Stephen Nagy
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the increased connectivity of war in modern times. Conflict in one part of the world cannot be separated from other regions. In June 2024, North Korea provided at least five million munitions to Russia. And more recently, North Korea sent an estimated 12,000–15,000 troops to fight Ukraine. China has also supported Russia’s illegal war through third countries and by propping up its economy through the purchase of energy.
Former Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida voiced similar concerns at the 2022 Shangri-la Dialogue. In his keynote address to the annual security summit, he warned that ‘today’s Ukraine could be tomorrow’s East Asia’.
For NATO and its Indo–Pacific Four (IP4) allies — Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea — Russia’s invasion serves as a cautionary tale about the potential for aggression from revisionist powers. It has prompted a re-evaluation of military readiness and collective defence strategies. Countries in the region, such as Japan and South Korea, have become acutely aware of the need to strengthen deterrence capabilities.
The situation has also galvanised NATO discussions about the importance of a cohesive response to aggression, emphasising the necessity of solidarity not only in Europe but across the globe. This is based on a convergence in understanding in NATO that ‘unilateral transgressions of the rules-based international order and other unexpected events will have dramatic domino effects all over the world’, requiring a coordinated response.
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