Indian Strategic Studies: 12/03/24

3 December 2024

Bugles and a Tiger: Adventure on India's Frontie

JOHN MASTERS

An Englishman whose family has lived in India for four generations, JOHN MASTERS was born in Calcutta and Observed the family tradition by srvting for fourteen years in the British Army, in the course of which he was awarded the DSO. In 1948 he moved to this country and made his first appearance in the Atlantic— he says. ” which encouraged me to persevere ” With his first novel. Nightrunners of Bengal, he took command of a large audience, and each new book thereafter has added to his popularity. This is the first of two installments from Bugles and a Tiger, which Viking will publish early in the new year. An autobiographical volume, it is the story of his early years in the Indian Army, and it gives the clue to the writer who was to be.

THE train rumbled on the iron bridge over the Ravi canal near Pathankol, India, and I started to collect my baggage. The last time I had traveled this route I had been coming to face the terrifying ceremony of being vetted, or approved by ordeal.

When an officer was seconded to the staff or the militia, or something else, or retired altogether from the service, his departure created a vacancy in his regiment. If the regiment had a good reputation, swarms of new officers like myself clamored to fill these vacancies. The Gurkhas had long ago taken the fancy of the British people and press. They and the Sikhs were the only Indian troops the general public in Britain had ever heard of, so Gurkha and Sikh regiments usually had three or four applicants for every vacancy. The regiments made their selections by the good but cruel method of vetting. They invited the candidates, in succession, to spend ten days’ leave with them as their guests.

On arrival each young man was placed in charge of the junior subaltern — lieutenants and second lieutenants are subalterns — who took him to military, sporting, and social occasions. Efforts were made to get the candidate drunk, because in vino there is veritas, and always his behavior was unobtrusively watched. When the regiment had seen all the applicants, a mess meeting was held, and the colonel asked every officer to give his selections. As a rule the opinions of the subalterns, who might expect to live closest and longest with the new boy, carried the most weight. The colonel, who bore sole responsibility, made the final decision. Sometimes he vetoed a young man approved by the subalterns. More rarely he insisted on taking someone they did not like. In nearly every such case events proved him wrong.

One Nation, One Subscription, Many Opinions

Nikhil Abhishek

The Union Cabinet's recent approval of the One Nation One Subscription (ONOS) scheme on November 25, 2024, marks a significant milestone in India's educational landscape.

With an allocation of Rs 6,000 crore over three years (2025-2027), the government aims to provide countrywide access to nearly 13,000 e-journals from 30 major international publishers.

The initiative is designed to benefit over 1.8 crore students, faculty, researchers, and scientists across more than 6,300 government higher-education institutions and Central government Research & Development (R&D) institutions.

Trying to understand the diverse opinions surrounding ONOS and its potential impact, EdexLive spoke to a wide range of individuals directly connected to academia and research. Their perspectives span enthusiastic support, cautious optimism, and outright criticism, reflecting the complex implications of such a sweeping policy change.

A visionary leap towards equitable access

Mamidala Jagadesh Kumar, Chairman of the University Grants Commission (UGC), is a key architect and ardent supporter of ONOS. In an exclusive response to EdexLive, Kumar articulated the transformative potential of the policy.

"ONOS is specifically designed to address the inequities in access to scholarly resources," he stated, adding, "By centralising journal subscriptions and negotiating favourable terms, we aim to make high-quality research materials accessible to all Indian universities, regardless of their size or funding."

Kumar emphasised that smaller and underfunded institutions, which often struggle with prohibitive subscription costs, stand to gain significantly. "This levels the playing field, enabling students and faculty at these institutions to engage with cutting-edge research," he explained, saying, "It will contribute to advancements in their fields and ultimately enhance the quality of education and research across the country."

Growing Hindu-Muslim Tension In Bangladesh Widens Rift With India – Analysis

P. K. Balachandran

Since the issues involved have domestic implications, domestic politics in the two countries tend to vitiate the atmosphere and exacerbate the tension.

Relations between Bangladesh and India, which nosedived following the ouster of the Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August, appears set to deteriorate further.

A sharpening of Muslim-Hindu conflict in Chittagong, the second most important part of Bangladesh after capital Dhaka, has exacerbated tension with India further.

The Hindu-Muslim conflict, which is at the root of the tension now, is embedded in the domestic politics of both Bangladesh and India. That has its own dynamics, exacerbating tension and making it doubly difficult to solve.

The port city and trading centre of Chittagong has been a hotbed of ethnic, linguistic and religious conflict for decades. Earlier, the fight was between Bengali Muslims and the indigenous Buddhist Chakma tribe in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT). Now it is a fight between the Bengali Muslim majority (87%) and the Bengali Hindus (11%) in the whole of Chittagong.

While Muslims are seen by Hindus as being backed by the Bangladeshi State, the Hindus are perceived by the Muslims to be backed by Bangladesh’s neighbour and regional power, India, where an aggressive Hindu nationalism is ruling the roost.

During the violent mass movement of July-August this year which ousted Sheikh Hasina, agitators attacked numerous Hindu properties as Hindus were seen as Hasina’s support base. These attacks instilled mortal fear among the Hindus whose population had already dwindled from about 30% in 1947 to about 8% due to continuous State-backed Islamic intolerance over the years.

India’s new cyber rules for telecoms come with big privacy risks, experts say

India’s telecommunications regulator has rolled out rules designed to protect the country’s critical infrastructure networks from cyberthreats, but experts warn that the new guidelines have inadequate safeguards for users' fundamental privacy rights.

The regulations, published last week by India’s Department of Telecommunications (DoT), require telecom entities to report cybersecurity incidents within six hours, share user traffic data with cybersecurity authorities and adopt a cybersecurity policy that includes risk management approaches, training, network testing and risk assessment.

Introduced under the landmark Telecom Act, which passed in 2023, the measures represent a significant regulatory step for the industry. Although the final rules incorporate some changes prompted by public consultations, experts say they still need more guardrails for government access to data.

Impact on user privacy

The obligation to provide user data to state authorities raises significant concerns among privacy advocates.

Contrary to the draft version of the rules, which could have allowed authorities to collect the content of people’s messages, the adapted version mainly permits the collection of user metadata. However, this metadata is still considered "extremely sensitive", according to Namrata Maheshwari, senior policy counsel at the digital rights organization Access Now.

“The law lacks clear restrictions on the government’s authority to collect such data, share it with other agencies, or store it without independent oversight,” Maheshwari told Recorded Future News.

Critical Review Of Al-Qa’ida, Past and Present: Operational Structure And Insurgency Strategies – Analysis

Dr. Mustapha Kulungu

Introduction

Al-Qa’ida, founded in 1988 during the Soviet-Afghan War, exemplifies the adaptability of transnational jihadist networks. Initially united against the Soviet invasion, the group attracted foreign fighters, including Osama bin Laden, who aimed to defeat foreign oppressors and establish a global Islamic caliphate. Over time, Al-Qa’ida developed a complex ideological framework, shifting its focus to opposing the West and its allies in the Muslim world.

The organization has transformed significantly, moving from a centralized command under bin Laden to a decentralized structure with regional affiliates following intense military pressure post-9/11. This evolution allowed Al-Qa’ida to maintain operational capabilities despite the loss of key leaders, with groups like Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) exploiting local grievances and instability to expand their influence.

Al-Qa’ida’s resilience relies on navigating complex, conflict-ridden environments and skillfully mobilizing local support through propaganda and recruitment strategies that resonate with regional realities. This has rendered it a persistent threat across the Near East, North Africa, and South Asia, where disenfranchised populations often see its affiliates as alternatives to ineffective governments.

This review will examine Al-Qa’ida’s historical and contemporary dynamics, focusing on its strategies and necessary adaptations for effective counterterrorism. Analyzing past engagements aims to identify approaches that mitigate Al-Qa’ida’s impact while promoting community resilience and addressing the grievances that fuel its appeal. Understanding Al-Qa’ida’s multifaceted nature is essential for developing comprehensive strategies to counter its goals and enhance security in the affected regions.

China backing wrong side in Myanmar’s civil war

Than N Oo

China’s rapid economic growth, accompanied by an equally swift expansion of its military over the past 30 years, has elevated it from a regional power to a global powerhouse.

The 2023 US Department of Defense Annual Report titled “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China (PRC)” acknowledged China as the only competitor with the capacity to reshape the international order, cementing its status as a superpower.

At the heart of China’s strategy for national rejuvenation lies the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to expand global transportation and trade linkages essential for its sustained growth and development. This strategy is intertwined with China’s Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) concept, ensuring that economic advancements can simultaneously bolster its military capacity, creating dual-purpose applications.

Among the six economic corridors under the BRI, the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) corridor—later rebranded as the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC)—is pivotal. CMEC links China’s Yunnan province to the Chinese-built Kyaukphyu deep-sea port in Myanmar’s Rakhine state, providing direct access to the Bay of Bengal.

This corridor is a cornerstone of China’s efforts to overcome the “Malacca Dilemma,” ensuring secure energy supplies and the steady flow of natural resources vital for its economic stability. CMEC also aligns with China’s “String of Pearls” strategy—a network of logistic support points in the Indian Ocean—and complements its “Two-Ocean” strategy.

Given this, it is imperative for China to maintain Myanmar within its sphere of influence to keep CMEC operational, regardless of who governs the country. However, recent developments suggest that China may be placing its bets on the wrong horse.

Chinese hackers are mobilizing, U.S. official says

A top U.S. cybersecurity official says Chinese-linked hackers are preparing for a major conflict with the United States.

Morgan Adamski, executive director of U.S. Cyber Command within the Dept. of Defense, said Friday at an industry conference that the hackers have gained access to critical information technology networks in anticipation of launching disruptive attacks in the event of conflict between the two nations.

The hackers could manipulate HVAC systems in server rooms or disrupt power and water to datacenters.

Federal agencies are, of course, working with potential targets to mitigate the issue. Adamski said the U.S. government is “laser-focused on degrading and disrupting PRC cyber operations worldwide." China, for its part, officially denies operations targeting the U.S.

One of the most prominent such operations was the so-called Salt Typhoon attack, which this year breached several U.S. telecom companies to steal call records, obtain law enforcement request information, and listen to communications working for both U.S. presidential candidates during the past election.

Five things to know about the Senate hearing on China and national security

Kelly Hill

Amid the ongoing revelations related to the Salt Typhoon cyber attack on telecommunications companies including AT&T, Verizon and Lumen, a Senate subcommittee recently held a hearing on the issues related China and cybersecurity, as well as economic security and national security.

The national security fallout from the Salt Typhoon hack continues to emerge. Politico reported this week that the Chinese hackers were able to access cellular logs on a “vast number of Americans” as a result of the hacks. The Wall Street Journal also has reported that Chinese hacking targets of Salt Typhoon included both the Harris and Trump campaigns, including Vice President Harris, VP-elect J.D. Vance and President-elect Donald Trump, as well as Senate staffers.

“Think of it for a moment—a foreign adversary attempted to wiretap both presidential campaigns during the past election. We are still learning each week about how sprawling and catastrophic this hacking campaign was, but what we know now—and it’s publicly known—should galvanize action now,” said U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), who is chair of the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Privacy, Technology and the Law. “We need to ensure these specific types of hacks will never happen again.”

Here are five things to know from that hearing.

–Tech firms have a large amount of risk associated with escalating U.S./China tensions. According to testimony by Isaac Stone Fish, CEO of Strategy Risks—which assesses enterprise business operations exposure to China across supply chain, partnerships and other factors, the largest U.S. technology firms have “above average exposure to China.” That includes Apple, Tesla, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon (but notably, Alphabet/Google has below-average exposure). Other firms with above-average exposure to China, according to Strategy Risks’ assessment and ranking, include Cisco, Motorola Solution, Amphenol and Dell Technologies.

Why South Korea is now a bigger player in US-China cyberwarfare

For three days earlier this year, defence personnel from more than 20 Nato and Indo-Pacific countries descended on the South Korean capital to work out what a regional cyberwar might look like.

In the APEX war gaming, critical infrastructure of multiple allies was attacked and participants had to share and verify information to come up with defensive strategies and countermeasures.

The APEX exercise is one of a series of multinational cybersecurity drills and summits that South Korea has taken part in over the past year.

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South Korea also attended the annual Nato-supported Cyber Champions Summit in Sydney, Australia in September, and will host the event next year. In addition, it took part in the Locked Shields live-fire cyber defence exercise with Nato members in April.

While China did not take part in any of these events, it was an obvious presence.

Observers say South Korea has been working more closely with the United States and its allies in a cybersecurity strategy aimed at China - one that looks set to deepen.

Chinese military observer Liang Yongchun said the impact of this growing cooperation on security in East Asia "should not be underestimated".

China’s Wagner? Beijing Establishes Private Security Company in Myanmar

Antonio Graceffo

China is collaborating with the Myanmar military junta to establish a joint security company to protect Chinese investments and personnel in Myanmar. On October 22, 2024, the junta formed a working committee to draft a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for the initiative, reflecting China’s growing concerns over the security of its projects, particularly those under the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.

As a key part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), CMEC comprises highways, railways, pipelines, and economic zones connecting China’s Kunming province to the deep-sea Kyaukpyu Port in Myanmar’s Rakhine State. The economic corridor is vital to Beijing, providing direct access to the Indian Ocean and bypassing the strategically vulnerable Malacca Strait, a chokepoint critical to China’s energy and trade supply lines, particularly in the event of a conflict with the United States. Yet unfortunately for Beijing, many CMEC projects pass through some of Myanmar’s most volatile conflict zones.

Since pro-democracy opposition armies declared a “people’s defensive war” in 2021, Chinese projects, including oil and gas pipelines, have come under increasing threat. Notably, in January 2022, a local People’s Defense Force attacked the $800 million Tagaung Taung nickel processing plant. More recently, the Chinese consulate in Mandalay was damaged in a bombing attack last month. While no group has claimed responsibility, both the People’s Defense Forces and the National Unity Government (NUG) have condemned the incident.

The announcement of a joint security company has sparked controversy in Myanmar, with many arguing that it could be perceived as a breach of the country’s sovereignty. Myanmar’s 2008 constitution prohibits the deployment of foreign troops on its soil, and the framing of this initiative as a Chinese “company” in a joint venture appears to be a strategic move to deflect accusations of a foreign military intervention. By structuring the company as private and partially Burmese, Beijing can claim arm’s-length deniability, distancing itself from direct involvement while potentially directing the security force to carry out state-derived foreign policy objectives.

How Trump Could Remake the CIA

Daniel Boguslaw

Political interference, mind control, domestic spying, and generally speaking, making America worse (again). These are just some of the many grievances Donald Trump and his allies have leveled against the intelligence community in recent months. They have been repeated on podcasts, on YouTube shows, and at rallies since Trump began a vendetta against spy agencies he says colluded to destroy his 2016 campaign and presidency.

Now, the full scope of Trump’s planned war on the deep state is coming into focus thanks to the president-elect’s nomination of John Ratcliffe and Tulsi Gabbard to top intelligence posts.

Taken together, interviews with current and former intelligence officers, a close read of the Project 2025 intelligence playbook, and the biographies of Trump’s top two intel picks reveal a radical, if confused, agenda for member agencies of the U.S. intelligence community. Among the proposals likely to be attempted inside the Central Intelligence Agency are a centralization of control over other agencies, an expansion of covert operations, and a shift from the War on Terror to competition with China.

Intelligence officers who spoke with Rolling Stone say that proposals like centralizing control of intelligence agencies known for infighting, scaling back zombie programs operating with little effect since the Cold War, and tamping down the War on Terror are all logical policies that would streamline agencies’ ability to advance national security.

But given Trump’s steadfast demand for total loyalty over all else, reforms that appear sound on their face have already provoked and enraged agencies bristling at the prospect of the incoming president yanking tight on their leash. “Everyone just wants to be left alone to keep running their operations without interference,” one intelligence officer said.

The Great Pokémon Go Spy Panic

Zach Dorfman

In 2016, as Hillary Clinton was imploring her supporters to “Pokémon Go to the polls,” America’s spy agencies had a different message for their employees: Your hunt for Pikachu, they warned, might be endangering national security—and Beijing’s prying eyes could be behind that Bulbasaur.

That summer, the Pokémon Go craze was in full bloom. Every day, tens of millions of Americans took to the streets, phones held aloft, impelled by the urge to “catch ’em all.” Hundreds of millions of users were playing the game worldwide.

The Pacific disinformation playbook

Meg Tapia

At the first Disinfo Pacific Conference in Brisbane this month, a striking contrast emerged between European and Pacific approaches to combating disinformation. While Europe has moved towards regulatory frameworks focusing on behavioural patterns and social media platform accountability, the Pacific region is largely focused on hyper-local resilience building.

That disinformation is a problem in paradise might come as a surprise to many. But the reality is that disinformation is just as prevalent across the Pacific as elsewhere in the world.

The Pacific Islands Forum has said that political instability, governance challenges, and limited resources continue to undermine democratic systems in the Pacific. Misinformation, disinformation, and foreign interference are making matters worse, further threatening regional sovereignty, social cohesion, and the stability of electoral systems.

Suddenly, everything was happening online. From live election results to government announcements, Facebook was the place to be.

This wasn’t always the case. Prior to 2017, social media uptake was sluggish. But the completion of submarine cable projects and telecommunication infrastructure investment by regional and international organisations drove a surge in social media uptake between 2017 and 2020. Cheap smartphone penetration alongside more affordable data plans meant countries such as Fiji, Nauru, Tuvalu, Samoa, and Marshall Islands experienced a rapid uptake in internet connectivity. Today, about 80 per cent of these countries’ populations are online – well above the global average.

Suddenly, everything was happening online. From live election results to government announcements, Facebook was the place to be. Despite virtuous efforts to improve digital connectivity – to lessen inequality and promote economic development – the dangers posed to the Pacific way of life became evident during the Covid-19 pandemic. Misinformation from outside the region, home-grown created or reconfigured information reflecting local traditions, biases, and beliefs, conspiracy theories, and harassment undermined information integrity and online safety.

In the 19th Century Disinformation Started Wars. Today, It Sways Elections | Opinion

Kristina Foltz

In 1896, Adolph Ochs purchased The New York Times and transformed it into the country's first serious newspaper. His slogan, "All the News That's Fit to Print," emphasized the Times' focus on serious journalism, differentiating the paper from the likes of William Randolph Hearst's San Francisco Examiner, whose yellow journalism, or more sensationalist ethos, dominated the press. The pinnacle of Hearst's yellow journalism was the headline, "Destruction of the War Ship Maine Was the Work of an Enemy!" referring to a sunk warship off the coast of Cuba. The unsubstantiated claim that Spain had buried a bomb in the U.S.S. Maine became the pretext for the Spanish-American War.

The Times' emphasis on facts and evidence became the gold standard for 20th century American journalism and a cornerstone of American democracy. It wasn't until the emergence of social media, little more than a decade ago, that fake news came back with a vengeance.

But today's disinformation ecosystem is different from the early days of yellow journalism. With more powerful and virulent tools, fake news can travel at near two thirds the speed of light, often without human regulation. Victims of disinformation can be sucked unwittingly into propaganda vortexes based on demographics and browsing histories. Trained artificial intelligence (AI) bots can invent infinite variations on lies. Fake news started wars in the late 19th century. Today, it sways elections.

Russia’s evolving information war poses a growing threat to the Wes

Kateryna Odarchenko, Elena Davlikanova

A number of Western officials and security agencies have recently warned of the growing challenges posed by Russian hybrid warfare. This threat is not new, of course. The Kremlin has long been engaged in acts of hybrid aggression against the West, with information warfare playing a central role in Moscow’s efforts to destabilize its democratic adversaries. With geopolitical tension now rising amid a jockeying for position ahead of anticipated Ukraine peace talks in early 2025, Russian information attacks look set to intensify.

It is important to acknowledge that Russian information warfare is highly innovative and continues to evolve at a rapid pace. Russia’s information offensives initially focused on the Kremlin’s own media platforms such as RT and Sputnik, but these outlets have proven relatively easy to identify, discredit, and restrict. In recent years, Russia has increasingly sought to promote its narratives via partners and proxies, as the recent scandal involving prominent US podcasters highlighted.

The pioneering use of social media troll farms to fuel divisions and distort public opinion remains a major component of Russian information warfare. In addition, the Kremlin engages in the large-scale creation of fake websites mimicking prominent news outlets, adding a veneer of credibility to Russian disinformation.

Russian narratives are also evolving. In 2022, the Kremlin’s attempts to depict Ukraine as a Nazi state largely failed to connect with international audiences, who struggled to understand how a country with a popularly elected Jewish president and no far-right presence in government could be in need of “de-Nazification.” Instead, Moscow has turned its attention to promoting the decline of the West and the need for a new multipolar world order.

Through a wide variety of traditional and digital media initiatives, the Kremlin has sought to highlight economic problems in Europe and North America, while pushing the idea of growing Western public dissatisfaction over issues such as identity politics and minority rights. Meanwhile, Russia positions itself as a bastion of traditional family values, social stability, and conservatism. This has struck a chord with alienated segments of society throughout the West.

The Green Gets Redder: Trump’s Climate Comeback

Just days after his second coming, Donald Trump has picked Lee Zeldin to lead the Environment Protection Agency. Zeldin is a staunch supporter of Trump’s policies and is likely to share similar sentiments on environmental issues as well. In his first term, Trump reportedly reversed over a 100 environmental laws, and has some famously controversial takes on the environment and climate change. This begs the question as to what his next term will bring, and what the repercussions will be for countries who have joint ventures in the climate action and energy space with the United States. For India, financial commitments and joint ventures targeting renewable energy initiatives might be at risk.

A mere glance at what the Trump administration did in his first term reveals his scepticism about climate science and emphasis on ‘energy dominance’. Much of what is considered factual, such as the consequences of fossil fuel emissions, was dismissed as a hoax. In addition to withdrawing from the 2015 Paris Agreement– which he has vowed to do again- Trump also repealed the Clean Power Plan, a key policy Obama put in place. Trump also promoted the use of fossil fuel production and opened up many previously restricted untapped areas for drilling, including certain portions of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Additionally, over 100 environmental regulations were weakened and repealed.

The Biden administration, on the other hand, was more focused on addressing climate change as both a domestic and global issue. On his first day in office, President Biden rejoined the Paris agreement, and went on to set ambitious targets for emission reduction. Biden also put the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) into place, which directed over 370 billion dollars to clean energy investments. He also restored regulations that Trump had removed that had been established since the Obama era, focused on regulating the oil and gas industry’s methane emissions. In addition to these significant initiatives, there were multiple executive orders and clean energy ventures that prioritised environmental and climate action. The coming weeks will be telling of how many of these initiatives Trump intends to remove.

Could Russian ‘hybrid warfare’ trigger NATO retaliation

Sarah Shamim

German intelligence chief Bruno Kahl said this week that Russia’s extensive use of “hybrid” warfare measures “increases the risk that NATO will eventually consider invoking its Article 5 mutual defence clause”, under which an attack against one NATO member is considered an attack against them all.

Hybrid warfare is the use of both conventional and unconventional means to create instability in countries without making it seem like an all-out war.

These kinds of tactics can include election interference, assassination plots and attacks on critical infrastructure, such as undersea cables, but they can be extremely difficult to prove.

So could these sorts of incidents really trigger retaliation against Russia by NATO countries?

On the digital frontlines, Ukraine creates cyber-attack training system

Richard Thomas

The digital domain is as critical to warfare in the modern battlespace as real-world operations. Credit: Smile Studio AP via Shutterstock

While Ukraine’s experiences on the frontlines of Russia’s war is providing Nato and allied countries with opportunities to take notes of real-world combat lessons, so too are operations the cyber domain offering valuable insight into Moscow’s digital grey-zone tactics.

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Ukraine has found finds itself combatting Russian operations in the digital domain on a daily basis, as Moscow seeks to leverage state and non-state tools at its disposal to meet its goals.

Delving into lessons learned in combatting Russian cyber-attacks, Ukraine has created a synthetic cybersecurity platform centre dubbed TRYZUB (Trident), intended to offer training experiences from what it termed “the trenches of the first-ever cyberwar”, via high-fidelity cyber-attack emulations.

The TRYZUB centre offers participants the role of a cybersecurity team facing cyber incidents from Gamaredon and Sandworm threat actors and related hacker groups, which have targetted sectors such as defence, energy, and other critical civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.

A View from the CT Foxhole: General Bryan Fenton, Commander, U.S. Special Operations Command

Sean Morrow, Don Rassler

General Bryan P. Fenton is a career Special Forces (Green Beret) Officer. He currently serves as the 13th Commander of U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) where he oversees all Special Operations for the U.S. Department of Defense. Before assuming command of USSOCOM, General Fenton served as the Commander of Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC). Prior to that, he was the Senior Military Assistant for two U.S. Secretaries of Defense.

General Fenton’s other general officer assignments include: Deputy Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; Commander of U.S. Special Operations – Pacific; and Deputy Commanding General of the U.S. Army’s 25th Infantry Division in Hawaii.

CTC: U.S. CT has been going through a more intense evolution over the past five years and the ‘Global War on Terrorism’ is a thing of the past. What are the top lessons you learned, and that you believe the CT community should take away, from the ‘Global War on Terrorism’ period?

Fenton: We have certainly seen an evolution in countering terrorism as we rebalance the needs of the country, but within the SOF [Special Operations Forces] enterprise, the CT mission is alive and well. As the adage goes, you may not be interested in terrorism, but terrorism is interested in you. While pressure on VEOs is crucial, we have learned that kinetic action alone is not enough to deter and defeat a radical ideology and that our actions must be informed by the root causes and needs of those who might be attracted to political violence.

Defending the homeland is still and will always remain the number-one priority for the Department; this is complementary to strategic competition and integrated deterrence. I view this as twofold: First, CT allows national attention to remain on the pacing threat without distraction, while directly supporting our teammates at DHS, FBI, and State to protect the homeland; second, CT allows us to continue valuable work with our international partners, while we protect our citizens abroad and carry the best practices forward into the future. This is especially the case with the threat of lone wolf attacks. One of the ways we couch our remit for CT and crisis response globally is that SOF helps our national leaders preserve the strategic focus for the future of the Joint Force, Department, and nation.

The definition of madness

Sam Freedman

One of the many issues with the Whitehall model of policymaking is that thematic failures are often missed. The focus is on solving specific sectoral challenges within departments so there is no one, bar a few overworked firefighters in number 10 and the Treasury, to spot similar screw-ups happening across different policy areas.

Over the last few months I’ve written several posts that feature one of these thematic failures: attempts to squash demand for state support in one place that have led to a big increase in demand elsewhere that’s a lot more expensive.

Take last month’s post about GP appointments. The fall in the number of appointments relative to population and need, plus reduced continuity of care, has led to a big jump in A&E attendances and emergency hospital admissions for preventable conditions.

Dealing with this is much more costly that it would have been to increase GP numbers and has also helped clog up the hospital system. A&E wait times are still rising – 11% of people last month waited more than 12 hours to be seen and there were over 130,000 more attendances than in the same month last year. The growing number of emergency admissions is also hampering efforts to reduce elective waiting lists.

When you shift demand from one place to another like this it’s hard to reverse. As the government is now having to find billions more to cope with the mess in hospitals there’s not enough available to add the amount of GP capacity necessary to get back to where we were (even if we could find enough GPs). Plus once people learn new habits it’s hard to get them to change back even if it’s in their interests.

The US Army's Vision of Soldiers in Exoskeletons Lives On

Jared Keller

Following decades of failed attempts and dashed dreams, the US Army is once again trying out powered exoskeletons to help soldiers haul munitions and equipment in the field.

After decades of research and development, the United States Army is taking yet another run at developing a powered exoskeleton to help soldiers carry heavy loads on the battlefield—but don’t expect a futuristic suit of combat armor straight out of Starship Troopers or Iron Man anytime soon.

Soldiers assigned to the Army’s 1-78 Field Artillery Battalion training unit at Fort Sill, Oklahoma, recently completed a three-day “proof of concept” evaluation of several off-the-shelf “exoskeleton suits” in late September and early October, officials confirmed to WIRED. The evaluation was overseen by the service’s Combat Capabilities Development Command (DEVCOM), the organization responsible for developing new technology for soldiers.

Official photos from the evaluation published to social media showed Advanced Individual Training students hauling artillery shells to and from a M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzer and M777-towed howitzer with telltale black exoskeleton harnesses contrasted against their camouflage uniforms, part of a field exercise undertaken “to assess the potential of human augmentation, improve soldier performance, and determine if these exoskeletons meet the demands of our warfighters,” as the service put it.

While a DEVCOM spokesperson declined to identify which commercially produced systems were evaluated by soldiers, the Army announced its intent in August to award a contract to exoskeleton maker SUITX to “give users experience of advanced soldier augmentation technologies,” according to a government notice. “This exoskeleton will serve as a critical tool for evaluating the potential benefits of robotic assistance in increasing soldier endurance, strength, and overall operational effectiveness.”

Another One Bites the Dust

Anushka Saxena

On November 28, 2024, Colonel Wu Qian, Director of the Information Bureau of and spokesperson for China’s Ministry of National Defense (MoND) announced that Miao Hua, a member of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and Director of the Political Work Department with the rank of General, is suspected of serious disciplinary violations. He further added at the widely covered press conference that the decision to suspend Miao Hua for investigation followed intense deliberation by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC).

Miao’s suspension comes at the heels of a report by the American media platform Financial Times (dated November 27) that Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun too, may have been placed under investigation for corruption, which seemed a bit too quick to have been true given that just on November 20 and 21, Dong was in Vientiane, Lao PDR, to attend the 11th ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus. Normally, in the Chinese system, public presence or absence is a marker for whether an official is still in the safety net or not, vis-à-vis corruption, disloyalty, or other grave violations of part discipline. One would remember that in the cases of former Foreign Minister Qin Gang and former Defence Minister Li Shangfu, their respective public absences before the stories of their official dismissal broke out, were 1 and 2 months. For now, suspicions regarding the investigation against Dong have been quashed by Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning in one of her regular press conferences (either November 27 or 28; the question regarding the same has been removed from the press releases), where she reportedly said that FT was “grasping winds and shadows” (“捕风捉影”).

But it is clear that a greater game is afoot, one where there is a clear internal strife within the CMC, and where Miao and Dong’s corruption-related investigations may be interlinked. This is not just a crisis in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) – it is the entire Chinese security apparatus house that is on fire.

Time to Eliminate the Houthi Threat

Monte Erfourth

The Red Sea is one of the world's most vital maritime trade routes, connecting the Indian Ocean with the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal, and providing a crucial artery for global commerce. It accounts for approximately 15 percent of the world's trade, a staggering statistic that underscores its geopolitical significance. Unfortunately, the security of the Red Sea is increasingly at risk due to the escalation of attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels, a group heavily backed by Iran and supported indirectly by both Russia and China. This alarming nexus of interests and alliances demands an urgent response from the international community if the stability of the Red Sea and the global economy is to be preserved.

Iran, China, and Russia: An Unholy Alliance with the Houthis

The Houthis, an Iranian-backed faction that controls large swathes of Yemen, have evolved into an increasingly potent threat to international shipping in the Red Sea. Their operations are supported by Iran, which provides military equipment, training, and strategic guidance. The Houthis have become more sophisticated over time, utilizing advanced drones, anti-ship ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles, some of which are supplied by Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Quds Force. Intelligence sources have revealed that Iran has facilitated talks between the Houthis and Russia, resulting in a deal to supply Russian P-800 Oniks anti-ship cruise missiles to the Houthis—a game-changing acquisition that significantly elevates the Houthis' capacity to threaten vessels in the region.

Russia and China, although not directly involved in the conflict, have played roles that exacerbate the situation. Russia has been an enthusiastic supplier of advanced missile technology, partly in response to its growing anti-Western alliance with Iran and China. Moscow's increasing involvement with the Houthis represents a strategic attempt to challenge the West, further complicating the crisis in the Red Sea.

Project Olympus Forges Critical Digital Pathways to Enable Interoperability

Joseph Clark and Army Maj. Wes Shinego

The Defense Department is moving rapidly toward the future of warfare in which decision advantage will reign as the decisive factor in deterring conflict, and when needed, defeating adversaries.

Military leaders have long recognized the imperative to maintain the information edge in an increasingly complex and distributed global security landscape.

Earlier this year, DOD announced it had reached a minimum viable capability of Combined Joint All Domain Command and Control, the department's approach to providing material and nonmaterial solutions to arm front line commanders with rapid access to actionable battlefield information across all warfighting domains and throughout the globe.

The capability represents not only a force multiplier for the Joint Force but will also provide the foundation for ever increasing interoperability between the U.S. and global network of allies and partners.

That ability to work seamlessly across warfighting domains and theaters with a range of partners is key to maintaining the United States' enduring strength around the globe. It remains a prime focus among military leaders that shape how the U.S. plans, trains and fights.

But achieving the reality of seamless integration for CJADC2 between the U.S. and its broad range of partners is not without its challenges.

Disparate technologies among forces along with policy hurdles have presented a perennial challenge for integrating partner nations onto a single network.

Microsoft Digital Defense Report: 600 million cyberattacks per day around the globe

In its annual Digital Defense Report, covering trends from July 2023 to July 2024, Microsoft highlights the alarming rise in cyberattacks during growing geopolitical tensions. The report reveals that Microsoft’s customers are facing an astounding 600 million attacks daily from both cybercriminals and nation-state actors. It also emphasizes how cyber operations are deeply intertwined with geopolitical conflicts.

“To effectively counter the rising tide of cyber threats, we must not only strengthen our digital defenses at every level, but also foster a deep, enduring commitment to cybersecurity principles. This commitment must span from individual users to corporate executives and government leaders, ensuring a united front against malicious cyber activity,” commented Anna Bar Lev, Senior Security Go To Market Manager for Southeast Europe at Microsoft.

The Biggest Changes of the Year

Microsoft reported 2.75 times increase in ransomware attacks compared to the previous year, but the percentage of organizations that are ultimately ransomed (reaching the encryption stage) has decreased more than threefold over the past two years. Attackers still rely on predictive human behaviors such as selecting easy-to-guess passwords, reusing them on multiple websites, and falling prey to phishing attacks. Password attacks make up 99% of all identity attacks.

Cyber-enabled financial fraud is rising globally, with new trends in payment fraud and the misuse of legitimate services for phishing and malicious activities. One alarming type of fraud is techscam, which tricks users by impersonating legitimate services or using fake tech support and ads. Techscam traffic surged 400% from 2021 to 2023, far outpacing the 180% rise in malware and 30% rise in phishing, underscoring the need for stronger defenses.