Hans Horan
On January 10, a director of the company operating Shunxin-39 refuted the allegations, despite the ship’s movements reportedly sustaining the sabotage hypothesis.
This incident appears to be the latest example of Beijing-directed “gray-zone harassment.” In 2023, similar sabotage severed two submarine cables connecting Taiwan’s Matsu Islands, which temporarily disrupted their internet services. This most recent incident highlights the complex dynamics of China’s gray-zone tactics against Taiwan. Most notably, its timing – just weeks before Donald Trump’s inauguration for a second term as the United States’ president – raises the stakes, with China potentially testing the resilience of the Taiwan-U.S. partnership and Washington’s broader commitment to Indo-Pacific security.
Chinese Hybrid Warfare and Gray Zone Operations
The investigation into the Shunxin-39 incident remains inconclusive thus far, though the incident is far from isolated. It appears to align with Beijing’s broader use of hybrid warfare tactics to assert its claims over Taiwan, which it deems a “renegade province.” China’s gray-zone tactics – an established playbook – refers to a multitude of actions designed to deter, coerce, or subdue adversaries without escalating to full-scale war. In this context, China’s actions seem aimed at preventing Taiwanese independence, advancing unification with the mainland, and undermining or outright preventing foreign support for Taiwan, all while stopping short of an outright invasion and/or blockade.
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