Indian Strategic Studies: 08/08/24

8 August 2024

India Stands to Lose in Bangladesh

Sumantra Maitra

Sheikh Hasina, once a darling of Western democracy and the long-time ruler of Bangladesh, has fled the country, and according to some Indian news reports, “was received by [India’s] National Security Advisor Ajit Doval” in an Indian military base after weeks of rioting and violence that saw the death of over three hundred people. “She arrived in a Bangladesh Air Force C-130 military transport—that has been parked near the Indian Air Force’s C-17 and C-130J aircrafts—and may fly to London to seek political asylum.” An interesting anecdote, that.

It’s difficult to gauge who's the geopolitical winner in this conflict. Bangladesh has been historically volatile, and Hasina has provided a form of order that one could have expected from Middle Eastern autocrats. Corrupt, to keep all factions somewhat satiated, but stable enough.

Nevertheless, the liberal American commentariat, in a position similar to President Barack Obama’s during the Arab Spring, has been opposed to Hasina’s increasingly authoritarian rule. So much so, that in some online circles, it is raising the question of whether the U.S. was behind the toppling of the regime.

Most importantly, Hasina was instrumental in signing deals with India that nominally are for trade, but, on deeper perusal, are military in nature. The rail connection between northeastern India and Bangladesh would have been militarily advantageous to India. Likewise, real estate and ports once eyed by China were offered to India to manage and rebuild.

Bangladesh ‘coup’ seems straight out of CIA playbook: Why India should be more watchful and alert - Opinion

Utpal Kumar

There is something intrinsically hypocritical about Western diplomacy when it comes to democracy. The Americans are particularly prone to the malaise. Historically, they are comfortable conducting businesses with autocrats and dictators. There are so many anecdotal instances where American politicians and diplomats showed their wearied disgust for the deliberative system in India, but preferred the men in khaki across India's western border and wilfully played Chinese checkers with Mao and his men.

Yet, every time an American diplomat meets an ally, especially of non-European origins, their discussion would invariably veer towards democracy, free and fair elections, and human rights.

Fareed Zakaria, in his book The Future of Freedom, mentions a similar incident surrounding then Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Annoyed by persistent American exhortation on democracy, Mubarak reportedly asked, “If I were to do what you ask, Islamic fundamentalists will take over Egypt. Is that what you want?” Incidentally, Mubarak was one of the first casualties of the 2010-12 Arab Spring, and he was replaced by an Islamist leadership backed by the Muslim Brotherhood. The Saudis, too, have often reminded Americans that if they pressed their government too hard, “the likely alternative to the regime is not Jeffersonian democracy by a Taliban-style theocracy”.

A tale of two bubbles

David P Goldman

Bubbles last until they feel like fundamentals, and until last week, investors believed that tech stocks could only head up and the Japanese yen could only head down. By Monday’s market opening, investors cowered for shelter as the two bubbles popped in unison.

The Biden administration in Washington and the Kishida government in Tokyo both pursued the same unsustainable policy, ballooning the government balance sheet to push up asset prices.

By July 31, when the Bank of Japan raised its short-term interest rate to 0.25% from zero and announced that it would “taper” its purchases of government bonds, the central bank owned half the outstanding float of Japanese government bonds.

Japan’s debt-buying binge pushed up inflation expectations, weakened the yen and buoyed Japan’s stock market during the past three years.

A lower yen translated foreign earnings into a larger sum of local currency and inflation reduced real wages, causing a transfer of national income to corporations away from households.

The Remarkable Downfall of Bangladesh’s Iron Lady

Ali Riaz

In a move that would have seemed unimaginable just a few weeks ago, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina ended a decade and a half of uninterrupted rule on August 5, resigning her post and fleeing the country. The military, which has seized power in Bangladesh on several occasions, urged Hasina to leave as a popular nationwide uprising threatened to overwhelm security forces. In surreal scenes, protesters wandered through the rooms of the prime minister’s residence in the capital, Dhaka, lounging on its furniture, posing for photos, and stealing. For now, reports suggest that Waker-uz-Zaman, the army chief, has taken the reins. He has pledged to form an interim government ahead of fresh elections, although how such a government will be put in place remains unclear.

Hasina’s downfall closes an up-and-down chapter in Bangladeshi history. In recent decades, the country had been celebrated as a poster child of globalization and development, with the economy growing briskly, incomes on the rise, and various social indicators moving in positive directions. And yet all the good news obscured abiding weaknesses, including widening economic disparities, high youth unemployment, and a turn to autocracy under Hasina and her party, the Awami League. Dissatisfaction with the government and economy fueled protests that erupted in Dhaka in early July before spreading around the country. As she has done in the past, Hasina suppressed the demonstrations ruthlessly. Security forces killed hundreds of people in just a few weeks, and charity groups were left to gather the unidentified bodies of protesters. Authorities cracked down again on a fresh wave of demonstrations in early August, killing 90 more people. But that carnage was the final straw. The public had had enough, and Bangladeshis flooded the streets, forcing Hasina’s hasty evacuation via military helicopter to India.

‘The Most Humiliating Defeat of the War’: Myanmar Resistance Captures Key Junta Base

David Rising

Myanmar’s military regime acknowledged Monday it had lost communications with the commanders of a strategically important army headquarters in the northeast, adding credence to a militia group’s claims it had captured the base.

The fall of the army’s Northeast Command in Lashio city would be the biggest in a series of setbacks for Myanmar’s military government this year, as an offensive by an alliance of powerful militias of ethnic minority groups makes broad gains in the civil war.

“The regime’s loss of the Northeast Command is the most humiliating defeat of the war,” said Morgan Michaels, a Singapore-based analyst with the International Institute of Strategic Studies who runs its Myanmar Conflict Map project. “Without Lashio, it will be extremely difficult for the regime to hold onto its final outposts in the theater.”

Those include the key Muse border crossing with China, as well as the strategic crossroads at Kyaukme, and it opens the way for attacks on Pyin Oo Lwin and Myanmar’s second-largest city, Mandalay, Michaels said.

Bangladesh Has a Difficult Road Ahead

Salil Tripathi

Until she fled Bangladesh on Monday, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina governed as if she still had full legitimacy, even as students and protesters had been on the streets for days asking her to resign. The trigger for the demonstrations—civil service job quotas for Bangladeshi freedom fighters and their families—had become a distant memory. Collective anger about years of human rights abuses, corruption, and rigged elections had coalesced into an uprising.

The US Strengthens the Second Island Chain

Ronan Wordsworth

Much has been made of the U.S.’ efforts to contain China. Central to its strategy is the first island chain, a line of islands comprising the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan that naturally obstruct China’s access to the open seas. And now that Washington is increasingly confident in South Korea and Japan’s ability to manage the first chain, it is increasingly eager to focus on a second island chain, one to be managed by Australia. Australia has been a partner of Washington’s for years, and recent events, including the progression of the AUKUS security alignment, show that it will likely become a recipient of massive amounts of U.S. defense spending in the coming years.

Alliance Building

The first island chain acts as the vanguard in the U.S.-led security alliance in the region. As such, it has to be able to withstand and prevent a direct attack from mainland China. This is why Washington has worked extensively over the past two years to strengthen its strategic alliances in the Indo-Pacific region, signing trilateral security agreements with Japan and South Korea and with Japan and the Philippines. (The Philippines was once more open to balancing against China and the U.S., but having bristled under Chinese coercion in the South China Sea, it has shown a greater willingness to work with the U.S.)

China’s War on the Dalai Lama Stokes Tension with India and Russia

Antonio Graceffo

On July 6th, the 89th birthday of His Holiness the Dalai Lama was celebrated in Dharamshala, India and observed by the Tibetan diaspora and supporters worldwide. Beyond marking a milestone for the leader of the Tibetan Buddhist faith, this event carries significant political implications for China amid great power competition. Ironically, the one place his birthday was not celebrated was in his native Tibet, where the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) forbids citizens from having any contact with their spiritual leader, who has lived in exile since 1959. Each year, as his birthday approaches, the repression in Tibet intensifies. This year, under the revised espionage law, police have been conducting random cellphone checks to ensure Tibetans have not downloaded his photo to pray for him.

The celebration underscores India’s support for Tibetan Buddhism over the wishes of the CCP. Despite India’s membership in BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Dalai Lama remains a major point of tension. The Indian ambassador even attended the first large-scale public celebration of the Dalai Lama’s birthday in Mongolia, where Tibetan Buddhism is the national religion. Since Mongolia won its independence from the Qing dynasty in 1921, China has tried to control the fiercely independent nation, and the Dalai Lama has been a sticking point. When the Dalai Lama visited Mongolia in November 2016, China responded with economic sanctions. Although Mongolia has avoided inviting His Holiness back to prevent reprisals, this celebration clearly demonstrates Mongolia’s refusal to submit to Chinese suzerainty.

Second attack targets Ain Al-Asad airbase within 24 hours

Amr Salem

An official in the Joint Operations Command in Iraq revealed on Tuesday that a second attack targeted Ain Al-Asad airbase, which houses US forces, in the western Iraqi governorate of Anbar.

The Iraqi security official told Al-Ain News that five missiles launched by armed groups supported by Iran targeted Ain Al-Asad airbase, where the international coalition forces led by the United States are stationed.

The Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) is expected to issue a statement denouncing these attacks in light of his government’s efforts to reach an agreement with the United States to set a timetable for the withdrawal of US forces from the country, according to the security source.

Earlier on Monday, an armed militia affiliated with the Kataeb Hezbollah targeted Ain Al-Asad airbase, the security official added.

Americans wounded in rocket attack on Iraq base

Andrew England & Felicia Schwartz

Seven US personnel were wounded in a rocket attack by Iran-backed militias on a base in Iraq, underscoring the threat to American forces amid intensified diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between Iran and Israel.

US defence secretary Lloyd Austin said the attack on Ain al-Assad, the main base hosting American forces in Iraq, “marked a dangerous escalation and demonstrated Iran’s destabilising role in the region”, according to a Pentagon readout of a call with his Israeli counterpart.

The assault on Monday was the first time in months that American troops in Iraq have been wounded, and followed a US strike against Iran-backed Iraqi militias last week.

Two rockets hit the air base at about 9pm local time on Monday, wounding five US soldiers and two American contractors, a US defence official said. Two were evacuated from Iraq for further treatment and all are in a stable condition, the official said.

Austin said a preliminary assessment showed that an Iranian-backed Shia militia was behind the attack, but the authorities were still working to identify the group.

Our Last Chance to Avoid War in the Middle East

Daniel L. Davis

Just before the 2020 Presidential elections, I published a book—The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America—in which I laid out the deterioration of American foreign policy and what the next administration needed to do to fix it. I argued that we were at risk of stumbling into any number of avoidable wars that could seriously harm our country. Now, four years later, we may be hours or minutes away from making that fateful plunge.

As I write these words, the United States is sending considerable combat power to the Middle East in advance of a retaliatory strike by Iran against Israel. The Israeli government is warning its citizens to prepare bomb shelters and be prepared for major power outages and limited drinking water for an extended period of time. Iran is reportedly in the final stages of preparing an attack.

The perverse irony of this potential clash of titans in the Middle East is that with deft diplomacy and sober thinking, the situation could have been solved below the threshold of combat long ago. Washington and Tel Aviv, however, seem stuck on repeating all the worst of the tendencies I identified in my 2020 book.

Israel’s Disaster Foretold

Gershom Gorenberg

On June 19, 1967, a week after the Six-Day War, the Israeli cabinet met to discuss the future of the territories that Israel had just occupied. One proposal was to permanently keep the West Bank and give its Palestinian residents local autonomy—but not citizenship. Justice Minister Yaakov Shimshon Shapira responded that in “an era of decolonization,” the idea was absurd.

“Every progressive person will rise against us and say … ‘They want to turn the West Bank, inhabited by Arabs, into a colony,’” he said.

Three months later, Israeli Prime Minister Levi Eshkol was preparing to green-light the first Israeli settlement in the West Bank. A top aide checked with the Foreign Ministry’s legal adviser, Theodor Meron, about the legality of the move.

“My conclusion,” Meron answered in a top-secret memo, “is that civilian settlement in the administered [occupied] territories contravenes explicit provisions of the Fourth Geneva Convention.” In other words, it was illegal.

Tactical Nuclear Weapons 'Already There' in Ukraine: Russian State TV

Isabel van Brugen

Aguest on Russian state TV said that he believes Ukraine has received tactical nuclear weapons from the West.

The unevidenced suggestion was floated by Alexei Mukhin, head of the Center for Political Information, a pro-Kremlin think tank, on state TV channel Russia-1. He said he believes that the delivery of U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had long lobbied for, indicates that tactical nuclear weapons have already been delivered to the war-torn country.

There is no evidence to suggest that the Ukrainians have been sent nuclear weapons by the West. Newsweek has contacted Ukraine's Foreign Ministry for comment by email.

Zelensky on Sunday confirmed the arrival of F-16s to his country, more than two years into the war launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Is the Bradley Fighting Vehicle Too Old? Tell That To Ukraine

Brent M. Eastwood

Bradley Fighting Vehicle Is a Certified Hit in Ukraine: Is the M2 Bradley Fighting Vehicle too old and ready for retirement?

Not if you’re part of the Ukrainian Army fighting the Russians in the Donbas Region.

Ukrainian soldiers are giving the Bradley Fighting Vehicle rave reviews for its firepower, speed, mobility, and surprising survivability against larger Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers.

The Ukrainians were quickly trained and up to speed on the Bradley, and the old battle wagon was making a difference against the Russians.

Ukrainian soldiers are using the Bradley not only to bring troops to the battlefield but also as a light tank. This has been a pleasant surprise for the U.S. Army and the Pentagon. It was conceivable that the Bradley would be too fragile and finicky for the rigors of the war in Ukraine.

Hezbollah pledges to respond alone or with allies to Israeli killing of commander

Timour Azhari and Maya Gebeily

The leader of Hezbollah on Tuesday pledged a "strong and effective" response to the killing of its military commander by Israel last week no matter the consequences and said Hezbollah would act either alone or with its regional allies.

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said Hezbollah would wait for the right moment to respond but did not hint at its form or timing.

All international attempts at persuading Hezbollah not to retaliate were futile, he said.

"Whatever the consequences, the resistance will not let these Israeli attacks pass by," he said in a televised address to mark one week since the assassination of Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut.

"Our response, God willing, will be strong, effective and impactful," he said in a speech that was met with cheers from members and supporters of Hezbollah who gathered to watch in Beirut's southern suburbs.

Israel’s assassinations: tactical successes, strategic blunders

Jonathan D. Strum

On July 30, Fuad Shukr, a top deputy to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, was targeted and killed in an Israeli bombing attack in South Beirut.

Shukr was targeted as the person responsible for the July 27 rocket attack on an Israeli military base in the Golan Heights, where an Iranian-made Falaq-1 rocket with a warhead of over 110 pounds of explosives hit a soccer field that morning in the Druze town of Majdal Shams, killing 12 children and injuring 50 others.

Hours later, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated by a bomb in his government-provided guest house in Tehran while attending the inauguration of the new Iranian president.

Shukr was Hezbollah’s top military commander, labeled by the U.S. as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist.” He was tied directly to the Beirut Marine barracks bombing in 1983 (an underreported fact), which killed 241 U.S. Marines and 56 French troops. Haniyeh was the long-time political leader of Hamas and, for the past eight years, was based in Qatar.

The British Establishment Refused to Talk About Migration. Now We’re Paying the Price.

Nadhim Zahawi

Of all the heartbreaking moments from this past week, from the murder of three girls not much younger than my own daughter, to the violence and fear on our streets, there is one thought that I keep returning to: how avoidable it all might have been.

The warning signs have been present for years, but for every person who tried to tip-toe through the minefield of topics pertinent to this disorder—society, culture, religion, disenfranchisement, racism, the speed of change, feelings of powerlessness—there were ten more who wanted to bury their heads in the sand.

Even I, a brown man born in a Muslim country, feel the need to caveat what I say, and hide behind facets of my identity such as the color of my skin (facets that I largely consider unimportant) just to pass comment on things of importance to my country. The alternative is to be accused of insufficiently condemning the obviously condemnable by those who want to weaponize these issues for their own ends.

Seventy Miles in Hell

Caitlin Dickerson

They gathered in the predawn dark. Bleary-eyed children squirmed. Adults lugging babies and backpacks stood at attention as someone working under the command of Colombia’s most powerful drug cartel, the Gulf Clan, shouted instructions into a megaphone, temporarily drowning out the cacophony of the jungle’s birds and insects: Make sure everyone has enough to eat and drink, especially the children. Blue or green fabric tied to trees means keep walking. Red means you’re going the wrong way and should turn around.

Next came prayers for the group’s safety and survival: “Lord, take care of every step that we take.” When the sun peeked above the horizon, they were off.

More than 600 people were in the crowd that plunged into the jungle that morning, beginning a roughly 70-mile journey from northern Colombia into southern Panama. That made it a slow day by local standards. They came from Haiti, Ethiopia, India, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, and Venezuela, headed north across the only strip of land that connects South America to Central America.

The Ukraine War Proves Russia’s Air Force Still Packs a Punch

Robert Farley

Russia’s Air Force, also known as the Russian Aerospace Forces, has had a mixed record in Ukraine. Castigated in the early months of the war for failing to achieve air superiority and failing to inflict decisive damage on defending Ukrainian ground forces, Russian air assets contributed mightily to the successful Russian defense against Ukraine’s summer 2023 offensive and have made a major contribution to the success of Russian ground advances over the past several months.

Having avoided the dreadful losses suffered by naval and land units, the Aerospace Forces may well emerge from the war with their reputation and force structure mostly intact.

Ukraine vs. Russia’s Air Force

Russian air forces have not suffered nearly the same level of attrition in the Ukraine War as land or naval forces.

A US estimate of Russian aerial strength as of April 2024 estimated that Russia had lost some 10% of its total aviation strength in the first twenty-six months of the war, amounting to an expensive inconvenience but not an operational crisis. Most of these aircraft have been lost to Ukrainian surface-to-air missile systems, although some have suffered from deep drone and missile strikes against Russian bases.

Backgrounder: NATO’s Pivot toward Asia

Antonio Graceffo

Throughout the Cold War, NATO focused on containing the threat of Soviet expansion from the USSR. After the Cold War ended, NATO’s relevance was widely questioned in the absence of this primary adversary. In recent years, China has emerged as a significant threat to the US-led international order. Consequently, starting with the Trump administration, the United States has pivoted its defense priorities toward Asia. This shift was reflected in the 2017 National Security Strategy, the 2018 National Defense Strategy, and the 2019 Indo-Pacific Strategy, all of which prioritized countering China. The trend has continued under President Biden, with China identified as the principal threat in the 2022 National Defense Strategy.

Europe has consistently sought to avoid being drawn into this unfolding US-China rivalry, aiming to maintain trade relations with both sides. This has left the United States bearing the bulk of the defense costs for countering China, while also providing roughly 70% of NATO’s defense funding. At one point, the Trump administration was even considering withdrawing Washington from its defense commitments to Europe in order to focus on the more pressing threat of China in the Pacific.

Israel on the Dangerous Path to International Isolation'

Pnina Sharvit Baruch

The International Campaign Against Israel

In the aftermath of the brutal attack by Hamas on October 7, Israel initially garnered widespread support from the international community, which recognized its right to self-defense. However, even at this early stage, certain elements within the UN found it hard to condemn Hamas and even justified its actions. As the conflict escalated, resulting in extensive destruction and suffering in the Gaza Strip and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis, this support shifted to sharp criticism and severe accusations against Israel.

During this critical period, years of strategic efforts by leaders of the international campaign against Israel came to fruition. By aligning with progressive factions, they successfully infiltrated influential Western institutions, including UN human rights bodies, other humanitarian organizations, academia, and the media, spreading anti-Israel narratives. These narratives have been amplified through social media, reaching global audiences.

The Already Stretched U.S. Military Prepares to Defend Israel

Jack Detsch

First, the U.S. Defense Department redirected the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group from the Pacific to the Middle East, relieving the USS Theodore Roosevelt. Then, the Pentagon sent more ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers to the region. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered an additional fighter squadron to the Middle East and more land-based ballistic missile defense.

Defense Department incentives need to change if the Mavericks are to survive

Mike Mullen

The Department of Defense (DoD) faces a critical challenge: Broken incentive structures prevent the swift adoption of new technologies. Immediate reform is needed. The right incentives drive talent to take risks, think critically, and quickly develop capabilities for the warfighter. Without a cultural shift in how the DoD incentivizes innovation, national security is at risk, and adversaries will advance and surpass the United States.

During the Cold War, bold risk-taking and rapid research were key to national security. While today’s challenge demands a similar commitment to pushing boundaries, fostering creativity, and rapidly advancing technology, the department is instead exasperated by hesitance, cumbersome processes, misaligned rewards, lack of top cover, and maintenance of the status quo. Our adversaries are quickly enhancing their capabilities and closing the technological gap. To maintain our position as the world’s strongest fighting force, we must overhaul our incentive structure.

This urgency is underscored in a recent report by the Defense Innovation Board (DIB) revealing several critical findings that highlight the need for comprehensive overhaul of how the DoD approaches innovation.

Cyber Diplomacy: Navigating The Digital Frontier Of International Relations – Analysis

Simon Hutagalung

The emergence of technology has greatly transformed international relations in an era where speed, complexity, and interconnectedness define diplomacy. At the heart of this transformation lies cyber diplomacy, a multifaceted phenomenon that integrates digital tools and platforms into the practice of foreign policy and international relations.

This essay aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of cyber diplomacy by examining its historical evolution, conceptual foundations, economic, political, and security implications, as well as its social and ethical dimensions. Through the examination of key case studies and an evaluation of prospects, the essay seeks to offer a nuanced understanding of the pivotal role of cyber diplomacy in shaping the global contemporary order.

The integration of technology into diplomacy has significantly expanded the scope and reach of diplomatic practices throughout history. Each technological advancement, from the telegraph to the internet, has progressively enhanced the capabilities of diplomacy. The concept of cyber diplomacy, although relatively new, can be traced back to the early days of the internet when digital communications began to complement traditional diplomatic channels.

Let’s start treating cyber security like it matters

Bruce Schneier and Tarah Wheeler

When an airplane crashes, impartial investigatory bodies leap into action, empowered by law to unearth what happened and why. But there is no such body to investigate CrowdStrike’s faulty update that recently ensnarled banks, airlines, and emergency services to the tune of billions of dollars. We need one.

To be sure, there is the White House’s Cyber Safety Review Board. On March 20, the CSRB released a report into last summer’s intrusion by a Chinese hacking group into Microsoft’s cloud environment, where it compromised the U.S. Department of Commerce, State Department, congressional offices, and several associated companies. But the board’s report—well-researched and containing some good and actionable recommendations—shows how it suffers from its lack of subpoena power and its political unwillingness to generalize from specific incidents to the broader industry.

Some background: The CSRB was established in 2021, by executive order, to provide an independent analysis and assessment of significant cyberattacks against the United States. The goal was to pierce the corporate confidentiality that often surrounds such attacks and to provide the entire security community with lessons and recommendations. The more we all know about what happened, the better we can all do next time. It's the same thinking that led to the formation of the National Transportation Safety Board, but for cyberattacks and not plane crashes.

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