Indian Strategic Studies: 10/09/24

9 October 2024

India's iconic tramcars set to ride into Kolkata sunset

In February 2023, Kolkata celebrated 150 years of its tramways with music, cake, a beauty parade of vintage trams, including a century-old wooden car, and a cheerful tram conductor, Roberto D’Andrea, who travelled all the way from Melbourne, Australia.

Melbourne and Kolkata boast two of the oldest operational tramways in the world. Melbourne’s trams date back to 1885. Kolkata’s first tram, a horse-drawn one, started in 1873.

That’s where the similarities end.

Melbourne's tram system is going strong despite the government once attempting to get rid of them. The system has been upgraded and some trams are solar-powered.

Kolkata’s trams have been steadily declining over the years. From 52 routes in the 1970s, down to 25 in 2015 and now to just three.

The tram cars rattle and wheeze, having not been updated in years. Even the signs inside have not changed. “Beware of pickpockets”, “No change available for 100 rupees ($1.19; $0.89) or 50” and “To stop the car please ring the bell only once”.

Now, the state government has announced that it wants to do away with trams entirely, save for one small loop as a heritage route.

Taiwan’s President Suggests China Demand Return of Land Ceded to Russia a Century Ago

John C. K. Daly

On September 2, Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te added a new dimension to China’s irredentist assertions by suggesting that if China’s claims on Taiwan are about territorial integrity, then it should also press for the restoration of land from Russia that the Qing empire signed over in the 19th century (Era TV, September 1; Taiwan News, September 2). Russian President Vladimir Putin’s administration remains quietly nervous about Chinese intentions toward its far eastern provinces, which are slowly depopulating while their economies stagnate (see EDM, June 16, 2022, May 14, July 9). Sino-Russian relations remain tranquil on the surface, but China’s ascendancy has shifted the dynamics of their bilateral relationship and could add weight to Lai’s observation.

Sino-Russian relations date back to the thirteenth century. By the mid-nineteenth century, China had descended into what its historians have labeled the “century of humiliation.” This was a period that began with political instability, Western imperialism, and multiple internal conflicts and rebellions during the Qing, and ended with the Republic of China emerging from World War II as one of the Big Four and achieving a permanent seat on the newly established United Nations Security Council in 1945. The Sino-Russian borderlands have long been sites of contention. China’s oldest treaty, the Treaty of Nerchinsk, was signed with Russia in 1689 (Presidential Library, accessed September 30). Nearly two centuries later on May 16, 1858, the two states signed the Treaty of Aigun, which established a border along the Amur River. This was closely followed two years later by the Treaty of Beijing. Taken together, these two “unequal” treaties allowed Russia bloodlessly to annex 231,660 square miles (600,000 square kilometers) of Qing land, an area almost twice the size of modern Germany (Komsomol’skaia Pravda, February 9, 2019).

Sinking Chinese Sub Shows the New, Speedy Nature of Naval Intelligence

Sam Roggeveen

Earlier this year, the eagle-eyed American observer of China's military, Tom Shugart, spotted some unusual activity at a Chinese shipyard. Tom is a former US Navy submariner who these days spends a lot of time examining satellite photos and then piecing these together with other bits of evidence appearing on the internet to form sharp judgments about the rapid modernisation of China's military. You can get a sense of Shugart's work through this paper he wrote for the Lowy Institute in 2021.

In this case, the satellite photos appeared to show a number of crane barges clustered around a submarine that was docked at Wuchang Shipyard, where China is known to build diesel-electric submarines and surface ships for its navy.

The incident occurred in May. The reason to mention it now is that The Wall Street Journal has just run a story with quotes from anonymous US government sources claiming that the submarine in question sank while pier-side. The activity spotted by Shugart therefore may have been a salvage operation.

China Massively Upgrades T-99 Main Battle Tank

Jim Morris

China reportedly is upgrading its ZTZ-99 main battle tank, adding an advanced protection system that includes two projectile launchers and four fire control radars.

That’s according to ArmyRecognition.com, which published a photo that was posted on X that is said to offer evidence that the tank is being upgraded.

The ZTZ-99 is China’s third-generation main battle tank. It’s based on the Soviet T-72 tank chassis, but that’s where the similarity ends. The ZTZ-99 entered service in 1999, and current versions are equipped with a 125mm main gun – called by some an unlicensed version of Soviet and Russian designs.

It also has advanced composite armor and explosive reactive armor and has a protection system, known as the GL-6, that is said to be capable of intercepting anti-tank missiles, rocket-propelled grenades and other projectiles. The upgraded version’s protection system apparently is an improvement on the GL-6.

More than 1,300 ZTZ-99s (also known as the Type 99) have been built in the last two decades. It’s not believed to have been used in combat yet.

Austin believes casualties in all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah could ‘equal or exceed’ those in Gaza

Shania Shelton

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned Friday of “devastating” consequences if Israel engages in an all-out war with Hezbollah, telling CNN in an exclusive interview that casualties would “equal or exceed” the number in Gaza.

“An all-out war between Lebanese, Hezbollah and Israel would be devastating for both Lebanon and Israel. And again, we anticipate that we’d see a number of people displaced, casualties that, you know, equal or exceed what we’ve seen in Gaza,” Austin told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer.

The defense secretary, reiterating the US desire for a “diplomatic solution,” also said a possible ground incursion by Israeli forces into Lebanon risks spiraling the situation into a regional conflict.

Can Israel Kill Its Way to Victory Over Hezbollah?

Daniel Byman

Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other top commanders in recent weeks is part of a dramatic shift in the country’s approach to the Lebanese militant group. Its longtime strategy of trying to deter Hezbollah has given way to something else: a relentless bombing campaign aimed at weakening the group and forcing it to sue for peace on Israel’s terms due to incapacity.

In so doing, Israel probably hopes that Hezbollah will agree to remove its fighters from the Israeli border area and then accept a broader cease-fire, enabling Israeli to return its 60,000 or so displaced citizens to their homes in the north of the country. This is a high-risk shift. Hezbollah has been hit hard, and it is possible that it may make major concessions to Israel, at least in the short term, or that its response is anemic due to Israel’s decimation of its ranks. Getting terrorist or militant groups to bend the knee is difficult, however, and even weaker groups can still lash out hard, as Israel itself has learned from experience. In the past, however, Hezbollah has shown itself to be strong and determined, both in fighting Israel directly and in using international terrorism to hit back outside the theater—both done with the support of its Iranian patron.

Hezbollah Is Still Capable of Getting Revenge on Israel

Anchal Vohra

The same day that Israel remotely activated pagers in the pockets of Hezbollah members and stunned the group with its covert warfare capabilities, the Israeli intelligence agency Shin Bet announced that it had foiled an attempt by the Lebanon-based militant group to assassinate a senior defense official deep inside Tel Aviv. The explosive was fitted with a camera and a cellular connection and planted with the help of a local, a Hezbollah asset. Shin Bet did not name the defense official targeted, but the agency confirmed that the assassination would have been carried out remotely from Lebanon.

That failed assassination attempt contrasts with Israel’s successful killing of many senior Hezbollah leaders over the past two weeks, including the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah. But even though that amounts to a severe blow to the morale of its fighters, analysts say the group retains the ability to mount a response that resembles, if not matches, Israel’s own remote tactics, combining remotely triggered bombs with local intelligence from agents on the ground.

What we know about Iran's missile attack on Israel – and how the US responded

Fears are growing of a wider war in the Middle East after Iran fired a barrage of missiles at Israel on Tuesday (Oct 1), prompting vows of retaliation.

Sirens sounded across Israel as the entire population was told to move into bomb shelters.

"Iran made a big mistake tonight - and it will pay for it," said Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Here's what we know about the attack, the reactions to it and what could happen next.

WHY DID IRAN ATTACK ISRAEL?

Iran's Revolutionary Guard said the assault was in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut last week and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in late July.

Tensions between arch-rivals Israel and Iran have been growing since the start of the Gaza war, following Hamas' unprecedented attack on Israel on Oct 7, 2023.

Iran Fires Missiles at Israel as It Battles Hamas and Hezbollah

Tom O'Connor

Iran has fired a series of missiles at Israel in what appeared to be the latest escalation as Israeli forces battle the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza and the Lebanese Hezbollah movement in Lebanon.

"A short time ago, missiles were launched from Iran towards the State of Israel," Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Daniel Hagari said in a statement. "You are asked to remain vigilant and follow the Home Front Command's instructions precisely."

Hagari urged citizens to follow urgent "life-saving instructions" issued by the Home Front Command via text message and to head for a protected space immediately.

"The air defense system is fully operational, detecting and intercepting threats wherever necessary, even at this moment," Hagari said. "However, the defense is not hermetic, and therefore it is essential to follow the Home Front Command's instructions. You may hear explosions, which could be the result of interceptions or impacts."

The US Army’s chief of staff has ideas on the force of the future

RANDY GEORGE joined the US Army in 1988. It had overhauled itself after the trauma of Vietnam. It had written a new doctrine, known as AirLand Battle, to defeat the Soviet Union in a war in Europe. And a few years later it would smash the Iraqi army in the first Gulf war, a conflict in which General George, as he is today, served as a young lieutenant. He is now in charge of that same army, and wants to reinvent it, continuously, for a new age.

How Did the Experts Get Ukraine So Wrong?

Gabriel Schoenfeld

OUT ON THE HUSTINGS OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS, Donald Trump has been speaking about Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky. Here are remarks he made at a rally in North Carolina last Wednesday:

I watched this poor guy yesterday at the United Nations. He didn’t know what he was saying. They just don’t know what to do. They’re locked into a situation. It’s sad. They just don’t know what to do. Because Ukraine is gone. It’s not Ukraine anymore. You can never replace those cities and towns. And you can never replace the dead people—so many dead people. Any deal, even the worst deal, would have been better than what we have right now. If they made a bad deal, it would have been much better. They would have given up a little bit, and everybody would be living, and every building would be built, and every tower would be aging for another 2,000 years. . . . And we continue to give billions of dollars to a man who refuses to make a deal, Zelensky. There was no deal that he could have made that wouldn’t have been better than the situation you have right now. You have a country that has been obliterated.

The Lies Russia Tells Itself

Thomas Rid

In early September, the infamous Russian disinformation project known as Doppelganger hit the news again. Doppelganger—a scheme to disseminate fake articles, videos, and polls about polarizing political and cultural issues in the United States, as well as in France, Germany, and Ukraine—was first exposed in 2022 and widely covered in the Western press. The project cloned entire news organizations’ websites—complete with logos and the bylines of actual journalists—and planted its own fake stories, memes, and cartoons, luring casual Internet users to the sites via social media posts, often automated ones.

Tech companies and research labs had carefully traced, documented, and often removed some of Doppelganger’s online footprints, and even exposed the private Moscow firm mostly responsible for the campaigns: the Social Design Agency. But the disinformation campaigns persisted, and on September 4, in a move to counter them, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that it had seized 32 Internet domains behind the Doppelganger campaign—and published an unprecedented 277-page FBI affidavit that included 190 pages of internal SDA documents likely sourced by American spies. Then, 12 days later, the German daily Süddeutsche Zeitung reported that, in late August, it had received from an anonymous source, large amounts of authentic internal SDA documents. A day before the FBI released its affidavit and the accompanying files—some of which overlapped with the leaked ones—Süddeutsche Zeitung asked me to comment on the leak for its investigation, because I have researched and written about disinformation and political warfare for almost ten years. I inquired whether its source might allow me to have the entire 2.4 gigabytes of leaked SDA documents, and the source agreed.

Putin’s Nuclear Blackmail Goes Doctrinal

Pavel K. Baev

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced neither surprising nor radical revisions in Russia’s nuclear doctrine on September 25 (Kremlin.ru, September 25). He committed to revising the government’s vague document back in June. In the ensuing months, many “patriotic” pundits have advocated various drastic changes, from formalizing the “escalate-to-deescalate” proposition to breaking the non-proliferation regime (see EDM, June 3; Kommersant, September 11). Putin opted for very modest revisions and tried to compensate for this moderation with staged gravitas at his Security Council’s so-called “standing conference on nuclear deterrence.” The conference had never been known to exist before but this time was covered on prime-time television (Kommersant, September 25; Meduza, September 26). The announced shifts in the justifications for Russia hypothetically resorting to using its vast nuclear arsenal have already been scrutinized minutely, but the timing of Putin’s heavy hints and direct threats is indicative of his real intent.

Typically, Putin’s attempts at brinkmanship are aimed at influencing key decisions in the US-led coalition on expanding support to Ukraine and providing weapon systems of higher capacity, such as Leopard main battle tanks or M142 HIMARS multiple rocket launchers. The physical arrival of these arms, such as the deployment of the first squadron of F-16 fighters in early August, is invariably ignored, even when equipped with the JSOW glide bombs (Izvestiya, September 26).

Counterterrorism Copy Cats

Yumna Rizvi & Sarah Yager

After Hamas-led Palestinian armed groups killed 1,139 people and took more than 250 hostages on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel’s UN ambassador called the attack “our 9/11.” The comparison he made is worth paying attention to. It wasn’t just the cruelty of the events or their magnitude. Israeli authorities invoked 9/11 to legitimize the dramatic show of force they intended in response, just as the United States responded over two decades ago with an invasion of Afghanistan and “shock and awe” in Iraq.

In many ways, the U.S. response to 9/11 didn’t end until August 2021, when the final U.S. troops departed Kabul. At the time of the withdrawal, President Biden said the U.S. would “turn the page on the foreign policy that has guided our nation the last two decades.” But the reality is that the U.S. has not turned the page. The United States has not reckoned with its excesses of force and abuses, and much of the abusive counterterrorism playbook remains in use as official U.S. policy.

There is no good way for the United States to promote democracy and human rights abroad while it remains a model for a militarized counterterrorism-based foreign policy.

The Artificial General Intelligence Presidency Is Coming

Ylli Bajraktari

It is increasingly probable that the next U.S. presidential term could see the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). If that happens, everything will change, and generative AI—the artificial intelligence which can produce images and text through ChatGPT and other applications—will seem like the Kitty Hawk Flyer compared with the B-21. AGI, possessing cognitive abilities that equal if not exceed a human’s, will be capable of performing virtually all tasks. It will revolutionize the economy, turbocharge scientific discovery, propel the quality of life to unimagined heights, and grant near invulnerability to national security. Humanity stands on the verge of a new, potentially golden era. But AGI could also create a much darker world.

The path that AGI takes will depend in large measure on who develops it, and how. If it is done in the United States, and done responsibly, then its benefits could be immense. This new, novel, and immense intelligence can be brought to bear on a swathe of problems and tasks, leading to the situation where we could eventually see AI models with the capabilities of a Nobel Prize winner assisting sectors ranging from manufacturing to national security. If, however, AGI is inaugurated in Beijing then the situation could be very different, and its effects likely malign. Chinese possession of AGI would give its troops the edge on every battlefield, its businesses the advantage in every market, and its security services the capacity to enforce a level of surveillance and repression that exceeds anything yet attempted by an authoritarian state.

The Kursk Offensive: Triumph or Tragedy in the Making?

John V. Parachini

In a bold move, Ukrainian forces advanced into the Kursk region of Russia, creating new dynamics on the battlefield. This operation, while potentially a game-changing move by Ukraine, could lead to escalation, including increased Russian use of chemical weapons.

While Ukraine controls 500 square miles of Russian territory, there is no guarantee that the offensive will prove decisive, and it could weaken Ukraine's position on the eastern front in the Donbas. Russia has rushed at least 30,000 additional troops to the Kursk region to counter Ukraine's advance is worrying, but predictable. Moscow's willingness to throw waves of troops against the frontline regardless of the casualty rates poses a serious challenge to Ukraine to hold its gains in Kursk and not have its defenses buckle at other points along the frontline.

Might Ukraine's seizure of Russian territory provoke Moscow to escalate its response and use nuclear weapons? Earlier this month Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said Russia will revise its nuclear doctrine in response to, “recent conflicts, including … our Western adversaries' escalation course in regards to the special military operations.”

Ukraine's 'Masterstroke' Kursk Offensive Is About Geometry, Not Geography

Ann Marie Dailey

Countless pundits have denigrated Ukraine's Kursk offensive, and nearly all the criticism has focused on geography: Sudzha, Pokrovsk, Kursk. But this misses the point. The offensive is not about geography. It's about geometry.

Ukraine's Kursk offensive was a tactical masterstroke that changed the geometry of the battlefield by extending Russian lines and obliging them to rethink their force allocation assumptions. This changes the military calculus. It has led to immediate tactical and operational benefits, and if Ukraine can consolidate the gains it has made, it holds the possibility of strategic benefits, as well.

Since Ukraine's failed 2023 counteroffensive, the front line has remained relatively static.

Russia established an operational tempo that enabled small, consistent gains, and it seemed poised to continue this grinding war of attrition indefinitely. When an enemy is making consistent gains, something must be done to disrupt their operations. Ukraine's Kursk offensive did just that.

Israel Is Winning the War — Let Them Keep Winning It

LAWRENCE KUDLOW

Israel is defending itself — but it’s also saving Western Civilization. If you haven’t already read Gerard Baker’s opinion piece in today’s Wall Street Journal, go immediately to your computer, or whatever you use to pursue information, and read it.

The title is “Israel Defends Itself – and May Save Western Civilization.” Gerry is an old friend. We used to go back and forth many years ago on the old Mclaughlin Group on Sundays.

He’s a former Editor in Chief of the Wall Street Journal and he wrote a truth-telling article.

All I can do is quote a few lines, express my complete support, and hope that those of you who haven’t read it will go out and read it as soon as possible. “How will we ever repay the debt we owe Israel,” he asks.

He goes on to say: “What the Jewish state has done in the past year — will rank among the most important contributions to the defense of Western civilization in the past three-quarters of a century.”

He talks about how it is still possible for our Western system of free markets and free people to defeat evils like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran.

The Lianyungang Conference and Beijing’s Attempts to Reshape Global Security

W.Y. Kwok

The Global Public Security Cooperation Forum was held this year on September 9–10 in the city of Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province (Lianyungang Forum, accessed September 27). It advanced efforts by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to redefine global security, building on the broader Global Security Initiative (GSI; 全球安全倡议) proposed by President Xi Jinping in 2022. The GSI is the PRC’s vision for addressing both traditional and non-traditional international security challenges through cooperation and dialogue (Xinhua, September 9). This year’s conference took as its theme “Building a Global Community of Public Security (打造全球公共安全共同体).” This entails deepening international collaboration on public security issues.

This forum attracted more than 2,000 experts, scholars, and law enforcement personnel from 122 countries, regions, and international organizations, marking a significant increase from the inaugural Lianyungang conference in 2022. Representatives from Myanmar, Malaysia, Pakistan, Interpol, and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime attended. Conference Chairman Andy Tsang Wai-hung (曾伟雄) emphasized that 80 of the attendees held ministerial-level positions or higher, underscoring the event’s increasing international influence (The Paper, September 10). In addition to the main conference, 12 sub-forums covered topics such as tourism safety, drone security, and law enforcement capacity building.

Israeli Airstrikes Fuel Anger, Desperation in Southern Lebanon

Stefanie Glinski

Two days after Israeli airstrikes targeted this small village in southern Lebanon, bodies were still being pulled from the rubble. At least 50 people were killed and more than 70 were wounded in the attack on Sunday, which hit a large apartment block, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. But the stench of death lingered, suggesting that more victims may remain buried under debris. Two excavators dug through collapsed concrete walls and twisted steel, aided by a handful of volunteers.

On Monday, Israel’s military launched what it described as a “limited, localized, and targeted” ground invasion into Lebanon, aimed at dismantling the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group and returning evacuated Israeli citizens to border towns near Lebanon. Around 60,000 Israelis left their homes in response to persistent Hezbollah rocket fire following the Hamas attacks in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, that launched Israel’s war on Gaza; Hezbollah and Hamas are allies.

“Escalate to De-escalate”: What Led Iran to Attack Israel

Murtaza Hussain and Jeremy Scahill

On Tuesday evening, Iran launched a wave of ballistic missile attacks striking sites throughout Israel, in retaliation for its recent assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards officer Abbas Nilforoushan. Initial estimates claim that Iran fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, with missiles reportedly targeting military airbases and other sites throughout the country.

“In response to the assassination of Martyr Haniyeh, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Sardar Nilforoshan, we targeted important targets,” read a statement shared on Telegram channels linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. “If the Zionist regime responds to our attack, our next attacks will be more devastating.” In a statement about the attack, the IRGC said that it had “targeted three military bases: Nevatim, which houses F-35 aircraft, Netzarim, which houses F-15 jets used in the assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and Tel Nof base near Tel Aviv with Fateh ballistic missiles.”

The Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Treaty is ‘Within Reach’ but Out of Grasp

Vasif Huseynov

September 2024 marks the fourth anniversary of the Second Karabakh War (September 27–November 10, 2020), as well as the first anniversary of Azerbaijan’s “anti-terror operation” against the Armenian separatist contingency in the Karabakh region on September 19–20, 2023 (see EDM, September 28, December 14, 2020, September 20, 28, October 4, 2023). As a result of these two military incidents, Armenia and Azerbaijan are drafting a peace treaty in an effort to reconcile the longtime adversaries. The basis for negotiations were proposals put forward by Azerbaijan in March 2022, centered around key principles such as the recognition of each other’s territorial integrity and the non-use of force (see EDM, April 14, 2022, January 24, April 15, May 21, July 9). “Today … peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not only possible but within reach,” said Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan optimistically on September 26 at the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York City (Primeminister.am, September 26). Yet, both Pashinyan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov at the UNGA acknowledged the significant challenges that remain. While the treaty could be within reach, it may still be out of grasp.

Baku remains highly steadfast in its demand that Armenia should remove territorial claims against Azerbaijan before the two countries can sign a peace treaty (see EDM, June 25). “The Armenian people should constitutionally declare an end to their utopian claims of uniting Karabakh with Armenia and express their intention to live in peace with Azerbaijan,” said Hikmat Hajiyev, foreign policy adviser to the Azerbaijani president on September 18 (Report.az, September 18). Bayramov argued that the “pain and [suffering] inflicted by irredentism and territorial claims” make it imperative for Azerbaijan to seek assurances that revanchist forces in Armenia will not revive hostilities, during his speech to the UNGA (Mfa.gov.az, September 29). Although Pashinyan acknowledged the need for a constitutional change in Armenia earlier this year, this seems unlikely to happen before 2027 (see EDM, June 25).

The Russian War Economy’s Days Are Numbered

ANDERS ÅSLUND

Since 2014, and especially since 2022, Russia’s economy has been subjected to severe international sanctions. Yet assessments of their impact vary greatly. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his cronies boast that the sanctions make Russia stronger, but they incessantly call for all restrictions to be lifted. At the same time, many claim that the sanctions have had little impact, while others argue that this is because the sanctions are too timid.