Europe is in for a turbulent time. The reelection of Donald Trump as U.S. president is yet another shock, after the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine. His policies toward NATO and tariffs will cause more instability in a continent where the political and policy establishment is already staggering.
As the new power balance reasserts itself, expect new poles of influence to emerge. We asked a group of top thinkers — historians and political scientists with specialties ranging from the medieval period to the present day — to share their predictions for what those might be.
Desmond Dinan: The return of Warsaw
Poland’s emergence as an EU power center is partly due to the demise of the traditional Franco-German pillar and the increasing importance of frontline countries following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It also owes much to its change of government in 2023 and to Donald Tusk’s return as prime minister.
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