Mahmut Cengiz
This article explores the growing influence of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria and the potential responses of ISIS, a longstanding rival, to HTS’s expanding control. HTS is seeking legitimacy and has garnered tacit approval from Western governments and regional actors, including the European Union, which is engaged in pragmatic relationships with the group due to the ongoing Syrian refugee crisis. The United States also closely monitors the situation as dynamics shift in the region. According to the Global Terrorism and Trends Analysis Center (GTTAC) database, which recorded nearly 8,000 attacks in Syria by 88 different terrorist groups from January 2018 to October 2024, ISIS remains the most dominant actor in terms of attack frequency, group size, and global reach. Despite some speculation about whether ISIS might withdraw from the region, its increasing operational capabilities and well-established presence suggest it will continue to challenge HTS’s leadership. The historical rivalry between ISIS and HTS raises the likelihood of ongoing conflict. While temporary ceasefires may occur, ISIS is expected to exploit any weaknesses in HTS’s governance, posing a significant challenge to long-term regional stability. Ultimately, ISIS’s resilience and strategic adaptability may undermine HTS’s attempts to consolidate power, further destabilizing Syria’s future trajectory.
No comments:
Post a Comment