Indian Strategic Studies: 10/18/24

18 October 2024

Elite Dhaka students march with black ISIS flags—it reeks of Hizb ut-Tahrir

Ahmede Hussain

This week, a couple of hundred students in Bangladesh’s capital Dhaka brought out a procession under the banner of ‘Conscious Teachers and Students’, holding what looked like the flag of the terrorist outfit ISIS—the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. And this wasn’t the only such march in the city.

The 6 October procession came from students of St Joseph Higher Secondary School and College, one of seven colleges in Dhaka with an A+ ranking and run by Catholic missionaries. They marched to the national parliament and demanded the establishment of a caliphate in the country.

A few days before this, students of Notre Dame College, another A+ institution run by Catholic missionaries, had carried out a similar procession— this time to protest against an alleged derogatory comment made by a Hindu priest about Islam. They too demanded the establishment of a caliphate. And in yet another procession, students from Wills Little Flower School, an institution that follows the University of London curriculum, also waved the black ISIS banner and echoed the caliphate call.

Bangladesh: Durga Puja Pandals On Target, Dhaka Reports 35 Cases Of Celebration Disruption; 17 Detained

Jagran English

Oppression of minorities, especially Hindus, continues in Bangladesh even after several warnings from Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus and army officials. About a dozen cases have been registered and seventeen persons have been detained after the country witnessed about 35 untoward incidents related to the ongoing Durga Puja celebrations across the country this month, police said.

Earlier, it was discovered that a hand-crafted golden mukut (crown), gifted by PM Modi during his visit to Bangladesh, was stolen from a Hindu temple in Bangladesh's southwestern Satkhira district.

The Indian High Commission in Bangladesh expressed its disbelief and urged the Bangladesh government to recover the stolen crown and punish the perpetrators. The High Commission took notice of the incident as several Hindus complained about the atrocities.

Hindus constitute about 8 per cent of the 170 million Bangladesh population and have faced several atrocities since the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on August 5. They faced vandalism of their businesses and properties. Several of the Hindu temples were destructed during the student-led protest.

The U.S. Should Promote Taiwan as the Authentic China

Chart Westcott

Following a week-long visit to Taiwan, I have reassessed my perspective on U.S. foreign policy toward Taiwan. My initial belief was that the U.S. should prioritize strengthening Taiwan’s defensive capabilities, primarily by transforming it into a “porcupine” through increased arms sales and constructing an anti-hegemonic coalition in the region. While I continue to support these objectives, my visit has revealed that military support alone is insufficient. A comprehensive strategy must also include a robust soft power component aimed at fostering political unity, morale, and military readiness in Taiwan.

From the outset of my trip, it became clear that Taiwanese society and politics are more nuanced than I expected, and these complexities limit the effectiveness of purely military assistance. The ongoing rivalry between Taiwan’s two main political parties, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT), has led to political disunity that hampers the full use of defense capabilities. This political fragmentation contributes to a weakened sense of national morale and readiness.

Although there is widespread agreement that avoiding war is desirable, there is no consensus on whether deterrence through militarization is the best path forward. Even if militarization were universally supported, Taiwan’s aging population and relatively comfortable lifestyle pose challenges. Conscription, currently set at a year, is far from adequate in preparing Taiwan’s youth for the type of civic and military readiness found in nations like Israel or South Korea. Compounding this is the belief that Taiwan’s geographic defenses, particularly the formidable Taiwan Strait, provide a sufficient buffer against invasion, giving many Taiwanese a false sense of security.

PRC Fertilizer Export Controls Provoke Derisking Abroad

Aya Adachi

In June 2024, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) introduced fresh restrictions on its fertilizer exports, impacting global food and fertilizer supply (Bloomberg, June 24, Sina.com.cn, July 12). PRC Customs data show that urea fertilizer exports, which have been particularly low all year, dropped sharply following the imposition of controls. Only 105,000 metric tons were exported in July and August, down from 637,000 metric tons in the same period last year (General Administration of the PRC [GACC], accessed October 1). Urea exports are seasonal and usually increase in August and peak in September. The government’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has taken the decision to restrict exports several times since 2021 to stabilize domestic prices and safeguard the country’s domestic food security (NDRC, July 30, 2021; GACC, October 11 2021; Reuters, September 8, 2023).

The PRC plays an outsized role in the global fertilizer market. In 2023, it accounted for 24 percent of worldwide consumption and 75 percent in East Asia (International Fertilizer Association [IFA], August 20). This means that the PRC’s decisions as a key producer of urea and phosphate-based fertilizer can have a major impact on international trade. As a result, many of its Asian trade partners—including South Korea and India—have reconsidered their reliance on PRC fertilizers, turning instead to alternative suppliers (Business Korea, September 11; Reuters, December 18, 2023).

China’s PLA Navy: A Peer Competitor Emerges

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is currently ranked as the third most powerful military in the world, behind only the United States and Russia. Its naval arm, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLA Navy), is actually larger than the US Navy, currently consisting of an active duty battle force of around 370 platforms. Moreover, that number is a likely underestimate since it does not include smaller-scale vessels that can be equipped with anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs) in a hypothetical conflict near Taiwan; for example, the Type 022 (Houbei Class) patrol boats that pose a credible risk to blue water platforms while not being able to traverse the open oceans themselves. Nor does it include the irregular forces that could be brought to bear in any conflict in China’s littoral waters, such as the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM).

How the PLA Navy continues to expand over the short- and medium-term is a matter of mounting concern for US policymakers and military strategists. China’s ongoing shipbuilding and force modernization programs expect to grow the PLA Navy to 395 ships by 2025, and 435 ships by 2030. In contrast, the US Navy was fielding 296 battle ships as of August 2024, and US efforts to catch up are complicated by the yawning gap in shipbuilding capacity between China and the United States. Just how big is this gap? According to a leaked US Navy briefing, China has a domestic shipbuilding capacity 232 times greater than the United States.

Chinese-made fighter jets play key role in deadly airstrikes in Myanmar

Nyein Chan Aye

Local media in Myanmar are reporting that six FTC-2000G fighter jets purchased from China have arrived, and observers are concerned that Chinese military support for the Myanmar military is prolonging the conflict and worsening civilian suffering.

China's supply of fighter jets, such as the FTC-2000G, has helped the junta maintain air superiority, and that has caused widespread casualties across Myanmar.

According to media reports, this delivery in August 2024 is the second batch of FTC-2000G jets received by Myanmar’s military. The junta took delivery of the first batch in November 2022.

Military-controlled media later showed the FTC-2000G aircraft at a Myanmar Air Force ceremony on Dec. 15, 2022. The second batch is widely expected to be showcased at this year’s Air Force Day celebration in December.

Learning the lessons of the 1982 Lebanon War

Emily Whalen

Last week, Israel began a ground war in Lebanon. It recalls, in both scope and apparent strategy, the 1982 Israeli ground war in Lebanon. More than forty years ago, Prime Minister Menachem Begin assured US officials that IDF troops would simply establish a ‘security zone’ 40 kilometres north of the border. Begin and Minister of Defense Ariel Sharon described the invasion as ‘limited’ and ‘targeted’ – the aim was to push the Palestinian Liberation Organization back far enough to ensure Israelis living close to the border would no longer fear rocket fire.

In addition to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s assurance that the invasion will be both limited and targeted, many other echoes of the 1982 Lebanon war reverberate across the decades. Like Netanyahu, Begin insisted that Israeli incursions in Lebanon were not targeting Lebanese citizens, and, indeed, would ultimately protect civilians from further clashes. Like the PLO, Hizbollah has a complicated relationship with the Lebanese state and with Lebanese civilians, providing necessary services while simultaneously inciting resentment. And, just as in 1982, the United States finds itself trapped in its own equivocations on the Middle East, caught in the usual tension between its commitments to Israel and its commitments to international law.

Iran’s Israel Strategy Has Already Changed

Arash Reisinezhad

Iran’s second strike on Israeli soil with a barrage of missiles on October 1 marked a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between the two regional powers. After Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July and the more recent killings of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Gen. Abbas Nilforoushan of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Beirut, Iran launched an overt, substantial, and direct attack against its sworn enemy. The Iran-Israel conflict now risks pushing the entire Middle East to the brink of a full regional war.

Regardless of whether that war takes place, the exchange of attacks by Iran and Israel has already led to a new regional power equation that will last far beyond this specific confrontation. Seven far-reaching strategic consequences of the Iran-Israel conflict have become discernible.

Iran Could Build a Nuclear Weapon Sooner Than You Think

Gregory S. Jones and Henry Sokolski

Earlier this summer, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed that Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium to make its first nuclear bomb in just one or two weeks. That’s pretty frightening. But now some experts argue that Tehran would still need up to one year to fashion this material into a working weapon and even longer—perhaps a year or two—to fully build a missile-deliverable warhead.

You should be skeptical. A look at other countries’ nuclear bomb-building efforts suggests that these projections are wrong. For a missile-deliverable weapon, Iran needs to perfect nonnuclear, high-explosive-related components to compress the weapons-grade uranium and produce a nuclear yield. These nonnuclear components also need to be small and light enough to be carried on ballistic missiles.

Exclusive-Stop Israel from bombing Iran's oil sites, Gulf states urge US

Samia Nakhoul, Parisa Hafezi and Pesha Magid

Gulf states are lobbying Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iran's oil sites because they are concerned their own oil facilities could come under fire from Tehran's proxies if the conflict escalates, three Gulf sources told Reuters.

As part of their attempts to avoid being caught in the crossfire, Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are also refusing to let Israel fly over their airspace for any attack on Iran and have conveyed this to Washington, the three sources close to government circles said.

Israel has promised Iran will pay for its missile attack last week while Tehran has said any retaliation would be met with vast destruction, raising fears of a wider war in the region that could suck in the United States.

The moves by the Gulf states come after a diplomatic push by non-Arab Shi'ite Iran to persuade its Sunni Gulf neighbours to use their influence with Washington amid rising concerns Israel could target Iran's oil production facilities.

A Year After October 7, Iran is Still the Problem

Ariel Cohen

I arrived in Israel with plans to spend the Jewish New Year, Rosh Hashanah, with my daughter and son-in-law. Instead, we spent two nights in a bomb shelter. The first missile salvo was launched by Hezbollah from Lebanon. Then came nearly 200 ballistic missiles launched by Iran and aimed at Israel’s major cities and towns. On Monday, I had to shelter at the Ben Gurion airport as a Houthi missile hurtled toward Tel-Aviv. It was shot down. If not for the Arrow and Iron Dome defense systems and support from the U.S. Navy, thousands of Israelis would have been killed and wounded.

Israel is a vibrant country, but the entirety of Israeli society is deeply traumatized. Last October 7, fifty years after Egypt and Syria unleashed the Yom Kippur War, the Islamist Hamas organization, recognized as a terrorist by the U.S. and the EU, attacked Israel on yet another religious holiday. Instead of spending that day dancing and giving thanks for the gift of the Torah that is the central staff of Jewish life, Israelis woke up to the news of an orgiastic, bloody massacre.

In small agricultural communities near the Gaza border and at the nearby rave Nova music festival, Hamas and its Gazan supporters tortured, raped, and murdered some 1,200 men, women, and children. Over 240 hostages were dragged into the massive tunnel network built with stolen aid money under the Gaza Strip. A year later, roughly 100 of those hostages are still in Hamas’ hands, with several of them likely murdered by their captors.

The normalization and legitimation of political assassinations

Luca Trenta, Emil Archambault and Sophie Duroy

When the Israel Defense Forces assassinated Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in an underground bunker in Beirut on September 27, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defiantly claimed responsibility for the killing. “Nasrallah was not a terrorist,” he boasted. “He was the terrorist.”

Similarly defiant messages came from the White House. The US president, Joe Biden, called the assassination “a measure of justice for his many victims.” Meanwhile, a State Department spokesperson called his killing “an unalloyed good.”

Neither Israel nor the US government lamented the fact that as many as 300 civilians were killed in the attack. Perhaps they saw them as acceptable “collateral damage.”

But while many world leaders condemned the escalation of violence in the region, reactions were more muted when it came to condemning the assassination itself. Except for Hezbollah’s allies, most governments either remained silent or accepted the argument that the assassination had been “just.”

The World Is Abandoning the WTO

Kristen Hopewell

For over 75 years, the multilateral trading system has helped ensure stability and order in the global economy. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and its successor, the World Trade Organization (WTO), brought states together to cooperate in lowering tariffs and other trade barriers, promoting global economic integration and establishing rules to govern trade. This system has proved extraordinarily effective and fostered an era of unprecedented global prosperity.

But now this liberal trading order is in crisis. International cooperation on trade has largely broken down.

‘Don’t Kill My Child. Kill Me Instead.’

Nicholas Kristof

Side by side with the worst of humanity, you regularly encounter the best. And so it was that while covering murder, rape and starvation in Sudan, I was awed by a heroic refugee, Naima Adam.

I’m on the Chad-Sudan border, reporting on atrocities against Black African ethnic groups in Sudan — wrenchingly similar to the Darfur genocide here two decades ago. To report here is to appreciate that “evil” is not just an archaic Hebrew Bible term but also a force still powerful in the 21st century.

And yet: When civilization collapses and we humans are tested, some people reveal themselves as sociopaths, but a remarkable number turn out to be saints like Naima.

Naima, 48, is a member of one of the Black ethnic groups that have been targeted by destructive extremists in Sudan’s Arab leadership. Four times in the past 20 years, Arab marauders have burned her home in their efforts at ethnic cleansing of non-Arab groups, and the janjaweed Arab militia murdered her husband nine years ago.

Alexei Navalny’s Prison Diaries

Alexei Navalny

Exactly one year ago today I came home, to Russia.

I didn’t manage to take a single step on the soil of my country as a free man: I was arrested even before border control.

The hero of one of my favorite books, “Resurrection,” by Leo Tolstoy, says, “Yes, the only suitable place for an honest man in Russia at the present time is prison.”

It sounds fine, but it was wrong then, and it’s even more wrong now.

There are a lot of honest people in Russia—tens of millions. There are far more than is commonly believed.

The authorities, however, who were repugnant then and are even more so now, are afraid not of honest people but of those who are not afraid of them. Or let me be more precise: those who may be afraid but overcome their fear.

Ukraine Faces a Double Threat if Russia Takes Pokrovsk

Keith Johnson

The latest Russian offensive in Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine, threatens to finally topple the city of Pokrovsk—and that carries both military and economic risks for a beleaguered Ukraine already bracing for its most challenging winter of the war.

Pokrovsk, a once-vibrant city of 80,000 people, is the object of a Russian encircling move that began in July and is creeping within miles of the city as every day passes. The city has served as a key logistics and transportation hub for Ukrainian military operations in eastern Ukraine and is the gateway to conquering the rest of Donetsk Oblast—and potentially on to even bigger prizes such as Dnipro, Ukraine’s fourth-largest city before the war.

Moscow’s War Intensifies Corruption in Russia

Ksenia Kirillova

Russia’s war in Ukraine has put a spotlight on corruption in the Russian Federation, which has existed as long as the country itself. As Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to try to fight the long war, corruption will increase and continue to be the only way the Kremlin believes it can control its people. A year and a half into the conflict, Putin declared that the so-called “special operation” would “purify” Russian society from a “fifth column” (ВВС–Russian service, November 28, 2023). Putin’s words were then repeated by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who said one result of the war is “the cleansing of Russian society of people who feel no connection with Russian culture” (Kommersant.ru, January 18).

Consequently, on September 23, the Russian government prepared a review of a draft law about the criminal liability of “Russophobia” in Russia’s Criminal Code. The bill was prepared by State Duma Vice Speaker, Irina Yarova, and the head of the State Duma Committee on Security and, ironically, Anti-Corruption, Vasily Piskarev. The law outlines the liability specifically for discriminatory acts committed against citizens and permanent residents of Russia, including against “compatriots” who are not citizens of the Russian Federation “outside the borders of the Russian Federation.” Punishment for “Russophobia” within Russia, however, is not outlined (Interfax; Svoboda.org, September 23).

Ukraine War Map Shows Russia Ramp Up Gains Across Donetsk Front Line

Brendan Cole

Russian forces are advancing in the Donetsk oblast, according to reports, as maps showed the latest state of play on the front line in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region.

Pro-Ukrainian Telegram channel Politika Strana said on Wednesday that Moscow's troops had made "significant progress" in the Vuhledar, Pokrovsk-Kurakhove and Toretsk directions.

"To the east, near Kamyanske, Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have become more active," the post said, adding that the to the west Russians had advanced north of Vuhledar, which was captured earlier this month.

The X account Ukraine Control Map, which tracks the war's latest developments, posted on Tuesday a graphic that showed some of Russia's advances.

It said that Russian forces raised the flag just east of Siversk, "indicating large advances that are odd if taken at face value," it said next to the map, adding that, Moscow's troops "raised their flag in Zhelanne Pershe, near Hirnyk" and that there were advances in the Toretsk direction.

Dark Clouds Over the Russian Economy

International sanctions, disrupted logistics, rising prices and inflation expectations, and the difficulties of replacing banned imports with homegrown substitutes have placed heavy strain on the Russian economy. The government has concealed these challenges to some extent through measures to boost wages, consumption and production, leading to several months of strong growth. However, recent GDP data and other indicators point to a slowdown as supply and demand imbalances emerge.

Limited production capacity, a weak ruble, tighter Western sanctions and labor shortages are constraining growth, while the central bank resists easing monetary policy to control inflation. Although demand remains high, business sentiment is worsening, and the economy remains vulnerable and far from a stable growth path.

Tactical Triumphs, Narrative Defeats

Monte Erfourth

Introduction

In his reflections on the nature of war, Professor John Arquilla of the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School posits that all conflicts boil down to two essential questions: "Who wins the battle on the ground?" and "Who wins the battle of the story?" These two questions delve into the dual realities of military strategy—tactical victory and the narrative that defines how that victory is perceived, both domestically and internationally. In many conflicts, the ability to control the battlefield is only part of the equation. Equally important, and sometimes even more so, is the ability to control the narrative that surrounds the conflict, shaping public opinion, morale, and international support. This essay will explore these concepts through the lens of three conflicts: the American Civil War, the Israel-Hamas war, and the U.S. War on Terror, providing insight into the critical importance of shaping the story in warfare.

The Battle on the Ground: Tactical Success and Failure

The first of Arquilla's two questions addresses the material reality of conflict—who physically controls the battlefield and wins tactical engagements. Throughout history, wars have been determined by armies and strategies that dominate in key engagements. In the American Civil War, Union forces eventually triumphed on the battlefield, defeating Confederate armies and forcing their surrender in 1865. However, the road to this victory was long and costly, and both sides experienced moments where tactical victories seemed fleeting. In battles such as Antietam or Gettysburg, tactical successes or failures influenced the immediate course of the war, yet neither battle alone decided the ultimate outcome. The battle on the ground involves winning key engagements, utilizing superior logistics, and maintaining the will to fight.

The Brewing War With Israel Is Boosting Iran’s Young Hard-Liners

Saeid Golkar and Kasra Aarabi

As Iran and Israel inch ever closer to a full-scale war, the Islamic Republic’s huge ballistic missile attack on Tel Aviv on October 1 may come to be seen as a decisive turning point. After successive setbacks for Tehran, including Israel’s assassination of the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was left with little choice but to respond. Now, the region is staring down an even bigger conflict.

The Death of Deterrence

Carlo J.V. Caro

Since April, President Biden’s public assurances—stating that the United States would not join Israel in a military response to the initial Iranian aerial attacks, and more recently his statements that he would not support an Israeli counterattack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure—mark a critical departure from the core principles of deterrence. Deterrence is not merely about wielding overwhelming force but about creating an environment of uncertainty and fear in the minds of adversaries. Historically, successful deterrence has thrived on ambiguity—the calculated uncertainty that prevents enemies from predicting the consequences of their actions. Yet, under Biden’s administration, this essential principle is eroding through public declarations, particularly toward Iran. This shift threatens to dismantle a carefully maintained balance, with potentially far-reaching consequences for the U.S., Israel, and the global order.

The Middle East, a region historically fraught with sectarian rivalries, territorial disputes, and the constant specter of conflict, has long relied on a delicate balance of power maintained by external actors, primarily the United States. For decades, U.S. ambiguity regarding its military involvement in the region served as a check on Tehran's nuclear ambitions. This ambiguity kept Iran in a perpetual state of caution, never quite certain how the U.S. or Israel might respond to further nuclear development.

Russian Iskander-M Obliterates Recklessly Deployed Ukrainian Patriot Battery; RuMoD Releases Footage

Vijainder K Thakur

According to the RuMoD, a crew of an Iskander ballistic missile system fired missiles at the Patriot SAM battalion’s positions near Pashena Balka in the Dnepropetrovsk region.

“The strike engaged a multifunctional AN/MPQ-65 radar, an AN/MSQ-104 engagement control station, launcher of the Patriot SAM system, and manpower of the AFU AD battalion. Another launcher of the Patriot SAM system was damaged.”

Pashena Balka is around 250 km from possible Iskander-M launch points within Russian territory.

Objective Control Footage

The incident and the object control footage released by the RuMoD are suggestive of a systemic malaise in the Ukrainian armed forces.

Ukraine appears to be throwing caution to the wind with its limited inventory of Patriot MIM-104 missile systems. It deploys them within easy reach of Russian Iskander missiles with little or no effort to camouflage their locations. The Ukrainian forces appear focused on sporadic headline victories instead of an inexorable pushback of Russian forces.

Wars are won with code, says German military AI maker

Antoaneta Roussi

It’s not about the kind of weapons a military has anymore; it’s the software on which it runs.

That’s the pitch with which European artificial intelligence champion Helsing is taking the defense-tech sector by storm, at a time when European governments are hurrying to funnel cash into new military systems and weaponry.

“Defense is turning more and more into a software problem,” the company’s co-founder and co-chief executive officer Gundbert Scherf told POLITICO in an interview.

Helsing, headquartered in Munich, Germany, was valued at €4.9 billion in July, just four years after its inception. Its motto, “artificial intelligence to serve our democracies,” is emblematic of the defense-tech industrial complex that has spun out of the war in Ukraine.

The company said it processes millions of data from sensors and weapon systems of European militaries to enable “faster and better decisions” by humans and increase the lethality of weapons. So far, it has signed contracts with the British, German, French, Estonian and Ukrainian governments.

DIA's AI-powered intel repository will be fully operational about a year late

LAUREN C. WILLIAMS

An AI-powered replacement for the repository of intelligence on foreign militaries is headed for the Pentagon’s classified network, where it will help pioneer new security techniques and become fully operational about a year later than planned, officials said.

“We expect” the Machine-assisted Analytic Rapid-repository System to be approved to run on the SIPRNet “within the next few weeks, actually,” said Doug Cossa, chief information officer of the Defense Intelligence Agency, speaking at an Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual event on Tuesday.

MARS is to replace the Modernized Integrated Database, or MIDB, the Pentagon’s main repository for “foundational military intelligence”: the information collected by the intelligence community on other countries’ militaries and infrastructure. The DIA began working on MARS in 2018, adding new tools and AI-powered capabilities along the way, but it has only been accessible in certain locations. An agency spokesperson declined to say where.

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