13 December 2024

Redefining India’s Public Expenditure for Climate Resilience - Opinion

Pavittarbir Saggu

When Wallace S. Broecker first coined the term global warming in 1975, it was regarded as a distant challenge. Decades later, climate change is no longer a hypothetical concern but a lived reality, with its disruptive impacts felt globally. While nations work to mitigate emissions, existing changes to the climate are already causing widespread devastation. Among the most vulnerable are India and the Global South, given their dense populations and geographic diversity. Although India has taken significant steps toward a green transition, the focus remains heavily skewed towards climate mitigation rather than adaptation. This imbalance is further exacerbated by private sector hesitancy to invest in adaptation projects, placing the onus squarely on government-led public expenditure to address these pressing needs.

India’s public investments in climate initiatives have predominantly centered on mitigation, leaving adaptation measures underfunded. For instance, the National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change (NAFCC), set up to support adaptation projects, has experienced a steady decline in funding. Allocations fell from INR 115.36 crore in 2017-18 to a mere INR 34 crore in 2022-23. Simultaneously, India’s energy transition is advancing rapidly, with the country ranking 63rd on the World Economic Forum’s Energy Transition Index and moving steadily toward its 2030 goal of 500 GW renewable energy capacity.


Myanmar: Rebels Capture Last Military Post On Bangladesh Border


Ethnic minority insurgents have captured the last Myanmar military position on the border with Bangladesh after its defenders, including pro-junta militiamen from the mostly Muslim Rohingya community, abandoned the post and fled, the rebel group and residents said.

The Arakan Army, or AA, which is fighting for self-determination in Rakhine state, seized the military stronghold known as Border Guard Post No. 5 near the town of Maungdaw on Sunday, the group said.

“The Arakan army successfully captured and neutralized the last remaining outpost … in the Maungdaw region,” it said in a statement.

Junta forces and members of Rohingya militia raised by the junta to battle the AA were trying to flee across the Naf River, which forms the border with Bangladesh, “using motorboats and canoes” and launching attacks as they did so, the AA said.

“Clashes are still occurring … Therefore, due to military necessities and public security concerns, all river transportation in the Naf River will be indefinitely suspended,” the group said.

Residents of Maungdaw said they were worried about the possibility of a navy boat operating offshore opening fire in retaliation for the AA’s capture of the position.

China Compels Myanmar Rebel Groups To Negotiate With Junta – OpEd

Subir Bhaumik

China has forced two powerful armed rebel groups in north Myanmar to start negotiations with the Burmese military junta and call off the 1027 offensive they started October last year.

Experts say this might well be the most decisive Chinese intervention to stop a conflict in its neighborhood and might well set the tenor for a more proactive future policy on such issues.

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDDA), which represents ethnic Kokangs, recently agreed to engage in talks with the State Administrative Council (SAC) under Chinese mediation.

This is the second Three Brotherhood Alliance member to offer to negotiate to the junta after the Ta’ang National Liberation Army made a similar move last week. The MNDAA, the TNLA and the Arakan Army are part of the three-group Brotherhood Alliance which started the 1027 offensive in October last year.


Nvidia is facing an antitrust investigation in China

Rocio Fabbro

The country’s State Administration for Market Regulation has launched a probe into whether Nvidia’s acquisition of Israeli chip designer Mellanox Technologies violated anti-monopoly laws, according to a report from China Central Television on Monday.

Shares of Nvidia fell nearly 2% in pre-market trading on Monday.

The leading artificial intelligence chipmaker bought Mellanox for $6.9 billion in 2020 after receiving conditional approval from Chinese authorities. Conditions included requirements that Nvidia and Mellanox not bundle or tie together products, continue to supply on fair terms, and ensure that chips from Chinese manufacturers worked with the technology.

Other requirements were aimed at maintaining independence between the two firms, and lessening any potential impacts of export controls amid the trade war between the U.S. and China that began in 2018 under the first Trump administration.

This comes as chip trade tensions between the two economic superpowers continue to escalate. Last week, the Department of Commerce introduced more restrictions on the sale of high-bandwidth memory and chipmaking tools to China, including tools produced by U.S. companies abroad.

How Assad’s Fall Threatens Russia’s Military Influence In Syria, And Across The Region – Analysis

Mike Eckel

Nine years ago, a caravan of hulking military cargo planes and aging naval ships began shuttling back and forth from Russian bases depositing a massive expeditionary military force to western Syria, cementing Russia’s muscular presence in the Middle East and ultimately saving the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Assad is now gone, the fate of those bases are now jeopardy, and the question of Russia’s entire Middle East strategy is now very much up in the air.

The fall of the Assad regime this past weekend was a tectonic event, reverberating across the entire Middle East and further. The Kremlin’s 2015 Syria intervention, which scrambled the regional calculus, is now being scrambled yet again as Moscow tries to figure out what to do next.

As of December 9, there were no confirmed signs of any Russian pullout from Syria. An unnamed Kremlin official told the TASS state news agency that Russia had reached an agreement to ensure the safety of its military assets in Syria. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment to reporters.

Assad’s Fall Shows Russia, Iran, and Hamas Made a Bad Bet

Hal Brands

A great many actors had a hand in the fall of Syria’s dictator, Bashar al-Assad: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamist group that led the offensive; Turkey, which nurtured and supported HTS; the myriad Syrian groups and people who gave a hated tyrant a final push. But Assad’s fall was also the work of a dead man, Yahya Sinwar.

When Sinwar ordered Hamas’s attack on Israel in October 2023, he meant to revolutionize the Middle East. Today, the region is being remade, just not as Sinwar intended: An astonishingly successful Israeli offensive has left Hamas and the rest of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” in ruins, and has now claimed Assad as its latest victim.

The Hamas fighters who streamed into Israel on Oct. 7 were after more than an orgy of rape, kidnapping and murder. They also sought to shatter Israel’s security and start a multi-front war that would destroy the Jewish state.

For a time, it seemed to be working. Israel was sucked into a grinding, globally unpopular war in Gaza. Its northern territory was depopulated because of attacks by Lebanese Hezbollah. The Houthis of Yemen bankrupted the Israeli port of Eilat through attacks on Red Sea shipping. Iran fired missiles and drones at Israeli cities.

This was all seen, by many Israelis, as an existential challenge. But by revealing Israeli weaknesses, Sinwar ended up unleashing Israeli strengths.

The Middle East’s Dangerous New Normal

Suzanne Maloney

On October 3, 2023, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addressed a large crowd of government officials and international visitors in Tehran. As he approached his conclusion, Khamenei’s remarks turned to Israel—the Islamic Republic’s self-proclaimed nemesis. Invoking a verse from the Koran, Khamenei insisted that the Jewish state would “die of [its] rage.” He reminded the audience that the Iranian theocracy’s founder, Ruhollah Khomeini, had described Israel as a cancer. And he ended his speech with a prediction: “This cancer will definitely be eradicated, God willing, at the hands of the Palestinian people and the resistance forces throughout the region.”

Four days later, sirens sounded as rockets flew out of Gaza and into southern Israel. More than 1,000 Palestinian militants followed, breaching the border barricade on motorcycles and jeeps, swarming from boats on the sea, and paragliding in from the air. In less than 24 hours, the militants killed 1,180 Israelis and captured 251 more. The massacre committed by Hamas and other Palestinian fighters was the deadliest act of anti-Jewish violence since the Holocaust. It precipitated a ferocious Israeli military response that has wiped out Hamas’s leadership and eliminated thousands of the group’s fighters, while also killing tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians and devastating Gaza’s infrastructure.

The Assads Were Fighting the Wrong War

Benjamin Byman

The quick collapse of the Assad regime in Syria over the weekend is at least in part a testament to the improved warfighting skills of the rebel forces. In the run-up to the latest offensive, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the leading rebel group, had developed several impressive capabilities, including nighttime specialist units, suicide drone squadrons, improvised cruise missiles, and assassinations deep behind enemy lines. The rebel groups put aside their differences to focus on a common goal: ousting Bashar al-Assad.

But other incumbent regimes around the world have faced similarly capable insurgent groups and have fared much better and even won. The truth is that Assad’s forces performed poorly through much of the 13-year war—finally leading to the disintegration of the regime.

Winter is Coming: How Energy and Economics Will Impact Negotiations in Ukraine

Benjamin Jensen

The climate surrounding any negotiation in Ukraine will be chilly at best, marked by concerns about energy prices, economic growth in Europe, and shifting public opinion on the continent. This confluence of economic and political factors will make it difficult, albeit not impossible to support Ukraine’s desire to take back its territory and hold the Kremlin accountable. As a result, the incoming Trump administration should increase energy exports and pause any tariffs on European partners during the negotiation process. When combined with military strategy to bolster Ukrainian forces defending along the frontline, these measures ensure that Kyiv will have a stronger hand at the negotiating table.
How Energy and Economics Shape Support for Negotiations in Europe

There is a confluence of economic and political factors that could change European support for Kyiv during any negotiation. Energy costs are rising in Europe while the prospect of price volatility linked to conflicts in the Middle East remains high. Uncertainty could produce domestic pressure, especially in Germany, which heads to the ballot box in February. Rising energy costs could also tip broad-based economic stagnation, defined by low GDP growth, into a recession. Even absent a recession, rising costs amidst sluggish growth could increase domestic pressure to end the war and avoid costly military buildups in multiple European states.

Stop The ‘Green Hallucinationists’ Plan To Close All 200 Coal Power Plants – OpEd

Ronald Stein and George Harris

America continues to subsidize the development of occasionally generated electricity from weather dependent wind turbines and solar panels, to replace coal power plants, with the expectation that America, with about 4% of the world’s population, can drastically impact the world’s emissions occurring from the other 96% people on this planet.

Coal is the world’s most abundant and reliable energy source. The United States has the world’s largest coal reserves. Of the 15 major coal producing States, Montana has the largest coal reserve with 118.4 billion tons.

There are about 200 coal-burning power plants still operating in America, with many concentrated in Pennsylvania, Texas, Indiana, and the Powder River Basin of Wyoming and Montana, i.e. only 8% of the world’s coal plants.

Worldwide there are over 2,400 coal-fired power stations, i.e., the other 92% of the world’s coal plants.

Right now, China already has a total of 1,142 operating coal-fired plants and is building six times as many coal-fired power plants as the rest of the world combined – China is building the equivalent of two new coal plants every week!

Will Your Encrypted Messages Remain Private in Europe?

MARKร‰TA GREGOROVร

In recent years, civil-society organizations and industry players have joined forces to protect encrypted messaging from government intrusion. In an age of surveillance, notes the former Council of Europe commissioner for human rights, encryption is “a vital human rights tool.” In my own work on security and foreign affairs as a member of the European Parliament, I have seen firsthand why this is true. Activists, journalists, human-rights defenders, and ordinary citizens all rely on the right to privacy, viewing it as a core European value that underpins freedom of expression and democracy itself.

Encryption is one of the most important privacy-enabling technologies in today’s world, which is why most essential online services – messaging apps, calls, emails, file sharing, payments – rely on it. The most effective form, end-to-end encryption, ensures that only the communicating parties can decrypt and see the content of their messages, making unauthorized access impossible (as with Signal or WhatsApp).

But governments and law-enforcement agencies have been increasingly eager to access encrypted communications, even if that means undermining public confidence in privacy protection. Across EU member states, several governments want to weaken encryption technologies under the guise of fighting terrorism and other crime.

The fall of Assad is a defeat for Russia — and no 'win' for the US

Anatol Lieven

The fall of the Baath state in Syria is a serious defeat for Russia (and a disaster for Iran). It would however be a grave mistake to assume that this by necessity makes it a success for the United States.

Moscow and Washington may indeed now face similar challenges in Syria.

Three issues led Russia to intervene in the Syrian civil war to save the Assad regime. First was a general desire to preserve a partner state — one of the very few remaining to Russia after the U.S. overthrow of the regimes in Iraq and Libya, which helped to prop up Moscow’s international influence. Second was a desire to retain Russia’s only naval and air bases in the Mediterranean.

Third was a deep Russian fear that an Islamist victory would lead to Syria becoming a base for terrorism against Russia and its partners in Central Asia. That anxiety was increased by the presence of numerous fighters from Chechnya and other Muslim regions of Russia in the ranks of the Islamist forces in Syria and Iraq.

Moscow’s hope of preserving a partner state has now irredeemably collapsed. As to the terrorist threat, we will have to see. Given the huge challenges it will face in rebuilding the Syrian state, it would seem insane for the new regime led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to sponsor international terrorism; and, as part of his general strategy of disowning his Al Qaeda past, its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has promised not to do this.

Trump’s road to Ukraine peace runs through Tehran

John Roberts

At noon on Jan. 20, 2025, Donald Trump will become president for the second time. Unlike during his first term, Trump takes office with America engaged in two wars. One involving an ally, Israel, and one a country whose security we pledged to support, Ukraine.

Trump campaigned saying he would negotiate an end to the Ukraine war. Unlike former President Richard Nixon, who promised “peace with honor” in extricating the United States from the Vietnam quagmire but delivered instead a messy American exit from Saigon (an exit that was unparalleled in its chaotic quality until President Joe Biden’s Afghanistan fiasco), Trump hasn’t overpromised on how he will end Russia’s war against Ukraine.

But how to get it done?

There is a Realpolitik case and a moral case for Trump putting maximum pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to bring about a negotiated peace. That is to say, a peace that guarantees Ukraine’s national security and preserves as much of its territorial integrity as possible. The stunning fall of Aleppo in Syria illustrates how a resolution to the war between Russia and Ukraine lies in the Middle East. A combination of focused military action and Teddy Roosevelt-style diplomacy can simultaneously end Iran’s nuclear program, and perhaps bring about the downfall of its regime, while bolstering Trump’s position at the negotiating table. Trump should take advantage of the interconnectedness of today’s global political ecosystem.

Trump’s Victory and the Coming Realignment in Europe - Opinion

Alexander Brotman

Some NATO member states like Poland and the Baltic states are well positioned, having promoted European self-reliance and increased defense spending for some time, proving themselves as capable partners of both Republican and Democratic administrations. France and Germany are more vulnerable due to fractious internal politics and the collapse of Germany’s fragile coalition government just the day following the US election, with a likely Christian Democratic Union-led government emerging next year. For Europe, Trump’s re-election is a wake-up and a warning call, a signal that the Biden years may not have been a return to normal and that Trump is not an anomaly but representative of a deep-seated feature of US politics.

However, NATO’s ‘brain death’ in the words of French President Macron, is far from assured, and while the future of Ukraine is undoubtedly more perilous than it would have been under a Harris administration, Kyiv’s defeat is far from certain. Ukraine may even welcome the unpredictability of the new president, as a recent article in The Economist argued, and while some domestic cabinet posts have sparked controversy, Trump’s picks of Keith Kellogg as special envoy to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, and Mike Waltz as National Security Adviser have been welcome developments.

The First Digital War: Israel’s Cyber Tactics and Modern Conflict Analysis

Abdul Samad

The advanced assault executed a few months back by Israel was assumed to draw consideration to the country’s cyber capabilities and the application of fake insights in fighting, and in September, thousands of pagers detonated over Lebanon.

Israel since 7th October, 2023, has appeared no signs of help to the multi-front military frenzy. He is in a struggle with the lebanon hizvola, the gaze's hamas, and the Hearts of Yemen.

It was gassed in spite of the gloats of the Armed force of Israeli on the utilize of "exact blow," the buying of various modern innovations to particularly target Hamas individuals, and the limitations on the casualties of civilians. The number of individuals is presently over 41,000 citizens, and basic questions around how the Israeli armed force decides their reason.

And does he utilize progressed innovation in that operation? Inauspiciously, Rachel Dembinsky, commander of Israel's Center for Computer and Data Frameworks, portrayed the Israeli hostile in Gaza as "the to begin with computerized war" amid a conference called "Computing for the Israeli Armed force," with warriors claiming to be battling "from interior their laptops."

Expect more offensive cyber ops once Trump takes office

Morgan Wright

Nothing encapsulates the cybersecurity challenge for the incoming administration more than the oft-quoted statement by Gen. Paul Nakasone, the recently retired former head of U.S. Cyber Command, the NSA and the Central Security Service, who said:

“If we find ourselves defending inside our own networks, we have lost the initiative and the advantage.”

The threat landscape morphs daily, and while new AI technologies will play a significant role in defeating our adversaries in cyberspace, a more offensive cyber policy may be the most potent weapon we can deploy.

So with the Trump administration about to take power in January, can we expect more offensive cyber operations in the months and years ahead?

I think so. Ramping up a kinetic war is far different than unleashing a team of warfighters in cyberspace. Traditional warfare has big risks and comes with a big price tag. Not so with cyber.

Powering the Future: Latin America’s Geopolitical Role in the Global Energy Transition

Axel Bastiรกn Poque Gonzรกlez

The evidence from recent years leaves no doubt: anthropogenic climate change is accelerating, with its impacts becoming increasingly severe, frequent, and hazardous. These include extreme weather events, rising global temperatures, sea level rise, biodiversity loss, threats to agricultural productivity and food security, health risks, water scarcity, and escalating economic losses. These interconnected challenges are not only harming ecosystems but also undermining societal stability and economic resilience. According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), without substantial and immediate mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, these impacts will intensify, potentially reaching irreversible tipping points. The need for urgent global action to limit warming levels has never been more critical (IPCC 2022; 2023). August 2024 represents the fourteenth consecutive month in which global temperatures exceeded the pre-industrial baseline’s monthly average (1850–1900) by at least 1.5 °C, reinforcing the warming trend’s persistence (Rohde 2024).

The energy transition is pivotal for decarbonising the global economy and addressing the pressing challenges of climate change. Recent progress in renewable energy deployment has been encouraging. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA 2024c), wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies are jointly projected to exceed hydropower in electricity generation by 2024. Furthermore, overall renewables are projected to surpass coal power generation by 2025, marking a pivotal shift in the global energy landscape. Notwithstanding these encouraging indications, ensuring the continuity and acceleration of the energy transition is imperative to safeguard a sustainable future. Continued efforts must be made to enhance the deployment of renewable technologies in order to reduce carbon emissions and ensure the establishment of reliable and resilient energy systems on a global scale.

Five Scenarios for the War in Ukraine Under a Trump Presidency - Opinion

Ali Mammadov

All wars, regardless of their duration or nature, eventually come to an end. Since the onset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, numerous predictions have emerged, many of which have become less likely as the war has persisted longer than anticipated. Donald Trump’s election as U.S. President signals a potential shift in U.S. policy toward reduced support for Ukraine. Additionally, Ukraine’s use of U.S. missiles and Russia’s retaliatory ballistic missiles show critical escalations in the war. Recent developments necessitate updated scenarios.

Scholars offer varied perspectives on how wars end. Clausewitz argues they conclude when political objectives become irrelevant or unattainable over time. Iklรฉ highlights the need for leaders to make hard choices despite fears of appearing weak for resolution. Rose stresses the importance of clear postwar planning for lasting peace to bring the end of war. Wendt argues that wars truly end when adversaries no longer perceive each other as enemies, and Mearsheimer implies the role of decisive power shifts and the mutual recognition of war’s costliness.

To predict the end of the war in Ukraine, it is essential to understand the objectives of each side. From the beginning, Russia’s intentions were slightly unclear—was it aiming to conquer all or parts of Ukraine, expand its borders, or gain leverage in negotiations with the West? Initially, Russia seemed more confident, but as Ukraine’s resistance intensified and inflicted costs, its goals shifted, and Russia is now more open to negotiations. Currently, it is mainly interested in territorial gains, keeping Ukraine neutral, and preventing NATO from being involved directly.

History of the Future: Classical Realism and Trump

Haro Karkour

The re-election of Donald J. Trump is a testimony that history tells its jokes more than once and leaves to theoreticians the task of explaining them. Without history, theory finds refuge in the ideal; without theory, history is a series of unrelated events. A theoretician is one who extends the baton of history; stretches history, as it were, to periods that tell society a great deal about its times. For a theorist seeking to make sense of the crisis of liberal order, this period is the 1930s–40s and coincides with the publication of the classical realist texts. Can these texts make sense of our times? No doubt they intended to.

Hans Morgenthau’s Politics Among Nations ran five editions in his lifetime. In the fifth edition, in 1978, Morgenthau warned America of what history lay in store for those who forgot – or did not learn from – the Nazi experience. A society that is atomised, insecure about its future and powerless in the face of existential threats, Morgenthau wrote, ‘the United States is likely to partake to a growing extent in those tendencies in modern culture which have found their most extreme manifestations in Soviet Russia and National Socialist Germany’ (Morgenthau 1978, 121).

European Strategic Autonomy: How Realism Best Explains Why It Remains a Failure

Simon Rio

European Strategic Autonomy (hereafter referred to as ESA) has often been seen as a “buzzword”, encompassing several meanings and realities revolving around Europe’s security and foreign policy (Jรคrvenpรครค et al., 2019). Its ambiguity and interchangeability with other concepts such as “European Army” or “European Sovereignty” led several policymakers and scholars to try to precisely define and conceptualise it (see Anghel et al., 2020; Mauro, 2018), but no consensus has been reached: European countries—when they do not oppose it—fail to agree on ESA’s precise meaning, scope, and end (Arteaga et al., 2016; Franke & Varma, 2019; Libek, 2019; Jarpenvaa et al., 2019). Different reasons are invoked to explain such disagreements. As we shall see later in this paper, these positions relate to the wider theoretical debate on European integration in foreign and security policy, a debate on which all three major traditions of IR theory—respectively Realism, Constructivism, and Liberal Institutionalism—have a view.

Some scholars believe that these diverging positions can be explained more easily through rationalist and materialist considerations about states’ interests (Krotz & Maher, 2011; Monaghan, 2023). Others argue that the diversity of national “strategic cultures” in Europe—which Meyer defines as principles, values, and perceptions regarding a state’s global responsibilities and its understanding of security challenges (Meyer, 2006)—accounts for the lack of convergence over ESA (see Zandee et al., 2020). Finally, some contend that the main challenges to ESA are coordination between European states over security policies, a gap between rhetoric and actions and the difficulties in identifying common European Union (EU) policy objectives for security and foreign policy (Dorosh and Lemko, 2023).

The potential effects of Israel's ceasefire with Hezbollah

Rafi Schwartz

While Israeli forces and Hamas militants engage in a brutal Gaza conflict over the last year, Israel has also waged a separate war against Hezbollah, bombing suspected militant sites across Lebanon in response to months of rocket bombardments on Israel's north. The two fronts were, for a time, taken as a sign that a broader regional war was not merely possible but already underway.

However, the U.S.-France-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has succeeded in reducing hostilities between the two adversaries. And, in turn, the fragile detente has refocused attention back on the Gaza Strip, where a diminished Hamas remains a potent force.
Is Hamas more isolated now?

Hamas is "feeling the pressure" stemming from Hezbollah's ceasefire agreement, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on CBS' "Face the Nation." Hezbollah has been "one of [Hamas'] main partners in crime" and the truce undercuts their belief that the Lebanese militia would be "with them till the end." The Palestinian group had long hoped a "wider war in the Middle East would help deliver the organization a victory in its war with Israel," The New York Times said. But the Hezbollah ceasefire "left that strategy in tatters" and potentially removed "Hamas' most important ally from the fight."

My Travels with Trump

H.R. McMaster

As Air Force One took off, I felt a sense of relief. I was happy to leave behind Washington for a while. Maybe the overseas trip would allow us to focus on the substance of foreign policy.

I shared the four-person office between the galley and the conference room with the president’s chief economic adviser, Gary Cohn; his chief of staff, Reince Priebus; and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. They complained about the uncomfortable chairs that did not recline. I assured them that Air Force One was much more comfortable than the cargo aircraft I was used to taking to the Middle East. I learned on those flights that the key to getting rest was to stake out a comfortable spot on the floor.

President Trump was in a good mood when he popped into the office. He noted, as he often would on trips abroad, “General, you are always working.” And I gave what was becoming my standard answer: “Mr. President, that is what you hired me to do.”

Before dinner was served, I briefed the president and First Lady Melania Trump on the first three stops of what would be a nine-day odyssey.


Caught Off Guard: Strategic Surprise in History and Lessons for National Security Strategy

Ken Robinson

Today, the Fall of Damascus to rebel militias marks a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics, reminiscent of historical upheavals that have shocked the world and revealed glaring gaps in the ability of states and their intelligence services to anticipate transformative events.

The stunning speed of the rebel advance exemplifies the enduring challenge of strategic surprise: that unleash chaos and reshape the geopolitical landscape.

History is rife with examples of strategic surprises—moments when events defied expert predictions, exposed flawed assumptions, and thrust nations into unanticipated crises.

The difference between "prediction" and "anticipation" lies at the heart of these failures.

While Prediction seeks singular outcomes and often narrows focus to the most obvious scenarios, Anticipation properly ranks outcomes based on their potential impact. By failing to prepare for low-probability, high-impact scenarios, policymakers have repeatedly been caught off guard, with dire consequences.

Historic Strategic Surprises and Their Consequences

1. The Attack on Pearl Harbor (1941): Japan's surprise attack crippled the U.S. Pacific Fleet and propelled the United States into World War II. Despite warnings and mounting tensions, American military and intelligence services underestimated Japan's willingness to strike preemptively.

Manufacturing is a war now And the democracies are losing.

Noah Smith

I’m not sure if Musk is right about the F-35 and other manned fighters — drones and fighters play different roles on the battlefield, and may coexist in the future (for an argument that the F-35 itself has been overly maligned, watch this fun video). But in any case, Musk’s larger point that drones will dominate the battlefield of the future should now be utterly uncontroversial.

Drones have already become the essential infantry weapon, capable of taking out soldiers and tanks alike, as well as the key spotter for artillery fire and the standard method of battlefield reconnaissance. Electronic warfare — using EM signals to jam drones’ communication with their pilots and GPS satellites — is providing some protection against drones for now, but once AI improves to the point where drones are able to navigate on their own, even that defense will be mostly ineffectual. This doesn’t mean drones will be the only weapon of war, but it will be impossible to fight and win a modern war without huge numbers of drones.

And who makes FPV drones, of the type depicted in Musk’s video? China. Although the U.S. still leads in the production of military drones, China’s DJI and other manufacturers dominate the much larger market for commercial drones.

Beyond Musk’s Starlink: these satellites run our daily lives with precision

Paulina Okunytฤ—

Have you heard of Galileo or Copernicus's satellite networks? Even if the names don’t ring a bell, chances are you already use them.

What powers the geolocation system used by your food delivery app or other location-based services? Or provides the satellite images you see in the media? Or helps scientists prove that climate change is real?

All this data comes from European satellite networks, aptly named after renowned astronomers Galileo and Copernicus. These networks provide the most accurate and extensive satellite data worldwide and are free of charge.

In the corridors of the SDSC 2024 conference in Tallinn, Estonia, I met Rodrigo De Costa, Executive Director of the European Union Agency for the Space Programme (EUSPA). He explained why everyone should know about the Galileo and Copernicus satellite networks and revealed what is at the core of the space economy.

If you have a cellphone in Europe, you’ve tried Galileo

Galileo is a satellite navigation system similar to the US-made Global Positioning System (GPS). Since its launch in 2016, the service has had around four billion users, and all smartphones sold in the European market are Galileo-enabled.