16 January 2025

Command and Control and AI, Oh My! – The Case for Petrov’s Law –Opinion

Christopher J. Heatherly

A War Story

September 26th, 1983. The height of the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States of America. Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov, assigned to the Soviet Air Defense Forces, stands watch at a nuclear attack early warning bunker outside Moscow. His shift began like any other but ended with Petrov literally saving the world from destruction. On that fateful day, Soviet early warning systems mistook reflected sunlight for five inbound American nuclear missiles. Soviet military doctrine required the watch officer to relay launch reports to his superiors, who in turn communicated with the Soviet General Staff. On his own initiative, Stanislav decided not to inform his superiors as he knew the United States would not start a world war with such a strategically insignificant first strike. He kept the information at his level, the moment passed, and the world was saved.

Let us consider for a moment an alternative scenario. The Soviet Union utilizes an artificial intelligence (AI) platform with faster than human reaction and decision speed as part of their early warning system. The AI platform receives the same false report but concludes the information is factual and relays the information to the Soviet General Staff. The Soviet General Staff is too far removed from the early warning system’s daily activities to recognize the error. The USSR responds with the full fury of its nuclear arsenal. American and NATO early warning systems detect a massive Soviet missile launch. Following established war plans, the West responds with a nuclear counterstrike. Human life as we know it ceases to exist.

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