Can India Become a Developed Economy by Mid-Century?

ANNE O. KRUEGER

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At an economics conference in the early 1960s, one speaker began his presentation on development by citing India as an example. Before he could continue, an economist interrupted and asked: “What other country in the world is like India?” The room fell silent. To this day, this question remains unanswered.

Earlier this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that India aims to achieve developed-country status by 2047, the centenary of its independence from the British Empire. This ambitious goal, which could transform the Indian economy and reshape the global economic landscape, has generated widespread excitement.

But reaching this milestone is no small feat. Conservative estimates suggest that India’s per capita income growth would need to outpace China’s by 3.5 percentage points each year to meet Modi’s 2047 target. While India has experienced strong annual growth of 6-8% in recent years, the economy is already showing signs of slowing. Moreover, even if a slowdown can be averted, sustaining this growth momentum over the next two decades will be challenging.

Don’t Dismiss the BRICS

JOSCHKA FISCHER

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It would be a big mistake for the West to dismiss the recent BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) summit in Kazan – Russia’s unofficial “Islamic” capital – as an anti-Western sideshow of little consequence. Western governments might like to believe that the gathering showed a lack of unity and substance, but the reality is more complicated.

China, Russia, Brazil, and India established the BRICs in 2006 (South Africa joined in 2010) as a counterbalance to the G7, the club of leading Western industrialized countries, and to the US-dominated global order more broadly. While the initiative was never taken seriously in the West, the BRICS have evolved into a multilateral platform not only for countries like China and Russia – which want to end Western dominance and, in Russia’s case, establish a new, explicitly anti-Western global order – but also for more neutral emerging powers.

Moreover, the grouping recently expanded to include not just Iran and Ethiopia but also Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, which have a strong interest in good relations with the United States and other Western governments (Saudi Arabia has accepted an invitation to join but has not yet formally done so). It therefore has made progress toward its goal of serving as a multilateral platform that is independent of the West and all economies reliant on the dollar or the euro.

Taliban 2.0 losing its grip on Afghanistan

Chris Fitzgerald

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Afghanistan’s Taliban faces growing opposition to its three-year post-conflict rule, rising threats that are gnawing at the stability the one-time insurgent group has sought to impose on the nation.

The Islamist regime appeared to be riding high just recently in celebrating the third anniversary of its second time in power with a military parade showcasing fighter aircraft and weapons seized after the US-led coalition withdrew in chaos in August 2021.

But behind the celebration and military flexing, the Taliban is contending with potent challenges on multiple fronts. Crucially, the Taliban has wholly failed to rein in the Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) jihadist group, which seeks to create a caliphate across South and Central Asia.

IS-K was responsible for the deadly attack outside of Kabul’s airport on August 26, 2021, that killed 170 Afghans and 13 US military personnel amid the chaotic withdrawal of Western forces.

Post-Truth and National Security: Background and Options for a New Administration

Gary L. Geipel

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Why This Matters

“Post-truth” describes an information environment characterized in particular by “truth decay,” to use a term coined by RAND scholars, in which verifiable facts are widely ignored or distrusted—replaced by opinion if not outright invention.[1] In this author’s larger analysis, the major components of our post-truth environment are (1) the embrace of “narratives” over fact-based accounts of the world, (2) increasing “tribalism,” and (3) a breakdown of corrective institutions, leading to the “entrenchment” of these conditions on a massive scale.[2] See Figure 1 for a summary graphic useful throughout this paper.

Based on the 2024 U.S. presidential election campaign—as thoroughly tribal and narrative-based as any in recent history—readers may find the notion that a new administration will care about “post-truth and national security” humorous at best. As president, however, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump will be able to bask in the forgiving waters of their post-truth campaigns. Faced with actual decisions, a Harris or Trump administration will need to sort fact from torrents of fiction—or face potentially immense consequences. Where U.S. national security is concerned, the challenges and risks of post-truth continue to grow apace. Impressionistic, social-media-borne understandings of conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, for example, already have as much influence on U.S. policy as verifiable information and longstanding national or alliance interests. The next administration will face constant decisions about whether to ignore, manage, or try to shape a digital information environment full of alternative realities.

US to Receive Satellite Jammers to Counter China, Russia Next Year

Giulia Bernacchi

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The US will receive a weapon next year designed to jam Chinese and Russian satellites in the early stages of a potential conflict, the US Air Force told Bloomberg.

The technology — a L3Harris-developed electronic warfare system called “Meadowlands” — was originally scheduled for delivery in 2022.

Meadowlands can jam transmissions from satellites in orbit by using ground-based radio frequency units.

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The US currently employs 16 L3Harris Counter Communications System (CCS) mobile platforms that can shut down an adversary’s satellite connection, strategically positioned and operated by the Space Force and Air National Guard.

An upgraded version of the CCS, Meadowlands could be deployed and operated in battlefield scenarios, disrupting links to adversary satellites overhead that may be surveilling or targeting US forces on the ground.

Its reversible functionality allows operators to temporarily disrupt satellite operations and restore them when necessary.

Inside The CIA’s (Largely) Secret Role In The Tibetan Resistance – Analysis

Tenzin Pema, Dorjee Damdul, Passang Dhonden, and Lobsang Gelek

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High up in the Southern Rocky Mountains of Colorado, at 9,200 feet, lies Camp Hale – widely known as the birthplace of backcountry skiing and the training grounds of the U.S. Army’s 10th Mountain Division soldiers who fought the Nazis in World War II.

Lesser known, however, is the camp’s storied past as the CIA-operated secret training facility for Tibetan resistance fighters in the early 1960’s.

The Tibetan fighters who trained there – from 1958 to 1964 – were a part of a nationwide armed resistance movement in Tibet against Communist China.

Sixty years after the end of the operation, Camp Hale has yielded a new secret. Called “The Ranch” by the CIA and fondly referred to as “Dumra,” or garden, by the Tibetans, it was the training ground for at least 259 Tibetan fighters who were then parachuted back into Tibet and what is today Nepal to aid the Tibetan resistance against China.

Yet, until recently the exact location of the CIA’s training facility for Tibetans was lost to history. Quite like the story of Tibet’s armed resistance against China and the CIA’s role in it, it had remained shrouded in secrecy for many decades.

Israel's attack on Iran: What we know so far

Sondos Asem

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Israel launched a long-anticipated attack on Iran in the early hours of Saturday, 25 days after Iran carried out its largest-ever attack on Israel.

Contrary to earlier suggestions by Israeli politicians, the attack did not target nuclear or other strategic facilities.

“This Israeli response is somewhere in the mid-range of what it could have conducted - considerably more robust than its response to Iran’s previous attack in April, but not going as far as targeting key infrastructure or nuclear facilities,” said Ali Vaez, Iran Project director at the International Crisis Group.

“The questions now are first, whether this is the full scope of its response, and second, whether Tehran will absorb the hit and try to draw a line under this exchange or up the ante again with a counter-response,” he told Middle East Eye.

Here is what we know so far about Saturday's attack.

Iran reacts to Israel’s direct retaliation - Analysis

Behnam Ben Taleblu

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Once again, in 2024, history was made in the Middle East.

On October 25, Israel took credit for a long-expected military retaliation against the Islamic Republic of Iran. The attack reportedly involved over 100 planes striking 20 targets in three separate waves. In so doing, it constituted the first-ever direct and overt Israeli strike against Iranian military sites. (Note: Israel had not publicized or claimed an earlier attack against an Iranian radar installation on April 19, which was in response to Iran’s first drone and missile salvo at Israel earlier that month).

Iran’s official response in the first few hours amounted to shrugging its shoulders, attempting to spin defeat as victory and downplay the strikes. “The skies are in Iran’s fist,” declared Shargh, a reformist daily newspaper, in a large headline above the fold. “Iran’s defenses are superior to Iron Dome,” bragged the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA). “The false-promise of the Zionists,” proclaimed Resalat, a Tehran daily newspaper, in an apparent reference to the operation name (True Promise 1 and 2) of Iran’s April and October missile attacks against Israel.

Iran needs a new national-security strategy

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IT WAS TYPICAL Ali Khamenei: the man who makes the final decisions in Iran did not want to make one. On October 27th the supreme leader gave a speech about Israel’s air strikes on Iranian military facilities the previous day. It was a weighty moment: never before had the Jewish state overtly bombed the Islamic Republic, despite their decades-long shadow conflict. Yet Mr Khamenei’s words were muted. The Israelis, he vowed, would be made to understand the power of Iran. What that meant was up to others to decide: “Our officials should be the ones to assess and precisely apprehend what needs to be done,” he said. It was not a call for calm, but nor was it a declaration of war.

Israel’s attack leaves Iran with a difficult dilemma

Emile Hokayem

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The Israeli strike that took place in the early hours of October 26 had been expected ever since the massive Iranian ballistic missile attack of October 1. What wasn’t known was its precise timing or the targets the Israeli leadership would pick. It will take a few days for a full picture of the damage done to emerge, but this much is clear: the attack was, by design, limited in scope, but nevertheless significant in impact.

The weeks of uncertainty over Israel’s choice of targets had made everyone — from the White House to Arab corridors of power to financial markets to expatriates in the Gulf — jittery and fearful of a potential expansion of the conflict. At the higher end were leadership sites, nuclear facilities and energy installations. In the mid-range of the options were military sites, including air defence systems and missile and drone production factories.

Targeting the former would have meant risking all-out war, which no country wanted. Choosing the latter was a way to tell Iran to go home or else.

Israel restored deterrence against Iran…for now

Amos Yadlin

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Nearly a month after Iran’s October 1 missile attack, Israel responded early Saturday morning with an unprecedented, wide, and publicized Israeli strike on Iran. The attack brought Tehran into the line of fire for the first time since the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. A year after the Simchat Torah catastrophe, Israel has achieved yet another significant success, strengthening its deterrence against Iran and across the region. However, it is essential to remember that the military achievements across all arenas have not yet been translated by the political echelon into arrangements that would improve Israel’s long-term strategic position. It is equally crucial to temper our perspective on these accomplishments when considering a formidable nation like Iran, which has extensive missile capabilities, strategic patience, and a willingness to sacrifice.

In this strike, the Israel Defense Forces demonstrated an operational capacity normally reserved for major powers, involving complex planning, high-quality intelligence, and use of large-scale munitions over distances of 1,400-1,600 kilometers, crossing intermediary countries’ airspaces with in-air refueling. Israeli Air Force jets and the munitions they carried managed to penetrate Iran’s defense systems, hit their targets precisely, and return safely, after successfully striking approximately 20 high-value military and security targets across Iran.

The eurozone economy is not dead (yet)

Carlo Boffa and Johanna Treeck

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The eurozone economy showed surprising strength in the third quarter, defying the narrative that the bloc is heading for a protracted slowdown.

The eurozone’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.4 percent between July and September, beating an analyst consensus of 0.2 percent, according to preliminary estimates published by the European Union's statistics agency. That represents an acceleration from 0.2 percent in the previous quarter.

Concerns over the health of the economy intensified over the summer, amid signs of a sharp slowdown in manufacturing. Such fears, along with a marked drop in inflation, have since led the European Central Bank (ECB) to step up the pace of interest rate cuts to provide relief to the economy.

The ECB has repeatedly argued that consumer spending would increasingly support growth, against a backdrop of slowing inflation and rising real incomes, and it’s likely to take the news as vindicating that argument.

Don't Let Russia Win the Ukraine War

Steven Pifer

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Russia after War with Ukraine: How Large a Threat?: Russia today poses a significant military threat facing Europe and the trans-Atlantic community. The Kremlin’s barbaric, unnecessary war of aggression against Ukraine, the largest, bloodiest conflict in Europe since World War II, will continue for some time, but it will not last forever. What kind of threat might Russia pose to Europe after the war concludes?

The answer: it depends.

Does Russia Win or Lose in Ukraine?

While the Russian military has momentum on the battlefield, one should not overestimate their progress. The Russian army occupies only a bit more Ukrainian territory than it did in January of this year, and far less than it did in mid-2022. That is not to say that Ukraine is winning, but the Ukrainians remain determined in what they regard as an existential fight. It would be a mistake to count them out.

Sinwar’s Death and the Escalating Gaza Conflict

Paulo Aguiar

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The assassination of Yahya Sinwar, a top Hamas leader responsible for orchestrating the October 7 attacks on Israel, marked a significant yet complex moment in the ongoing conflict. While Israel celebrated Sinwar’s death as a form of justice, it did little to resolve the deeper challenges that have entangled the country in Gaza. Sinwar’s removal from the scene is not a turning point but a piece of a much larger puzzle – one that involves military, political, and humanitarian dimensions, all of which continue to evolve in ways that make long-term stability elusive.

The Symbolism and Limits of Sinwar’s Death

Yahya Sinwar wasn’t just another leader of Hamas; he embodied the group’s relentless and often brutal resistance. His central role in orchestrating the October 7 attacks, which left over 1,200 Israelis dead and saw hundreds taken hostage, made him Israel’s most wanted man. When he was assassinated, it was seen as a major victory for those seeking justice for the atrocities committed by Hamas.

Behind the Curtain: The big media era is over

Jim VandeHei & Mike Allen

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The mainstream media's dominance in narrative- and reality-shaping in presidential elections shattered in 2024.

• The future of news and information is upon us. Welcome to the shards of glass election — and news era.

Why it matters: How and where Americans get informed has broken into scores of pieces — from young men on Joe Rogan's podcasts, to suburban women following Instagram influencers.

Both campaigns have targeted small, often little-appreciated shards to reach hyper-specific pockets of potential voters. The campaigns are doing this with unorthodox, sometimes lengthy media appearances and precision ad targeting.

• Former President Trump reached way more potential male voters with his three-hour Rogan conversation (33 million views over the weekend) than he could have with a dozen or more appearances on Fox News, CNN and MSNBC combined. All three cable news networks skew very old in viewership, with median ages ranging from 67 to 70.
• Vice President Kamala Harris reached more young women on Alex Cooper's "Call Her Daddy" podcast, a show about sex and relationships, than she could on CBS' "60 Minutes" and ABC's "The View" combined. Both shows skew very old, too.
• Memes, prediction markets and long-form podcast interviews shape the conversation as surely as any front page.

Russia blurring lines between physical and cyber war on the West

David Kirichenko

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Over the past few years, Russia-affiliated hackers have conducted attacks against critical American and European infrastructure networks and disrupted hospital operations across the US. The scope and boldness of these attacks have increased as Russia seeks to expand its war against Ukraine and its supporters on multiple fronts.

In recent years, Russia has not only focused on waging cyber war on Western states but has attempted to infiltrate the heart of the internet through open-source software. The heads of MI6 and the CIA made a joint statement highlighting that Russian intelligence has been conducting a “reckless campaign of sabotage throughout Europe.”

In January 2024, Russian hackers targeted a water facility in rural Texas, causing a water tower to overflow. Similar malicious activities were detected in other towns in north Texas. In March 2024, President Biden’s administration warned US governors about escalating cyberattacks on water and wastewater systems. Further cyberattacks occurred in Indiana and targeted healthcare provider Ascension in May.

Ukraine: What Next?

Lawrence Freedman

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I have managed to pose for myself a question that is impossible to answer. It might be easier to answer when we know who has won the presidential election, although even then it will probably still be unwise to draw definite conclusions. Predicting the course of a war is a foolish thing to try to do, especially without access to the situation on the frontlines or the most secret conversations in the relevant national capitals.

The history of this conflict is already littered with discredited expectations, both optimistic and pessimistic. Most importantly, what happens next depends on decisions that have yet to be made. Governments still have choices.

Yet this question of ‘what next?’ is hard to duck because it is asked so regularly and so urgently that it is not one that can be easily put aside. There is currently quite a lot of doom around as people ask how long Ukraine can cope with the Russian onslaught and whether it is time to consider some compromise peace. This line of commentary often assumes that a compromise peace could be readily found if only Kyiv would abandon its dreams of total victory and appreciate the seriousness of its position. The compromise peace those urging this course usually have in mind is not, however, on offer. It bears very little relationship to the one that Putin proposes, which involves no compromises at all. He only demands Ukraine’s surrender.

North Korea’s Out-of-Theatre Deployment

Mick Ryan

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In the past 24 hours, the US administration has verified that North Korea is deploying troops to Russia, with the possibility of them fighting in their war against Ukraine. Ukrainian and South Korean government sources have previously reported that at least 1500 North Korean troops, and possibly up to 10,000, are part of this initial deployment.

The mission of the North Koreans remains a mystery. They could be used in occupation duties behind the front lines in Russian-occupied Ukraine. Alternatively, the North Koreans could be used as front-line troops in the eastern offensive by Russian ground forces, or part of Russia’s campaign to push Ukrainian troops out of Kursk. Given the recently signed Russia-North Korea defence pact, Kursk seems like a logical destination for the North Koreans.

They are likely to be a logistical burden for the Russians and there will be cultural, doctrinal and tactical challenges with the integration of the North Koreans into Russian ground formations. Given the size of the North Korean contingent, they are unlikely to have a decisive impact on the trajectory of the war in Ukraine. Russia is currently suffering around 1200 casualties a day in Ukraine. The North Koreans represent about a week’s human expenditure by Russia.

How demagogues destroy democracy: a step-by-step global guide

John Keane

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It’s a sign of our troubled times that when asked about the health of their democracies, millions of citizens curse politicians, complain about poor government performance, and express fears that their democracies are fast sliding towards a cliff’s edge (Alliance of Democracies 2024). Across the globe, they say that they’re especially worried about matters such as inequality, social polarization, political disorder, and the rise of extremist leaders. They make special mention of events such as the January 6 meltdown moment in the United States, when armed and angry protesters, hellbent on overturning an election result, stormed a legislature, cheered on by a demagogue president and his buddies.

They also mention crunch points of the kind that gripped Brazil two years later, when supporters of Jair Bolsonaro—refusing to concede his election defeat and calling for military intervention— stormed a presidential palace, destroyed art works, hurled broken furniture through shattered windows, ransacked Supreme Court rooms, and, just for the hell of it, switched on sprinkler systems to flood parts of Brazil’s Congress building.

These citizen anxieties about mob-rule moments are well-founded. They remind us of the great fragility of democracy—above all, that while building a democracy is a tough task that can take at least a lifetime, its destruction, or “democide,” is much easier and can happen faster (Keane 2009). Indeed, it has happened many times in the history of democracy. Democide always outpaces demogenesis, but the destruction of democracy’s spirit and substance typically never happens in a trice. This is the troubling truth of the demagogue-inspired insurrections we’ve seen in the United States, Brazil, and other countries in recent years: They’re not “sudden death” moments but single acts in a much lengthier traveling circus of political vanities, blustering fun, social decay, and lust for revenge—set against a backdrop of hunger for power, wealth, and fame.

How the fog of war in Ukraine increases the risk of escalation

Stephen J. Cimbala &  Lawrence J. Korb

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Discussions of escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia have become more frequent in recent months. One such discussion occurred in September during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s latest visit to Washington, when some government officials and analysts emphasized the risk of nuclear war between NATO and Russia.

The possibility of nuclear war growing out of this conflict is a serious concern. But an all-out nuclear war is not necessarily the only, or most likely, means by which this war could expand and escalate up to nuclear use. The controversy surrounding Ukrainian demands for permission to use NATO long-range missiles for attacks deeper into Russia poses a major risk of escalation. Likewise, changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine as the war continues—and its interpretation by Western allies—could make a nuclear first use more likely. Finally, non-nuclear forms of expansion of the war—whether they have already occurred or not—could pose significant challenges in moving toward de-escalation and an eventual peace agreement.

Israel Retaliates: What's Next?

Assaf Zoran

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After years of fighting a covert shadow war based on the use of proxies and clandestine operations, Israel and Iran are in a new phase of direct military conflict. This shift undermines the use of ambiguity, the possibility of denial or containment, brings the region closer to a boiling point, and increases the importance of diplomacy. The large scope and sophistication of Israel’s attack on October 25, alongside the nighttime targeting of multiple military sites throughout Iran, highlight a nuanced approach: a willingness to risk a wider confrontation while still facilitating de-escalation and aiming to avoid an all-out war.

The weakening of Hezbollah and Hamas and a desire to target what Jerusalem perceives as the “octopus’ head” rather than just its proxy “tentacles” drive Israel's recent actions. This approach is bolstered by public support, as Israeli society has radicalized and appears to have accepted the costs associated with regional fighting since the October 7 events. By taking direct responsibility and showcasing offensive independence, defense cooperation with the United States, operational superiority, and intelligence accuracy, Israel aims to deter further direct Iranian assaults and cut the sinews connecting Iran with its proxy network.

Will anyone miss Rishi Sunak? He represented the politics of conviction

Richard Vinen

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Rishi Sunak is creeping out of the Tory leadership like a mouse walking past a sleeping cat. This is a shame because his departure is significant, marking the end of a political era that began in the Eighties. Sunak’s hero is the former chancellor Nigel Lawson, who served under Thatcher from 1983 to 1989. At first glance, this seems odd. Lawson was more flamboyant than Sunak. He was also, in formal terms, less successful. Sunak has been and gone as prime minister at the age of 44. Lawson entered Parliament for the first time in his early forties and did not get into the Cabinet until he was almost 50.

SpaceX Has a Plan for Starlink to Hit Gigabit Speed

Jon Brodkin

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SpaceX is seeking approval for changes to Starlink that the company says will enable gigabit-per-second broadband service. In an application submitted to the US Federal Communications Commission on October 11, SpaceX claims the requested "modification and its companion amendment will enable the Gen2 system to deliver gigabit-speed, truly low-latency broadband and ubiquitous mobile connectivity to all Americans and the billions of people globally who still lack access to adequate broadband."

SpaceX said it is seeking "several small-but-meaningful updates to the orbital configuration and operational parameters for its Gen2 space station authorization to improve space sustainability, better respond to evolving demand, and more efficiently share spectrum with other spectrum users."

SpaceX wants to lower the altitudes of satellites "at 525 km, 530 km, and 535 km to 480 km, 485 km, and 475 km altitude, respectively." The reconfiguration will increase the "potential maximum number of orbital planes and satellites per plane" while keeping the planned total number of second-generation satellites at 29,988 or less. The FCC has so far approved 7,500 Gen2 satellites.

The Next AI Debate Is About Geopolitics

Jared Cohen

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Where industrial revolutions happen can reshape global affairs. Britain’s Industrial Revolution made London the center of an empire upon which the sun never set. The digital age took off in Silicon Valley, making the United States home to world-leading technology companies. But if AI leads to the next industrial revolution, that revolution will have been global from the beginning. And in the most chaotic period in world affairs since at least the Cold War, building the infrastructure to sustain the AI revolution is a geopolitical test that companies and countries alike will need to pass.

AI is a general-purpose technology. But unlike previous general-purpose technologies, such as electricity or steam engines, AI-enabled tools proliferated so quickly that cutting-edge innovations became widely available almost overnight, in the form of chatbots, image generators, and—increasingly—virtual co-pilots. The AI industry also depends on a network of global commercial partners, including not only U.S. and Chinese technologies, but also Taiwan’s semiconductor fabrication plants, extreme ultraviolet lithography machines made in the Netherlands, and other critical supply chain inputs. Competition over AI has so far been dominated by debates about leading-edge semiconductors, but the next phase is also about geography and power. Specifically, where can the data centers that power AI workloads be built? And who has the capital, energy, and infrastructure needed to power the data centers where AI workloads run?

Laser, microwave, and other directed-energy weapons ready for the battlefield

Jamie Whitney

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Perhaps no technology has shaped the 21st-century battlefield as profoundly as the drone. These uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs), along with their land and sea counterparts, have redefined the way wars are fought by providing military forces with unprecedented capabilities in surveillance, precision targeting, and intelligence gathering -- all while reducing the risk to their own personnel. Drones have made complex operations more efficient and less costly, enabling militaries to strike with pinpoint accuracy and maintain a persistent presence over the battlefield.

As the century progresses, the influence of drones continues to expand beyond traditional state actors. Non-state groups and non-peer adversaries increasingly have adopted this technology, leveraging it to level the playing field in conflicts around the world. With commercial drones becoming more accessible, these actors can conduct reconnaissance, drop bombs, and challenge conventional military forces in ways that previously were unimaginable.

The influence of drones flows across all domains of warfare. Loitering munitions, or "Kamikaze drones," have disrupted traditional force structures by providing smaller, more agile units with the ability to strike high-value targets such as tanks, artillery, and command centers.