7 January 2025

China’s Paper Boat Navy: A Colossus At Risk Of Capsizing – Analysis

Aritra Banerjee

China’s naval expansion has been nothing short of staggering. In just two decades, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has transformed into the world’s largest maritime force by fleet size. This dramatic growth underpins Beijing’s ambitions to project power and challenge the established dominance of the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific. Yet, beneath the veneer of strength lies a navy grappling with critical vulnerabilities—untested in combat, reliant on unproven technology, and overstretched in its strategic reach.

The PLAN may appear formidable on paper, but is a colossus with clay feet. Its vulnerabilities expose it as a paper tiger, raising serious doubts about its ability to sustain dominance during prolonged maritime conflict.

A Force Without a Fight: The PLAN’s Combat Deficiency

Military power is measured in numbers and tested in the crucible of battle. By this metric, the PLAN is strikingly deficient. Since the Sino-Vietnamese War in 1979, China has not engaged in significant armed conflict, leaving its military leadership and personnel devoid of the experience that underpins effective combat readiness. Decades of peace have created a theoretically powerful but operationally unproven force.

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