war is crucial, there are two reasons why thinking ahead is necessary. First, Ukraine cannot afford to focus solely on the present. Little would be gained by avoiding defeat now if it remains unprepared for a future confrontation with Russia.
Second, several analysts have already offered their views on what Ukraine needs to secure lasting peace. Not all these analyses are conceptually or empirically sound, making it important to challenge them where necessary.
A case in point is a recent article by Samuel Charap in Foreign Affairs, outlining a roadmap for a ceasefire and peace in Ukraine. This article addresses two interconnected arguments from Charap’s piece that are conceptually and empirically flawed: (1) that Ukraine should prioritize defensive over offensive capabilities to establish a “stable” deterrence relationship with Russia, and (2) that a stable deterrence relationship, one that minimizes escalation risks, is necessarily the best approach.
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