12 January 2025

Evaluating US Strategy for Ukraine: A Pre-Postmortem

Chase Metcalf

Beginning in February 2022, the world watched as the largest land war in Europe since World War II consumed men and material at a prodigious rate. Since the beginning of the war, the administration of President Joe Biden clearly stated that Russia’s unprovoked aggression would not stand and that the United States would support Ukraine “as long as it takes.” As the war approaches the end of its third year and with speculation about a possible negotiated settlement, it is appropriate to assess the US strategy. Since much depends on the conflict’s final outcome, consider this a pre-postmortem.

Joint doctrine defines strategy as “a prudent idea or set of ideas for employing the instruments of national power in a synchronized and integrated fashion to achieve theater, national, and/or multinational objectives.” The US Army War College defines it as “the alignment of ends (aims, objectives), ways (concepts), and means (resources)—informed by risk—to attain goals.” Regardless of which definition we use, there is a fundamental truth: ultimately, strategy serves policy, and thus, the most obvious way to assess strategy is by asking whether it achieves the policy outcomes at acceptable cost and levels of risk.

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