Yves Tiberghien
Over the past five years, the Indo-Pacific has witnessed intensifying great power competition and a series of social and political disruptions, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the ripple effects of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. The coming of an unconstrained and revolutionary Donald Trump 2.0 administration is likely to trigger even more disruption.
Ultimately, it will be the choices made by China in response to the opening salvos of the Trump 2.0 administration, as well as the constraining and balancing choices made by large middle powers in the region that will define the outcomes in 2025.
Events are driven by the confluence of three trends — the shift from a unipolar world to a hybrid bipolar and multipolar world; the exhaustion of the liberal globalisation experiment; and the disruptive pressures stemming from the shocks of climate change, green tech and the AI revolution.
These trends have turned the United States — the superpower at the heart of the current global order — into an insurgent against the system it created. After seven decades building a tight economic and security order that delivered prosperity and freedom for an ever-growing majority, the United States is now bent on destroying key pillars of that order.
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