28 January 2025

China-India Relations: The Thaw-Provoke-Repeat Cycle

Rahul Jaybhay

China-India relations are back to sizzling again after a recent thaw. China recently created two new counties in Hotan Prefecture – an area in Aksai Chin that India claims as part of its Union Territory of Ladakh. The administrative move is expected to consolidate China’s de facto control of the region. The Indian government responded by vehemently protesting, with the Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal, decrying “China’s illegal and forcible occupation” of the Indian territory.

The recent spat was at odds with the China-India thaw taking place at the border after four years of a standoff. Chinese and Indian troops had faced off along the disputed border since the June 2020 Galwan Valley clash that claimed the lives of 20 Indian soldiers and at least four Chinese soldiers. In a December 18 meeting between India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing, the two sides showed signs of rapprochement, discussing military disengagement and the willingness to adopt a “new framework for peace and tranquility” to manage boundary disputes – and the larger bilateral relationship.

The Chinese cartographic updates are bewildering in this context. Yet it fits within a cycle that Indian policymakers have faced since the Cold War: a Sino-Indian thaw, followed by a concoction or recycling of the boundary dispute that undermines troubleshooting of the already-tense bilateral ties. China’s latest move in declaring new counties in disputed territory exactly rhymes with its Cold War strategy, which continues to circumscribe progress in relations.

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