Indian Strategic Studies: January 2025

3 January 2025

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s Indian Foreign Policy Legacy – Analysis

C Raja Mohan

When he became prime minister of a coalition government in 2004, Dr Manmohan Singh inherited a positive diplomatic legacy from his two immediate predecessors – P V Narasimha Rao and Atal Bihari Vajpayee navigated many external crises. Singh’s own contribution in laying the foundations for India’s economic modernisation as finance minister under Rao was now paying diplomatic dividends as the world was eager than ever before in a productive engagement with India.

On his part, Singh sought to convert the emerging diplomatic opportunities to transform India’s major bilateral relations. His intellectual recognition of India’s new global possibilities, however, did not find the necessary domestic resonance. The lack of adequate political support at home, bureaucratic inertia and the opposition from the foreign policy community limited his room for external diplomatic manoeuvres.

The visit by Pakistan’s military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, to India in April 2005, ostensibly to watch a cricket match in Delhi, provided the occasion for Singh to explore the outlines of a Kashmir settlement. Serious back-channel negotiations on Kashmir could not, however, be brought to a close. The Congress party’s leadership was deeply uncomfortable making bold moves with Pakistan. The party would not even support Singh’s plans to visit Pakistan. As Delhi hesitated, momentum dissipated on Pakistan’s side as Musharraf’s power began to ebb, and relations reverted to crisis mode after the terror attacks from Pakistan on Mumbai in November 2008.

Pakistan: Polio Perils – Analysis

Tushar Ranjan Mohanty

On December 20, 2024, two Policemen and two polio workers sustained injuries when a polio team was attacked by a mob in the Korangi town of Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh.

On December 17, 2024, three Security Force (SF) personnel were killed and another three personnel sustained injuries as a military vehicle deployed for the protection of polio teams was targeted by an improvised explosive device (IED) in the Draban area of Dera Ismail Khan District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).

On December 17, 2024, two terrorists were killed in retaliatory firing by SFs, when a group of militants attacked a polio vaccination team in the Kot Mubarak area of Dera Ghazi Khan District, Punjab. The militants launched the attack on the vaccination team, which was being escorted by the Police. The Police swiftly responded and moved the polio team to safety, while engaging in a firefight with the terrorists. A patrolling unit of the Pakistan Rangers (Punjab) and local Police arrived at the scene, countering the assault, resulting in an exchange of fire for approximately 40 minutes. The two terrorists were neutralised, and a rocket launcher, hand grenades, detonators, firearms, and a walkie-talkie were recovered.

How Malaysia Is Descending Into ‘Banana Republic’ Status – Analysis

Murray Hunter

The barbaric public caning of a man, breaking the reverence of a Mosque in Terengganu, and the dismissal of criminal charges against high level politicians and family members have greatly tarnished the image of Malaysia.

Malaysia now barbarically intimidates people guilty of moral crimes, akin to long forgotten desert tribal states, ultra vires of the constitution. Public onlookers are something akin to a circus in an environment something like Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves. In Malaysia, the Forty Thieves get off from the judiciary, not only scot-free, but given the highest political positions in the land. The present prime minister was convicted and served a jail term for corruption, the current deputy prime minister was discharged from over 40 criminal charges, and the new Governor of Sabah, was also discharged from his criminal trials.

The decline of Malaysia into something resembling ‘Banana Republic’ status didn’t just occur overnight. The events described above represent only the tip of the iceberg. The decay of governance within the Malaysian state has been going on for decades, being acerated over the last two years.

This article argues why Malaysia could be categorised as a member of states referred to as ‘Banana Republics”.

Bangladesh: Baul Minstrels Allege Rise In ‘Fundamentalist’ Threats

Jesmin Papri

Baul minstrels are alleging that “fundamentalist” Islamic threats against their performances have risen since the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government in Bangladesh, but the country’s interim administration and police say such incidents are isolated.

The Bauls, itinerant performers who follow Islam’s mystical and syncretic Sufi tradition, were a target of religious zealots during the Hasina years as well, as BenarNews reported. A hardline group, Hefazat-e-Islam, acknowledged that it was still demanding a ban on Baul performances, which it views as anti-Islamic.

However, a group that represents some of the community’s top Baul performers claims it never had to cancel as many performances back then as it did this year.

“Since October, 321 Baul performances have been forcibly canceled, with 91 in Dhaka alone,” said Sarder Hirak Raja, general secretary of the Bangladesh Baul and Folk Artists Association.

The elements who oppose the Bauls cut across the political spectrum, he said.

“There are individuals who, without understanding, perceive culture as harmful to religion. This reflects a form of fanaticism that exists across all political parties,” Hirak Raja told BenarNews.

Myanmar: After 2024 Setbacks, Junta Forces Now Control Less Than Half Of Country

Kyaw Lwin Oo

Myanmar’s junta forces now control less than half the country after suffering major battlefield setbacks in 2024 -– including the loss of command headquarters in Shan and Rakhine states, several rebel groups said.

In June, the Three Brotherhood Alliance of ethnic armies resumed offensive operations in Shan state. Within weeks, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army had captured Lashio, a city of 130,000 that is the region’s commercial and administrative hub and a gateway to China.

Another member of the alliance, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, also seized the strategic Shan state townships of Nawnghkio and Kyaukme, as well as the gem mining town of Mogoke in neighboring Mandalay region.

Those victories in July and August left the junta with almost no territory in Shan state, a key area for border trade with China.

“The junta’s administration has completely ended here,” said a resident of Kutkai, a town in northern Shan state that has been the focus of junta airstrikes in recent months.

Biden Administration Confirms China Cyber Breach of U.S. Treasury Department

Amanda Castro

The Biden Administration has confirmed a significant cybersecurity breach targeting the U.S. Treasury Department, attributed to a state-sponsored group linked to Chinese intelligence. The attack, described as an espionage operation, compromised employee workstations and unclassified documents.

Officials disclosed that the breach was detected on December 8 by BeyondTrust, a third-party software service provider, after hackers obtained a security key granting remote access to Treasury systems. While the exact objectives of the hackers remain unclear, experts believe the operation aimed to gather intelligence rather than disrupt critical infrastructure.

The breach has raised concerns given the Treasury Department's role in overseeing global financial systems and implementing sanctions, including those against Chinese entities aiding Russia. This incident follows a series of recent cyber intrusions by China, including the compromise of U.S. telecommunications networks and government officials' email accounts.

In response, the Treasury Department, along with the FBI and intelligence agencies, has taken steps to secure affected systems and investigate the attack's scope. A detailed report to Congress is forthcoming.

China Hacked Treasury Dept. in ‘Major’ Breach, U.S. Says

Ana Swanson and David E. Sanger

One of China’s intelligence agencies hacked the U.S. Treasury Department, gaining access to the workstations of government employees and unclassified documents, the Biden administration said on Monday, the latest in a series of embarrassing surveillance operations against major American institutions.

It was unclear from the Treasury’s limited first account of the episode exactly what the hackers were seeking. But senior officials with access to the intelligence on the breach said that it appeared to be entirely an espionage operation and not part of other Chinese efforts to insert malicious computer code into utility grids and water supply systems, giving them a capability to shut off critical American infrastructure.

In a letter informing lawmakers of the episode, the Treasury Department said it had been notified on Dec. 8 by a third-party software service company, BeyondTrust, that the hacker had obtained a security key that allowed it to gain remote access to certain Treasury workstations and documents on them.

Chinese hackers breach US treasury network, gain access to some files

Dara Kerr

Chinese state-sponsored hackers breached the US treasury department earlier this month, accessing several employee workstations and unclassified documents, according to an agency spokesperson.

The breach was orchestrated via a third-party cybersecurity service provider, BeyondTrust. Hackers were able to gain access to a key used by the vendor to override certain parts of the system, according to a letter the treasury department sent to lawmakers on Monday that was reviewed by the Guardian.

“The compromised BeyondTrust service has been taken offline and there is no evidence indicating the threat actor has continued access to treasury systems or information,” the treasury department spokesperson said.

The hack comes amid reports that Chinese state-sponsored actors also breached three of the largest US telecommunications companies earlier this month. During that breach, called Salt Typhoon, cybercriminals were able to gain access to lawmakers’ phone calls and text messages. Lawmakers across the political spectrum condemned the hack.

Can China Ever Weed out Corruption in Its Military?

Bonnie Girard

Try as he might, it is clear that Xi Jinping cannot rid his military of the insidious corruption that defines its workings much more than the count of warships and nuclear warheads ever can.

Another spate of Chinese military corruption cases serves as a reminder that a decades-long practice and culture of corruption continues to flourish within and among the ranks and relationships of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

Recent headlines of two more Chinese generals who are being investigated by Chinese Communist Party disciplinary authorities only repeat reports regularly found over the years in Chinese media about malfeasance in the military. Promotions come with a price tag. Even basic enlistment requires bribes, sources report. Luxury properties both in China as well as internationally are owned by the relatives of the highest-ranking PLA officers. Procurement – always risky but fertile ground for illicit dealing – is said to be rife with backhanders, inflated contract bidding, and other forms of bribery. Property scandals proliferate, as well. There are even reports of rigged admissions to PLA training schools, and the tests they proctor.

In the latest case, the disgraced officials are National People’s Congress Standing Committee members Lieutenant General You Haitao and Vice Admiral Li Pengcheng. They have been removed from China’s top legislative body, which foretells future action against them if found necessary.

China Is Dominating the Race for Generative AI Patents

Rahul Pandey

Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) is emerging as a transformative technological innovation of the 21st century, sure to reshape economies and societies and alter global power dynamics. The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) has published a “Patent Landscape Report – Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI)” as its first-ever report tracking patent applications in the GenAI field.

The report’s findings are not entirely novel, as numerous reports from various perspectives are publicly available. The main takeaway from all these sources is that Chinese corporations, academic institutions (particularly the Chinese Academy of Sciences or CAS), and other emerging companies are investing substantial financial resources in producing high-quality research and patents related to AI.

The WIPO report revealed that between 2014 and 2023, over 54,000 patent families encompassing GenAI were filed, with a remarkable eightfold increase in patent applications since 2017. Breakthroughs in deep learning fueled these advancements, especially the surge in large language models (LLMs), generative adversarial networks (GANs), and global competition among nations and corporations to fully exploit the potential of GenAI technologies.

China’s EV Dominance In Central Europe Faces A South Korean Challenger – Analysis

Martin Sebena

As Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers have come to dominate the industry, contenders from other countries are struggling to keep pace. Layoffs and dwindling profits, protectionist policies and calls for increased state funding are just some of the responses that dominate the headlines.

Western European carmakers have been hit particularly hard by the rise of Chinese EV makers. In October 2024, Volkswagen announced that it would be significantly cutting its workforce, while the auto conglomerate Stellantis’s CEO abruptly quit in December amid disappointing results.

But in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), a competitor to China is silently rising — South Korea. The country’s firms have managed to transition their long-established internal combustion engine factories in the CEE region into EV hubs while also pumping billions of euros into battery supply chains. South Korea’s successes offer not only lessons for other competitors to China, but also important clues about the future of this competition.

The Obstacles to China’s AI Power

Sam Bresnick

China is betting big on military artificial intelligence. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has made the technology a strategic priority, and the People’s Liberation Army is pouring resources into the development of state-of-the-art AI-enabled military capabilities. Chinese defense experts believe that these technologies will offer the PLA the best chance to equal, or surpass, the warfighting capacity of the U.S. armed forces.

Beijing’s plans and actions have unsettled many observers in Washington, some of whom worry that China is catching up to the United States, or even leaping ahead. There is evidence, however, that China still faces significant obstacles that may slow its implementation of military AI. These challenges include the PLA’s lack of militarily relevant training data, difficulties associated with testing and evaluating AI systems, and stringent U.S. export controls on the semiconductors that power the most advanced AI models.

But even if China figures out how to overcome these technical roadblocks, it will still face several organizational and political hurdles that could keep it from taking full advantage of AI-enabled military technologies in tomorrow’s conflicts. There is, for instance, a looming tension between relying on AI to guide battlefield operations and decision-making, on the one hand, and the PLA’s highly hierarchical, centralized bureaucratic processes, on the other. Xi’s ongoing consolidation of power might also limit the effective application of AI-enabled tools. Although Beijing clearly hopes that AI will allow its soldiers to automate their way around thorny political choices in future wars, it is unlikely that the technology, even if exquisitely developed, will fully ameliorate the Chinese military’s decision-making difficulties.

Houthi attack risk complicates Navy’s calculus on retrieving downed fighter jet, analysts say

ALISON BATH

Recovery of a Navy fighter jet recently downed over the Red Sea likely hinges on what’s left of the wreckage and how safely a salvage operation could be pulled off, analysts say.

The F/A-18 Super Hornet launched from the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman was shot down by apparent “friendly fire” from the guided-missile cruiser USS Gettysburg on Dec. 22. Although the jet is being phased out, newer Block III versions of it have equipment upgrades that could be a tempting target for adversaries.

It’s unknown whether the F/A-18 in question was a Block III or had been outfitted with the newer technology, which includes an infrared system useful in pinpointing stealth aircraft, better radar equipment and a precision approach landing system.

“There would perhaps be sensitive material onboard … worth recovery, but it depends on the condition of the aircraft and where it went down in the Red Sea,” said Steven Wills, a naval analyst with the Center for Maritime Strategy at the Navy League of the United States.

The aircraft may have been largely destroyed, so it’s uncertain how much might be left to recover, he said.

“Much of the Red Sea is relatively shallow ... but there are some deep trenches that are very deep,” he said. “The U.S. has recovered downed intact aircraft in the past, but recovery of wreckage perhaps strewn over miles of seabed would be a challenge.”

U.S. launches strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen as rebel group’s missiles hit Israel

Mike Glenn

U.S. Navy warships and aircraft launched multiple strikes against Houthi rebel targets inside Yemen that were being used to attack both civilian merchant and military vessels operating in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, officials with U.S. Central Command said Tuesday.

The U.S. targeted a command-and-control facility along with weapons production factories and warehouses filled with missiles and drones that were under the control of Iran-backed Houthi forces in the capital, Sanaa, and along the coast. U.S. Navy and Air Force aircraft also knocked out a radar site and seven missiles and drones operating over the Red Sea, officials said.

“The strikes are part of [U.S. Central Command’s] effort to degrade Iran-backed Houthi efforts to threaten regional partners and military and merchant vessels in the region,” U.S. Central Command said in a statement.

The Houthis’ media office said Tuesday that 10 airstrikes hit a facility in Sanaa’s northern Thurah district and two more hit a second facility that houses the rebels’ defense ministry in central Sanaa, The Associated Press reported. Mohammed Abdul-Salam, the Houthi chief negotiator and spokesman, called the strikes “a gross violation of the sovereignty of an independent state.”

The Kurds Are America’s Best Bet In Syria

Matt Cookson

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has left a variety of factions fighting for power in Syria. Although none yet presents a clear threat of terrorism to the United States, the lack of stability leaves the country vulnerable to terror groups in the future. Western leaders should establish a foreign policy that balances non-intervention with support for anti-terror infrastructure in the region.

Three main players are currently jockeying for power in the leadership vacuum left by the Assad regime. First is the rebel group known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a collection of Sunni Islamist groups that were the primary drivers of the recent offensive that ousted Bashar al-Assad from power. HTS was formerly known as the Al-Nusra Front, the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda. HTS claims to have renounced its extremist views, although time will tell if that’s true.

Second is the Syrian National Army (SNA), which, despite its name, is a rebel group fully backed by Turkey. They occupy territory in the northwest part of Syria and are fighting to take more territory, including territory held by the Kurds.

The last contenders are the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a primarily Kurdish group that occupies territory in northeastern Syria.

How Should the U.S. Navigate the Syrian Minefield?

Ariel Cohen

The rapid collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s Ba’athist government is the culmination of a thirteen-year civil war. Key global trends fed into Syria’s suffering: ethnic and religious hostilities, migration, terrorism, militant Islam, and the return of great power politics, as meddling and interventions by Türkiye, Russia, and Iran only made matters worse.

The United States, Europe, Türkiye, and moderate Arab nations must ensure that Syria does not revert to being a Russian and Iranian stronghold in the Eastern Mediterranean again. They must also guarantee that Syria will not serve as a base for future jihadist expansion led by ISIS and that reconstruction efforts include measures to secure equality for women and all ethnic groups, particularly the Kurds, who are American allies, allowing them to coexist peacefully. This will not be an easy task.

With the fall of the Assad regime (supported by Russian president Vladimir Putin and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei), the geopolitical balance of power in the Levant has shifted. The borders of Syria, initially drawn by the British Empire and France in the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement, may no longer exist. Türkiye and, to a lesser extent, Qatar emerged as clear winners.

The Middle East’s Next Aftershocks - Analysis

Raphael S. Cohen

In early December 2023, I interviewed a retired senior Israeli intelligence official about Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack and the swiftly changing dynamics in the Middle East. Oct. 7, he explained, “was an earthquake, and the entire region will be dealing with the aftershocks for quite some time.”

While he didn’t predict where the aftershocks would occur, his overarching forecast of profound tremors proved remarkably clairvoyant. A little more than a year later, Hamas has been decimated as a fighting force, its senior leadership assassinated; Hezbollah has been seriously bloodied, its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah and much of its high command killed; and the Assad regime in Syria has collapsed, its longtime dictator exiled. Indeed, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East has been transformed as a result of these aftershocks.

Will Musk’s ‘Algorithm’ reduce military inefficiency—or increase risk?

Todd Harrison

Following through on a campaign promise, president-elect Donald Trump recently appointed Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to co-lead an effort they are calling the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE. While it is not actually a government department, the entity is likely to prove influential within the Trump administration and the Republican-led Congress—at least initially. Its mandate is to cut federal spending, and Musk and Ramaswamy have made clear that the Pentagon is in their sights. “The Pentagon recently failed its seventh consecutive audit,” the co-leaders wrote in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed, “suggesting that the agency’s leadership has little idea how its annual budget of more than $800 billion is spent.”

Previous DoD efficiency initiatives have tried, and largely failed, to trim spending. This time will be different, one could argue, because Elon Musk is involved. He has done things in industry, such as revolutionizing space launch and electric vehicles, that many thought were impossible. To achieve these unlikely feats, Musk developed a ruthless approach that he calls “The Algorithm.” As recounted in Walter Isaacson’s biography, the Algorithm consists of five sequential steps: 1) question every requirement; 2) delete any part or process you can; 3) simplify and optimize; 4) accelerate cycle time; 5) automate. As Musk tries his hand at public policy, can this approach work?

How Russia's Military Has Changed Ahead of 2025

Ellie Cook

Nearly three years into its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia's military has taken painful hits, but has poured resources into making sure it can regenerate its military forces battling on the front lines in its neighboring country.

Kyiv has managed to put a real dent in Moscow's Black Sea Fleet, shoving many of Russia's assets further away from Ukraine's coastlines and forcing the Kremlin to relinquish its ability to use bases on the annexed Crimean Peninsula.

The war, which has afforded Moscow significant gains in the east of Ukraine throughout 2024, has cost Russia's land forces dearly. According to Ukraine's numbers, more than 780,000 soldiers have been killed or injured since February 2022.

Western estimates are slightly lower, but agree with Ukrainian assessments that Moscow's losses have hit their highest points this fall and into the winter in Ukraine.

At the start of December, Ukraine's government said Russia had lost $3 billion in weapons and equipment in November alone.

But its naval fleets deployed elsewhere around the world remain largely unscathed, although Ukraine has occasionally targeted Russia's navy in the Baltic Sea with sabotage efforts and in the Caspian Sea.

The Good, the Bad, and the Uncertainty of the Trump Economy

NOURIEL ROUBINI

What impact will the next US administration have on economic growth and inflation? The answer is not yet clear, because while some of President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies would boost growth and reduce inflation over time, others will have the opposite effect.

On the positive side of the ledger, Trump will be pro-business overall, and this fact alone could stimulate economic activity by unleashing the “animal spirits” that drive business investment, innovation, and growth. Growth should also benefit if he and congressional Republicans succeed in permanently extending the corporate and personal income tax cuts that will expire in 2025. Equally, if the potential excesses of his deregulatory agenda are kept in check, a reduction of bureaucratic red tape could promote growth and encourage competition, reducing prices over the longer term.

Trump also wants to boost America’s oil and gas production by the equivalent of three million barrels per day, which could reduce energy prices and make domestic energy-intensive sectors more competitive. But one hopes this can be done without phasing out most of the previous administration’s subsidies to green energy.

Ban Solar Geoengineering

MOHAMMED USROF, DISHA RAVI, HELEEN BRUGGINK, and ERICA NJUGUNA

We have grown up in a world where climate change is apparent everywhere. We see it in our stormy skies and in the floodwaters inundating our communities. We feel it in our throats and lungs when we inhale polluted air, and on our skin as we walk down the street during heat waves. World leaders would convene every year to make decisions and deals, compromises and commitments, always falling far short of delivering what was needed to mitigate and, increasingly, to adapt to climate change. This year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) was no exception.

All this inertia has spurred some to try to find a way around the hard work of ending harmful greenhouse-gas emissions, protecting critical ecosystems, and rethinking economic growth and development. One proposed “solution,” being pushed by a small but vocal minority in the Global North, is solar geoengineering, which involves modifying Earth’s atmosphere to create a reflective barrier against the sun’s radiation. For today’s youth and future generations, however, such interventions threaten to be as catastrophic as climate change.

Solar geoengineering can take many forms, including the release of huge amounts of sulfur particles into the stratosphere to create a reflective barrier against sunlight (stratospheric aerosol injection) and the injection of salt spray into shallow marine clouds (marine cloud brightening). But it never addresses the root causes of the climate crisis, and it involves modifying our planet’s atmosphere in ways that cannot be adequately tested at scale, with effects that will last decades or longer.

DARPA eyeing new quantum sensing program

Jon Harper

The Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency may soon launch a new program to develop more robust quantum sensors that can be integrated onto U.S. military platforms, according to a special notice.

Pentagon officials see quantum sensors as promising capabilities for alternative positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR).

However, there are challenges involved in deploying the technology that DARPA aims to tackle with a new program that it’s looking to kick off, dubbed Robust Quantum Sensors (RoQS).

The initiative “seeks to bring quantum sensors to DoD platforms. While quantum sensors have demonstrated exceptional laboratory performance in a number of modalities (magnetic and electrical field, acceleration, rotation, and gravity, etc.), their performance degrades once the sensor is placed on moving platforms due to electrical and magnetic fields, field gradients, and system vibrations. RoQS seeks to overcome these challenges through innovative physics approaches to quantum sensing. The forthcoming RoQS program aims to develop and demonstrate quantum sensors that inherently resist performance degradation from platform interferers and demonstrate them on a government-provided platform,” officials wrote in a special notice and future program announcement recently posted on Sam.gov.

Theory of Mind: US military to build AI that predicts adversaries’ next moves

Kapil Kajal

The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is launching an ambitious initiative called “Theory of Mind” aimed at enhancing national security decision-making.

This project seeks to develop new technologies that will empower decision-makers to better understand and engage with potential adversaries, optimizing strategies for deterrence and incentive-based actions.

In a brief announcement, DARPA explained that the “Theory of Mind” program will combine advanced algorithms with human expertise.

This integration will occur within a sophisticated modeling and simulation environment to explore various national security scenarios.

The intention is to broaden decision-makers’ options and improve efficiency in assessing potential courses of action.

Theory of mind

A key aspect of the program is its focus on understanding not just the current strategies of adversaries but also how those strategies evolve.

By breaking down these strategies into foundational components, DARPA aims to offer a clearer view of how adversaries might change their behavior under different conditions.

How the Benefits—and Harms—of AI Grew in 2024

Andrew R. Chow

In 2024, both cutting-edge technology and the companies controlling it grew increasingly powerful, provoking euphoric wonderment and existential dread. Companies like Nvidia and Alphabet soared in value, fueled by expectations that artificial intelligence (AI) will become a cornerstone of modern life. While those grand visions are still far into the future, tech undeniably shaped markets, warfare, elections, climate, and daily life this year.

Perhaps technology’s biggest impact this year was on the global economy. The so-called Magnificent Seven—the stocks of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla—thrived in large part because of the AI boom, propelling the S&P 500 to new highs. Nvidia, which designs the computer chips powering many AI systems, led the way, with its stock nearly tripling in price. These profits spurred an arms race in AI infrastructure, with companies constructing enormous factories and data centers—which in turn drew criticism from environmentalists about their energy consumption. Some market watchers also expressed concern about the increasing dependence of the global economy on a handful of companies, and the potential impacts if they prove unable to fulfill their massive promises. But as of early December, the value of these companies showed no sign of letting up.

For This General, Soldiers Would Jump on a Grenade

S.L. Nelson

At the end of 2024, every geographical combatant command has areas and threat actors that pose significant risks to global order.

Many writers and analysts worry that the international order might descend into chaos. However, fissures among regional actors often patch themselves when faced with America's military instrument of power. Therefore, effectively wielding this instrument is critical.

President-elect Trump and his nominee for Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, require the right change agent in uniform to advise them on the strategic direction of the military. The current Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS) gave himself a C grade after his first two years as the Chief of Staff of the Air Force. He further opined that both he and lower-ranking airmen were discouraged by Air Force bureaucracy and that he was mentored that some things would take four years in a four-year job.

These passive assessments contradict the incoming administration's desire to hit the ground running and effect immediate change. Moreover, his politically charged advocacy (including that diversity means having a force that evenly reflects the United States demographic) is anathema to the incoming administration's singular focus on a lethal, merit-based military led by the best leaders, not those that self-assess as a mediocre C.

2 January 2025

The Evolving Strategic Partnership Between India and Kuwait

Alvite Ningthoujam

The visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Kuwait from December 21-22 has been considered a major political breakthrough in bilateral relations. It was first visit to this oil-rich country by an Indian prime minster in 43 years. In a significant highlight of this visit, bilateral ties have been elevated to a “strategic partnership.”

India-Kuwait bilateral cooperation has for years been concentrated in three important domains: crude oil trade, remittances from Kuwait to India, and economic engagements. Bilateral trade touched $10.75 billion during 2023-24. Kuwait is the sixth largest crude oil importer and the fourth largest petroleum gas provider to India; it accounts for 3.5 percent of India’s total energy requirements. These statistics underscore the pivotal role Kuwait continues to play in India’s economic and energy security calculus.

Modi’s visit reflected the current Indian government’s politico-diplomatic focus on the Gulf region, particularly since mid-2014. This visit, indeed, marked a pivotal point in New Delhi’s regional outreach efforts. The strategic foreign policy overtures made by India are in alignment with the ongoing geopolitical recalibration that is taking place within most of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, which are increasingly shifting their focus toward establishing robust partnerships with Asian economies, including India.

Strategic consequences of Pakistan’s growing dependence on China - Opinion

Admiral Sunil Lanba

Pakistan's sovereignty is increasingly at risk due to its deepening strategic and economic dependence on China. Initially perceived as a mutually beneficial partnership, the relationship between Pakistan and China has evolved into one marked by significant concessions from Pakistan. Islamabad’s mounting debt from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and granting fishing rights indicate this shift. These developments undermine Pakistan's autonomy and threaten regional stability in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). This analysis explores the implications of these trends, drawing parallels between China's actions in Pakistan and its expansionist strategies in the South China Sea (SCS).

China's Strategic Influence

The CPEC and Territorial Encroachments

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was once hailed as a transformative initiative for Pakistan, promising infrastructure development, job creation, and economic growth. However, more contemporary developments suggest a more ominous reality. China's growing control in areas like the Gwadar SEZ and granting fishing rights to Chinese vessels signal a significant shift in the partnership. These transactions go beyond mere economic deals, reflecting China's growing strategic influence in Pakistan. By securing control over strategically important maritime zones, such as those near Gwadar, China has been able to extend its reach and capabilities into the Arabian Sea.

J-36: Assessing China’s New Generation Combat Aircraft

Rick Joe

On December 26 in the city of Chengdu, China, a new generation, stealthy combat aircraft made by Chengdu Aerospace Corporation (CAC) had its maiden flight. Images and videos emerged in near real time, showing the highly swept flying wing aircraft accompanied by a J-20S twin-seat chase plane. This aircraft generated significant furor on defense tracking internet and news sites, with questions surrounding its role, capability, maturity, and more.

For the community of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) watchers, this aircraft was not unexpected. I have published articles on Chinese next-generation fighter efforts over the last half decade. Indicators over the last year-and-a-half strongly suggested a new generation/sixth-generation air-to-air combat aircraft would emerge rather soon, and these hints accelerated over the past four months, with increasing details on the type of platform to expect.

The PLA watching community’s working designation of this new CAC aircraft is the “J-36,” in reference to its expected tasking as an air-to-air/air superiority platform, with “36” reflecting the visible serial number: 36011. I will refer to the aircraft as “J-36” as well, with the proviso that both its prefix and suffix are not yet definitive (I have previously used the term “J-XD” as a stand-in).

Unexpected Conscience

Cynthia Watson

You do not either have to be a China scholar or an academic of any type to enjoy this easily accessible subject as Suettinger presents it. If you simply want to know one view on how we got to the tensions we currently have with the CCP and the people of China, this is a strong starting place.

Many China skeptics will deny that the Communist Party ever had a conscience. Suettinger indeed discusses in almost 400 page detail (replete with another sixty pages of citations) the cruelties, the lies, the self-justifications, and assorted other repugnant behaviors. It’s seductive to forget that the Party won the Civil War against the Kuomindang, Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalists, because they too engaged in pretty abominable behavior while the dominant rulers for twenty years. Suettinger (nor I) justify the horrors unleashed by leadership against the opposition during this struggle nor, more importantly, against the public caught scraping through horrible conditions.

Suettinger, hardly “soft” on China, delved into archives (before Xi Jinping closed them à la the behavior I discussed yesterday regarding closing virtually any form of transparency under CCP rule), to provide considerable clarity for why Chinese youth were so angry at the leadership’s treatment of this founding figure in the PRC as upon his passing from leadership. Indeed, too often forgotten in the west is that it was Hu’s April 1989 death and resulting Party elder fears of how his memory galvanized students that ultimately led to the 4 June massacre in Tian’anmen; the “goddess of democracy” and student protests followed demands that Hu receive appropriate respect for his role as a reformer and a CCP political denizen.

Inside China’s paramilitary force that could be key in an invasion of Taiwan

Thibault Spirlet

China is preparing its militarized police for kinds of combat that would play a key role in any invasion of Taiwan.

A September report from China Central Television shows what appears to be the People's Armed Police Force, or PAP, simulating attacks from inflatable boats.

Footage and pictures from Chinese state-run outlets show the extent of the combat training and battlefield simulation — blockade breakthroughs, grenade throwing, battlefield rescue, and group tactics in cold, hot, and high-altitude conditions.

This training indicates PAP soldiers "are getting ready" for a takeover of Taiwan, said Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia Engagement at the Defense Priorities think tank in Washington, DC.

Clandestine movement by water would be an essential capability to quell resistance in Taiwan's populated areas near the coast and rivers.

"From my observation, they train hard; they are well equipped and disciplined, and they're given stringent ideological training for the reason that they are probably, in my view, the primary reserve force for section invasion," Goldstein said.

Anti-Submarine Warfare: Doctrine and Capabilities of the PLA Navy

Anushka Saxena

Introduction: A Show of Force at Zhuhai

At the recently concluded Zhuhai Airshow in Guangdong, China, a new unmanned combat vessel of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), the ORCA, made its debut as part of the Asian giant’s naval arsenal. As official sources highlighted, this 500-tonne displacement high-speed stealth unmanned surface combat vessel, equipped with a diesel-electric dual-mode propulsion system, is capable of performing a host of tasks including Beyond-Visual-Range (BVR) fire strike, and air and missile defense. But perhaps what is most interesting, is its reported ability to perform anti-submarine search and strike autonomously. If true, the PLAN may just be ushering in a transformed era for China’s undersea warfare capabilities.

Anti-submarine warfare (ASW) seemed to be at the center of a range of weapons systems displays at Zhuhai. With integrated reconnaissance and strike drones, for example, the display of the Wing Loong-X was noteworthy for its new ASW capabilities. When the WLX was first displayed at the 2022 Airshow, it was referred to as Wing Loong-3, but only its potential to perform reconnaissance, ground strikes, and even communication relay tasks was depicted. This time around, the WLX was displayed as an operational unit, potentially signaling that the technology is now mature and deployment-ready. The weapons pods and the sonar buoy it featured at this Zhuhai indicated that it has the capability to be deployed for ASW. The weapons pods included anti-submarine torpedos the WLX can deploy. Further, commentators suggested on QQ, a Chinese social media platform, that a stack of WLXs can be paired with anti-submarine systems like the KQ-200, the PLAN Air Force’s ASW aircraft, to cover a vast area in a “submarine hunting” scenario.

China's record dividends build pressure on the Yuan

China’s ambitious campaign to revive its flagging stock market has made the yuan an unintended casualty, with record dividend payouts leading to outflows.

Interim dividends paid by Hong Kong-listed Chinese firms are set to reach $12.9 billion between January and March, a record level for the first quarter, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. That comes as fourth quarter levels have already topped $16.2 billion, the most ever for the period and up 47% compared with a year ago.

The dividend bonanza is adding pressure on the Chinese yuan already weighed by a resurgent dollar and the prospect of growing US-China tensions. The firms mostly pay dividends in Hong Kong dollars but earn the majority of their revenues in the yuan, which requires conversion.

The looming outflows will test Beijing’s ability to achieve short-term market stability without compromising longer term goals in the world’s No 2 economy. That’s especially important as policymakers also ramp up efforts to defend the currency currently hovering near one-year lows.

Chinese hackers used broad telco access to geolocate millions of Americans and record phone calls

Rosie Perper

Chinese hackers that gained access to U.S. telecommunications networks in a sweeping cybersecurity breach were able to use their positioning to geolocate millions of individuals and record phone calls at will, deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technology Anne Neuberger told reporters on Friday.

A Chinese hacking group dubbed Salt Typhoon infiltrated U.S. telecommunication providers and used their covert access to steal a trove of Americans’ cell phone records and listen in on the conversations of senior U.S. political figures. POLITICO previously reported that President-elect Donald Trump, Vice President-elect JD Vance and senior Biden administration officials were among the known victims of the hacking campaign.

Investigators say they first detected Salt Typhoon’s activities earlier this year. The FBI announced the U.S. was investigating the hacking campaign in October, after The Wall Street Journal first reported on the breaches a month prior.

Winning the Race: The Case for Counterintelligence against Chinese Espionag

Aesop’s fable, “the Tortoise and the Hare,” famously warns us about the dangers of arrogance and complacency in the face of a determined adversary. Unfortunately, in the modern race for supremacy between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), it appears that American policymakers and executives have failed to heed this warning, bearing disastrous consequences for industries vital to U.S. national security.

Like the hare, the United States had long enjoyed a substantial lead in developing defense-industrial sectors and innovating dual-use technologies. However, Washington has since rested on its laurels and exposed itself to theft through its lax counterintelligence posture. Meanwhile, the PRC — marrying the patience and long-term vision of the fabled tortoise with the remarkable leapfrogging ability enabled by its pervasive industrial espionage — has now caught up and even surpassed the United States across a plethora of key defense and technology sectors. Therefore, if spying and stealing are how the PRC plans to ‘win the race’ in modern strategic competition, the United States can only hope to prevail by investing far more robustly in counterintelligence.

Five possible reasons China's productivity slowed down

Noah Smith

I’m traveling, so here’s a timely repost.

China’s economy is having major problems. Despite the country’s dominance of global manufacturing, its living standards are starting to stagnate at a level far below that of developed countries. China’s growth has slowed down dramatically, from around 6.5% before the pandemic to 4.6% now, and there are credible signs that even that number is seriously overstated.

The piece is very much worth reading in full, especially for its portrait of Xi Jinping’s strategy for responding to the slowdown — basically, doubling down on subsidies for investment in export manufacturing, rather than Keynesian remedies to boost aggregate demand.

As I wrote a week ago, this strategy might make China militarily stronger by forcibly deindustrializing China’s rivals, but it’s unlikely to solve the country’s macroeconomic problems — overcapacity will just worsen deflation, exacerbating the debt burden on China’s households, banks, and companies.

Iran’s Ring of Fire Strategy in Ruins

Joe Varner

Iran’s ring of fire strategy is in tatters thanks to Hamas’ war, and Iran’s nuclear program is likely about to meet its Waterloo, and with it potentially, Iran’s theocratic dictatorship.

Long-standing Iranian grand strategy in the Middle East has been to use a network of proxy militias to do its bidding and to keep its hands clean hoping to avoid retaliation. The Iranian doctrine involved using its proxy militias to destroy Israel in a ‘ring of fire’ and push the U.S. out of the Middle East before it would settle accounts with its Sunni opponents. To that end, Iran armed, trained, and supported Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Syrian regime, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shia militias in Iraq all with the goal of finishing off Israel. Iran used its network of regional militias to become a regional military threat in the Middle East perhaps until it could become a nuclear power to dominate the area and threaten Europe.

October 7th, 2023 was a disaster for Israel with 1200 people killed and more than 251 Israelis taken as hostage to Gaza, but in real terms Hamas surprise assault on Israel and the war that followed has become a strategic disaster for Iran and everyone associated with it. The October 7th terrorist outrage was celebrated in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen Iraq, and most particularly Iran. But the celebration of murder, rape, torture, and animalistic fury was short-lived.

How the Houthis turned their weaknesses into strengths

Ari Heistein

Yemen’s Houthis remain the last component of the Iran-backed “axis of resistance” that is willing and able to launch significant attacks on Israel’s heartland. How has this seemingly ragtag group of Yemeni rebels managed to rule 20 million people, intimidate Gulf neighbors, fire continuously on Israel, and disrupt international shipping in the Red Sea? The answer is that they have resourcefully and adaptably exploited ostensible disadvantages in order to promote their regime’s interests.

First, the Houthis’ extremist religious-political movement has managed to garner little public support. The Haqq Party, Husayn al-Houthi’s attempt at national politics in the 1990s, secured less than 1% of the national vote in all of the elections in which it participated. Rather than abandoning their radical vision, the Houthis then focused on building a supremely loyal network of relatives and radical ideologues. This core of the Houthi regime solidified during the Saada Wars (2006-2010), when the Houthis fought a guerrilla war against Yemen’s government; it is no coincidence that most of the regime’s leaders, now in their late 30s to 40s, were in their ideal fighting years during this insurgency, shaping a hardened leadership.

Despite their continued unpopularity, the Houthi regime is sustained by a relatively small collection of loyalists with familial ties and ideological commitment to the group. This “tyranny of the minority” has withstood immense military, economic, and political pressure without major internal fractures or defections. While disputes among leaders have been reported, they have ultimately been resolved in ways that promote regime cohesion and continuity.

2024: Year of the Drone

Patrick Drennan

Drone boats, drone planes, trolly drones, drone traffic lights and more…

The 2024 word of the year was controversially proposed as either Brat (Collins dictionary), Polarization (Miriam Webster dictionary), or Brain-Rot (Oxford University Press) - however no word has more impact on the modern psych than the word Drone.

The weird and extravagant reactions to drones spotted in the night sky of New Jersey recently reflects that fascination. One member of Congress speculated that they came from outer space.

From drones that can soar through the stratosphere, to rotor drones that hover a few feet above the ground, and submersible drones that glide 50 feet underwater, drones have transformed our lives and modern warfare.

Their impact mainly comes from daily news and internet video images of war footage - particularly the fiery, innovative, and futuristic use of drones in Ukraine.

Cost effective FPV (First Person View), and kamikaze drones excel in reconnaissance, artillery spotting, and direct strikes, proving highly effective at targeting enemy positions…but they have been upgraded for much more than that -

South Africa chairs G20: Ambitious plans, geopolitical woes

David Ehl

Finally, it's South Africa's turn. The country took the G20 chair in December, the last remaining member to hold the presidency.

The G20, formed in 1999, is a group of 19 of the world's largest economies, plus the European Union, that meets regularly to coordinate global policies on trade, health, climate and other issues. The informal forum does not have a permanent secretariat.

After granting the African Union membership in 2023, the G20 will now finally arrive on African soil. South Africa will host around 130 meetings and forums, leading up to the summit of the heads of state and governments in November 2025 in Johannesburg.

G20 premiere on African soil

Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, chief executive for the South African Institute of International Affairs, told DW that South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will likely continue working on the goals that previous presidencies have outlined.

Germany 2025: What political challenges lie ahead?

Jens Thurau

The Magdeburg Christmas market attack — and the heated political atmosphere that took hold in Germany as a result — have stressed how central the issues of domestic security and extremism will be for the next German government.

But other topics remain important as well. How does a government combat irregular immigration while boosting skilled immigration? And how does it safeguard against cyberattacks, uphold the rule of law and strengthen democracy against enemies within and without? These are some of the major challenges that the next German government will face in 2025, regardless of which party will be at the helm.

And yet, if you ask some Bundestag members, all of these challenges must first be pushed to the sidelines to address the crisis facing the country's economy. Flagship German companies like Volkswagen are in deep trouble, people are worried about their jobs and are struggling with rising prices and rents.

High energy prices and shortage of skilled workers

Marco Wanderwitz of the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) was the federal commissioner for the eastern German states until 2021, and told DW: "The biggest problem we have in this country right now is that our economy is stuttering. And that is really affecting the foundations and the future. The big problem is that we have a loss of confidence in politics among economic leaders."

Europe’s emerging centers of power

Europe is in for a turbulent time. The reelection of Donald Trump as U.S. president is yet another shock, after the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine. His policies toward NATO and tariffs will cause more instability in a continent where the political and policy establishment is already staggering.

As the new power balance reasserts itself, expect new poles of influence to emerge. We asked a group of top thinkers — historians and political scientists with specialties ranging from the medieval period to the present day — to share their predictions for what those might be.

Desmond Dinan: The return of Warsaw

Poland’s emergence as an EU power center is partly due to the demise of the traditional Franco-German pillar and the increasing importance of frontline countries following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It also owes much to its change of government in 2023 and to Donald Tusk’s return as prime minister.

Trump Can’t Bully the Entire World

Stephen M. Walt

In books and movies, it’s easy to predict what will happen to a bully. They will torment the hero for a while, but eventually someone will stand up to them, expose their weaknesses, and deliver their comeuppance. You’ve seen it repeatedly: Harry Potter humiliates Draco Malfoy and defeats Voldemort; Marty McFly bests Biff not once but thrice; Cinderella gets the handsome Prince Charming and her mean stepsisters get nothing; Tom Brown triumphs over Flashman, Elizabeth Bennet defies Lady Catherine de Bourgh and wins Mr. Darcy’s love. This familiar plotline is a comforting reminder that good eventually triumphs over evil.

The problem is, alas, that real life isn’t a book or a Hollywood movie. Indeed, 2024 has been a damn good year for bullies. Russian President Vladimir Putin is winning in Ukraine, albeit at a frightful cost. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s illiberal brand of populism is on a roll in Europe. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still in power in Israel, despite exposing his country to Hamas’s attack in October 2023, presiding over a genocidal campaign that has taken tens of thousands of innocent Palestinian lives, and an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court. And U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is returning to the White House, with the world’s richest bully—Elon Musk—at his side (for now).

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