Jo-Ann Mort
The only thing we know for certain regarding a Trump Middle East doctrine is that the president-elect has no clear policy regarding that part of the world. Contradictions abound in his appointments and statements. Donald Trump’s first term perhaps offers clues – the signing and promoting of the Abraham accords with the Gulf states and Israel while also moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and shuttering the US consulate in Israel that catered to the Palestinians in east Jerusalem and the West Bank and Gaza, while also tossing the PLO representative out of Washington and shutting down that ambassadorial-rank office.
He allowed his US ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, to encourage increased West Bank settlement, himself a patron of the hardcore ideological Jewish settlers. None of these actions made an agreement between Israel and the Palestinians easier or more near, and now, after October 7, the terrain is more fraught and confused.
Yet, Trump is essentially an isolationist, an America-firster. He doesn’t like mess or instability, both consistent features of that part of the world. He relishes making business deals and making money for his family, more of a grifter than a custodian of affirming and protecting American interests. A President Trump could benefit from the weakening of Iran, having lost its proxies in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. The question is how to further neutralize Iran without setting off more warfare, more instability and more mess.
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