Indian Strategic Studies: 09/22/24

22 September 2024

Why Rakhine State Could Become Myanmar’s First Truly Autonomous Region

Mung Sian Kim

In Myanmar’s complex landscape, which includes scores of ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and People’s Defense Forces, the Arakan Army (AA) stands out as the one group with a real chance of achieving its goal of autonomy – or even independent nationhood. There are two key reasons why Rakhine State, also known as Arakan, might emerge as Myanmar’s first fully autonomous region, free from both the Myanmar military and foreign interference. The first factor is the unique leadership and unity among the Rakhine people themselves; the second is the state’s geopolitically significant location, which makes it resistant to direct foreign control.

The AA was formed in 2009 by Twan Mrat Naing and 25 young Rakhine nationalists in Kachin State. In just over a decade, the group has grown into one of Myanmar’s most formidable forces. Twan Mrat Naing’s leadership, along with that of Brig. Gen. Nyo Twan Awng, has been instrumental in creating a strong military organization with a clear vision of reviving the “Arakan Nation” through what they call the “Arakan Way.”

US Army Hints New Missile System Could Reach China and Russia's Doorstep

Ryan Chan

A visit by the Japanese army to a military base in the United States last week hinted at the possible future deployment of a new American missile system near China and Russia.

Photos shared by the U.S. Air Force's 62nd Airlift Wing showed it hosted a delegation of Japan's Ground Self-Defense Force at Joint Base Lewis-McChord in Washington state. One of the pictures showed the U.S. Army's latest Mid-Range Capability missile system, also known as the Typhon.

The Army stood up its second Typhon battery at the West Coast base in January. The introduction was part of an ongoing upgrade to the service's long-range precision fires, in response to challenges posed by Russian and Chinese ballistic missile units.

The modernization plan involves developing longer-range systems as well as modifying existing air- and sea-launched missiles for ground launch.

The Typhon fires two types of anti-surface and -air munitions already used by the U.S. Navy: the Tomahawk cruise missile and the Standard Missile 6, with respective ranges of 1,000 and 290 miles.

Dispatch from Manila: On the frontlines of the ‘gray zone’ conflict with China

Markus Garlauskas

Chinese vessels have repeatedly threatened and rammed Philippine vessels within the internationally recognized Exclusive Economic Zone of the Philippines to assert China’s excessive maritime claims, most recently on August 31. As a result, for the leaders of the Philippines, China’s aggression is not in some shadowy, ill-defined “gray zone”—it is a real and constant series of attacks on their people and sovereignty. As General Romeo Brawner, Jr., chief of staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, told us on August 27 in Manila: China’s activities are “ICAD”—illegal, coercive, aggressive, and deceptive. Brawner urged the United States and like-minded countries in the region to see these attacks as not just the Philippines’ fight, but their fight as well.

Brawner was speaking to participants of the US Indo-Pacific Command’s international Military Operations and Law (MILOPS) conference at the historic Manila Hotel, just days before the August 31 ramming. Brawner’s remarks followed those of Philippine Secretary of Defense Gilberto Teodoro, Jr., as part of a panel including US Ambassador to the Philippines MaryKay Carlson and Admiral Samuel Paparo, the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command. The conference also included top military lawyers, operational officers, and nongovernment national security experts from nearly thirty countries across the Indo-Pacific.

A ‘Chinese Starlink’ Launches New Era For Domestic Space Industry

Arran Hope

At 14:42 on August 6, a Long March 6 (LM-6) carrier rocket took off from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Centre in Xinzhou, Shanxi Province (Xinhua, August 7). The rocket carried 18 satellites—the first official batch of the Qianfan (千帆) constellation—into orbit. Qianfan, formerly known as “G60,” constitutes an initial response by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to Starlink, the private satellite internet constellation operated as a subsidiary of Elon Musk’s commercial space venture SpaceX.

The company behind the launch, Yuanxin Satellite (垣信卫星)—also known as Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology Ltd (SSST)—is not a state-owned enterprise (SOE). This is surprising, as SOEs usually take precedence in the unveiling of new, strategic technologies. Analysts therefore have described the August development as “the most significant commercial launch in Chinese space industry history” (The China Space Monitor, August 31). A confluence of factors led to SSST winning the race to launch a constellation of internet satellites in non-geostationary orbit (NGSO). These include problems in the state-owned constellation sector coupled with an explosion of activity in the burgeoning commercial sector. The initial trigger for PRC efforts in this area has been the launch and dramatic expansion of Starlink since 2019. The PRC’s space sector is still centrally controlled, but the emergence of a more dynamic commercial sector indicates that Beijing is learning how to successfully combine government direction with market forces (China Brief, November 20, 2023).

China’s Legal Warfare Closes a Beloved Tibetan School

Marie Miller

Despite taking part in a momentous rite of passage, tears streaked the faces of the 110 students who graduated from Gangjong Sherig Norbu Lobling School, located on the Tibetan Plateau in Golog prefecture, Qinghai province, this July. For months, authorities had prodded any and all excuses to find violations, pursuing various legal avenues to shutter the school. Until this summer, they were unsuccessful.

Eventually, despite legal battles that ended in the school’s acquittal, regional administration ordered the school’s closure. In a speech before his students, Gen Jigme Gyaltsen indicated the school was closing because it was not in compliance with the Qinghai Provincial Party Committee’s vague standards of vocational schools. Additional details were not disclosed. The 110 students that graduated in July will be the last the institution ever accredits.

The internationally acclaimed Tibetan school was first founded in 1994 inside the Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture. Since then, its rich curriculum in Tibetan cultural and linguistic studies has drawn youth from across Tibet, Mongolia, and Inner Mongolia. The school’s emphasis on the preservation of specialized Tibetan language studies, medicine, and Buddhist philosophy has garnered both private and public extraterritorial support, such as from Finland and the Netherlands. The school’s rigorous curriculum was supplemented with computer science, engineering, medicine, filmmaking, and physical education.

What Would Iran Do With the Bomb?

Sina Azodi

There are no current indications that Iran is weaponizing its nuclear program, but the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has raised concerns that Tehran might finally cross the threshold. How might a nuclear-capable Iran behave? Experts offer differing perspectives on its potential regional and global impact.

The Biggest Question About the Hezbollah Pager Attack Is Why Now

Colin P. Clarke

In a coordinated attack across Lebanon and parts of Syria, hundreds of pagers used by the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah simultaneously exploded on Tuesday, killing more than a dozen people and injuring thousands of others. No group has claimed responsibility, but the overwhelmingly likely culprit is Israel. Israel’s multifront war has broadened, including not only Hamas in Gaza but also Iran and its Axis of Resistance, a collection of proxy groups that includes Hezbollah.

While still in Gaza, Israel has no good options in Lebanon. But it may invade anyway

Lazar Berman

Even before thousands of pagers exploded in the pockets and hands of Hezbollah fighters on Tuesday, a major escalation between Israel and the Iran-backed Shiite army in Lebanon was looking increasingly likely.

After US special envoy Amos Hochstein met with Israel’s war leadership in Tel Aviv the day before, the security cabinet updated its official goals for the ongoing war with Hamas in Gaza to include allowing residents of the north to return safely home after being evacuated over concerns Hezbollah could launch a cross-border attack similar to October 7.

“Israel will continue to act to achieve this goal,” said a statement from the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office, hinting strongly at the possibility of expanding military operations to get Hezbollah to stop firing.

Gallant was even more direct in his message to Hochstein, telling him that “the only way left to ensure the return of Israel’s northern communities to their homes will be via military action.”

Pager bombs: Precision warfare takes a personal turn in Lebanon

Mick Ryan

In the past 24 hours, nearly 3000 pagers carried by members of the terrorist group Hezbollah exploded across Lebanon. This audacious and imaginative attack on Hezbollah killed at least nine people and injured thousands. While no organisation or country has admitted responsibility for the attack, many, including Hezbollah itself, have pointed the finger at Israel.

If Israel was responsible, it will carry profound implications for Hezbollah and its leadership.

First, Israel is demonstrating that it can identify and target members of Hezbollah regardless of their location or position in the organisation. This is indicative (again) of a sophisticated Israeli intelligence apparatus, which despite its failures leading up to the 7 October Hamas massacres, can execute complex and audacious attacks.

Second, Israel is responding asymmetrically to Hezbollah rocket attacks on northern Israel. These rockets, while improving in accuracy, are generally indiscriminate in who they affect in Israel. Hezbollah has shown no distinction between civilians and military targets. Israel however, with these pager attacks, has shown that it can respond not only with aerial bombardment but in a more discriminate and imaginative way.

9 Killed, 2,800 Injured As Hezbollah Pagers Explode

Najia Houssari

At least nine people were killed and 2,800 injured, many seriously, when handheld pagers used by Hezbollah members exploded on Tuesday in an incident described as the group’s “biggest security breach yet.”

The explosions sparked widespread panic in the southern suburbs of Beirut, as well as areas in the south of Lebanon, and in the Bekaa, especially Ali Al-Nahri and Rayak.

Hundreds of people were rushed to hospital for emergency treatment, with medical reports saying that some of the injured lost limbs in the explosions.

Hezbollah members in Syria were also targeted, according to Syrian media.

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and government ministers were told about the security breach during a cabinet meeting.

Mikati ordered the Minister of Health Firas Abiad to leave the session and mobilize medical services.

Global Energy Perspective 2024

While significant progress has been made in the nine years since the landmark Paris Agreement, the global energy transition is entering a new phase, marked by rising costs, complexity, and increased technology challenges. To successfully navigate this next phase and meet the Paris Agreement goals, urgent action will be needed and the pace of change must accelerate. The clean energy transition will also need to be balanced with affordability, energy system resiliency, and energy security in an increasingly uncertain macroeconomic environment.

The Global Energy Perspective 2024 is intended to serve as a fact base grounded in the best currently available data to help global stakeholders meet decarbonization goals. The report offers a detailed demand outlook for 68 sectors and 78 fuels across a 1.5° pathway, as set out in the Paris Agreement, as well as three bottom-up energy transition scenarios. These scenarios have been redesigned this year to better reflect changing global conditions, including geopolitical shifts, increasingly complex supply chains, and higher inflation. The critical question this research aims to address is how the world can achieve a step change in its efforts toward meeting net-zero goals and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

Two Russian Government Ministers Say Putin’s Russia Running Out of Soviet Resource Reserves

Paul Goble

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s expanded invasion of Ukraine has rapidly transformed into a war of attrition. Looming behind Moscow’s problems in recruiting enough men to fight and providing them with sufficient weapons is a bigger issue: Russia is running out of essential reserves left over from Soviet times. These reserves include natural resources developed before 1991, transportation infrastructure needed to access and exploit deposits, and a power grid that has not been expanded sufficiently since the Soviet period to support new finds or even fully realize old ones. Experts have talked about these problems for years. Now, these three problems have grown to the point that ministers and other senior officials are warning of real dangers ahead, even as Putin continues to offer upbeat talk about his plans for major projects in all three directions. Such projects are unlikely to be fully funded or ever completed so long as his war against Ukraine continues. (For an example of projects announced with much pomp that are delayed or never completed, see The Barents Observer, December 9, 2021). As the war wages on, the Kremlin leader is likely to be confronted with a serious deterioration in Russian capacities. He may be reduced to asking Beijing for help. China could provide the much-needed assistance, but it will come at a price: Moscow will have to make concessions that will render Russia Beijing’s junior partner, an arrangement that many Russians will find highly offensive (see EDM, June 16, 2022). The dwindling Soviet reserves may become an important foundation for more protests against Putin’s war in Ukraine, especially as senior members of the Russian government are actively discussing these problems (TASS, September 11).

Moscow Considers Borrowing From Tehran’s Economic Model to Weather Sanctions

Ksenia Kirillova

On September 9, the Valdai Discussion Club, a Moscow-based think tank, published the report “Neither East Nor West: How the Iranian Economy Handles Sanctions.” The report analyzes the several waves of sanctions imposed on Iran and concludes that the country did not cope well with overcoming their consequences. The authors note, “It turned out to be impossible to simultaneously maintain the exchange rate and inflation, as well as meet the needs of socially vulnerable population groups. … Administrative measures had the opposite effect” and led to inflation of no less than 40 percent per year (Valdai Discussion Club, September 9). Since the beginning of Russia’s war against Ukraine, some Kremlin propagandists have called for turning to the Iranian experience of living under sanctions. In 2022, several publications appeared trying to analyze the Iranian economy “if projected on Russia” to understand how much of Tehran’s experience could be applied in Russia (Рlusworld.ru, August 1, 2022). Overall, the authors of such articles drew optimistic conclusions that “solving complicated issues stimulates development.” Under sanctions, Iran was able to conduct scientific research and even make breakthroughs—albeit “on a limited scale” (Еurasianet, January 23, 2023). Despite the Valdai Club report, Russia’s continued economic deterioration has caused some in Moscow to look at other countries’ experiences under sanctions, primarily Iran, for a potential model to better combat degradation.

Russia Looks to Target Achilles’ Heel of Western Economies on Ocean Floor

Andrii Ryzhenko

On September 10, Nils Andreas Stensoenes, head of the Norwegian Intelligence Service, stated that he believes Russia will likely conduct more sabotage operations against European energy infrastructure because the risk level has changed as Russia’s war in Ukraine prolongs and the West continues to aid Ukraine (Evropeyskaya Pravda, September 11). Over the past year, reports have proliferated that the Russian Federation, along with increasing its military presence, is conducting intensive research on the underwater infrastructure of the Atlantic Ocean, potentially creating a threat to the global network of cables through which almost all Internet and financial traffic flows. Simply put, this complex of underwater cables ensures global connectivity. Any significant damage to this network would threaten global trade, military readiness, logistics, and Internet connectivity. According to various estimates, over $10 trillion in financial transactions, commercial payments, and trade operations occur worldwide every day. More than 95 percent of global communications are carried out through a network of approximately 500 cables laid across the world’s oceans (TSN.ua, February 22). The potential threat emanating from Moscow worries Western military and political leadership, who are highly dependent on the resilience of these communication lines.

The protection of underwater cables is a tactical mission for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), with strategic implications for the functioning of its members’ national economies and security apparatuses. In recent years, NATO allies have identified several instances of suspicious activity around underwater infrastructure (see EDM, October 4, 2022). In April, Vice-Admiral Didier Maleterre, deputy commander of NATO’s Allied Maritime Command, stated, “Russians have developed a lot of hybrid warfare under the sea to disrupt the European economy, through cables, Internet cables, pipelines” (Unian.net, April 24). Additionally, concerns are growing that Russia may target underwater cables and other critical infrastructure to disrupt life in the West and gain leverage over those countries providing security assistance to Ukraine.

Israeli Society Is in a Deepening State of Contradiction

Mairav Zonszein

Nearly a year into the Gaza war, the sense of dread in Israel is all-consuming. Since the twin assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders within hours of each other in Beirut and Tehran, respectively, nearly two weeks ago, Israelis have anxiously awaited a retaliatory attack by Iran and its regional allies. Despite some indications from Iran that it’s not seeking an all-out war, fears of a larger regional escalation continue to reverberate around the globe. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor any other Israeli leader has publicly addressed citizens’ concerns or outlined how Israel will react, beyond saying that the country is prepared and will exact a heavy price from its enemies.

A version of daily life continues even as Israeli society is on edge. After 10 months, most people have become accustomed to it. They go to their jobs or the beach; kids head to summer camp. Yet some have started hoarding food and generators. Most flights to and from Israel have been canceled, preventing people from leaving and leaving many Israelis stranded abroad. Israeli media has been rife with speculation and scenarios for all-out war from almost every direction: Hezbollah in the north, Iran in the east, the Houthis to the southeast, and Hamas in the south.

Even before this escalation, many Israelis, especially those in the north, were demanding the government invade Lebanon, as if there is a magic button they can press to get rid of the threat from Hezbollah. A recent poll shows a majority of Israelis want the country to take more aggressive military action against Hezbollah, even as they are disenchanted with the leadership. Many of the mayors and municipal leaders who have been demanding the army turn its focus to Lebanon have also condemned the Netanyahu government for its intelligence and security failures, and for failing to devise a plan to restore security to Israel’s north.

North Korea releases images of Kim Jong Un visiting a uranium enrichment site, giving rare glimpse inside its nuclear program

Yoonjung Seo, Lucas Lilieholm and Mike Valerio

New pictures of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un touring what state media said is a uranium enrichment facility have given an extremely rare glimpse inside the isolated nation’s closely guarded nuclear weapons program.

According to a report from Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Friday, Kim visited the facility - a bright, sterile warehouse filled with long rows of cylindrical machinery - which is used to produce weapons-grade nuclear material for the North’s growing arsenal.

The report comes as North Korea continues to ramp up its illegal nuclear weapons program and strengthens relations with Russia, deepening widespread concern in the West over the isolated nation’s direction under Kim.

The location and exact date of Kim’s visit to the site were not disclosed in the report, but the purpose of his inspection was clear, according to KCNA: to lay out a “long-term plan for increasing the production of weapon-grade nuclear materials.”

He’s Known as ‘Ivan the Troll.’ His 3D-Printed Guns Have Gone Viral.

Lizzie Dearden and Thomas Gibbons-Neff

After an attempted gang murder in the French city of Marseille last year, the police found what appeared to be a toy assault rifle, seemingly crafted from plastic and Lego parts.

“But the weapon was lethal,” Col. Hervé Pétry of the national gendarmerie recalled.

In the past three years, this model of homemade semiautomatic firearm, known as an FGC-9, has appeared in the hands of paramilitaries in Northern Ireland, rebels in Myanmar and neo-Nazis in Spain. In October, a British teenager will be sentenced for building an FGC-9 in one of the latest terrorism cases to involve the weapon.

An online group known as Deterrence Dispensed publishes free instructions on how to build the weapon, a manual that says people everywhere should stand armed and ready.

“We together can defeat for good the infringement that is taking place on our natural-born right to bear arms, defend ourselves and rise up against tyranny,” the document says.

This American brand of libertarianism has historically been a tough sell in many other parts of the world. Even if some people believed it in theory, strict laws made buying a gun so difficult that the ideology was almost beside the point.

Sleeping with Boots On and Winning Barefoot

Dr. Shmuel Harlap

On October 7, in the Gaza Division, they didn’t sleep in their boots. Had they slept in their boots, as is customary in field units along the borders, the division’s forces would have gone on alert at dawn and would have been prepared for battle with the Nukhba terrorists.

In contrast, Israel’s athletes at the Paris Olympics won barefoot: Seven Olympic medals were awarded to Israeli athletes in sailing, judo, rhythmic gymnastics, and the floor exercise. It turns out that total victory in competitive sports is possible—even without shoes. And unlike Israeli athletics, Israel’s national soccer team, which competes in shoes, remains the crown jewel of Israeli sports. Since the World Cup in Mexico in 1970, the team has not succeeded in qualifying for the World Cup or the Euro. This is despite the fact that the budget of the Israel Football Association has surpassed NIS 108 million during the past three years. The budget of the Olympic Committee of Israel during those years reached about NIS 94 million.

Despite similar budgets in recent years, Israeli soccer has repeatedly failed, in contrast to the successes of barefoot athletics.

The victories of the Olympic team stand out against the backdrop of the Israeli defeat on October 7. In war, Israeli victory requires sleeping in boots. In sports, Olympic victories were achieved in events where Israeli athletes competed barefoot.

A Foreign Policy Legacy

Monte Erfourth

Introduction

President Joe Biden assumed office in 2021, facing a turbulent international landscape characterized by rising great power competition, a global pandemic, and a fractured U.S. role on the world stage, particularly in the wake of the previous administration's more unilateral approach. His foreign policy, built on a promise to restore U.S. leadership and rebuild alliances, was shaped by notable successes and significant missteps.

Biden's foreign policy legacy will likely emphasize multilateralism and the rebuilding of alliances, particularly in response to the previous administration's unilateral approach. His foreign policy has focused on countering China's influence and strengthening partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region. In Europe, he has worked to solidify NATO alliances and support Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. This includes providing military and economic aid to Ukraine and imposing sanctions against Russia.

Domestically, Biden's foreign policy has faced challenges due to political divisions, which could impact the sustainability of his initiatives. However, his administration's efforts to engage in diplomacy and foster international cooperation may leave a legacy of renewed global partnerships and a strategic focus on addressing transnational issues collaboratively.

War is Still a Racket - Opinion

Rouge One

Introduction

Smedley Butler’s War Is a Racket, written in 1935, is more relevant today than ever. In a world dominated by defense contractors, private military companies, and oil interests, Butler’s piercing critique of war profiteering remains shockingly accurate. His core thesis? War is not fought for democracy or freedom but for profit. As we examine conflicts from the past 20 years, from the Iraq War to the Afghanistan debacle and U.S. global arms sales, it becomes clear: war is still very much a racket, and the corporations are still cashing in while soldiers pay the price. Today, things are probably even more insidious. In 1961, two and a half decades after Butler’s prophetic words, another famous general warned America to beware of the gravity-warping defense industry.

This article will examine their warnings and show the causal links of how the Defense industry has perverted American foreign policy decisions for generations.

Butler’s Prophetic Warning

Two-time Medal of Honor recipient Major General Smedley Butler, U.S. Marine Corps, didn’t hold back when he wrote War Is a Racket in 1935. The veteran of “The Small Wars” in the Western Hemisphere, the Great War, China during the Boxer Rebellion, and other campaigns, Butler had a depth of war experience, particularly in what some dubbed America’s colonial period. Based on decades of global combat experience, he exposed how wars serve the interests of a small, powerful group—corporations, bankers, and arms manufacturers—while the general public foots the bill in blood and taxes. Butler’s claim was simple: wars are fought not for freedom but for the massive profits that flow to these corporations.

The Return of Paul Nitze—and His Dangers

Theodore Bunzel

In The Hedgehog and the Fox, Isaiah Berlin recounts the ancient Greek proverb that “the fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.” Berlin’s essay was apparently written as something of a throwaway, but it remains a useful lens through which to understand the grand strategists of U.S. foreign policy, especially during the early Cold War.

Russia goes all-out with covert disinformation aimed at Harris, Microsoft report says

ALI SWENSON

The video was seen millions of times across social media but some viewers were suspicious: It featured a young Black woman who claimed Vice President Kamala Harris left her paralyzed in a hit-and-run accident in San Francisco 13 years ago.

In an emotional retelling from a wheelchair, the alleged victim said she “cannot remain silent anymore” and lamented that her childhood had “ended too soon.”

Immediately after the video was posted on Sept. 2, social media users pointed out reasons to be wary. The purported news channel it came from, San Francisco’s KBSF-TV, didn’t exist. A website for the channel set up just a week earlier contained plagiarized articles from real news outlets. The woman’s X-ray images shown in the video were taken from online medical journals. And the video and the text story on the website spelled the alleged victim’s name differently.

The caution was warranted, according to a new Microsoft threat intelligence report, which confirms the fabricated tale was disinformation from a Russia-linked troll farm.

Milei Wants More Government Spending: For The Military, Of Course – OpEd

Ryan McMaken

From day one of his presidency, it has been apparent that Argentina’s President Javier Milei wants the Argentinian regime to be a willing member of the US-NATO axis in international affairs. Milei has demonstrated this with a variety of overtures toward the State of Israel and by his repeated meetings with the dictator of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

This all positions Burenos Aires as a reliable supplicant and friend of Washington. Or, as I summed it up back in June:

“[Milei] displays no particular affinity for anti-interventionist foreign policy, and he’s certainly no threat to the established US-dominated geopolitical order. Milei is, and will likely continue to be, a reliable ally of the American security state. More succinctly, we might say that Milei is a “CIA-approved head of state.” “

It should be noted that there is no reason why Milei is required to take these positions. Milei could easily stake out a position making Argentina a “non-aligned” country that refuses to participate in US and NATO meddling in Eastern Europe. Milei’s regime could easily choose to not take a position in the multiplying conflicts between Washington-Tel Aviv and half a dozen other states.

Ukraine War Turns Into Russian Roulette – OpEd

M.K. Bhadrakumar

The UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer met with the US President Joe Biden in the White House on Friday with the question of the use of long-range missiles by Ukraine to hit deep inside Russia on their agenda of conversation. But there were no announcements, nor was there any joint press conference.

Starmer later told the media that the talks were “productive” but concentrated on “strategy” rather than a “particular step or tactic”. He did not signal any decision on allowing Kiev to fire long-range missiles into Russia.

Starmer said no final decision had been taken on the Storm Shadow missiles and hinted that further developments may follow at the gathering of the UN General Assembly later this month. “We’ll obviously pick up again in UNGA in just a few days time with a wider group of individuals,” he said.

One reason for such extreme secrecy is that the US and UK are intensely conscious of the Russian President Vladimir Putin’s explicit warning on Thursday that any use of western long-range missiles to strike Russia “will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are parties to the war in Ukraine. This will mean their direct involvement in the conflict, and it will clearly change the very essence, the very nature of the conflict dramatically.”

A Realist Perspective on AI Regulation

Viktor Mayer-Schönberger and Urs Gasser

Dozens of nations around the world are hurrying legislation to regulate the design and use of artificial intelligence. Ahead of most, the European Union just passed a comprehensive AI Act. Its stringent restrictions will come into force over the next two years. Many other nations are not far behind. Global corporate players are already lamenting the resulting regulatory fragmentation, suggesting this will deprive users of valuable services or at the very least increase costs that ultimately consumers will have to pay for. They aren’t wrong. Regulatory diversity does lead to higher transaction costs. But their innocent-sounding warning on behalf of the world’s consumers is not only a bit self-serving. It’s also analytically flawed.

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