Amb. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Arben P. Cici
While the world’s eyes and attention were focused on the new Trump administration, the consequences of its policies after January 21 in Ukraine, and the raging fires of the Middle East, a new fire flared up and died down in the blink of an eye in Syria. A pending issue took suddenly an unexpected turn.
On December 8, 2024, the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime marked a historic and decisive turning point in the Syrian civil war, after nearly 14 years of conflict. This sudden defeat, despite the regime’s growing difficulties, was accelerated by the rapid and coordinated advance of rebel groups, in particular Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which launched a determined offensive from Idlib province, in the northwest of the country. The offensive, which began on November 27, 2024, benefited from the strategic and military support of Turkey, a regional power directly involved in the Syrian dynamic for several years.
A. A POST-ASSAD SYRIA
The offensive enabled the rebels to quickly take control of the main cities and strategic urban centers of “useful Syria” – including Aleppo, Hama, Homs and eventually Damascus. The capture of the Syrian capital was the final blow to the regime, which had been weakened by years of bloody fighting, international sanctions and significant military and economic exhaustion. Assad’s overthrow was further facilitated by the gradual withdrawal of his main international supporters: Russia and Iran. These two powers, which had actively supported the regime since 2015, notably through military interventions and financial aid, gradually reduced their support for various political, strategic and economic reasons, including their reorientation towards other regional or international priorities.
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