31 January 2025

Decoding China’s Approach to Escalation & De-Escalation in the South China Sea

Anushka Saxena

I. Introduction

The People’s Republic of China continues to deploy an aggressive foreign policy towards its neighbourhood, and shape the status quo into a new, tense normal. Hence, it becomes pertinent to examine Beijing’s escalation and de-escalation strategies in various theaters of the Indo-Pacific, especially on disputes pertaining to territoriality and sovereignty. Such an examination has the potential to inform diplomatic policy vis-à-vis the Asian power.

This study attempts to assess China’s escalation and de-escalation strategies toward the Philippines in the South China Sea. It assesses and identifies patterns of Chinese behaviour, tools of escalation and mechanisms China deploys to de-escalate, and its objectives in shaping power dynamics a certain way across theaters, given a gap in literature. Such a study has the potential to understand the drivers of Chinese behaviour and inform policy.

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