India Could Be Apple and Samsung’s Solution to the Future of Phones

Andrew Williams

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The giant companies that make the phones in our pockets have a problem. They have several, actually.

Capitalism’s lifeblood, growth, is slowing. Returning, and reinforced, Trump tariffs may significantly increase the costs of doing business. And there’s a question mark over whether any normal folks really care about the latest ruse to get people upgrading—AI in phones.

One potential solution addresses at least a couple of these areas: India.

The US and UK are desiccated husks compared to India. Smartphone penetration percentages are already in the 90s in the West. They’re tapped out. Meanwhile, India is on track to become the world’s third-largest economy according to Morgan Stanley, and there are hundreds of millions of future customers to be converted.

“There's no other market of the size which still has about 50 percent penetration, about half a billion people without a smartphone. So there's a lot of room for growth,” says Navkendar Singh, IDC India’s associate vice president of devices research.

In one important sense, though, India is quite different from key Western markets, because the phone isn’t just a complement to other devices like a home PC or laptop. It’s often the only device a person uses day to day.

Vietnam quiet, firm and resilient in the South China Sea - Opinion

James Borton

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The South China Sea has long been a cauldron of tension and ambition, with overlapping claims from several nations converging in the resource-rich and strategically vital waterway. At the heart of the geopolitical theater is the fraught and historically turbulent relationship between Vietnam and China.

Once allies during the Cold War, the two nations now find themselves on opposing sides of an escalating territorial dispute. Their history of distrust and warfare is evident in the competing narratives and power plays that define their rivalry in the contested waters.

China, with its sweeping “nine-dash line” claim, has aggressively pursued its goal of turning the South China Sea into what many see as a “Chinese lake.”

Through massive land reclamation projects and the construction of artificial islands equipped with runways, missile systems and radar facilities, Beijing has transformed formerly uninhabitable reefs into formidable military outposts.

These efforts, combined with frequent naval patrols and diplomatic strong-arming, underscore China’s determination to assert dominance over the region.

Guam: The U.S. Military’s Achilles Heel in War with China?

Brent M. Eastwood

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Can Guam Be Defended from Chinese Missiles?

Guam is the key to U.S. military strategy in East Asia. It is an island that would be disastrous for the Americans if it came under attack and became incapacitated. Without Guam, China would have unfettered access to the Pacific Ocean – an unthinkable dilemma for the Pentagon. China has an enormous arsenal of missiles that could hit Guam to devastating effect. Would the United States be able to defend Guam from such a dangerous attack?

Murdered By ‘Guam Killers’

China even has ballistic missiles that are nicknamed “Guam Killers.”

The main one to fear is the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile.

The DF-26 is a dual-threat conventional and nuclear weapon that has U.S. military leaders, strategists, lawmakers, and battle planners up in arms.

The DF-26 ranges 2,000 or more (some sources have this higher, at 3,100 miles or more), and Guam is in its crosshairs.

What Do the Latest Purges Mean for China’s Military?

Duncan Bartlett

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Xi Jinping holds the founding father of the People’s Republic of China, Mao Zedong, in high esteem. He sometimes copies Mao’s style of dress and displays similar mannerisms. He has even found ways to use Mao’s slogans for his own purposes.

In 1938, Mao said: “Every communist must grasp the truth; political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.”

In modern China, that militant idea serves as a reminder that the authority of the supreme leader rests upon his control over the military.

In what appears to be a deliberate echo of Mao, Xi told senior ranking officers of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army in June 2024: “We must make it clear that the barrels of guns must always be in the hands of those who are loyal and dependable to the [Chinese Communist] Party … And we must make it clear that there is no place for any corrupt elements in the military.”

Since then, a strident campaign to eradicate corruption has continued, leading to the removal of senior officers and political commissars.

US–China Relationship’s Fragile Stability Shows Fractures In 2024 – Analysis

Jia Qingguo

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As 2024 draws to a close, the stability of US–China relations is fragile at best. Even this fragile stability cannot be sustainable after Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. But there may be a silver lining. People in the United States, China and other countries will likely fear escalating tensions and oppose further confrontation.

The year began with some modest optimism following the stabilising San Francisco summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden in November 2023. The meeting indicated the possibility of real progress in cooperation on some issues, occurring halfway through the US Trade Representative’s statutory four-year review of Trump’s tariffs. Some observers believed that the Biden administration would find it in US interests to lift at least some tariffs on China, given their controversial results.

Senior officials from both nations maintained a sense of normalcy and stability in their diplomacy. President Xi and President Biden held a phone call in April and met in person at the November APEC Leaders’ Summit in Lima. They reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining dialogue and careful management of this complex relationship.

The Overlooked Trend in China’s Military Violations of Taiwan’s ADIZ

Cheng-kun Ma and K. Tristan Tang

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On November 28, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense announced that the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and Navy (PLAN) began conducting joint combat readiness patrols in Taiwan’s northern, southwestern, and eastern airspace at 6:20 p.m. that night.

The Chinese military’s incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) have attracted significant attention, mainly focusing on the sorties reported daily in Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense press releases and their political implications. However, the joint combat readiness patrols and their military implications have long been overlooked. These patrols pose a greater threat to Taiwan than the typical daily incursions and are more significant for analysis. In fact, the recent emerging trends have even more important strategic implications.

Based on the press release from Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, the current level of PLAN and PLAAF incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ appears to have reached a plateau, as joint combat readiness patrols and daily incursions did not significantly increase compared to previous years. Despite China’s rising military expenditures, which could logically lead to more frequent incursions, this situation may suggest that the PLA’s current operational capacity has reached its maximum. Still, the intensity of incursions could increase with further strengthening of logistical capabilities and expansion of the PLAN and PLAAF’s structure.

Why the Syrian army collapsed so quickly in northern Syria

Nader Durgham

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For four years, it seemed as if President Bashar al-Assad's army had largely won the civil war in Syria.

Regional and international actors were re-establishing ties with the Syrian government, believing the conflict to have generally wrapped up, with Syrian and Russian forces occasionally targeting rebel-held pockets in the northwest.

Travel vloggers were regularly invited to trips to Damascus, Aleppo and other areas to promote tourism while the government’s main concerns were the increasing Israeli strikes on Iranian and Hezbollah positions and figures in the country.

All that carefully balanced relative calm collapsed when the Syrian army, seemingly overwhelmed and overpowered, lost the major cities of Aleppo and Hama in a single week following a surprise rebel offensive.

While rebels have engaged in fierce fighting with government forces in some areas and encountered some resistance, their advances have been relatively smooth, capturing large swathes of land around Aleppo and Hama as Syrian government officials say they are regrouping outside the lost cities.

Losing Syria Is A ‘Huge Slap In The Face’ For Russia – Analysis

Michael Scollon and Frud Bezhan

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When Vladimir Putin took the reins of power in a post-Soviet Russia in shambles a quarter-century ago, he immediately set about restoring Moscow’s status as a global power.

It took 15 years, but Russia heralded its military intervention in the Syrian civil waras proof of its return as a force to be reckoned with on the international stage.

Moscow leveraged that image to expand its influence throughout the Middle East and beyond as a counterweight to the West.

Now, the fall of the government of President Bashar al-Assad, a key ally of Moscow, has dealt a serious blow to Russia’s great-power ambitions.

“Putin’s military adventure in Syria was designed to demonstrate that Russia is a great power and can project its influence abroad,” said Phillip Smyth, a Middle East expert. “Losing Syria is a huge slap in the face for Putin.”

Assad’s ouster represents not only a reputational hit to Russia but likely a major strategic setback.

U.S. Air Force Strikes Dozens of ISIS Camps in Syria After Fall of Damascus

Stefano D'Urso

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The wave of strikes against 75 targets by B-52s, F-15Es and A-10Cs is meant to prevent the terrorist group from exploiting the current situation in Syria.

After Syrian rebels quickly seized the capital Damascus unopposed on Dec. 8, 2024, and President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that its forces conducted dozens of precision airstrikes targeting known ISIS camps and operatives in central Syria on the same day.

U.S. Strikes

The statement from CENTCOM said the operation struck over 75 targets using multiple U.S. Air Force assets, including B-52s, F-15s, and A-10s. The targets included ISIS leaders, operatives, and camps, attacked as part of the ongoing mission to disrupt, degrade, and defeat ISIS.

CENTCOM stated that the strikes were conducted “in order to prevent the terrorist group from conducting external operations and to ensure that ISIS does not seek to take advantage of the current situation to reconstitute in central Syria.” The command also mentioned battle damage assessments are underway, and there are no indications of civilian casualties.

Assad Falls: Why the Syrian Army Collapsed So Quickly

Julian McBride

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The Collapse of the Syrian Army: A Modern-Day Military Disaster

The Syrian army has rapidly collapsed in a way not seen since the fall of the Afghan and South Vietnamese armies. Initially holding significant leverage at the height of offensives that squeezed rebel and Islamist groups, the Baathist army is now decimated, disorganized, and on its final heels.

The Syrian army, despite being propped up by various militias and states, would become complacent as the Assad regime focused on a lavish lifestyle on a pedestal of ashes rather than reconstituting a professional fighting force. The downfall of the Syrian military has been ongoing for several years, and various factors contributed to the collapse.

The Collapse of the Syrian Army

On November 27th, rebel groups led by HTS, an Islamist organization whose leadership used to be affiliated with al-Qaeda, led a limited offensive in the Aleppo countryside. Suddenly, the Syrian army collapsed entirely, and the HTS and rebel factions would soon completely capture Aleppo and Syrian government-held areas of Idlib.

Marching South towards Hama, the retreating Syrian army attempted to coordinate a defensive line in the provincial capital as Homs would become untenable. The rebel factions and HTS would take the province in less than 72 hours, and a route began.

Assad’s downfall — the winners and losers

Jamie Dettmer

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After a lightning rebel advance overran Damascus and forced Syrian strongman Bashar Assad to flee, the world is trying to understand the latest dramatic rupture in the Middle East and its consequences.

Here are the potential winners and losers from Assad’s downfall.

Winners

Syria (maybe)

The Syrian people have endured a 13-year, multi-layered civil war and nearly half a century of brutal rule by the Assad family, which has used censorship, state terror, mass deportations, chemical warfare and massacres to maintain power. The war has claimed the lives of between 470,000 and 600,000 people, making it the 21st century’s second-deadliest conflict after the Second Congo War.

More than 13 million Syrians have been forcibly displaced by the conflict — 6.2 million of them fleeing overseas. The war shaped the circumstances for the rise of the especially barbaric jihadist group Islamic State.

Whether ordinary Syrians are winners depends on what happens next in the country and if Syria can avoid more violence and develop along peaceful lines. Some fear there will be a power vacuum and that the country’s various political factions and religious groups will clash.

What Role Is Turkey Playing in Syria’s Civil War?

Henri J. Barkey

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What role are outside powers playing in Syria’s new rebel offensive?

Turkey is the most important outside power supporting the rebel side. It geographically adjoins Syrian rebel territory in the northwest, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government supported the 2011 Arab Spring uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. At times, he also backed a variety of Islamist groups during the Syrian civil war. The leading and most substantial rebel group, Ha’yat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is the former Al-Nusra Front, a jihadist organization that fought the self-declared Islamic State (ISIS). It renamed itself and claimed that it renounced some of its more extreme positions, has become more respectful of minorities, and has taken on some institutional responsibilities in the form of local government. While there are indications that HTS acquired Turkish help in the form of arms, primarily drones, prior to this offensive, HTS is not Ankara’s primary client. It’s also worth noting that HTS has reportedly been manufacturing its own arms in recent years.

Turkey’s ally among the rebels is the Syrian National Army (SNA), which, despite its name, is a wholly Turkish-owned entity. Since the defeat of ISIS, the Turks have been more concerned with the emergence of a Syrian-Kurdish entity in northern Syria led by the Syrian Democratic Forces, the SDF. The SDF, though a Syrian organization, has its roots in the Turkish-Kurdish insurgency. The United States decided to partner with the SDF when the Iraqi, Syrian, and Iraqi-Kurdish forces melted away at the height of the ISIS onslaught in 2014. This partnership was successful, and to this day, the United States maintains a force of roughly nine hundred soldiers in northern Syria in collaboration with the SDF to prevent the resurgence of ISIS.

After Fall of Assad Dynasty, Syria’s Risky New Moment

Steven A. Cook

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On January 21, 1994, Basil al-Assad was killed in what the Syrian government described as a car accident. According to official dispatches, he had been driving too fast on the way to the airport and lost control of his vehicle. It was both entirely believable and the kind of accident that did not happen to the sons of Middle Eastern dictators—especially those being groomed to take the reins of power.

Basil’s death required that the next oldest son of Hafez al-Assad take his brother’s place. That was Bashar, who had been living in London and training to be an ophthalmologist at the time of his brother’s death. Between 1994 and 2000, Hafez, who had come to power in 1971 and had brought a repressive and sterile order to Syria, put his unintended heir through a crash course in how to run Syria.

Now three decades after his rise to prominence and almost a quarter century of rule, Bashar is gone and so is the Assad dynasty. Almost incomprehensively swept away over a two-week period during which the Islamist rebel group Ha’yat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its partner, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), swept out of Idlib province to seize the country from Bashar who barely managed to put up a fight after his Russian and Iranian allies abandoned him. The flip side of this ignominious defeat for Moscow and Tehran is the liberation of Syrians who joined with HTS, in particular, to carry on the uprising they began in the spring of 2011.

How Bashar al-Assad’s regime crumbled

Mehul Srivastava, Max Seddon, Andrew England and Najmeh Bozorgmehr 

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Three weeks ago Bashar al-Assad was at an Arab summit in Riyadh enjoying the diplomatic attention. 

He stood at a podium to lecture about political solidarity, met with powerful Arab leaders, including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and waved from a red carpet as he departed on his presidential plane. 

He was the reviled leader of a fractured state, but so rooted in place that even Europeans had been making overtures — via Jordan — in search of a solution to the Syrian refugee crisis. 

If not rehabilitation, it was at least resigned acceptance. More than a decade of civil war had failed to topple Assad, allowing him to inch back from pariah status. 

Now 59-year-old Assad is an asylum seeker in Moscow, his father’s statue in Tartus has been toppled, and rebels are scouring embassies in Damascus for any sign of the cronies who ran his regime.

Ousted Syrian leader Assad flees to Moscow after fall of Damascus, Russian state media say

ABDULRAHMAN SHAHEEN, ABBY SEWELL AND SARAH EL DEEB

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Ousted Syrian leader Bashar Assad fled to Moscow and received asylum from his longtime ally, Russian media said Sunday, hours after a stunning rebel advance seized control of Damascus and ended his family’s 50 years of iron rule.

Thousands of Syrians poured into streets echoing with celebratory gunfire and waved the revolutionary flag in scenes that recalled the early days of the Arab Spring uprising, before a brutal crackdown and the rise of an insurgency plunged the country into a nearly 14-year civil war.

The swiftly moving events raised questions about the future of the country and the wider region.

“Our approach has shifted the balance of power in the Middle East,” President Joe Biden said, crediting action by the U.S. and its allies for weakening Syria’s backers — Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. He called the fall of Assad a “fundamental act of justice” but also a “moment of risk and uncertainty,” and said rebel groups are “saying the right things now” but the U.S. would assess their actions.

The Pentagon knows it's got a drone problem. Here's what it's doing about it.

Jake Epstein

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The US military is increasingly realizing that drones are a substantial problem it's going to need an answer for.

The Pentagon has developed a new counter-drone strategy to address the growing threat that drones pose to US forces at home and abroad, from mysterious uncrewed systems troublingly hanging around American bases to one-way attack drones killing US military personnel overseas.

"In recent years, adversary unmanned systems have evolved rapidly," Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said in a statement as the Department of Defense rolled out the strategy Thursday. "These cheap systems are increasingly changing the battlefield, threatening US installations, and wounding or killing our troops."

The new strategy reflects the Pentagon's evolving approach to the increasing drone challenge and offers a plan for the military to defeat the threat, building on some existing initiatives.

What is the drone problem?

Drones have played a prominent role in the Ukraine war and throughout the ongoing Middle East conflicts. One-way attack drones have been fired repeatedly at US forces stationed in the region over the past year; one serious incident in Jordan killed three American troops and wounded dozens more.

How an Assassin Escaped One of the Most Surveilled Cities in the World

Alyssa Lukpat, Brian McGill, Tania Colon-Bosch and Taylor Umlauf

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The UnitedHealth assassin has evaded police in one of the most surveilled cities in the world but has left a trail of clues to his whereabouts.

Investigators are using a web of public and private cameras to hunt the suspect who fatally shot Brian Thompson, the chief executive of UnitedHealth’s insurance arm. The killing outside a New York City Hilton hotel was captured on video Wednesday, along with several other stops the suspect has made.

Amnesty International has estimated New York City has more than 25,000 cameras at traffic intersections alone. The city introduced a new drone surveillance initiative over Central Park last month to help solve crimes there and in other areas.

The images offer hints about the killer’s journey as he went to Starbucks and slipped away in Manhattan. But there are holes in the timeline the investigators made public, underscoring how difficult it can be to track a single man in a city of more than eight million.

The New York City Police Department said Friday afternoon they think the suspect left the state on a bus. Police said investigators used surveillance footage to track the suspect’s path out of Central Park and up the west side of Manhattan, from which they think he made his getaway out of New York.

Prosecuting Putin’s Proxies: How Prosecutions Are Reshaping the Fight Against Russian Irregular Forces

Candace Rondeaux

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The grainy video showed a man in civilian clothes being escorted through Helsinki Airport by Finnish security officers. To the casual observer, it might have seemed like just another security check. But the arrest in July 2023 of Jan Petrovsky, a commander of the notorious Russian paramilitary unit DShRG Rusich, represents something far more significant: the emergence of criminal prosecution as a powerful weapon against Russian irregular warfare operations. Now nearly two years on, Petrovsky, a Russian citizen, is now potentially facing years in prison for war crimes charges in a historic trial set to unfold in the Finnish capital in the coming months.

The prosecution of Jan Petrovsky in Finland marks a watershed moment in the pursuit of justice for Russian paramilitary atrocities in Ukraine. As a commander of the St. Petersburg- based Sabotage Assault Reconnaissance Group (DShRG) Rusich, a Wagner-affiliated unit, Petrovsky faces atrocity allegations connected to a brutal 2014 ambush of Ukrainian forces near Metallist in the Donbas region. What sets this case apart is its temporal scope – reaching back to alleged war crimes that predate Russia’s 2022 invasion, making it unique among Wagner-related prosecutions.

Announcement of the charges against Petrovsky in late October 2024, who also once held Norwegian citizenship, captured headlines in Finland and other parts of Scandinavia. Petrovsky is by no means the first Wagner Group linked operative to face formal war crimes charges–that distinction belongs to three others charged in Ukraine early after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022–but he is by far one of the most prominent paramilitary leaders to be detained.

The Russian Economy Remains Putin’s Greatest Weakness

Theodore Bunzel and Elina Ribakova

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In 1762, during the Seven Years’ War, the situation looked dire for Frederick the Great of Prussia. The tsarist Russian army, having exhausted the Prussians, was on the march and threatening Berlin. But then the unthinkable happened: Empress Elizabeth of Russia died, and her Prussophile successor, Emperor Peter III, abruptly halted the Russian army and sued for peace, even lending Russian troops to Frederick. What Frederick called the Miracle of the House of Brandenburg remains a stark example of how political change and a new leader’s personal sympathies can suddenly upend an international conflict.

Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the U.S. presidential election may not amount to a Miracle of the House of Putin, but it does give the Kremlin a boost in its war against Ukraine. Trump is skeptical of U.S. support for Kyiv and has promised to bring the fighting to an end. His pledge to resolve the conflict “in 24 hours” may sound like braggadocio, but it reflects a growing consensus in Washington that favors a negotiated solution.

But unlike Prussia in 1762, Russia today isn’t on the ropes; in fact, its army has been gaining ground. Moscow believes that it has momentum on its side and isn’t ready to compromise. Kyiv, meanwhile, remains in the fight and is in no mood for capitulation. Turning Trump’s eagerness to end the war into a stable settlement will therefore require the West to first ramp up pressure on Moscow in order to gain leverage at the negotiating table. Otherwise, a rushed cease-fire on terms highly favorable to Russia could simply become a brief pause before the Kremlin reaches for more.

Biden Nuclear Weapons Employment Guidance Leaves Nuclear Decisions to Trump

Adam Mount & Hans Kristensen

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In early November 2024, the United States released a report describing the fourth revision to its nuclear employment strategy since the end of the Cold War and the third since 2013. The public report summarizes a classified employment guidance reportedly issued by President Joseph Biden in April and was submitted to Congress as required by law (and is sometimes known as the section 491 report after the relevant section of the U.S. Code).

The Nuclear Weapons Employment Planning Guidance of the United States “directly informs DoD’s development of nuclear employment options for consideration by the President in extreme circumstances and establishes requirements that shape U.S. nuclear weapons capabilities and posture.”

The report is notable as the first known effort by a U.S. president to provide guidance on the nuclear employment strategy amid growing concern about China’s dramatic buildup of nuclear forces. The report does not reflect the recommendation of the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission and several other expert groups to expand the size or capability of the nation’s nuclear forces. However, because of an ambiguity in the text about what is required to “deter” multiple adversaries simultaneously, the report is likely to support the narrative that the Biden administration accepts the need for an eventual buildup. Biden’s guidance appears to leave major questions in nuclear strategy to the incoming Trump administration.

Amphibious Warfare Dead, or Is It?

Gary Anderson

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Amphibious operations were declared dead one-hundred years ago after the failed triple entente landings at Gallipoli early in the first World War. The amphibious assaults at places like Guadalcanal, Iwo Jima, and Normandy during World War II disproved that theory but were soon left in the shadow of the nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

The advent of nuclear weapons and "push button" warfare gave rise to conventional wisdom that defensive technology rendered amphibious assaults obsolete. Harry Truman went so far as to declare that the U.S. Marine Corps and its amphibious operations specialty had become obsolete. The Marine Corps, however, forced Truman to revise prevailing conventional wisdom after the Marine Corps’ historic landing at Inchon turned the tide of the Korean war.

The Battle of Inchon reinvigorated military amphibious warfare doctrine until just a few years ago. This time it wasn’t the President of the United States, but rather the Commandant of the Marine Corps that sought to end the Marine Corps reign as the masters of amphibious warfare and ability to conduct large scale combat operations. By 2019, Marine commandant General David Berger concluded that, once again, defensive technology had made traditional amphibious operations obsolete.

Why the media keep underestimating Israel

Michael Murphy

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As a boy in Wilhelmine Germany during the First World War, future historian Sebastian Haffner devoured daily army bulletins. At just seven years old, he was already a ‘fanatical jingoist and armchair warrior’, meticulously tallying troop strengths. He was confident that the Kaiser’s army would soon triumph.

The bulletins, however, were rose-tinted, designed to bolster morale rather than inform. As the front deteriorated, they increasingly resembled a fantasy league, with regiments holding favourable positions only on paper. When defeat finally came, it shocked the nation. Haffner likened the feeling to ‘someone who year after year has deposited large sums of money in his bank’ only to discover ‘a gigantic overdraft instead of a fortune’.

Today, this experience is all too familiar. Like Germans deceived by rosy war bulletins, educated people are often blindsided by major events, misled by wishful thinking disguised as analysis. From Brexit to the rise and resurgence of Donald Trump, big events are routinely confounding mainstream predictions. Errors are inevitable when discussing the future, but something is amiss when they consistently tilt in the same direction.

The Ukraine War Requires a Negotiated Settlement

Benjamin Sanders

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There is no doubt that the goal of war is to win. War aims may differ considerably depending on the context, but at the end of the day victory is the ultimate aim. This is why the struggle during conflict is long and arduous, because the aims can lead to great rewards. Yet there comes a time when one side, usually the losing side, must begin to consider realistically its future ability to carry on. Indeed sometimes this applies to both sides, as the cost of continued fighting outweighs the geopolitical benefits. Initially, there may only be private utterances among senior officials, or classified communiques between diplomats, yet they begin to form the basis of a ‘get out’ strategy as prospects decline.

In the medieval period, deals were very common after rebel barons failed to defeat the king in battle. The monarch may take the head of the leading conspirator and attainder his lands, but most of the co-rebels would be free to return to their estates if they reaffirmed their commitment to the king. In the 19th century, British gunboats would bombard relentlessly, yet they didn’t necessarily do this to conquer; instead, they sought to force China or other states to open their ports to trade or acknowledge their status as vassals of the empire. Britain never sought to conquer China during the Opium Wars, because there were other ways of acquiring victory and achieving a lasting peace. This methodology still applies in the present day.

Khamenei Loses Everything - Opinion

Eliot A. Cohen

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When Hamas’s Yahya Sinwar launched Operation Al-Aqsa Flood against Israel on October 7, 2023, he intended to deal a decisive blow against a powerful nation-state—and he succeeded. But the state his attack has devastated turned out not to be Israel, but Iran, his key sponsor.

It is a persistent folly of progressive thought to believe that wars do not achieve meaningful political consequences. The past 15 months in the Middle East suggest otherwise. After suffering terribly on October 7, Israel has pulverized Hamas, ending the threat it posed as an organized military force. The challenge it now faces in Gaza is a humanitarian and administrative crisis, not a security one. Israel has likewise shattered Hezbollah in Lebanon, forcing it to accept a cease-fire after losing not only thousands of foot soldiers but much of its middle management and senior leadership. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin’s brutal but botched war of conquest in Ukraine has undermined his other strategic goals. In Syria, Russia’s one solid foothold in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine has leached away Russian forces, depriving it of the ability to influence events.

All of this set the stage for the dramatic events of the past two weeks, as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni fundamentalist militia, spearheaded the seizure of Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and Damascus and brought about the overthrow and collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. Neither Tehran nor Moscow could do anything about it.

AI’s Alarming Trend Toward Illiberalism

Ami Fields-Meyer and Janet Haven

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As the United States nears its consequential November election, concerns about the impacts of artificial intelligence on the country’s electoral integrity are front and center. Voters are receiving deceptive phone calls mimicking candidates’ voices, and campaigns are using AI images in their ads. Many fear that highly targeted messaging could lead to suppressed voter turnout or false information about polling stations. These are legitimate concerns that public officials are working overtime to confront.

But free and fair elections, the building blocks of democratic representation, are only one dimension of democracy. Today, policymakers must also recognize an equally fundamental threat that advanced technologies pose to a free and open society: the suppression of civil rights and individual opportunity at the hands of opaque and unaccountable AI systems. Ungoverned, AI undermines democratic practice, norms, and the rule of law—fundamental commitments that underpin a robust liberal democracy—and opens pathways toward a new type of illiberalism. To reverse this drift, we must reverse the currents powering it.