Indian Strategic Studies: 07/28/24

28 July 2024

Can the US ‘Resolve Tibet Act’ Make a Difference?

Marie Miller and Tenzin Lhadon

It’s a narrative that’s all too familiar: Nationalist world leaders claiming historical sovereignty over territory, weaponizing revised history to justify invasion.

In 1950, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) acted upon its self-declared inheritance over Tibet, imposing a treaty that officially annexed the region. Following the 1959 Tibetan uprising against the CCP, and the escape of the Dalai Lama to Dharamshala, India, the iron fist only tightened. The Tibetan government-in-exile estimates that in the 20 years following the uprising, 1.2 million Tibetans died as a result of China’s policies, while still many more languished in prison.

Historic revisionism is the basis for the same predatory rhetoric Xi Jinping’s government uses today as it builds entire villages in Bhutan, claims ownership over northern India’s Arunachal Pradesh as “South Tibet,” and threatens Taiwan with militaristic drills and mock missile strikes. Revisionist history is laden with propagandistic undertones – and it’s a threat to self-determination, culture, and human life.

Today, with the ink of President Joe Biden’s signature drying on the Resolve Tibet Act of 2024, the United States has an opportunity to explicitly – and officially – set the narrative straight. His signature marks a testy politicization of the Tibetan cause by the executive branch. As this law is implemented, however, the U.S. should be prepared to offer concrete support to the Tibetan community, which is already beginning to feel the CCP’s retaliatory crackdown.

Tajikistan and the Taliban

Giorgio Cafiero & Eldar Mamadov

Since August 2021, all Central Asian republics have been, in one way or another, contending with Taliban rule in Afghanistan. While treading cautiously, each Central Asian government faces a host of major challenges related to the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA).

While no Central Asian state has formally recognized the Taliban, all Central Asian republics have, to varying degrees, engaged the IEA and unofficially recognized Afghanistan’s only de facto government. Tajikistan sits on the far end of this spectrum as the most firmly anti-Taliban Central Asian country.

President Emomali Rahmon’s government believes that the IEA constitutes an illegitimate regime. Tajikistan sees the IEA as a grave threat to its national interests and regional security. There appears to be no reason to expect any thaw in Dushanbe’s relationship with the Taliban.

The former Soviet republic has vowed not to formally recognize the Taliban because it was “formed through oppression.” Tajikistan is the Central Asian republic that has given the greatest support to Afghanistan’s anti-Taliban forces, as was also the case during the Taliban’s first time in power (1996–2001) with the Northern Alliance. Tajikistan has hosted the National Resistance Front (NFR), a military alliance comprised of former Northern Alliance members who remain loyal to the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. Mohammad Zahir Aghbar, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan’s ambassador to Tajikistan, still runs the Afghan embassy in Dushanbe. This diplomatic mission in Tajikistan has been a focal point of anti-Taliban activity.

From Eurofighter To F-16 — How China Uses Pakistan To Gain ‘Critical Info’ On Western Aircraft Using Military Drills

Shubhangi Palve

This collaboration has stirred significant concern in Washington, particularly regarding the potential for China to gather intelligence on Western aircraft through these drills.

In a recent development, satellite images have revealed that China has been conducting simulated strikes on US aircraft and aircraft carriers in the deserts of Xinjiang.

The images, dated May 29, depict a model aircraft carrier and over 20 replicas of jets resembling US stealth fighters. Military experts have indicated that Chinese PLA Air Force pilots are reportedly conducting air strike drills on replicas of American F-35 and F-22 aircraft.

UAE-China Military Drills: Falcon Shield

China’s Ministry of National Defense announced that the joint air exercise with the UAE is again being held in Xinjiang province.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based think tank, notes that while the ministry did not specify the exact air base, satellite imagery suggests that Hotan Airport in Xinjiang is the exercise’s location. This site also hosted the event in 2023.

Here’s why China was largely unaffected by Friday’s IT outage

Evelyn Cheng

While businesses in the U.S. and Europe woke up Friday to a global IT outage that disrupted airports and hotels, China went into its weekend largely unaffected.

The issue traced back to a software update by Texas-based cybersecurity company CrowdStrike, which generates more than half its revenue from the United States. The company’s tech is used by many of the world’s largest banks, health-care and energy companies.

“The impact of Friday’s CrowdStrike incident on China was very small, with almost no impact on domestic public life,” Gao Feng, senior research director at Gartner, said in Chinese, translated by CNBC. “Only some foreign companies in China were affected.”

“The main reason why is that local Chinese companies basically do not use CrowdStrike products, so they are not affected,” Gao said. “CrowdStrike’s customers are primarily concentrated in Europe and the United States.”

Anecdotally, ride-hailing, e-commerce and other internet-connected systems in China were all running smoothly on Friday. Chinese state media also said Friday evening that international flights at Beijing’s two airports were running normally, and that Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines had not been affected by large-scale technical system failures.

China’s third plenum sees Communist Party double down on economic, tech, military power

Wendy Wu, William Zheng and Victoria Bela

China will focus on boosting its economic, technological and defence capabilities to tackle growing conflicts with the US-led West, the full text of decisions from a key party conclave has revealed.

The more than 22,000-word resolution document lists a wide range of measures for the next five years approved by the Central Committee of the ruling Communist Party, which met for its key third plenum last week.

The measures aim to strengthen China’s economic resilience, deepen the tech talent pool and narrow the rural-urban gap as part of efforts to find new growth engines and address demographic challenges, according to the document released by state news agency Xinhua on Sunday.

National security also gets greater prominence, with pledges to keep key industrial chains safe and boost strategic military deterrence.

The goals have to be accomplished by 2029, the 80th anniversary of the People’s Republic. The coming five years will also be a decisive period for the party’s target of building a modern socialist China by 2035, giving it a strong position in the great power rivalry with the United States and other geopolitical hostilities.

Xi Sets Out 2029 Vision At The Third Plenum

Willy Wo-Lap Lam

Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General-Secretary President Xi Jinping has consolidated his status as the anchor of efforts to attain a “high-standard socialist market economy in all respects (全面建成高水平社会主义市场经济体制)” by the year 2029 (People’s Daily, July 19; Xinhua, July 18).The enshrining of 2029 as the target for achieving these goals suggests that the Third Plenary Session of the CCP’s 20th Central Committee, which concluded on Thursday, July 18, has confirmed Xi Jinping Thought as the guiding light of the Party and nation. Likewise, the plenum guaranteed that the 71-year-old paramount leader will remain in power as CCP General Secretary and commander-in-chief for a fourth five-year term from 2027 to 2032 (Deutche Welle Chinese, July 19; rfi, July 18). Meanwhile, a thorough-going purge is being undertaken in both civilian and military sectors. While recent rumors that Xi’s wife Peng Liyuan (彭丽媛)—recently made a member of the disciplinary and assessment office of the Central Military Commission—would be elevated to the Politburo failed to materialize, the commander-in-chief’s hold over the top brass still seems to be as strong as ever (China Brief, May 24).

A Xinhua piece eulogizing “master reformer Xi Jinping (改革家习近平)” was mysteriously pulled from official media on the eve of the conclave. Beyond this, however, no voices challenging Xi’s position have been heard from rival cliques such as the Shanghai Gang, the Communist Youth League, or so-called second-generation “princelings” (rfi, July 20; CDT, July 18; rfa, July 17). Yet apparently due to Xi’s desire to appease all Party factions, the authorities have used careful and somewhat neutral language to describe his call for “high-quality development” and deepening “reform and opening up.” The relatively uncontroversial measures prescribed by the plenum and other Party and government organs seem unlikely to reinvigorate the PRC economy, which grew a disappointing 4.7 percent in the second quarter of this year (VOA, July 20, BBC Chinese, July 16).

No First Use Can Still Help to Reduce US-China Nuclear Risks

Adam MOUNT

INTRODUCTION

China’s rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal, and the US response to it, will shape strategic stability for the remainder of the century. Much of the debate in the United States on “tripolar deterrence” or the “two peer problem” has concentrated on the strategic level, evaluating how the increase in China’s arsenal affects the quantitative and qualitative requirements for the US strategic arsenal (Center for Global Security Research Study Group 2023; Fravel, Hiim and Trøan 2023; Glaser, Acton and Fetter 2023; Mount 2023). At the same time, the risks of limited nuclear use in the context of a US-China theater conflict are also in flux.

One way to understand the evolving risks of nuclear escalation in a US-China conflict is through the ongoing debate on no first use. While Beijing has not altered its long-standing policy on no first use, dramatic shifts in its strategic force structure raise questions about whether China is also reconsidering its historical position that nuclear weapons cannot help to manage escalation in a limited conflict. Though the United States remains unlikely to adopt a no first use statement, ongoing debates on nuclear declaratory policy will affect how US leaders understand their options in a crisis.

China Is Exporting Its AI Surveillance State

MARTIN BERAJA, DAVID Y. YANG, and NOAM YUCHTMAN

US President George H.W. Bush once remarked that, “No nation on Earth has discovered a way to import the world’s goods and services while stopping foreign ideas at the border.” In an age when democracies dominated the technological frontier, the ideas Bush had in mind were those associated with America’s own model of political economy.

But now that China has become a leading innovator in artificial intelligence, might the same economic integration move countries in the opposite direction? This question is particularly relevant to developing countries, since many are not only institutionally fragile, but also increasingly connected to China via trade, foreign aid, loans, and investments.

While AI has been hailed as the basis for a “fourth industrial revolution,” it is also bringing many new challenges to the fore. AI technologies have the potential to drive economic growth in the coming years, but also to undermine democracies, aid autocrats’ pursuit of social control, and empower “surveillance capitalists” who manipulate our behavior and profit from the data trails we leave online.

China and the U.S. Are Careening Toward a South China Sea Crisis

Craig Singleton

Last November’s summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Woodside, California, was hailed as a harbinger of progress in stabilizing a superpower relationship that was spiraling toward conflict. Yet more than eight months later, it’s evident that leader-to-leader engagement merely extended the illusion of constructive bilateral engagement—reinforcing, rather than reversing, the declining trend lines in the U.S.-China relationship.

The CCP’s third plenum: economic reforms, strategic continuity

Meia Nouwens

Following an unprecedented nine-month delay, last week the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) finally held its third plenum – a meeting of Central Committee members to outline China’s long-term economic and social policies. It subsequently published an initial brief communiqué on 18 July, with a decision document providing greater detail on 21 July. In the lead-up to the event, the Chinese media and debate within China’s expert and academic communities focused on the need for reforms in the face of considerable domestic and external challenges. These include a slowing economy, weak consumption, unequal wealth distribution and a need to increase technological innovation and attract foreign investment following a three-year nosedive. (Following the expansion of anti-spying laws and notable raids on consulting companies, as well as US sanctions limiting investment in China’s technological sector, foreign companies have grown to perceive operating in China as carrying greater political risk.) Unsurprisingly, China’s leaders announced in the communiqué that ‘we must purposefully give more prominence to reform’ and adopted ‘The Resolution of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) on Further Deepening Reform Comprehensively to Advance Chinese Modernization’.

Structural reforms and foreign investment

In order to transform the country into a ‘modern socialist economy’ driven by high-quality development, the plenum’s communiqué outlined structural reforms to the economy and plans to attract foreign investment. However, the CCP’s definition of ‘reform’ is not the same as the West’s; articles in the People’s Daily in the lead-up to the third plenum highlighted previous statements made by President Xi Jinping that reform does not mean changing direction and does not mean China will take on a Western governance model. As such, the reforms discussed in the communiqué do not represent huge strategic shifts but rather technical adjustments within a party-state system – a system in which the CCP’s (and in particular Xi’s) centrality and interests remain of key importance.

China’s Leaders Just Held a Third Plenum. So What

Nick Frisch

On July 18, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) concluded the Third Plenum of its 20th Party Congress. Held in a secured military conference hotel on the western outskirts of Beijing, proceedings closed with a ritual appearance by top leader Xi Jinping. Third Plenums, so called because they’re the third meeting of the party’s five-year cycles, cover economic policy; outcomes are scrutinized by cadres and global businesses alike.

Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping is growing, says UN envoy to Yemen

Jonathan Landay

Recent developments in the Red Sea and surrounding waterways suggest that the threat to international shipping from Yemen's Houthis is growing, U.N. Special Envoy to Yemen Hans Grundberg told the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday.

In a briefing on the situation in Yemen, Grundberg warned of a real danger of a devastating regional escalation following new Houthi attacks on commercial shipping and the first Israeli air strikes on Yemen in retaliation for Houthi drone and missile attacks on Israel.

"I remain deeply concerned about the continued targeting of international navigation in the Red Sea and its surrounding waterways," Grundberg said. "Recent developments suggest that the threat against international shipping is increasing in scope and precision."

The Houthi attacks on Israel and July 20 Israeli retaliatory strikes on Yemen's port of Hodeidah and its oil and power facilities represent "a new and dangerous level" of violence, he said.

Commercial ships have been sunk and damaged, disrupting trade, civilians have died, the Houthis still detain the crew of the Galaxy Leader, a cargo ship they hijacked in November, and the United States and Britain continue airstrikes on military targets in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, he said.

From the archive: Europe Without America

Benjamin Rhode

The stench of battle and bloodshed wafting over most of Europe’s history is common to the human experience across our planet. Europe, however, differs from other strategically significant continents in several important ways. The most recent of these distinctions lies in the nature of the security order established there after the Second World War and expanded after the Cold War, founded on the power and engagement of the United States, which now faces potentially mortal challenges. To appreciate this order’s full significance, however, it is worthwhile considering it in the context of other distinctive aspects of Europe’s history.

Perhaps one of the most notable of these is that, since the fall of the Roman Empire in the West in 476 CE, no overwhelming hegemon has dominated Western and Central Europe for a sustained period, and certainly has not controlled most of its territory. In 1453, almost 1,000 years after Rome’s fall, the Ottoman Empire took Constantinople and the last remnants of what had been the Eastern Roman Empire. In the intervening millennium, while there had been pretenders to the imperial legacy in Western and Central Europe, such as the misnamed Holy Roman Empire, none had truly established itself as the inheritor of Rome’s crown. Europe had largely represented a backwater in economic, technological and strategic terms, and its constituent states appeared poor relations to the great empires in East and South Asia and the Middle East.

How To Strike Back Against The Houthis

Ilan Berman

On Sunday, Israel carried out a long-range aerial attack on the Yemeni port of Hodeidah. The air strike, a retaliation for a drone incursion into Tel Aviv a day earlier that left one dead, killed at least six and wounded scores more in a signal that Israel was fully prepared to hit back at the country’s Houthi rebels. But the Israeli retaliation also did something more: it highlighted a way to turn the tables on what has, until now, been an enormously successful campaign of economic blackmail along one of the world’s most vital waterways.

Such an approach has been sorely lacking so far. Since mid-November, the Houthis have emerged as a major international menace, holding maritime commerce in the Red Sea at risk through repeated missile and drone strikes. Ostensibly, the ongoing campaign is a response to Israel’s continuing military offensive in the Gaza Strip. But through it, the Yemeni militants – as well as their main benefactor, Iran – have gained significant leverage over the international community by holding global trade at risk.

The consequences have been nothing short of ruinous. Most immediately, the Houthi campaign has dented Egypt’s already-rickety economy, robbing the country of more than $2 billion in revenue by discouraging transit through the Suez Canal. International shippers, meanwhile, have redirected their vessels away from the vital Bab al-Mandab waterway, through which more than 10% of world commerce passes. The knock-on effects are being felt in rising world prices on everything from oil to foodstuffs.

‘I know we will win – and how’: Ukraine’s top general on turning the

Luke Harding

Sitting on a stack of ammunition crates at a secret military base, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi was tight-lipped about when Ukraine will receive a long-awaited delivery of F-16 fighter jets. The Dutch and other allies have said they will arrive soon. This week? Or maybe August? “I know. But I can’t tell you about it, unfortunately,” he said, with an apologetic grin, as gulls squawked nearby.

Syrskyi is Ukraine’s new commander-in-chief. His unenviable task is to defeat a bigger Russian army. Two and half years into Vladimir Putin’s full-scale onslaught, he acknowledges the Russians are much better resourced. They have more of everything: tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, soldiers. Their original 100,000-strong invasion force has grown to 520,000, he said, with a goal by the end of 2024 of 690,000 men. The figures for Ukraine have not been made public.

“When it comes to equipment, there is a ratio of 1:2 or 1:3 in their favour,” he said. Since 2022 the number of Russian tanks has “doubled” – from 1,700 to 3,500. Artillery systems have tripled, and armoured personnel carriers gone up from 4,500 to 8,900. “The enemy has a significant advantage in force and resources,” Syrskyi said. “Therefore, for us, the issue of supply, the issue of quality, is really at the forefront.”

Ending the War in Ukraine: A Potential Roadmap for Peace

Zalmay Khalilzad

The stated aim of the Biden administration’s policy on Ukraine has been to achieve the defeat of Russia, and to this end, it provided assistance to Ukraine. It did not undertake any serious diplomatic initiative with Russia and Ukraine on a negotiated settlement. Vice President Harris may, of course, adjust that policy if the Democratic Party nominates her and wins the elections in November. As of now, it appears that she will likely continue Biden’s policy.

If the Trump-Vance ticket prevails, there is likely to be a push for serious negotiations toward a diplomatic settlement. The time between now and the election, as well as the transition to the new administration, should be utilized to begin discussing potential settlement options and modalities, as well as their prospects and implications for Ukraine, Russia, Europe, and the United States.

A Trump administration may become both a catalyst and an opportunity for a Ukraine settlement. Both President Trump and Senator Vance have consistently called for such a settlement and have expressed doubts that U.S. and European assistance to Ukraine and economic pressure on Russia can realistically bring about Ukraine’s victory in the war. Both have been concerned about the level of U.S. assistance and have argued that European powers should carry the predominant burden since the conflict is “in their neighborhood.”

It’s Time to Rethink the U.S.-Israel ‘Special Relationship’

JON HOFFMAN

As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a joint session of Congress, Washington must finally face reality: its emphatic embrace of Israel’s war in Gaza is not advancing U.S. interests or promoting regional stability—to say nothing of the immense human toll.

In fact, it is doing the opposite. So long as Washington refuses to change course, the U.S. will continue to confront major problems that are the product of its own policies.

Netanyahu remains wedded to the idea that Israel’s army can achieve his goal of eradicating Hamas in Gaza. But as IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari recently admitted, “anyone who thinks we can eliminate Hamas is wrong.” In the military realm, the group maintains operational capacity, and continues to fight in areas of Gaza where Israel previously claimed Hamas had been eliminated. U.S. intelligence estimates that only 30-35% of Hamas’ military wing have been killed since Oct. 7, while claiming it has recruited thousands of new volunteers over the course of the war. Hamas also remains deeply embedded in the political fabric of Gaza.

Israel can degrade Hamas’ capabilities and kill their leaders, but without a route toward a credible political solution, Palestinian militancy will persist. Unfortunately, there is no sign of such a solution. Netanyahu’s apparent plan moving forward is the indefinite military occupation of the enclave, and Israel’s parliament recently passed a motion—with overwhelming support—rejecting Palestinian statehood, even if it is part of a negotiated settlement with Israel. This is a recipe for endless violence.

The US Navy risks outsourcing control of its drones - Opinion

Josh Tallis

Thanks to programs like Replicator, and incubators like the Defense Innovation Unit and the Disruptive Capabilities Office, the Navy is on the precipice of widespread adoption of uncrewed systems.

These systems bring with them the prospect of new technologies, new operational designs and, potentially, new business models. A key question for the Navy is how to signal to industry that the service has a thoughtful plan for the vast private sector investments needed to enable this transition, not to stifle innovation, but to avoid a feeding frenzy that the Navy cannot channel to best effect. One of the clearest needs for guardrails comes with how the Navy will execute command and control (C2) over the data, platforms, and networks that will underpin an ever larger and more lethal robotic fleet. As industry sees dollar signs at the dawn of robotic warfare, the Navy must consider whether it wants C2 to become a commercial offering before it finds itself having done so by accident. It may well be on that path already.

Three examples, from the sea to space, illustrate the Navy’s experimentation with partially privatized command and control, with attendant benefits and risks. Furthest downstream, Saildrone has taken a pole position in waterfront experimentation at FIFTH and FOURTH fleets in part because of a contractor-owned, contractor-operated model that enabled quicker and cheaper iteration. What the company’s website calls “mission-as-a-service” is effectively maritime domain awareness (MDA) for sale — the Navy buys the data stream coming off a vessel while the business operates the platform itself. This model has been invaluable as a route to fast testing on the water, though it has limitations, not least given companies’ likely opposition to sending company-owned vessels into high threat environments (e.g., the Red Sea or Black Sea today, maybe the South China Sea tomorrow). MDA for sale has helped the Navy move at speed, but it is unlikely to serve as an enduring model to achieve scale considering the Service is in the business of putting expensive platforms in harms way.

Kamala Harris, the Candidate

Doreen St. Félix

What was once known as the Biden Victory Fund raised more than two million dollars on Saturday, at an event held in the liberal haven of Provincetown, on Cape Cod. Maura Healey, the governor of Massachusetts, was there, as was the Secretary of Transportation, Pete Buttigieg; Jennifer Coolidge, Adrienne Warren, and Billy Porter served as pop-culture emissaries. The headliner was Vice-President Kamala Harris. A banner behind her said “vptown.” Back then, which is to say, seventy-two hours ago, she was still a surrogate for President Joe Biden, charged to convince a doubting population of the vitality of his Administration as the reigning head of state sat ill with covid in his vacation house in Rehoboth Beach, away from public view, in what was both a disaster and a mercy. “In this election, we know what candidate for President puts the American people first—our President, Joe Biden,” she said. People in the crowd were primed to see the event as an audition, even as Harris stayed on message. Afterward, an attendee posted online, “She can go the distance. I am proud of her now; I will be proud if she leads us as President of the United States.”

And now we have it. Harris has officially graduated from limbo. On Sunday afternoon, a day after the Cape Cod fund-raiser, Biden announced that he was ending his reëlection campaign. The announcement was remarkable for many reasons, the most basic being that it was accompanied by no images. There was no emergency press conference from Delaware, generating slapdash pomp. Biden wrote to the people, as if this were another century and he was a mariner gone on a long trip. (Albeit a mariner who knows how to post on social media.) His initial letter, which he published on X, said nothing about who might replace him. This sowed confusion; it seemed that Biden was not endorsing Harris. But a few minutes later, in a separate post, he clarified that he was supporting her candidacy. A couple hours later, Harris posted her own announcement that she was running.

The Return of the Military Draft

Raphael S. Cohen

After decades of becoming increasingly rare, the military draft is back in the debate.

Israel—which has long had mandatory conscription—is currently debating whether or not to lengthen its service for reservists as a result of its ongoing war against Hamas and Hezbollah, and it may soon expand the draft to the currently exempted ultra-Orthodox population following an Israeli Supreme Court ruling voiding the exemption last month. In May, Ukraine expanded its draft in order to replenish its forces as it continues to fight off the Russian invasion. Russia has similarly broadened its compulsory military service in response to mounting casualties in Ukraine. In the Baltic states, Latvia reintroduced the draft in 2023 following Russia's attack on Ukraine; Lithuania reintroduced it in 2015 in response to Russia's 2014 invasion of Ukraine; Estonia never abolished it. And halfway across the world, Taiwan recently lengthened its conscription period in response to increasingly menacing threats from China.

Even countries not directly on the front line are talking about reinstituting a draft or expanding an existing one. Back in January, British General Staff chief Patrick Saunders made political waves when he stated that the United Kingdom would need a “citizen army” should it find itself in a major war—a remark widely interpreted as calling for a reintroduction of the draft. In March, Denmark announced plans to expand its draft to include women and lengthen its time of service. And in May, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that he was “convinced that Germany needs some kind of military conscription.” The issue has even gotten some attention in the United States, as highlighted by recent congressional debates over whether young women should be required to register for selective service.

Pentagon poised to launch inaugural ‘challenge’ for Global Information Dominance Experiments

JON HARPER

The Defense Department will soon kick off a new “challenge” related to its Global Information Dominance Experiments (GIDE) as officials look to bring additional vendors into the mix, according to the officer overseeing the initiative.

The U.S. military has been conducting GIDE events for several years, but the pace has picked up recently as Pentagon leaders prioritize capabilities that will enable a warfighting construct known as Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control (CJADC2), which seeks to more seamlessly connect the data streams of the U.S. military services and key allies and partners for better and faster decision-making. The department’s Chief Digital and AI Office has been put in charge of the events, which also feature the department’s various combatant commands across the world.

There have been 11 numbered events in the GIDE series so far, which now occur every 90 days or so, and the department is gearing up for the twelfth iteration this fall.

“We are about to announce our inaugural GIDE Challenge in the next week or so. And then we’ll see how many [vendors] we can bring into the enterprise. But we’re really excited to start bringing some new entrants in and to be able to hopefully show them off in GIDE 12,” Col. Matt Strohmeyer, the Pentagon’s director for the Global Information Dominance Experiments, told DefenseScoop on the sidelines of the Air Defense Summit hosted by the Potomac Officers Club on Tuesday.

The battle to win the trillion-dollar cybercrime war

Paul Merrill

Cybercrime expert Foo Siang-tse is under no illusions as to the size of the challenge ahead for global businesses as the crypto-jackers, phishers and malware trojans refine their art and mount ever more brutal attacks to steal data, gain intelligence or paralyze entire networks.

“The threats are only moving in one direction,” Foo tells The CEO Magazine from the Singapore office of South-East Asia’s leading IT services provider NCS, where he heads up the Asia–Pacific cybersecurity division.

“They’re getting more sophisticated and more dangerous. The criminals are no different from what you see on The Godfather – they’re extremely well organized and very commercially driven.”

So driven, in fact, that cybercrime will be a US$10.5 trillion a year industry by 2025, according to Cybersecurity Ventures. That’s US$333,000 per second – triple its value in 2015 – and greater than the gross domestic products of Germany, Japan, India and the United Kingdom.

According to a survey by CyberEdge Group last year, 84.7 percent of organizations had been victims of a successful attack during the previous 12 months, despite spiralling IT security budgets.

CrowdStrike Is Too Big to Fail - OPINION

Jonathan Welburn

If you couldn’t use your laptop last week, you weren’t alone. A computer system disruption swept the globe on Friday, grounding flights, stopping trains, and bringing businesses to a halt. Worse, the outage was traced to a single security update, underscoring the risks of global interconnectivity, particularly among firms critical to public safety, economic stability and national security.

The blackout came courtesy of CrowdStrike, a cybersecurity company that reportedly serves some 29,000 customers. They weren’t the only ones affected; when a CrowdStrike software update went awry, the computers and tablets of millions of people using Microsoft Windows went kaput.

This isn’t the first time we’ve experienced a domino effect like this. The enduring lesson of the 2008 banking crisis was that failures in one corner of a market can cascade through the entire economy. That’s why Congress deemed certain banks “too big to fail” and subsequently adopted new regulations and oversight in the financial system. The government has identified “global systemically important banks,” which it consistently monitors through stress tests.

THE ART OF DOCUMENTING WAR

Benjamin Van Horrick

“The invaders drive north through the Iraqi desert in a Humvee, eating candy, dipping tobacco and singing songs. Oil fires burn on the horizon, set during skirmishes between American forces and pockets of die-hard Iraqi soldiers.”

These are the lead sentences in Evan Wright’s series, “The Killer Elite,” documenting the Marine Corps’s 1st Reconnaissance Battalion as it barreled north toward Baghdad during the 2003 US invasion. The three-part series did not appear in Time or Newsweek, but rather Rolling Stone. The tone and tenor of the series brought the war from Baghdad to the home front with a combination of grit and honesty. Sean Woods, Wright’s editor at Rolling Stone, recently remarked that working on these pieces “was like writing the first draft of history.” That first draft of history still hits home just as strongly as Generation Kill, the book he subsequently wrote based on his embedded experience. With the news of Wright’s death by suicide this month, readers should take a few moments to reflect on his embedded reporting and how he combined his sparse prose and his unfettered access to create an enduring, frantic, manic, and humane account of young men at war.

Wright’s early life and career trajectory did not foretell his success of as a war correspondent. However, in retrospect his turbulent youth and immersion in American subcultures proved invaluable. During a 2013 episode of the Longform podcast Wright recounted his experience at a reform school, which he termed “Abu Ghraib for kids.” The experience left Wright with a deep distrust of social groups and a suspicion of the cultural establishment. When he began writing professionally, he did so on society’s cultural periphery, working first at Hustler magazine reviewing pornographic films. Later, he wrote several long-form pieces profiling American subcultures—neo-Nazis, war profiteers, skateboarders, sex workers—work that would form the basis of his essay anthology Hella Nation.

JUST IN: Directed Energy, Space Key to Future Missile Defense

Kara Thompson

Developing innovative technology is key to defending against adversaries, and directed energy and space are two areas the United States must continue investing in to defeat future threats, the leader of Army Space and Missile Defense Command said July 23.

We have entered an age where threats and adversaries can come at you from all angles, which the United States must be prepared for, said Lt. Gen. Sean Gainey, commanding general of Army Space and Missile Defense Command. It is also a landscape that is constantly changing, so adaptation and alterations are always being sought.

“The evolution of the threat, the pace is so fast,” Gainey said during an Association of the United States Army event. “We would introduce capability into a theater and as soon as it's introduced, we'll already see countermeasures being implemented. From an integrated air missile defense perspective, the modernization is going to be key.”

In response to this constantly evolving threat, industry is developing a variety of solutions for the future battlefield, such as directed energy weapons, which use electromagnetic energy to disrupt or damage a target, and non-kinetic capabilities such as cyber, electromagnetic spectrum or space systems, Gainey said.

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