Europe anxiously awaits Donald Trump’s inauguration. Its greatest fear is that the United States withdraws its commitments and resources from Ukraine, and perhaps the continent. But it can craft a diplomatic strategy to avert this. Europe must make the case that America has a compelling and enduring interest in European security, including Ukraine. What would this look like?
Trump wants a secure and prosperous America. These are the core interests of any country. In this, Trump is no different from any previous US president, or indeed any current European leader. What is different is the way he will pursue these interests. Trump cares little for values. His policy instincts favour retrenchment to overseas commitment, and protectionism to free trade. In diplomatic method, he prefers transactions and ‘deals’ over making rules and working through international organisations.
This means that Europe can no longer rely on the glue of values, institutions and law that have reinforced transatlantic relations for 80 years. Now more than at any time since the 1930s these relations will depend on the strength of shared interests alone. Europe’s challenge is therefore to renew America’s self-interested case for an enduring commitment to the continent. It must persuade America that Europe’s security and prosperity are preconditions of its own. It can do so in four ways.
Firstly, Europe must explain that its security is a compelling US economic interest. Europe is America’s biggest trade partner. It is also by far the leading destination for American investment. And together with Japan, Europe dominates inward investment into America, which creates jobs for American workers. While Trump may pressure Europe to reduce its trade surplus, this should not obscure how much America benefits from a vibrant economic relationship. A Europe imperilled by Russia or in turmoil after a Ukrainian defeat would severely undermine this. America cannot hope to export more to Europe while also abandoning it to its adversaries.
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