Indian Strategic Studies: 08/15/24

15 August 2024

Sri Lanka, Maldives ... Bangladesh? Why India beats China's game in its neighbourhood

Prabhash K Dutta

China’s significant investments in South Asia have often come with a heavy price tag, as countries like Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Bangladesh grapple with the consequences of Chinese debt. This has led to a complex dynamic where initial economic benefits are overshadowed by financial instability.

This also comes as a challenge for India as it tries to keep its unrivalled position intact in South Asia. The success of India’s approach will depend a lot on how it leverages economic ties, provides timely support, and adapts to shifting political dynamics.

It unravelled with Sri Lanka

In 2022, Sri Lanka was engulfed in a severe economic crisis that led to widespread protests and the ousting of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. The crisis was exacerbated by substantial Chinese debt, which had become unsustainable for the country. The economic downturn was marked by soaring inflation and a significant drop in foreign reserves.

India stepped in as the first responder, providing crucial financial aid and securing an IMF package for Sri Lanka. This assistance was pivotal in stabilising the Sri Lankan economy, with inflation dramatically decreasing from 67.4 per cent in September 2022 to below 3 per cent today. India has a decades-long experience of managing inflation through fiscal policy interventions — something that Sri Lanka benefitted from since it sought New Delhi’s help in the face of stringent requirements set by agencies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a bailout deal.

Developing an Effective Space Strategy for India’s Defence

Jeffy Jacob

Considering the need for interoperability between the army, navy, air force, and space organisations, how can India develop an effective space strategy?

There is a need to maximize the use of space-based resources, focusing particularly on downstream applications, including optimising requirements through defence challenges. Ideally, sharing raw data from a central source could be beneficial, particularly when multiple services have diverse applications that rely on specific electromagnetic spectrums.

For instance, one scientist might utilize the spectrum to analyse changes in vegetation on land, while another scientist could apply it to study water bodies. It depends on different scientist’s interpretation of satellite images for different purposes.

As the threat from land, water, and air increases, the monitoring and mapping of sea and land do not belong to just one service.

What role can India’s private sector play in advancing the military space program and bolstering the nation’s space capabilities?

The focus of the Indian Private Sector currently is on expanding our remote sensing capabilities regarding launches, constellations, and building larger satellites. There is less emphasis on scientific research and exploring new frontiers as there is no incentive or business opportunity currently to invest time and money in these areas.

India’s Russia Option

Abhinav Pandya

After swearing in as India’s Prime Minister for a third term, Modi’s first foreign visit was to Russia. This was not quite unexpected to seasoned observers. However, the visit was viewed with serious concern, curiosity, and optimism in geopolitical quarters across the world. Aside from the routine bilateral issues of energy, connectivity, trade payments system, health, and defense cooperation, this time, Modi’s visit is likely to focus on a highly critical and sensitive factor in discussions, i.e., China. Beijing’s strengthening ties with Moscow, its strategic partnership with Azerbaijan, and its expanding influence and clout in both the SCO and BRICS are indeed matters of concern for India due to its friction with China.

After the 2020 border clash, relations between Delhi and Beijing deteriorated, and the current phase continues to be strenuous. However, India, at this stage, prefers to resolve the border issues through negotiations and diplomacy. In my previous articles for The National Interest, I discussed the merits and demerits of aligning with the West to address its China challenge. Another window that India can explore is opening a backchannel dialogue route to Beijing through Moscow.

Nuclear Shadows Over South Asia: Strategic Instabilities in the China-India-Pakistan Triad

Shawn Rostker

Recent attention to nuclear dangers has been largely devoted to expanding Chinese forces, Russian nuclear threats, and the growing momentum toward a comprehensive nuclear buildup in the United States. At the same time, there is a similar but largely unseen dynamic unfolding on the Asian Subcontinent – one that emulates the great power conundrum and should be more acutely observed. The China-India-Pakistan triad raises strategic risks and instabilities, posing a perhaps more concerning threat to nuclear non-use than the ongoing competition between China, Russia, and the United States.

Long considered the most likely theater for nuclear use, the same precarities, tensions, and territorial disputes that defined the three-way relationship between India, China, and Pakistan decades ago continue to shape their interactions. A quarter-century after the nuclearization of the Asian Subcontinent, a three-sided combination of evolving nuclear postures, military-technological modernizations, and strategic competition now compound these drivers of instability and are bringing the region closer to a nuclear crisis.

The Growing Rift Between Islamic State Khorasan Province and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan

Muhammad Imad Abbas

The world of jihadism is fickle. The priorities, aims, ideologies, and resources of jihadist organizations keep on changing over time.

Historically, the concept of jihad was predominantly based on one foundational line: to wage a war against any person or territory that was offensive or aggressive against the Muslims. Many people who were either inspired by the early Islamic history or the later teachings of Syed Qutb, an Egyptian Islamist, embraced only this original belief.

However, in the contemporary world, the world of jihadism has unprecedentedly transformed. In the present time, one jihadist group differentiates itself from other groups based on territoriality, beliefs, and ideology. This has opened a new front line in the jihadist world in which one particular group will criticize another on the basis of these factors discussed above.

Lately, a new schism has emerged between Islamic State of Khorasan (ISKP) and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) over ideologies, geographical area, and role in the international order. This structural rift became palpable in the recent polemics and audio messages released by the ISKP from its semi-official media outlet, Al-Azaim Media Foundation.

Bangladesh’s Media Has Been Tested by Fire - Analysi

Bibek Bhandari

Photojournalist Fatima Tuj Johora faced tear gas, rubber bullets, and police aggression while covering Bangladesh’s protest movement. But what she feared most was the lack of trust toward journalists.

Islamist majorities terrorise Hindus and Christians, but the West looks away

Konstantinos Bogdanos

With hundreds of Hindus and Christians killed and thousands more attacked and wounded, violence on minorities in Bangladesh finally calls western attention to what happens when an Islamist majority is left unchecked to terrorise non-Muslims.

At last, Western selective sensitivity should open its eyes to a state of affairs that manifests itself not only in Bangladesh, formerly known as East Pakistan, but also in Pakistan and elsewhere.

The Bangladesh crisis should act as a belated wake-up call. It must alert us to the fact that brutal violations of human and civil rights occur all over South Asia – and especially in countries dominated by Muslim majorities and ruled by Islamists.

Whereas Afghanistan, of course, is nothing short of a modern-day theocratic dystopia and a rogue state which has cut ties with the rest of the world, it is high time we took a closer look at what is happening in Pakistan.

Army Intel Sees Huge “Dichotomy” Separating US & Chinese Concepts of AI in Warfare

Kris Osborn

The Pentagon is preparing to fight large terminator-type armies of autonomous armed robots, given the pace at which AI is being accelerated and integrated into weapons systems and military technologies. It may seem like a sci-fi kind of Hollywood exaggeration, but the technology to do this … .or something close to this … is basically here and improvements in AI-enabled algorithms are arriving quickly. While the US is carefully weighing the implications of these kinds of emerging technologies and the tactical, ethical and conceptual complexities they present, there is little assurance that potential adversaries will view these variables through a similar ethical lens. This is widely known and discussed, therefore weapons developers, tacticians, technologists and warfare Commanders in all the US services are aware of the need to prepare to fight armed robots.

A significant Army intelligence report adds depth and context to these concerns by pointing to a massive discrepancy between US and Chinese concepts of warfare decision-making as it pertains to advancing technology. The text of the report, titled “The Operational Environment 2024-2034 Large-Scale Combat Operations.” (US Army Training and Doctrine Command, G2) describes this juxtaposition in terms of a “dichotomy” …. A term used to describe a massive “divergence” between US and Chinese conceptual and doctrinal approaches to the use of AI, computer automation and autonomy. Portions of the report discuss the many variables related to both the “art” and “science” of war separating Chinese from US strategic and tactical warfare thinking.

What China's Dominance in Electronics Manufacturing Means for U.S. National Security

Brian J. Cavanaugh

One of the most pressing concerns today is the growing dominance of China’s heavily state-subsidized electronics manufacturing industry. What has not been widely discussed is its rapidly growing hold on the digital display market. This dominance not only threatens the economic health of the U.S. electronics sector but also poses significant national security risks that demand urgent attention. As someone who served three years on the National Security Council as the Senior Director for Resilience, I have witnessed firsthand the intricate and often unseen ways in which global supply chains impact national security.

China’s rise as a global leader in electronics manufacturing is no accident. It is the result of a deliberate, strategic, and heavily subsidized effort by the Chinese government to dominate critical technological sectors, exemplified by the “Made in China 2025” initiative. Billions of dollars in state subsidies have been funneled into companies that produce everything from smartphones to advanced digital displays. This has allowed Chinese firms to grow their market share in the LCD market dramatically, from 13 percent in 2016 to 45 percent in 2023.

In the digital display market, which includes everything from televisions to computer monitors and smartphones to military hardware, Chinese companies have made significant inroads. Firms like BOE Technology and TCL have become household names, often supplying major brands with the critical components needed for their devices. The consequence is a market heavily dependent on Chinese manufacturing capabilities.

Microsoft and China — a Clear and Present Danger to U.S. National Security?

Amy K. Mitchell

Americans have been fixated on domestic politics over the last month, and rightly so. However, it should be recognized that our adversaries during this time have stood idly by. In just the last few weeks — the war in the Middle East has significantly expanded and may devolve into a wider war, a children’s hospital in Ukraine — a hospital that treats children with cancer and other life-threatening diseases — was bombed by Russia. The People’s Republic of China continues antagonizing U.S. ally the Philippines in the South China Sea.

While Washington is distracted, America’s adversaries continue to use the nonstop election cycle to exploit U.S. weaknesses.

What has not been widely reported during this time, and is one of our most significant weaknesses, is America’s continued over-dependence on tech giants. While steps have been taken to develop a national strategy on cybersecurity, outpacing our adversaries’ ability to make incursions into our nation’s digital architecture has been woefully wanting. If anyone needs convincing, look at what is happening in France during the Olympics, with cyberattack after cyberattack.

Should Israel Cross Russia‘s Rubicon?

Anthony De Luca-Baratta, William Erich Ellison, Joseph Schneider Malamud & Mollie Sharfman

After Russia attacked Ukraine in February 2022, most of the Western world united in its support for Ukraine against the Russian assault. The United States and its allies across Europe, Northeast Asia, and Australasia imposed wide-ranging sanctions on Russia, reduced diplomatic ties with Moscow, and began providing Kyiv with enormous quantities of economic, humanitarian, and military aid. Nevertheless, Israel did not go nearly as far as most other Western democracies in its support for Kyiv.

As we wrote in a previous article, Jerusalem has limited its assistance to rhetorical volleys, humanitarian aid, and some provision of intelligence, refraining from providing Kyiv with weapons and declining to participate in the international sanctions regime against Russia. Given Israel’s alignment with the American-led Western bloc in the new cold war against the Sino-Russian-Iranian Eurasian bloc, such a posture might seem surprising. However, Israel’s calculus becomes clearer when we consider Jerusalem’s need for freedom of action in striking Iranian targets in Syria and its desire to blunt the consolidation of Russia’s alliance with Iran, Israel’s archenemy.

Accepting the realities of Bangladesh

Tara Kartha

As the situation in Bangladesh unfolds, television anchors and their guests outdoing each other in finding a new angle, a new accusation, or yet another conspiracy theory. True, there is much to be alarmed about, both on the immediate front and in terms of the future trajectory of India-Bangladesh ties. But some realities have to be faced, and acknowledged, so that analysis is grounded in reality rather than rhetoric.

First, the discussion in whether or not India should have welcomed former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina into India should take into consideration that everyone has a right to seek political asylum. Article 14 of the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights says “everyone has the right to seek and to enjoy in other countries asylum from persecution”. The unfolding violence indicates that if she had stayed, her treatment would have gone far further than just persecution. As a leader who had undoubtedly delivered in terms of bilateral relations, and an often overlooked fact, also delivered to her people – she deserved every courtesy on her arrival. Her reception by the National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, was, therefore, not another ‘proof’ of intelligence collusion, but the courtesy extended to her as was her right. There’s however a cautionary clause which says this right “may not be invoked… in the case of prosecutions genuinely arising from non-political crimes or from acts contrary to the purposes and principles of the United Nations”. In short, if she is indicted by Bangladeshi courts for authorising the killing of some 300 plus people who died in the protests, her right of shelter would become questionable, and a problem for India and could complicate matters. At present, Delhi is just riding out the storm, until a quiet and amicable solution can be found.

Iran’s West Asian Neo-Empire: Armed and Ready

Jamsheed K. Choksy and Carol E. B. Choksy

“Death to America, death to Israel” emerged as a slogan of the 1978–1979 Islamic Revolution, then was transformed into a reason for existence of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Conventional and chemical weapons that pounded Iranian cities from Iraq during the latter nation’s US-supported war between 1980–1988 did not topple the Islamist regime. Nor have subsequent decades of ever-mounting sanctions or, more recently, the elimination of Iranian nuclear scientists and military commanders as well as its client Hamas and Hezbollah leaders and commanders by the US and Israel. Iran’s leadership, under second Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei since 1989, seems thoroughly convinced that their revolutionary guide and first Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was correct when he declared in 1979, during the Embassy Hostage Crisis, that: “America can’t do a damn thing against us.” Indeed, Tehran has positioned itself to take on the United States of America, Israel, and any Arab nations militarily from all corners of West Asia. Tehran will do so “cautiously and carefully” directly and also circuitously through its West Asian retainers.

More U.S. Forces in the Middle East? Here We Go Again | Opinion

Demri Scott Greggo

Earlier this month, Biden administration officials announced that the U.S. military will make a series of "force posture" adjustments in the Middle East to increase support for Israel's defense.

In layman's terms? More U.S. forces are going to the Middle East.

These force posture adjustments are in response to heightened tension between Iran and Israel. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was recently killed in Tehran by a suspected Israeli attack. In response, Iran vowed retaliation against Israel, which has caused concern in Washington.

In the context of this escalating situation, the U.S. military has made a series of force posture changes including deploying additional ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers to the U.S. European Command and U.S. Central Command regions, along with the deployment of an additional fighter squadron to the Middle East to reinforce American "defensive air support capability."

Ukraine’s raid in Russia is an audacious gamble

Jacob Reynolds

Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has taken both the Kremlin and the West by surprise.

After launching the shock raid on 6 August, Ukrainian forces have made significant inroads into Russia. They now claim to hold 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory, and have also been involved in skirmishes on the border with Belgorod, another Russian region to the south of Kursk.

It is worth pausing to note how remarkable this is. In the 900 days since Russia began its full-scale invasion, Ukraine has been battered by a Russian military enjoying a huge advantage in terms of men and military equipment. In recent months, the headlines in the West have become increasingly gloomy, as Russia has eked out consistent gains in Ukraine’s east, blasting what it calls ‘historic Russian lands’ with enormous remotely guided bombs. Ukraine’s manpower and morale are arguably at the lowest they’ve been since the start of the war. And yet Ukraine has once again shown that it is still capable of springing a surprise and striking a blow against Russia.

The Second Battle of Kursk: An Omen of Doom?

Walter Clemens

The Battle of Kursk from July to August 1943 marked a decisive turning point in the Soviet campaign to drive Hitler’s Wehrmacht from the USSR. Eighty-one years later, will another Battle of Kursk become a major event in Ukraine’s campaign to purge its territory from Vladimir Putin’s forces?

The German debacle in 1943 transpired just two years after Hitler’s June 1941 Blitzkrieg carried his forces swiftly beyond Leningrad until they stalled, froze, and shriveled at Stalingrad. Today’s Battle of Kursk takes place just two-and-a-half years since Putin’s forces, hoping for a lightening victory, poured into Ukraine in early 2022.

Putin, like Hitler, underestimated his target and overvalued his assets. Soon, both dictators faced difficulties supplying their forces and replacing losses of troops and equipment. Neither the vozhd’ nor the Fűhrer anticipated the help the United States would provide to the victims of their aggression.

The New Reality in the Ukraine War

George Friedman

Last week, Ukraine did what many thought impossible when it invaded Russia – and, indeed, something that had not happened since World War II. The implications are many, but first, some context.

Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 to block what Moscow believed was a potential path of attack by NATO. Moscow thought Ukraine was weak and divided, and it concluded that an invasion would rapidly destroy Ukrainian forces and allow for Russian occupation. Time was of the essence. Every minute the war dragged on was a minute in which the U.S. or NATO could intervene. The government did not expect and thus did not plan for a long and costly war, and it has been paying for its mistake ever since. Even so, Russia believed it still had one important advantage: It dominated the battlefields. If Moscow could not control the strategic aspects of the war, it could at least control the tactical aspects. In this way, it was able to keep Ukrainian forces on the defensive – until last week, when Ukraine invaded Kursk oblast.

How Ukraine was able to invade Russia isn’t yet exactly clear. Sometimes a military falls into a pattern in which certain things are seen as impossible. Sometimes a military lacks or ignores intelligence. Russia began the war on poor intelligence, so a similarly massive intelligence lapse that failed to predict an invasion would be consistent with the pattern. It’s no secret that Russia has turned to North Korea and Iran for additional weaponry lately, so it’s possible Ukraine saw this as the moment of weakness it was. After all, it’s unwise to depend on easily severed foreign supply lines and to admit you’re running out of weapons.

Ukraine’s Surprise Attack

German Lopez

Ukraine’s efforts to retake territory from Russia have stalled. But the Ukrainian military has tried to get back at Moscow in other ways. In the past, it has launched drone attacks in Russia and backed hit-and-run incursions in which Russian exiles struck targets inside their former homeland.

Last week, Ukraine tried something new. Its own forces marched miles across the Russian border in a surprise operation. They now control some Russian land in the region of Kursk, including dozens of towns and villages. “It’s an attempt to give Russia somewhat of a shock,” my colleague Eric Schmitt, who covers national security, told me. “It could give Ukraine a win, or at least make them feel good for a few days. Does it change the larger calculus on the battlefield? That remains to be seen.”

Ukraine's incursion

Ukraine’s leaders are seeking to galvanize support at home and abroad for its war effort. An assault on Russian soil might not get Ukraine closer to seizing all of the land it has lost, but it shows that Ukraine can still surprise — and embarrass — its enemy.

Does Israel’s Conflict with Hezbollah Have an Endgame?

Daniel Byman

Israel’s war in Gaza has long been embedded in a broader regional conflict, with Iran; the Houthis in Yemen; and most importantly, the Lebanese Hezbollah also attacking Israel in the name of solidarity with Hamas. Each of these mini-conflicts risks becoming more intense after the back-to-back Israeli assassinations in late July of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh at an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps safe house in the heart of Tehran.

Ukraine Launches Large-Scale Aerial Attack on Russia's Border Regions

Ellie Cook

Ukraine launched drone and missile attacks on several Russian border regions overnight, according to Moscow authorities, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged the ongoing push into Russian territory for the first time.

Russia's Defense Ministry said early on Sunday that its air defenses had destroyed 14 drones and four Tochka-U tactical missiles over the border Kursk region, as well as 16 drones over the Voronezh region to the east and three uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) over Belgorod. Drones were also shot down over the Bryansk and Oryol regions, Moscow said.

A downed Ukrainian missile fell on a multistory building in the city of Kursk overnight, injuring 13 people, Kursk acting regional governor Alexei Smirov said in post to messaging app Telegram. In a separate statement carried by Russian state media on Sunday, Health Minister Mikhail Murashko said 69 people who were injured in shelling on the Kursk region were being treated in hospital.

The Undoing of Israel The Dark Futures That Await After the War in Gaza

Ilan Z. Baron and Ilai Z. Saltzman

At Israel’s creation, in May 1948, its founders envisioned a country defined by humanist values and one that upheld international law. The Declaration of Independence, Israel’s founding document, insisted that the state “will ensure complete equality of social and political rights to all its inhabitants irrespective of religion, race, or sex” and that it would “be faithful to the principles of the Charter of the United Nations.” But from the very beginning, this vision was never fulfilled—after all, for nearly two decades after the signing of the declaration, Palestinians in Israel lived under martial law. Israeli society has never been able to resolve the contradiction between the universalist appeal of the declaration’s ideals and the narrower urgency of the founding of Israel as a Jewish state to protect the Jewish people.

Over the decades, this intrinsic contradiction has surfaced again and again, creating political upheavals that have shaped and reshaped Israeli society and politics—without ever resolving the contradiction. But now the war in Gaza and the judicial crisis that preceded it have made it harder than ever to go on this way, pushing Israel to a breaking point.

This new Hamas chief signals more war, not less for Gaza

Abdelhalim Abdelrahman

While the entire Middle East remains in suspense over how the Iranian-led “axis of resistance” will respond to the July 31assassination in Tehran, presumably by Israel, of Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh, the group’s decision to make Yahya Sinwar its new chief raises questions about its future strategy.

Unlike Haniyeh, who was based in Qatar, and acted as Hamas’s chief representative abroad, Sinwar has been based in Gaza since his release from an Israeli prison in 2011 as part of a prisoner exchange. In Gaza, Sinwar, whom the U.S.designated a terrorist in 2015, served as Hamas’s politburo from 2013 until 2017, when he became the movement’s leader in Gaza. Sinwar is one of Hamas’s longtime military commanders. Israel regards him as the ultimate mastermind of Operation al-Aqsa Flood.

Given the very different circumstances in which Haniyeh and Sinwar have operated, it seems reasonable to ask whether the formal change of leadership will bring changes in the way it carries out its struggle against Israel, its engagement with other Palestinian factions, and its relations with foreign powers.

The New Kursk Offensive: Ukraine’s High-Stakes Gamble

Mark Temnycky

On August 7, numerous outlets reported that the Ukrainians had launched an attack on Russia’s Kursk province. The Russian region shares a border with Ukraine. It is also just north of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.

After two days, Ukrainian forces ventured up to thirty-five kilometers beyond the Russian border into the Kursk Oblast. Caught unawares by the Ukrainian incursion, the Russians have now declared a state of emergency. Dozens of residents in Kursk province called on their government to intervene, and the Russian military redirected troops and equipment to the region. On August 10, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that they had “thwarted” the Ukrainian assault, though fighting appears to continue approximately six miles within Russian territory.

Why did Ukraine launch the surprise attack? What will unfold from these developments? How will the Ukrainian attack on Kursk impact the Russo-Ukraine war? Analysts have had many competing theories.

America’s One-War Military Is No Match for Reality

Mackenzie Eaglen

Four consecutive bipartisan defense strategy commissions have looked “under the hood” of America’s armed forces and all issued dire warnings.

The Department of Defense is out-matched for the united threats it faces. This is reinforced by the report from the National Defense Strategy Commission, which opens with a sobering declaration: “The Commission finds that the U.S. military lacks both the capabilities and the capacity required to be confident it can deter and prevail in combat.”

The report paints a stark picture of the global security environment, noting the threats the United States faces are “…the most serious and challenging the nation has encountered since 1945 and include the potential for near-term major war.”

Interview – Paul Stanilan

Where do you see the most exciting research/debates happening in your field?

There are so many possible answers to this question. Sometimes it seems fashionable to be down on the discipline and cynical about research, and do I understand why. But there are so many important and interesting topics available for study these days; I think there is a lot of exciting work going on and that could be done. I’ll pick a couple just as examples.

First, a lot of great new work is being done on electoral politics and violence, from patronage networks to armed political parties to how insurgents try to influence elections to state repression of electoral rivals. This work is pushing a lot of boundaries in very productive ways, across contexts and methods. It taps into big-picture scholarship on democratic backsliding (as well as those skeptical of that framing), political parties, state formation, and the quality of democracy, sitting nicely at the center of several pressing and important topics.

Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)