8 January 2025

5 Factors That Catapulted Arakan Army to Unprecedented Success Against the Myanmar Military

Rajeev Bhattacharyya

A morning drill of a new batch of trainees at an Arakan Army camp in Myanmar’s Rakhine State.Credit: Special Arrangement

Of all the ethnic armed organizations operating in Myanmar, the Arakan Army has managed to bring under its control the largest expanse of territory in less than two decades since its formation. It has liberated as many as 13 townships from the military junta so far, covering a vast swathe in Arakan, a region that includes southern Chin State and Rakhine State, even as it seeks to wrest control over areas still under the control of the Myanmar military.

Formed in Kachin in 2009 by 26 functionaries, including Commander-in-Chief Twan Mrat Naing, with the assistance of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Arakan Army (AA) started engaging in armed conflict with the military in northern Rakhine State in 2015. Fighting was intermittent for five years thereafter.

Then in November 2020, the AA entered into an informal ceasefire with the military. But hostilities resumed early in 2022. Another brittle ceasefire came into effect in November of that year. On November 13, 2023, the AA launched a full-scale offensive against the military which continues to date.

So, what underlies the AA’s achievements? In an interview with The Diplomat, Twan Mrat Naing said that in addition to learning from the failures of previous generations of Arakan fighters to liberate Arakan from Burmese rule, the AA’s leadership, its organizational capacity and alliances enabled it to build a robust movement led by AA and its political wing, the United League of Arakan (ULA).

Based on my observations and travel in the region, as well as discussions and interviews with AA and ULA functionaries, five factors seem to have contributed to the organization’s success against the military.

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