Hui Zhang
The first Trump administration left the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—also known as the Iran nuclear deal—in May 2018, significantly reducing the constraints on and monitoring of Iran’s nuclear program. Since mid-2019, Iran has significantly shortened its “breakout time”—the amount of time needed to produce enough weapons-grade highly enriched uranium (HEU) to build a nuclear weapon to mere days.
How quickly could Iran make an atomic bomb once it has acquired enough weapons-grade uranium? Some nuclear experts argue it would take Iran anywhere between several months to up to a year. But China’s experience shows that Tehran could build a bomb much faster—in as little as three to five weeks.[1]
Weaponization and fissile materials production. Aside from acquiring the necessary fissile materials, making a nuclear warhead involves several crucial steps. These include converting uranium hexafluoride gas (UF6) to metallic form and then casting and machining the metal into the core of a bomb. Other non-nuclear components would also need to be ready before a warhead could be assembled. Such non-nuclear components include a weapon design, a neutron initiator, a detonation wave focusing system, high explosives, detonators, and an arming, fusing, and firing system. The experience of other nuclear weapon states shows that these non-nuclear components can be built in parallel with the production of nuclear weapons fuel. This means that they don’t require additional time.
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