Doug Bandow
Donald Trump will soon be president. Washington policymakers are understandably skeptical that he will be able to fulfill his promise to end the Russo-Ukraine war in a day. Critics charge that he plans to simply pressure Kyiv to yield.
However, his hawkish advisers suggest otherwise. For instance, Keith Kellogg, chosen by Trump to special Ukraine war envoy, earlier described his plan for peace: “We tell the Ukrainians, ‘You’ve got to come to the table, and if you don’t come to the table, support from the United States will dry up’.” Then “you tell Putin, ‘He’s got to come to the table and if you don’t come to the table, then we’ll give Ukrainians everything they need to kill you in the field’.” Possible terms included a halt in the fighting, Russian control over territory that it occupied, NATO membership for Kyiv placed on hold for a decade or two, and security guarantees offered to Ukraine, backed by Western peacekeepers.
What Can Donald Trump Accomplish?
This is an awful approach that would likely fail while sacrificing fundamental American interests.
Washington would end up even more entangled in a conflict not its own. Kyiv would risk its army’s collapse while relying on another round of unenforceable allied promises of support. Moscow would feel continuing pressure to escalate for advantage. It also would deepen its reliance on China and increase its assault on US interests in the Middle East and Korea. The best result might be a European frozen conflict and global cold war persisting for years or even decades.
The Trump administration’s policy toward Ukraine should be directed at advancing American, not Ukrainian interests. For obvious and understandable reasons, Kyiv cares only about its own survival. In the conflict’s first year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attempted to lie the US into the war, blaming Russia for an errant Ukrainian missile that struck Poland. Zelensky recently turned his personal charm and PR machine onto the president-elect, attempting to persuade Trump that Washington should embrace Ukraine’s interests as America’s own.
No comments:
Post a Comment