India’s Leap of Faith in Afghanistan: Tango With the Taliban

Shanthie Mariet D’Souza

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India has, for all practical purposes, joined the small number of nations that have discovered the necessity of doing business with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Sans official recognition, which under the circumstances is only of ceremonial importance, New Delhi’s “pragmatic policy” is bound to be seen as a source of legitimacy for the Islamic Emirate. New Delhi, in return, hopes to regain its lost leverage in Kabul.

The evolution of New Delhi’s policy has been slow, incremental, and yet, unidirectional as India acclimatizes itself to the winds of change in Kabul. All along, it has carefully underscored the concern for the common Afghans and provided humanitarian assistance. At the core of its efforts, however, is the strategic objective of safeguarding its national security interests amid the geopolitical flux that has once again reduced Afghanistan to a territory whose potential instability evokes fear but little genuine concern, and even less affirmative action.

In June 2022, less than a year after the Taliban capture of power, New Delhi made a dramatic policy U-turn with the deployment of a technical team to Kabul to “oversee the disbursement of humanitarian aid.” The decision strategically reactivated the embassy, which had been shut after the Taliban seized power on August 15, 2021. Following that, Indian officials have made periodic visits to Kabul. New Delhi has also received Afghan officials for administrative, governance, and technical training modules.

Solar Power: A New Opportunity for India-Taiwan Ties

Anushka Saxena and Rakshith Shetty

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India and Taiwan have a unique opportunity to forge a mutually beneficial partnership in the renewable energy sector, particularly in the solar power domain. Taiwan is home to major solar wafer producers like the TSEC Corporation and Green Energy Technology, which could significantly contribute to India’s ambitious renewable energy and battery research and development programs. The partnership also has the potential to create an offshore manufacturing base for Taiwan in India, enabling cheaper imports for quicker domestic deployment.

India aims to achieve 500 GW of installed electricity capacity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030, with solar power expected to account for over 80 percent of this capacity. However, meeting this target could drive India’s annual solar photovoltaic (PV) import bill from the current $ 7 billion, to around $30 billion, with most imports coming from China. In this regard, India can find a partner in Taiwan to de-risk its sustainable energy supply chains from China’s market-distorting dumping practices.

Similarly, Taiwan aims to install 20 GW of solar PV plant capacity by 2025. However, the target seems elusive, given that the current installed capacity stands at only 5.8 GW. The Taiwanese government has relied on “feed-in” tariffs, which enable businesses and homes to produce their own electricity through renewable sources in a cost-effective manner. The gap between demand for solar and Taiwan’s goals for renewable energy, however, remains massive.

U.S.-India under Trump 2.0: A Return to Reciprocity

Richard M. Rossow

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A new Trump Administration will take office in January. While the past is not necessarily a precedent, we can make some reasonable assumptions about how the bilateral relationship will evolve. Job creation and balancing trade will be strongly prioritized and may cause renewed tensions with India. The Trump Administration will likely want to see more direct reciprocity in exchange for assistance such as technology transfers. But we should expect continued focus on Indo-Pacific security and in attracting new investments into the United States. India can be an important partner on both fronts, which will provide ballast to the relationship.

Looking Back at Trump 1.0

During the last Trump Administration, U.S.-India ties fared well despite some real areas of tension. In particular, the defense relationship saw a number of concrete steps forward such as the creation of the tri-service exercise TIGER TRIUMPH, concluding negotiations on defense interoperability agreements, and relaxing defense export controls though steps like moving India to Tier-1 of the U.S. Department of Commerce’s “Strategic Trade Authorization” licensing list. Apart from these operational steps, the fact that the United States was more aggressively confronting China gave comfort to the Indian government that America’s commitment to Indo-Pacific security was not wavering, despite the political transition in Washington, DC. The nascent subject of a U.S.-China “G2 condominium” was largely put to rest. Strategic cooperation with India went beyond bilateral ties. Notably, the Trump Administration championed an elevation of the Quad (U.S., India, Japan, and Australia) to become a recurring cabinet-level meeting.

China maps out baseline claims over a contested South China Sea shoal with the Philippine

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A Chinese coast guard vessel stays beside suspected Chinese militia ships near Thitu island, locally called Pag-asa Island on November 6, 2024 ahead of a Philippine military multi-service joint exercise at the disputed South China Sea, Philippines. Aaron Favila/AP

China has published baselines for a contested shoal in the South China Sea it had seized from the Philippines, a move that’s likely to increase tensions over overlapping territorial claims.

The Foreign Ministry on Sunday posted online geographic coordinates for the baselines around Scarborough Shoal. A nation’s territorial waters and exclusive economic zone are typically defined as the distance from the baselines.

Both China and the Philippines claim Scarborough Shoal and other outcroppings in the South China Sea. China seized the shoal, which lies west of the main Philippine island of Luzon, in 2012 and has since restricted access to Filipino fishermen there. A 2016 ruling by an international arbitration court found that most Chinese claims in the South China Sea were invalid but Beijing refuses to abide by it.

Beyond the Revolution: Building a New Bangladesh

Rimon Tanvir Hossain

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Once touted as the “Iron Lady” of Asia, Bangladesh’s former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was both the longest-serving Bangladeshi head of state and the world’s longest-serving female. However, on August 5, 2024, her reign came to an unceremonious end as a student-led revolution, which started after the High Court Division of the Supreme Court of Bangladesh reinstated a quota system for government jobs on June 5, 2024, forced her to flee to India and resign from office. Today, “July 36” refers to the date of Hasina’s resignation and subsequent collapse of her Awami League government, which has also been heralded in pop culture as Bangladesh’s “Second Independence.” According to a report by the Human Rights Support Society, more than 30,000 people were injured and more than 875 were killed in the collective unrest, 77 percent of whom died from gunshot wounds.

While Nobel laureate and social entrepreneur, Dr. Muhammad Yunus’s appointment to lead the fifty-three-year-old nation—born after a revolution celebrated and strongly supported by Western capitals to provide Bangladesh a fresh start—was positively received at home and abroad, his task of assuring that the country’s institutions regain public trust, once captured by Hasina’s fifteen-year electoral autocracy, is daunting. The growing challenges ranging from Islamist parties, communal tensions, surging inflation, and inability to hold perpetrators of the revolution’s victims accountable seem distant from reaching the solutions the Yunus-led interim government promised: establishing reforms in the election commission, civil administration, and implementing judiciary and security forces in time for the upcoming elections.

China Should Be Worried About North Korea

Lee Hee-ok and Sungmin Cho

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Last month, the White House confirmed that North Korea—a country with few allies and little money—had sent thousands of soldiers to join Russia in its war against Ukraine. Pyongyang was already supplying Moscow with weapons: according to The Times of London, half of Russia’s shells used in the war have come from North Korea. But sending personnel marks a new level of coordination. There are other signs of warming ties, too. In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin made his first trip to North Korea in over two decades.

That proximity has irked China, North Korea’s main backer. Chinese officials fear that Russia’s influence over the insular dictatorship is growing at China’s expense. They also worry that the United States and its allies in Europe and Asia will strengthen military cooperation in response to Russia and North Korea’s newfound closeness. Over the past year, Beijing has chosen to react to Pyongyang’s collaboration with Moscow by publicly courting North Korea’s adversaries. For instance, in May, China held a trilateral summit with South Korea and Japan after a five-year hiatus. On the same day in June that Putin visited Pyongyang, Chinese and South Korean officials held a security dialogue in Seoul—the first such meeting in nine years.

Russia Is Running an Undeclared War on Western Shipping

Elisabeth Braw

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Russia—and China—had seemed to benefit from the Houthis’ attacks on shipping in the Red Sea because the militia spared their ships. But it turns out that Moscow has been more than a passive beneficiary. As the Wall Street Journal recently reported, Russia has been providing the Houthis with targeting data for their attacks. Now that Russia has crossed this red line of actively aiding attacks on Western shipping, other hostile states may start sharing military-grade data with proxies of their choice.

One of the U.N. Security Council’s five permanent members is actively supporting attacks on global shipping. It’s a stark violation of the maritime rules, which grant merchant vessels the freedom and right to sail not only on the high seas but also through other countries’ waters and through internationally recognized straits without having to fear, let alone experience, acts of aggression.

China's Hacker Army Outshines America

Micah McCartney & Didi Kirsten Tatlow

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Hacking competitions in China have surged over recent years, supported by strong government backing and rising public interest, raising alarm in the U.S., where officials are warning that the widening cyber skills gap is placing America at a strategic disadvantage and posing national security risks.

China has made great strides since President Xi Jinping's call for the nation to become a "cyber powerhouse" a decade ago. University programs in cybersecurity have been standardized, a National Cybersecurity Talent and Innovation Base capable of certifying 70,000 cybersecurity experts per year was established, and hacking competitions—many touting their alignment with Xi's "powerhouse" ambition—have proliferated.

"China has built the world's most comprehensive ecosystem for capture-the-flag (CTF) competitions—the predominant form of hacking competitions, ranging from team-versus-team play to Jeopardy-style knowledge challenges," the Washington, D.C.-based Atlantic Council think tank observed in a recent report.

Material world: How Europe can compete with China in the race for Africa’s critical minerals

Sarah Logan

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Critical juncture

Despite heightened focus in the West about dependence on China – and high-level efforts to recalibrate these relations at the strategic level – Europeans’ economic reliance on China has continued to grow in recent years. EU imports from China reached €515.9 billion in 2023, across a wide array of products, many of which are vital to advanced economies.

At the heart of these entangled relations is European states’ and economies’ dependence on China for the critical raw materials (CRMs) needed to produce green energy technologies, including solar modules, electric vehicle (EV) batteries, and permanent magnets for wind turbines. The central importance of these technologies today risks leaving Europe heavily reliant on other countries for their supply – an acute challenge when production is highly concentrated in China as strategic competition intensifies between China and the West.

To respond to this situation, the European Union has vowed to diversify its energy sources and build out CRM supply chains and processing capabilities that are unconnected with China (ex-China). The bloc has introduced an array of policies aimed at achieving this. “De-risking” supply chains is the way the EU terms its efforts to reduce its economic reliance on China. This de-risking approach encompasses the green energy technologies critical for the EU’s decarbonisation and energy security, as well as a range of other technologies, including in the military field. Managing European exposure to China in different domains is vital not only for Europe’s energy security, but also for the EU to retain and enhance its geopolitical and geoeconomic strength in a rapidly changing world.

How Iran’s attacks on Israel backfired, escalating regional conflict – opinion

NEVILLE TELLER

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Despite the many charges of aggression, mass murder, and worse that the Iranian regime chooses to level against Israel, there is no disguising the fact that it is Iran that seeks to destroy Israel, not the other way around.

On April 13, 2024, Iran – which essentially means the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – committed a major strategic blunder. Israel’s audacious attack on the Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus on April 1, 2024, took out seven Iranian military advisers, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in the elite Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IGRC).

Such an operation would normally have provoked Iranian ire and an armed response on northern Israel from Hezbollah. Not this time. Instead, the incident was the trigger for a fundamental shift in Iranian policy that has led to negative consequences for Iran, which are still to be fully worked through. They may, in the final analysis, prove existential.

Iran and War

George Friedman

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Last week, I wrote on the Middle East and promised a follow-up piece would come next. The U.S. election intruded. Now I’ll return to the second part on the Middle East.

We tend to view unrest as an internal event, usually contained in a given nation or region. But sometimes there are cases in which unrest spreads through fear or greed beyond a nation’s terminus, thereby changing the region and even the world beyond. Such is the case in the Middle East.

The process goes something like this: Internal unrest in a country creates fear in another country that the unrest will spread there. The fear then is that the unrest will generate military action in the other country. Both nations may adopt a defensive posture or be frightened enough to act aggressively. Fear and hope are the foundation and engine of war. Unrest is the generator.

It is commonly said that war is unlikely in this region because its nations are weak. Strength and weakness are relative, and these nations should be compared not to the United States but to each other. How strong one nation is relative to the other determines the outcome. Terrain and geography are constants, but fear has a remarkable historical ability to overcome them and does not make war impossible. Wars are the most possible human thing.

NATO-type Southeast Asian defense alliance not feasible at present

Jason Gutierrez

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A Southeast Asian defense alliance modeled after NATO and aimed at countering China may not be set up any time soon because the region’s nations would want to maintain good relations with the superpower, regional security analysts said.

The creation of more minilateral agreements, though, rather than multilateral ones like the 32-member North Atlantic Treaty Organization, are not only likely but may be more effective, they added.

A minilateral agreement is an accord between a small group of nations that have come together to achieve mutual goals or tackle shared problems, according to international relations experts.

For instance, a good example is a minilateral agreement renewed last year by the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia for joint patrols on their seas, said geopolitics expert Don McLain Gill.

Netanyahu approved pager attacks against Hezbollah, spokesman says

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A man, who was wounded when pagers used by Hezbollah detonated on Tuesday across Lebanon, receives treatment at Sidon Governmental Hospital, in Sidon, Lebanon September 20, 2024. REUTERS/Ali Hankir/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

JERUSALEM, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved pager attacks that dealt a deadly blow to the Iran-backed Lebanese armed group Hezbollah in September, Omer Dostri, spokesperson for his office, said on Monday.

The Israeli military, which has been engaged in cross-border fighting with Hezbollah since the start of the Gaza war in October 2023, at first declined to respond to questions about the detonations.

On Sept. 17, thousands of pagers simultaneously exploded in the southern suburbs of Beirut and other Hezbollah strongholds, in most cases after the devices beeped, indicating an incoming message.

A Hezbollah official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the incident was the "biggest security breach" for the group in nearly a year of conflict with Israel.

Among the victims rushed to hospital, many had eye injuries, missing fingers or gaping holes in their abdomens, Reuters witnesses saw, indicating their proximity to the devices at the time of detonation.

The End of American Exceptionalism

Daniel W. Drezner

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The only thing uncontroversial about Donald Trump is how he won his second term. Despite polls showing a statistical dead heat and fears of a long, drawn-out wait for election results, Trump was declared the winner early last Wednesday morning. Unlike in 2016, he won the popular vote as well as the Electoral College, improving his margins in almost every demographic. Republicans won a strong Senate majority of 53 seats, and they look likely to maintain control of the House of Representatives. To the rest of the world, the picture should be clear: Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement will define U.S. foreign policy for the next four years.

Any close observer of Trump’s first term should be familiar with his foreign policy preferences as well as his foreign policy process. However, there are likely to be three significant differences between Trump’s first- and second-term foreign policies. First, Trump will come into office with a more homogeneous national security team than he had in 2017. Second, the state of the world in 2025 is rather different than it was in 2017. And third, foreign actors will have a much better read of Donald Trump.

Ukraine Reveals ‘Intercepted’ Radio Communications Of North Korean Soldiers In Russia

Taejun Kang

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Ukraine has released an audio clip of what it says are intercepted radio communications between North Korean soldiers in Russia, as media reported that Russia had gathered 50,000 soldiers in its Kursk region, including North Korean troops, to attack Ukrainian positions there.

In the audio, uploaded by the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, or DIU, on YouTube on Sunday, soldiers can be heard exchanging coded terms in North Korean-accented Korean.

“Mulgae hana, Mulgae dul,” was one exchange, which translates as “Seal one, Seal two”.

In another recording, a soldier says, “wait,” apparently giving an instruction to a subordinate.

The DIU said it intercepted the radio communications on Saturday, adding that the signals were about “ordering them to return immediately.”

Ukraine and the United States estimate that North Korea has sent 11,000 troops to help Russia in its war against Ukraine, with these forces reportedly stationed in the Russian border region of Kursk, which Ukrainian forces aided in early August. Moscow has faced challenges in reclaiming territory from Ukrainian forces.

How Political Psychology And Political Economy Shape Great Power Politics – Analysis

Syed Raiyan Amir

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Great power politics has long been influenced by a complex interrelationship of psychological motivations and economic interests. Political psychology delves into how perceptions, biases, and ideologies drive the decisions of leaders and nations, while political economy analyzes how resources, trade dynamics, and economic policies define power relations and influence global strategies. Together, these disciplines illuminate the underlying forces shaping the ambitions, rivalries, and alliances that characterize great power politics, offering insights into the strategies employed by nations in pursuit of dominance and security.

The Historical Roots of Power and Psychology

Historically, great power dynamics have been influenced by both psychological and economic factors. The realpolitik approach, often attributed to Niccolò Machiavelli and Otto von Bismarck, emphasized power and pragmatism, grounded in a psychological understanding of self-interest and survival. Leaders like Bismarck strategically used economic power to consolidate alliances and counter rivals, illustrating how psychological acumen and economic prowess have been central to maintaining influence.

The United States Now Wants European Strategic Autonomy

Max Bergmann

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The election of Donald Trump for a second term will likely initiate a transformation in transatlantic relations. The administration’s agenda will mark a massive shift in U.S. post–Cold War policy toward Europe. Instead of seeking to preserve and maintain the United States’ preeminent role in Europe, a Trump administration is likely to pull back and largely leave Europe to Europeans.

But the Trump administration’s objective should not simply be to pull back from Europe but also to do so in a way that makes Europe stronger. This goal is achievable and does not require an expensive or exhaustive diplomatic effort. However, it does entail avoiding the “divide and rule” tactics that the United States has adopted toward Europe since the end of the Cold War, as well as supporting a common European effort toward defense. That might go against much of the incoming Trump administration’s DNA, but an abrupt pullback that leaves Europe in disarray is not in anyone’s interests and will inevitably prompt Europe to hedge in the U.S.-China rivalry. In short, the Trump administration should want a stronger Europe, not a weaker one, and that will require some engagement on its part.

Devastated Democrats Play the Blame Game, and Stare at a Dark Future

Reid J. Epstein, Lisa Lerer and Nicholas Nehamas

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A depressed and demoralized Democratic Party is beginning the painful slog into a largely powerless future, as its leaders grapple with how deeply they underestimated Donald J. Trump’s resurgent hold on the nation.

The nationwide repudiation of the party stunned many Democrats who had expressed a “nauseous” confidence about their chances in the final weeks of the race. As they sifted through the wreckage of their defeats, they found no easy answers as to why voters so decisively rejected their candidates.

In more than two dozen interviews, lawmakers, strategists and officials offered a litany of explanations for Vice President Kamala Harris’s failure — and just about all of them fit neatly into their preconceived notions of how to win in politics.

The quiet criticism, on phone calls, in group chats and during morose team meetings, was a behind-the-scenes preview of the intraparty battle to come, with Democrats quickly falling into the ideological rifts that have defined their party for much of the Trump era.

The chips are down: Trump 2.0, the EU and Ukraine

Ondrej Ditrych & Giuseppe Spatafora

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Much is at stake now for Ukraine and European security. With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, US policy towards both is poised to change significantly. Europeans must not succumb to doom and gloom or place false hope in last-minute ‘Trump-proofing’ measures, nor should they read too much into Putin’s wait-and see approach. They must get their act together, and fast.

The EU must demonstrate strong resolve in maintaining its military and diplomatic support to Ukraine. It is the only way to avoid the imposition of an unfavourable ‘peace’ settlement on Kyiv – a settlement that would only embolden the Kremlin, give it time to rebuild its forces, and further undermine European security.

Harsh realities

In the face of Trump’s historic success, EU decision-makers must contend with a number of harsh realities.

First, since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv has heavily relied on Washington’s military and financial assistance to defend against the aggression. US military aid reached €66 billion as of August 2024, far surpassing assistance to any other country. The EU’s share of military assistance to Ukraine has grown over time, but Kyiv still depends on Washington for some categories such as heavy weapons ammunition. The future of this crucial lifeline is now deeply uncertain, given Trump’s record of rallying Congress Republicans to block the supplemental assistance package until April 2024, directly contributing to the Ukraine’s armed forces’ current predicament.

Megacities: Key Strategic Terrain of the Future

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As we progress further into the 21st century, the world is undergoing an unprecedented urban transformation. By 2030, it is projected that cities will accommodate 60% of the global population and contribute to 70% of the world’s GDP. This rapid urbanization, particularly in developing nations, presents both opportunities and challenges. The strategic significance of megacities—urban areas with populations exceeding 10 million—cannot be overstated. These cities are becoming epicenters of human activity, economic growth, and, unfortunately, potential conflict. As such, megacities are emerging as key strategic terrain for future geopolitical dynamics.

Urban areas are expected to grow by 1.4 billion people over the next two decades, with the majority of this growth occurring in developing countries. Cities like Dhaka, Bangladesh, and Lagos, Nigeria, exemplify this trend, where rapid population increases are juxtaposed with inadequate infrastructure and resources. As urbanization accelerates, the risks associated with natural disasters, climate change, and social inequality will exacerbate existing vulnerabilities, creating fertile ground for illicit networks and potential conflict.

Location tracking of phones is out of control. Here’s how to fight back.

Dan Goodin 

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You likely have never heard of Babel Street or Location X, but chances are good that they know a lot about you and anyone else you know who keeps a phone nearby around the clock.

Reston, Virginia-located Babel Street is the little-known firm behind Location X, a service with the capability to track the locations of hundreds of millions of phone users over sustained periods of time. Ostensibly, Babel Street limits the use of the service to personnel and contractors of US government law enforcement agencies, including state entities. Despite the restriction, an individual working on behalf of a company that helps people remove their personal information from consumer data broker databases recently was able to obtain a two-week free trial by (truthfully) telling Babel Street he was considering performing contracting work for a government agency in the future.

Tracking locations at scale

KrebsOnSecurity, one of five news outlets that obtained access to the data produced during the trial, said that one capability of Location X is the ability to draw a line between two states or other locations—or a shape around a building, street block, or entire city—and see a historical record of Internet-connected devices that traversed those boundaries.

THE BATTLE FOR TRUTH: SOCIAL MEDIA'S ROLE IN ELECTIONS AND THE STRUGGLE AGAINST MISINFORMATION

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The Battle for Truth: Social Media's Role in Elections and the Struggle Against Misinformation

As the U.S. election season unfolds, social media platforms have become ground zero in the fight against misinformation, with tech giants like Google, Meta, and others taking drastic measures to curb the spread of false narratives. But with the damage already done, many analysts argue that these efforts may be too little, too late.

A Tightening Grip: Social Media Platforms Enforce Political Ad Bans

In response to mounting concerns about misinformation affecting the election, Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, recently enacted a temporary ban on new political advertisements. This move aims to stem the flood of misleading political content that could sway voters or incite unrest. Initially slated to end shortly after Election Day, the ban was extended through the week, signaling Meta’s recognition of the urgency to safeguard public trust in the democratic process.

Two Upstart Search Engines Are Teaming Up to Take on Google

Paresh Dave

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Ask the search engine Ecosia about “Paris to Prague” and flight booking websites dominate the results. Ecosia’s CEO, Christian Kroll, would prefer to present more train options, which he considers better for the environment. But because its results are licensed from Google and Microsoft’s Bing, Ecosia has little control over what’s shown. Kroll is ready for that to change.

The Berlin-based company, which donates its profits to tree planting, and its Paris-based competitor Qwant are announcing Tuesday that they will team up to develop an index of the web.

The for-profit joint venture, dubbed European Search Perspective and located in Paris, could allow the small companies and any others that decide to join up to reduce their reliance on Google and Bing and serve results that are better tailored to their companies’ missions and Europeans’ tastes. “We could derank results from unethical or unsustainable companies and rank good companies higher,” Kroll says of the eco-minded Ecosia.

Blocking the Blueprint: Technological Barriers Against 3D-Printed Firearms

Dr Yannick Veilleux-Lepage

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Introduction

Over the last decade, consumer 3D printing technology has advanced rapidly, driven by the expiration of numerous patents and the growth of a large, global online community of designers, tinkerers, and hobbyists. These developments have significantly influenced the 3D-printed firearm (3DPF) movement. What began as basic single-shot handguns has evolved into extremely sophisticated and reliable firearms. Alongside firearms, 3D-printed accessories such as magazines, suppressors, and optics have also advanced significantly. One particularly concerning trend is the rise of 3D-printed conversion devices (often known as auto-sears or switches)—small components that can convert semi-automatic firearms into fully automatic weapons.

While a significant portion of the 3D-printed firearm community operates lawfully in the United States, where the First and Second Amendments protect many such activities, these developments have not gone unnoticed by insurgents, terrorists, and extremists. Additionally, criminal networks worldwide have turned to 3D-printed firearms as both a lucrative source of income and a means of arming themselves.

Digital Warfare: The Baloch Liberation Army’s Tactical Use of Social Media in the Herof Attack

Sajid Aziz

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Introduction

This Insight explores the evolving nature of the Baloch separatist insurgency in Pakistan, with a particular focus on how militant groups like the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) have used platforms such as Rumble and Telegram to disseminate propaganda, project their guerilla capabilities, and sustain public interest in their militant activities. It also analyses the extremist group’s messaging strategies, the role of encrypted communication tools in bypassing traditional media gatekeepers, the challenges posed by cross-platform information sharing and the implications for Pakistan’s counter-insurgency efforts.

On 3 September 2024, the BLA, a separatist militant group fighting for an independent state in Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest and most marginalised province, shared a video on its Telegram channel. It begins by showing a dummy paramilitary base, with its layout carefully mapped out. It includes miniaturized structures, vehicles, a walkway, and a small replica of a helicopter. The video also features the leader of the mission, with a stick in hand as he briefs his comrades. The camera then shifts to focus on one of the two gates of the mock base, where an image of Mahal Baloch, a female suicide bomber, pops up. A few moments later, a silver car parked outside the gate explodes, spilling a plume of smoke and dust into the air. Following this, a new version of Bella Ciao, rendered in the Balochi language, is played with lyrics glorifying the Baloch militants. Later on, the video transitions to red spots on a Google map, marking the districts targeted in attacks, followed by raw footage of actual assaults.