30 December 2024

Taliban Hint At Shielding Anti-Pakistan Militants In Afghanistan As ‘Guests’

Ayaz Gul

A senior Taliban leader in Afghanistan has indicated that they will continue to provide refuge to anti-Pakistan militants, describing them as “guests” under the country’s traditions.

Taliban Information Minister Khairullah Khairkhwa made the rare remarks just days after the Pakistani military reportedly conducted airstrikes against suspected terrorist locations in an eastern Afghan border province.

The Taliban claimed that Tuesday’s attack in Paktika resulted in the deaths of nearly 50 civilians, predominantly refugees from Pakistan. While the claims could not be verified from independent sources, the United Nations said that it had “received credible reports” from the remote Afghan province that dozens of civilians, including women and children, were killed in the Pakistani airstrikes.

Islamabad has refrained from publicly acknowledging the cross-border strikes, but Pakistani security officials anonymously confirmed and told reporters that the military action had targeted and destroyed several “terrorist hideouts” of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an outlawed group engaged in lethal attacks against Pakistan. Several key TTP commanders were also said to be among more than a dozen militants killed.

Afghanistan: Now It Can Be Told, After All The Harm Has Been Done – OpEd

Norman Solomon

This week, the New York Times reported that the U.S. government made war in Afghanistan while helping to “recruit, train and pay for lawless bands of militias that pillaged homes and laid waste to entire communities.” Those militias “tortured civilians, kidnapped for ransom, massacred dozens in vendetta killings and razed entire villages, sowing more than a decade of hatred toward the Afghan government and its American allies.”

Written by a former Kabul bureau chief for the Times, the article appeared under a headline saying that “U.S.-backed militias” in Afghanistan were “worse than the Taliban.”

Now they tell us.

The new reporting made me think of a chapter in my book War Made Invisible titled “Now It Can Be Told.” Here’s an excerpt:

Timing is crucial in media and politics — and never more so than when war is at stake. It’s completely unsatisfactory for journalists to toe the war line for years and then finally report, in effect: Now it can be told — years too late.

Chinese Soft Power Strategy In Bangladesh – Analysis

Dr. Saleh Shahriar

Introduction

What are the key elements of the Chinese ‘soft power’ strategy in Bangladesh? How has China’s soft power strategy influenced Bangladesh’s economic, social and cultural landscape? These questions are addressed in this article.

On March 2, 2023, Brand Finance – the world’s most famous consultancy agency – published a report on Global Soft Power Index (GSPIS) in London which examined the brands of 121 nation-states. The report reveals that among the top 20, Western countries are much ahead in pursuing soft power compared to South Asian or African countries. Soft power is a term used in international relations to describe a country’s ability to influence others through cultural appeal, values, and diplomacy rather than coercion or force.

Coined by political scientist Joseph Nye in the late 1980s, soft power contrasts with “hard power”, which involves military might and economic sanctions. Soft power involves the power of attraction in international politics. Nye developed the concept of soft power in a Cold War context. The concept of soft power refers to the ability to achieve desired outcomes through attraction rather than coercion or monetary incentives. Since the end of the Cold War, the concept of soft power has evolved over time into a broader concept.

China launches new amphibious assault ship in a race to rival US military

Brad Lendon and Nectar Gan

China has launched its first next-generation amphibious assault ship, adding a powerful cutting-edge warship to the country’s fast-expanding navy as it races to rival the military power of the United States.

The Type 076 amphibious assault ship entered the water on Friday at a launch ceremony at a shipyard in Shanghai, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) said in a statement.

Named Sichuan after a southwestern Chinese province, the independently developed ship is hailed as a “key asset” for advancing the Navy’s transformation and enhancing its long-range operational capabilities, according to the statement.

China, which already boasts the largest naval force in the world, is building carriers and large warships at a staggering pace as it seeks to project power far beyond its shores and catch up to the military supremacy of the US.

With a full-load displacement of over 40,000 tons, the Type 076 ranks among the world’s largest amphibious assault ships, featuring a twin-island superstructure and a full-length flight deck, according to the PLAN.

Dorito in the Sky: Unpacking China’s Radical New Stealth Fighter

Kyle Mizokami

Stealth Bomber or Fighter? Decoding the Secrets of China’s New Warplane

This afternoon, video and images of a brand-new Chinese fighter jet hit social media. While details are still sketchy, the Dorito-shaped aircraft is China’s most advanced manned aircraft design. Thanks to the netizens who posted images and clips to social media, we can infer a few things about its role and capabilities.

Still, other details will likely remain a mystery for months, if not years.

What We Know About China’s New 6th-Generation Fighter (Or Bomber?)

In a characteristically low-key release, China revealed a new, previously undisclosed fighter jet design to the world by flying it over an urban area, allowing citizens below to record video and feed clips into the never-ending social media stream.

For example, the 2010 reveal of the J-20 “Mighty Dragon” fighter involved flying it over a Chengdu airfield, whereupon aviation enthusiasts promptly photographed it.

China’s New Information Support Force: Military Lessons from Ukraine

Toomas Hanso

Over two years into Russia’s war against Ukraine, the People’s Liberation Army announced a structural change: the Strategic Support Force (SSF) was disbanded, and the new Information Support Force (ISF) was launched, signalling yet another step forward in the PLA’s push for informationisation.

This analysis examines the extent to which the creation of the ISF is linked to lessons that Beijing has learnt from the Russian operations in Ukraine. A strong correlation is suggested by two factors: multiple Russian Network Information Systems (NIS) failures and the temporally coinciding publications by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and PLA, with the language identical to that used during the ISF’s launch event. This analysis further identifies four key areas where the Russian military made NIS-related mistakes, thereby outlining the lessons that China could have derived: namely, in the areas of general communications, Command, Control, Communications, and Information (C3I), cyberspace operations, and Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR).

A thorough and critical assessment of military conflicts around the world and subsequent, corresponding changes to the PLA can provide a window into Chinese military thinking, as well as hint at where PLA capabilities are strong and where they are lacking. As PLA exercises around Taiwan continue to grow in frequency and threaten the status quo, the importance of making such observations cannot be overstated in analysing future conflicts and anticipating their outcomes.

The Panama Canal: Hostage to the US-China Trade War?

Allison Fedirka

In November 1906, Theodore Roosevelt became the first sitting U.S. president to make a diplomatic visit outside the continental United States, sailing to Panama to view the construction of the Panama Canal. In September 1977, President Jimmy Carter signed a treaty that would ultimately give Panama full control and operation over the canal in 2000. And in December 2025, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump threatened to retake the canal from Panama. The chances of this happening are slim, of course. But like most political rhetoric, his comments denote larger goals and aspirations – in this case, Trump’s domestic agenda, which likely includes a trade war with China. The U.S.-Panama relationship is merely a hostage to that agenda.

Control over the Panama Canal gave Washington a valuable source of revenue and immense geopolitical influence. Since the 1500s, explorers and entrepreneurs had dreamed of a path that would drastically cut the time and resources required to cross from one ocean to the other: Sea transit between the U.S. east and west coasts was a weekslong, 13,000-mile journey. Alfred Thayer Mahan, the naval and geopolitical writer, knew that U.S. control of the Central American isthmus, and the possibility of a trans-isthmus canal, would be pivotal for the projection of U.S. military and commercial power. Presidents Ulysses S. Grant and Theodore Roosevelt, both former military officers, were keenly aware of the isthmus’s strategic value. Grant commissioned a series of expedition surveys to identify possible locations and assess construction feasibility. Roosevelt later oversaw the creation of the U.S. Great White Fleet and canal construction.

National Standard of the People’s Republic of China: Cybersecurity Technology – Basic Safety Requirements for Generative Artificial Intelligence Services (Draft for Feedback)


1. Scope

This document2 specifies the basic safety requirements for generative artificial intelligence (AI) services, including training data safety, model safety, and safety measures, and provides safety assessment requirements.

This document applies to service providers carrying out safety assessments, and also provides the relevant main oversight department (主管部门) a reference.

2. Normative Reference Documents

The contents of the following documents, through normative references in this text, constitute indispensable provisions of this document. Among them, for dated references, only the edition corresponding to that date applies to this document. For undated references, the latest edition (including all amendments) applies to this document.

Information security technology terminology GB/T 25069-2022

3. Terminology and Definitions

The terms and definitions defined in GB/T 25069-2022 and listed below apply to this document.

3.1 Generative Artificial Intelligence Services

The use of generative AI technology to provide text, graphics, audio, video, and other content generation services to the public.

The Near Enemy: China’s Subnational Reach Into the United States

Emily de La Bruyère & Nathan Picarsic

Introduction

In 2015, former U.S. ambassador to Iceland and senior aide to President George H.W. Bush, Sig Rogich founded the US-China Transpacific Foundation (UCTPF). A Nevada-based 501(c)(3) non-profit, UCTPF describes its mission as one to “promote the mutual interests of both the United States and China through political, cultural and educational exchanges.”2 Rogich is an influential political leader with experience at both the local and national levels in the United States.3 He worked in a senior capacity for the presidential campaigns of Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush, and John McCain, as well as the congressional, gubernatorial, and state political races of Senators Harry Reid and Dean Heller, Congressmen Joe Heck and Jon Porter, and Governors Paul Laxalt, Kenny Guinn, and Jim Gibbons. He served as the national finance chair for the Republican Governor’s Association. He is alternately described as a “kingmaker” of Nevada politics, “Republican czar,” and Las Vegas’s “most powerful political operative.”4

UCTPF has organized “track two” dialogues between key U.S. and Chinese players.5 UCTPF has also been involved in the organization of delegations of U.S. national and subnational government leaders to China, as well as exchanges between them and Chinese government entities in the United States.6 Rogich has a track record of commenting publicly on U.S.-China relations, including in local news outlets. In a 2019 interview with the Nevada Newsmakers political talk show, he suggested that the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong were sparked by paid “thugs” and that elements of the narrative about China’s detention camps in Xinjiang potentially misinterpret Beijing’s response to a terrorist threat.7

The Drones of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham: The Development and Use of UAS in Syria

Broderick McDonald

The lightning offensive which toppled the Assad regime and captured Damascus in less than two weeks has shocked observers both inside and outside Syria. While the rapid progress of the offensive was primarily the result of the professionalisation of the main rebel force and the inherent weakness of the regime and its allies, new advanced drones and specialised units played important roles in bolstering the advance. This Insight examines the development and strategic use of these drones by the largest and most powerful rebel force in Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

The new wave of drones deployed by HTS during the offensive included both short-range kamikaze FPV drones and larger long-range rocket-propelled UAVs that are believed to travel up to 50km and carry significantly largely payloads. These kamikaze FPV drones enabled HTS and its allies to accurately strike tanks, artillery positions, and individuals behind enemy lines and were akin to similar models used in Ukraine and other conflicts. The larger rocket-propelled UAVs enabled the group to reach far behind enemy lines and destroy regime command centres and other hardened targets with larger payloads than was previously possible. While other rebel groups have made use of FPV drones, including the Syrian National Army (SNA), which also participated in the recent offensive, none matched the sophistication of HTS. The use of armed consumer drones is not new to Syria, which saw the first widespread use of them by ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra during the early days of the civil war. However, the variation and capabilities of the drones used have become more sophisticated in the past five years. What began as the modification of primarily consumer off-the-shelf drones used to drop grenades and other small explosives has expanded significantly.

The Iranian Regime Is Crumbling – Time for Max Pressure

Robert Harward

The Iranian empire is crumbling. Just three months ago, Iran sat astride the Middle East, effectively controlling at least four Arab capitals and multiple well-armed proxy forces. Now, it has lost Syria and Lebanon while Hamas and Hezbollah have been decimated. This Israeli success presents the incoming Trump administration with a historic opportunity to dislodge other parts of the region from Iran’s rapacious grasp.

As impressive as Iran’s weakening has been, the United States cannot afford to declare mission accomplished and rest on Israel’s laurels. It needs a concerted and comprehensive strategy that synchronizes all elements of American power and marshals international support to finish the job that Israel began, ensuring the collapse of the Islamic Republic.

Diplomatically, Iran must be isolated and U.S. partners united. Europeans—having seen Tehran’s thugs beat up and kill women for daring to bare their hair, witnessed the evolution of drone warfare and watched Russia launch long range ballistic missiles into Ukrainian civilians—are finally willing to get tough on Iran. By convincing Berlin, Paris, and London to invoke “snapback,” the United States can get United Nations sanctions reimposed on Iran, without giving Russia and China a chance to veto them. But it will have to act quickly, this legal tool and the sanctions it can bring to bear, expire in October 2025.

From Sudan to the Sahel, War Spreads

Sasha Polakow-Suransky

Throughout 2024, many of Africa’s crises worsened: Sudan’s civil war escalated, tensions between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo grew, and militants in the Sahel continued to spread south toward coastal states.

In Sudan, fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the rebel Rapid Support Forces has not abated. Sudanese writers have contributed hard-hitting arguments to FP since the war began in April 2023, and this year, the conflict continued to take a horrendous toll on civilians, exacerbating the mass refugee crisis.

In eastern Congo, near the border with Rwanda, clashes between Congolese troops and M23 rebels—widely considered to be a Rwandan proxy—have escalated, leading some to call on the United States to intervene before it’s too late. This is a war that is not only being fought on the battlefield; increasingly, disinformation on social media is fomenting violence in Congo and further afield.

Hatred-filled Facebook posts have been linked to violence in Ethiopia’s civil war, and advances in artificial intelligence could make social media much more dangerous in conflicts across the continent—especially because of the dearth of content moderation in African languages in which hate speech and disinformation are spread.

The New Gods of Weather Can Make Rain on Demand—or So They Want You to Believe

Amit Katwala

In the skies over Al Ain, in the United Arab Emirates, pilot Mark Newman waits for the signal. When it comes, he flicks a few silver switches on a panel by his leg, twists two black dials, then punches a red button labeled FIRE.

A slender canister mounted on the wing of his small propeller plane pops open, releasing a plume of fine white dust. That dust—actually ordinary table salt coated in a nanoscale layer of titanium oxide—will be carried aloft on updrafts of warm air, bearing it into the heart of the fluffy convective clouds that form in this part of the UAE, where the many-shaded sands of Abu Dhabi meet the mountains on the border with Oman. It will, in theory at least, attract water molecules, forming small droplets that will collide and coalesce with other droplets until they grow big enough for gravity to pull them out of the sky as rain.

This is cloud seeding. It’s one of hundreds of missions that Newman and his fellow pilots will fly this year as part of the UAE’s ambitious, decade-long attempt to increase rainfall in its desert lands. Sitting next to him in the copilot’s seat, I can see red earth stretching to the horizon. The only water in sight is the swimming pool of a luxury hotel, perched on the side of a mountain below a sheikh’s palace, shimmering like a jewel.


Trump’s Border Czar Says Military Bases Could Aid Deportation Effort

Tarini Parti and Michelle Hackman

Donald Trump’s team is looking at using military bases to detain migrants and military planes to boost deportations, the president-elect’s incoming border czar Tom Homan said.

“It’s something that’s certainly on the table,” Homan said Friday in a wide-ranging interview, adding that specific plans haven’t been drawn up yet. “We’re waiting to see what Congress is going to give us for funding.”

U.S. To Send $1.25 Billion in Weapons to Ukraine

Lolita C. Baldor & Matthew Lee

The United States is expected to announce that it will send $1.25 billion in military assistance to Ukraine, U.S. officials said Friday, as the Biden administration pushes to get as much aid to Kyiv as possible before leaving office on Jan. 20.

The large package of aid includes a significant amount of munitions, including for the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems and the HAWK air defense system. It also will provide Stinger missiles and 155 mm- and 105 mm artillery rounds, officials said.

The officials, who said they expect the announcement to be made on Monday, spoke on condition of anonymity to provide details not yet made public.

The new aid comes as Russia has launched a barrage of attacks against Ukraine’s power facilities in recent days, although Ukraine has said it intercepted a significant number of the missiles and drones. Russian and Ukrainian forces are also still in a bitter battle around the Russian border region of Kursk, where Moscow has sent thousands of North Korean troops to help reclaim territory taken by Ukraine.

US Navy takes delivery of SSN 797 Virginia-class attack submarine


The latest Virginia-class attack submarine, SSN 797, has been officially handed over to the US Navy, representing the 12th battle force ship delivered this year.

Constructed through a partnership between General Dynamics Electric Boat and HII-Newport News Shipbuilding, this submarine is the 24th of its class and the 13th delivered by Electric Boat.

The transition marks the builder’s formal transfer of the vessel to the Navy, which will now undergo extensive testing and trials prior to its commissioning for active service.


Christened by American literacy advocate and politician Christie Vilsack in Groton, Connecticut, in 2023, the latest submarine is scheduled for commissioning in April 2025.

The Iowa is the sixth submarine of the ten VCS Block IV-configured attack submarines and the first submarine to bear the name of the Hawkeye State.

The name, USS Iowa, has previously been used for vessels such as the USS Iowa (BB 61), a battleship commissioned in 1943 that saw service during World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War.

DARPA and US Navy Achieve Milestone in Autonomous Naval Refueling


According to information published by the US DoD on December 19, 2024, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has completed a groundbreaking automated fueling-at-sea (FAS) test under its No Manning Required Ship (NOMARS) program. This achievement marks a critical step forward in enabling unmanned surface vessels (USVs) to operate autonomously over extended durations without requiring human presence aboard the receiving vessel.

The NOMARS program is developing USVs that can function independently, eliminating the need for crew accommodations or safety provisions onboard. This recent test was conducted with support from the U.S. Navy’s PMS-406 (Unmanned Maritime Systems Program Office) and USV Squadron 1 (USVRON-1) using two experimental USVs: Ranger and Mariner.

Fueling USVs at sea poses unique challenges, as current methods require personnel to handle lines and hoses. These constraints complicate USV design and expose crew members to risks when transferring personnel during adverse sea conditions. The NOMARS program addresses these challenges by implementing a refueling approach that keeps humans aboard the refueling vessel while automating operations on the USV.


Collaborative Platforms and Contested MALE UAVs

Douglas Barrie, Giorgio Di Mizio, Fabian Hinz & Ester Sabatino

Uninhabited combat air systems have, in one guise or another, appeared on the brink of service entry for more than two decades, but to date they have never quite transitioned from a developmental to an operational capability. This may be about to change, along with considerations about the roles and the kinds of platforms to be pursued. This paper will use ‘uninhabited combat air system’ generically as a broad term, while ‘uninhabited combat air vehicle’ (UCAV) is used to reflect specific projects or national usage of the language.

The initial UCAV concepts of the late 1990s and early 2000s broadly resembled a crewed combat aircraft, minus the crew, and were envisaged to perform the same or similar roles. To some extent, this still holds true and the term ‘UCAV’ remains in circulation. But the UCAV idea more recently has also been broken down into capability families, such as the United States’ Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA); Australia’s and the United Kingdom’s Autonomous Collaborative Platform (ACP); and the planned French–German–Spanish remote carriers (RCs), which have also fulfilled envisaged UCAV roles for some countries. As these names suggest, these families are seen as operating in concert with, or in some cases being operated from, crewed combat aircraft in executing a mission or combat task.

Several US allies are also pushing to introduce uninhabited combat air systems into service around the end of this decade. This paper provides a snapshot of developments in Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Sweden, Turkiye and the UK as each country explores its needs and considers requirements.

Russian Decoy Drones that Depend on Western Parts Pose a Great Challenge to Ukrainian Defenses

Igor Anokhin and Spencer Faragasso

Russia has developed and deployed several types of decoy drones to assist missile and drone strikes on Ukraine. This report discusses two of those decoy drones, the Gerbera (also known as Gerber) and the Parody (also known as Parodiya) UAVs that mimic the Shahed 136 and other drone systems. Both of these drones can be mass produced quickly and are built from simple materials like plywood, foam, and a few electronics, making them inexpensive compared to their more costly counterparts.

Ukraine has become increasingly proficient at identifying, tracking, and intercepting Russian airborne platforms, like missiles and drones. To increase the effectiveness of Russian barrages, these decoy drones are launched in large numbers alongside missiles and attack drones, like the Shahed 136 and Lancet-3, to overwhelm and confuse Ukrainian defenses to draw anti-aircraft fire on the decoys, allowing other weapons to reach their targets. Ukrainian defenders can never be entirely certain that an incoming drone does not carry an explosive warhead, forcing them to expend valuable munitions intercepting these drones. Because Ukraine has limited stockpiles of interceptor missiles, anti-aircraft artillery ammunition, and hunter-killer-drones, deploying decoy drones is a viable strategy to wear down Ukrainian defenders. Using decoy drones can also help Russian forces identify where Ukraine has positioned anti-aircraft defenses, radar, and electronic warfare systems, and target those in subsequent attacks.

Advanced US air-defence system used for first time in Israel

Tony Diver

A US missile interception system was used in Israel on Friday for the first time since the Oct 7 attack.

The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, known as THAAD, was deployed to intercept a projectile from Yemen on Friday morning, sources told the Reuters news agency.

Israel struck multiple targets linked to the Iran-aligned Houthi movement in Yemen on Thursday, including Sanaa International Airport, with Houthi media claiming that at least six people were killed.

Houthis have repeatedly fired drones and missiles towards Israel in what they describe as acts of solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

One such strike prompted the deployment of the THAAD battery on Friday, which was operated by US troops in Israel.

Joe Biden’s decision to station the THAAD in Israel in late October came in response to an Iranian strike on Oct 1.

The decision marked a significant escalation of US support for Israel, and the first deployment of standing US troops on the ground since the conflict between Israel and Hamas began a year earlier.


Trump rethinks firing Joint Chiefs chairman after one-on-one meeting, sources say

Courtney Kube and Carol E. Lee

A meeting between President-elect Donald Trump and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Air Force Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., in a luxury box at the Army-Navy football game last weekend may have delayed Trump’s plans to fire Brown, according to two people with knowledge of the conversation.

For months, Trump and his close associates have vowed to immediately fire U.S. military leaders whom they deem too focused on diversity initiatives, often referring to Brown specifically. But the meeting went well, according to the two people with knowledge of the conversation.

Trump and Brown met during the second quarter of the annual military grudge match at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland, on Saturday, the two people said. Trump and Brown spoke one-on-one for about 20 minutes in the owner’s box.

They got along well, and Trump is “changing his tone” on Brown, the two people said, and it now appears Trump will not fire him right away.

This Was the Year Elon Musk Took Over Politics

Vittoria Elliot

Donald Trump may be the next president, but the person who defined the 2024 election was never even a candidate. Centibillionaire Elon Musk all but shut down the US government via X post before Trump, behind whom Musk threw his full support, was even in office. How the political system can adapt to such a figure is unclear.

What is clear is that Musk’s particular blend of superwealth, celebrity, and influence in the world of the Silicon Valley has already made him a key player in shaping the incoming second Trump administration and that his use of X to support Trump’s bid for leadership of the free world is a key component of his power.

“I think Musk is very similar to Trump,” says João Vieira Magalhaes, assistant professor of media, politics, and democracy at the University of Groningen. “He really turned Twitter into a political tool.”

Over the course of the campaign, Musk became one of Trump’s most significant supporters. After endorsing Trump following the assassination attempt against him in Butler, Pennsylvania, Musk pledged to donate $45 million a month to America PAC, a pro-Trump political action committee. By the election, America PAC had shelled out nearly $200 million in support of the Trump campaign, making Musk, its primary funder, one of Trump’s biggest financial backers. In addition to helping bankroll Trump’s bid for the presidency, Musk hit the campaign trail himself, joining Trump at a rally and crisscrossing the key swing state of Pennsylvania to host a series of town halls in support of the former president.

Technology to Secure the AI Chip Supply Chain: A Working Paper

Tim Fist, Tao Burga and Vivek Chilukuri

Introduction

Advanced artificial intelligence (AI) systems, built and deployed with specialized chips, show vast potential to drive economic growth and scientific progress. However, U.S. policymakers are increasingly concerned about the dual-use potential of AI capabilities. Irresponsible actors could use advanced AI systems to support cyberattacks, biological weapons design, and mass surveillance.6 Securing the supply chain for AI chips is therefore vital for mitigating risks to U.S. national security.

This logic has spurred moves to restrict foreign actors, especially China, from accessing American AI technology. In October 2022, the U.S. Department of Commerce imposed sweeping export restrictions on AI chips and associated hardware to China. These were tightened in October 2023 to address perceived shortcomings but added greater burdens on U.S. firms, including requiring permission to export certain consumer graphics processing units (GPUs) and extending an export license requirement to dozens of additional countries suspected of diverting AI chips to China.7 Recently, the controls were expanded again, this time affecting all chips using advanced high-bandwidth memory.8 Now, concerns about China’s rapid catch-up to U.S. AI capabilities are prompting U.S. policymakers to consider further export restrictions, such as:9
  • Further expanding the use of the Foreign Direct Product Rule, a sweeping regulation to prevent companies abroad from selling products using American components, tools, and software to Chinese chipmaking companies10
  • Limiting China’s access to U.S. cloud computing services through the bipartisan Remote Access Security Act11
  • Further expanding the applicable scope of “deemed exports,” which restrict the transfer of technology or source code to foreign nationals who are in the United States12

Preparing for Next-Generation Information Warfare with Generative AI

Eleonore Pauwels

AI is making information warfare more powerful and more accessible. Generative AI combined with data capture provides new techniques to industrialize the offensive use of disinformation. In addition, the integration of generative AI with other powerful technologies complexifies the potential of information warfare. What is at stake is the weaponization of dual-use knowledge itself. Generative AI is already learning to democratize military and civilian expertise in technological domains as complex as AI, neuro-, nano- and biotechnology. Such capacity will provide both state and non-state actors with access to knowledge and mentorship related to impactful technologies. This diffusion of power will change the nature of information and physical warfare, increasing dual-use knowledge asymmetries between threat actors in conflicts. There is an urgent need to prepare for misuse scenarios that harness technological convergence. New converging risks will bring collective security challenges that are not well understood or anticipated globally.

The Real Stakes of the AI Race

Reva Goujon

Asense that global technology competition is becoming a zero-sum game, and that the remainder of the twenty-first century will be made in the winner’s image, pervades in Washington, Beijing, and boardrooms worldwide. This angst feeds ambitious industrial policies, precautionary regulations, and multibillion-dollar investments. Yet even as governments and private industry race for supremacy in artificial intelligence, none of them possess a clear vision of what “winning” looks like or what geopolitical returns their investments will yield.

Much more than computing dominance is at stake; the struggle for AI primacy between the United States, China, middle powers, and Big Tech is fundamentally a competition over whose vision of the world order will reign supreme. For the United States, AI is a new frontier on which it must maintain its global technological dominance. As U.S. policymakers deploy a regulatory arsenal to cripple China’s technology development and stay ahead, China is mobilizing the power of the state to close the gap. At the same time, middle powers trying to avoid coming under the shadow of either superpower, along with tech companies devoted to the global diffusion of technology through open markets, see AI development paving the path to a multipolar world.