Lt Gen H S Panag (retd)
Mixed signals are coming in from Jammu and Kashmir. On 2 January, Home Minister Amit Shah said that the Modi government has “completely dismantled the ecosystem of terror in Kashmir, thereby strengthening peace and stability in the region”. An elected government in harmony with the central government is in power, and the restoration of statehood is on the cards. The degree of terrorist violence is, by far, lower than the violent crimes in metropolitan cities. Tourism is thriving and infrastructure development is progressing rapidly.
However, rather than a decrease in military deployment, 15,000 additional troops were inducted into the Jammu region in 2024, and emergency procurement of counter-insurgency equipment was sanctioned. The troop-to-terrorist kill ratio in 2023 and 2024 was 1:2.6—the lowest level in a decade. But in the Jammu region, from 2021 to 2024, the ratio was an alarming 1:1. Both Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and the Chief of the Army Staff General Upendra Dwivedi, have stated on record that Pakistan continues to wage a proxy war in J&K. The COAS has said that 80 per cent of the terrorists present in J&K and 60 per cent of those killed in counter-terrorism operations came from Pakistan.
So, what is the reality? By all yardsticks, violence has plateaued to the lowest levels ever. For once, politics is at centre stage to win the hearts and minds of the people. Per my assessment, the sporadic surge in violence is due to the changed tactics of the terrorists, necessitated by their small numbers, and the Army’s failure to adapt. This is imposing disproportionate caution, both politically and militarily. Thus, political and military strategy remains unchanged and continues to focus on long-term conflict management. A review of this is in order.
No comments:
Post a Comment