18 January 2025

China continues to shift exports to Global South

David P. Goldman

China’s exports grew 10.7% year-on-year in December, outpacing November’s 6.7% gain and beating analyst forecast of 7.3% growth.

Restocking in anticipation of tariffs accounted for a small part of the gain, but the main driver of Chinese exports remains the Global South, especially to countries where China is building infrastructure. China’s exports to the Global South exceeded its shipments to all developed markets in 2023, and the shift toward the developing world continues.

Exports to the US now comprise just 15% of China’s total shipments, down from 20% in 2018. In December, China sold US$137 billion in goods to the Global South, compared with just $108 billion to all developed markets.

The biggest year-on-year gain in December came from Indonesia, whose purchases from China were up 50% on the previous December. China is building high-speed rail and telecom infrastructure in Southeast Asia’s largest country.

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