Modi’s China Bind

Sushant Singh

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When Narendra Modi won a third term as India’s prime minister last month, he was congratulated by all the major global leaders. Except one. Xi Jinping, China’s president and general secretary of the Communist Party, did not send a congratulatory message to the Indian leader he has met more than 20 times in the past decade. In 2019, Xi was among the first to publicly congratulate Modi when he was reelected as prime minister. This year, Xi has conveyed his regards to Shehbaz Sharif in Pakistan and Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh when they became prime ministers. It was Chinese Premier Li Qiang who sent a brief congratulatory message to Modi a week later, further underscoring the absence of any felicitous missive from Xi.

On Gender Apartheid

Mélissa Cornet

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The question​ of women’s status has been central to the Taliban’s rule in Afghanistan, with more than eighty edicts curtailing their rights since the movement returned to power almost three years ago. The Taliban prohibits women from going to secondary school or university, from working in the public sector or for NGOs, from leaving home uncovered and unaccompanied, from visiting bathhouses, the gym, beauty salons, parks – the list goes on. Taliban policy, the UN special rapporteur on human rights in Afghanistan said on 18 June, is ‘motivated by and results in a profound rejection of the full humanity of women and girls’.

Afghan women have often been used as an emblem for a particular position: do you stand for modernity or for tradition? King Abdur Rahman Khan, who reigned from 1880 until 1901, improved the legal status of women, in opposition to conservative tribal law. King Amanullah Khan and his wife, Queen Soraya, who ruled between 1919 and 1929, campaigned against veil-wearing and polygamy, and encouraged girls’ education, as part of the wave of modernism also seen in Iran and Turkey at the time. But the brief reign of Habibullah II, between January and October 1929, saw most of Afghanistan’s gender equality laws abrogated. Later rulers were cautious about reform, worried about antagonising tribal leaders. Things changed slowly until the communists took over in 1978. After that, women wore short skirts, went to and taught at university, worked as doctors and nurses and became members of parliament. That period came to an end in 1992 when the mujahidin took over and the civil war began.

As Protests Erupt, a Rocky Start to Sheikh Hasina’s Fourth Consecutive Term

Saqlain Rizve

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Six months have passed since Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina won office for the fourth consecutive time through a controversial and non-competitive election. However, in contrast to the ease with which Hasina’s Awami League won re-election, her 2024-2029 term is not going smoothly thus far.

Currently, Bangladesh is witnessing a huge student-led protest over demands to abolish the quota system in government jobs. The protests started on July 1 and intensified on July 5, when the high court gave a verdict to keep the quota system in place. For over two weeks, students across all public universities have come into the streets to call for abolishing the quotas.

In a major escalation of violence on July 16, at least six people, including three students, were killed and several hundred injured in clashes between anti-quota protesters and pro-Awami League activists and police across the country

Update on the Armed Resistance in Myanmar’s Kachin State

Michael Martin

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The armed struggle against Myanmar’s military junta, the State Administrative Council (SAC), has been underway for more than three years. Different armed groups are waging the battle to topple the SAC in different regions of the country. In Myanmar’s northeastern Kachin State, the armed group leading the fight is the Kachin Independence Army, or KIA.

Brief History of the KIA

The KIA was formed in 1961 with the stated goal of establishing an autonomous sovereign state for the Kachin people. Over the following 30 years, the KIA and its affiliated political organization, the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), were able to secure control over portions of eastern Kachin State and establish an administrative capital in the city of Laiza. In 1994, the KIA and KIO signed a ceasefire agreement with Myanmar’s military junta, the State Law and Order Restoration Council. The ceasefire by and large held until 2010.

In 2010, Myanmar’s renamed military junta, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), issued an ultimatum to all the country’s ethnic armed organizations (EAOs)—accept transformation into a border guard force under the command of the military junta or face the resumption of armed conflict. The KIA and KIO rejected the ultimatum, and the SPDC broke the ceasefire in June 2011. Over the next 10 years, there was intermittent fighting between the KIA and the Myanmar military.

Philippines Push Back Over China’s South Sea Actions – Analysis

Rorie Fajardo-Jarilla

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As the Philippines’ leaders weigh the next steps in response to increasing tension with China in the disputed South China Sea, Manila appears to be belatedly reflecting public sentiment and calling for its claims to the resource-rich territory to be protected – and gaining political support for it.

In July 2016, the Philippines won a landmark decision by an arbitration court at The Hague which ruled that China had no territorial claims to the country’s waters. The court also said the continued presence of China’s vessels, island-building, patrolling, and other actions violated the sovereign rights of the Philippines.

Nonetheless, China has not abandoned its historical claim to neither these waters, nor others claimed by Vietnam, Malaysia, and Taiwan.

The latest confrontation erupted on June 17 during the Philippines’ resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal in the country’s waters in the South China Sea. This is where the Philippine Navy vessel BRP Sierra Madre is stationed, with marines manning the vessel symbolising the country’s last line of defence against increasing Chinese incursion. Since the grounded ship serves as a military station, the navy conducts routine resupply missions of food, fuel, and other necessities.

Can China and the US Find Common Ground on Military Use of AI?

Mathew Jie Sheng Yeo and Hyeyoon Jeong

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The day when artificial intelligence (AI) makes important military decisions is no longer in the distant future but is happening in the present reality. In the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, the AI-based targeting system “Lavender” has been used by the Israeli military to deadly effect. Utilizing AI, Lavender generates a kill list and identifies targets for the human operators to approve any strikes.

To be sure, while it can be argued that there is still human autonomy within Lavender, the human operator cannot maintain full control. Is the operator fully cognizant of the developments on the ground? Has the operator considered all options and possibilities? Was the decision influenced by automation bias? These questions are cause to doubt the full efficacy of human autonomy in a weapon system, much less in combat situations. Indeed, the Israeli operators, with only a mere 20 seconds to approve strikes, often acted as mere “rubber stamp,” relying heavily on AI’s identification with minimal review.

As evidenced by Lavender, issues such as the level of machine autonomy tolerated by humans, the risk involved, and reliability of the system present real challenges to a world that is increasingly embracing AI and the advent of new technology. Such events underscore the imperative of utilizing AI with utmost responsibility to prevent catastrophic outcomes and safeguard against potential risks.

Azerbaijan Expands Ties With China And Iran, Benefiting Moscow And Hurting West – Analysis

Paul Goble

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Two developments over the past couple of weeks reflect the reordering of geopolitics in the South Caucasus since Azerbaijan expelled Armenian forces from its territory. Both events are likely to intensify that trend, with consequences not only for the countries in the region but also for the international order.

At the Astana meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on July 4, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping signed a declaration of strategic partnership that calls for their two countries to work more closely economically, militarily, and strategically (TASS, July 3).

Additionally, on July 15, after more than a year of talks and on the heels of the election of the new Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformer and ethnic Azerbaijani, Iran allowed Azerbaijan to reopen its embassy in Tehran, a facility that had been shuttered since a terrorist attack in January 2023 (Vestikavkaza.ru, July 15). In bolstering relations with China and Iran, Baku is shifting the power balance in the South Caucasus, weakening the West’s position and potentially offering Moscow an opening to reassert its influence.

Tibetan Exile President Ups Ante In Nomenclature War – OpEd

Subir Bhaumik

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The Tibetan exile government says it will “strongly counter” Beijing, which has been renaming Tibetan places with Chinese names.

Penpa Tsering, Sikyong or President of the Central Tibetan Administration (Tibetan Parliament in Exile) or CTA, told Indian media that the “Sinification of Tibet must stop.”

“We will create a map of Tibet that will carry names of all places in Tibet in Tibet language. Chinese official position on Tibet underplays Tibet’s own rich and distinct history as it projects Tibet as part of China since the ancient era. We have to put an end to it,” Tsering said.

“Chinese renaming of Tibetan places will not erase Tibet’s unique culture and identity, because we have been an independent entity for much of our history. China forcibly occupied Tibet by sending its army and that historical fact is acknowledged by the world,” Tsering said.

He said China calls Tibet as Xizang.

“But now we are researching every name in Tibet and we will have a map of Tibet that will show all the original Tibetan names of all the places in Tibet,” he said.

Some Grand Strategy? – Third Plenum Concludes

ANUSHKA SAXENA

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A couple hours ago, the authorised Communiqué of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was published, and in this edition, I am doing a quick breakdown of some of the narrative discussed therein, and will eventually delve into points of interest in subsequent editions.

To begin with, the Communiqué declares that the Third Plenum reviewed and approved the “Decision of the Central Committee of the CPC on Further Comprehensively Deepening Reform and Advancing Chinese Modernization,” the document that was intended to be released with the conclusion of the Plenum.

Next, and last in order, was a discussion on dismissals and investigative cases. Given the slew of corruption-related cases that have been under deliberation specifically in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army in the past year, a mention of the cases under review was a must. And as per the Communiqué, “The plenary session reviewed and approved the Central Military Commission's investigation report on the serious violations of discipline and law by Li Shangfu, Li Yuchao, and Sun Jinming, and confirmed the disciplinary actions of expulsion from the Party for Li Shangfu, Li Yuchao, and Sun Jinming previously decided by the Political Bureau.” The announcements surrounding the dismissal of PLA Rocket force commander Li Yuchao and Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Sun Jinming from their respective posts have been around for a while. Li Shangfu’s dismissal for corruption came about at a Politburo meeting in June. Interestingly, the crimes of Wei Fenghe, the defence minister preceding Li Shangfu, were also announced at this meeting. However, Wei finds no mention in the Plenum Communiqué

CIA Director Reports Hamas Military Commanders Pressing Yahya Sinwar to End War

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Latest Developments

Hamas military chief Yahya Sinwar is reportedly facing growing pressure from his commanders to agree to a ceasefire deal with Israel, according to comments attributed to CIA director Bill Burns at a closed-door meeting on July 13. A CNN report on July 16 cited an unidentified source who described Burns’ assessment at the meeting that senior Hamas commanders were tired from more than nine months of fighting and were pressuring Sinwar to accept a ceasefire deal. Burns, who has represented the United States at multiple rounds of ceasefire talks in Egypt and Qatar, said that the pressure from the commanders means that the chance of Israel and Hamas agreeing to a ceasefire is greater now than in the recent past, although he added that the final stages of negotiations are always difficult.

Expert Analysis

“Hamas is feeling the heat. Egypt appears to have quietly but finally started to secure the Philadelphi Corridor, which is the way Hamas has re-armed and replenished its resources. In the meantime, the Israelis appear to have increasingly accurate intelligence on key Hamas assets. The war may not end tomorrow. But one gets a sense that Hamas is finally reaching its breaking point.” — Jonathan Schanzer, FDD Senior Vice President for Research

Putin’s Naval Flotilla In A Larger Strategic Context – Analysis

Garrett I. Campbell

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For all the media hype they generated, Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling threats to provide weapons to target Western countries and his naval flotilla’s visit to Cuba failed to alter Western willingness to provide aid to Ukraine. Russian Navy visits of this type occur every few years, and this one seems par for the course.

The flotilla, which included a frigate, two support ships, and a guided missile submarine, was never going to stimulate another Cuban Missile Crisis on its own. When put into the larger context of Russian political and military activities, the flotilla’s arrival in Cuba was seemingly the centerpiece of Putin’s response to Western nations’ approval for Ukraine to use Western weapons to strike Russia. It also occurred amid a spate of activities meant to signal Putin’s ability and willingness to escalate further. These included Russian air force violations of Swedish airspace, an unscheduled tactical nuclear weapons exercise, and Putin’s presentation of a peace ultimatum in an attempt to undermine the Swiss-sponsored Summit on Peace in Ukraine.

Putin acted true to form and played the escalation card as is his modus operandi. While none of these moved the needle on Western support for Ukraine, Cuba’s willingness to play a role in Putin’s theater of escalation matters. The West needs to better understand how Cuba fits within Russian strategic thinking and why it will likely figure prominently in any future crisis with the West.

Can Democracy Win Over West Africa’s Military Juntas? – OpEd

Komlan Avoulete

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West Africa is now facing a whirlwind of military takeovers. From Mali’s 2020 putsch to the recent tremors in Niger, these coups have shattered the region’s political equilibrium. On one side stand the military juntas of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, each promising stability and sovereignty in the face of rumbling insurgencies and foreign influences. Opposing them are Benin, Nigeria, and Côte d’Ivoire, where leaders, elected through elections and pro-Western, denounce the takeover by military juntas in neighboring countries. Caught in the middle are nations like Togo and Senegal, adopting a cautious approach to this new reality.

This simmering tension fuels a deteriorating security situation. Not only do the military juntas disrupt regional stability, but undemocratic civilian regimes further erode public trust in the democratic process. Meanwhile, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the organization entrusted with safeguarding democratic values, faces a more solid opponent: the Confederation of Sahel States.

In Africa, being elected through an election has nothing to do with being democratically elected. Although Africans view civilian-led governments as a path toward a democratic society, the reality has sometimes fallen short of expectations, with some governments contributing to political instability and even military coups. Critics point out that certain long-term leaders, those who change constitutions and those seeking a third or fourth term, undermine faith in democratic ideals. This skepticism extends to pronouncements by some Western and African experts who promote a romanticized view of civilian rule.

Ukraine Goes All-In on Ground Robots

Jack Detsch

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Ukraine’s military will be deploying robots to fight against Russia within the next year, part of a strategy to deal with a shortage of readily available human combat troops, the country’s defense industry czar said.

How the West Misunderstood Moscow in Ukraine

Julia Kazdobina, Jakob Hedenskog, and Andreas Umland

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Ten years ago today, news of the crash of Malaysian Airlines flight MH-17 in eastern Ukraine shocked the world. All 298 passengers on board the Boeing 777, including 80 children, perished. This tragic event was just one of the many shocks coming out of Ukraine that year, as the largest European war after 1945 unfolded in southern and eastern Ukraine.

The Florentine

Claudia Roth Pierpont

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One method of torture used in Florentine jails during the glorious days of the Renaissance was the strappado: a prisoner was hoisted into the air by a rope attached to his wrists, which had been tied behind his back, and then suddenly dropped toward the floor as many times as it took to get him to confess. Since the procedure usually dislocated the shoulders, tore the muscles, and rendered one or both arms useless, it is remarkable that Niccolò Machiavelli, after reportedly undergoing six such “drops,” asked for pen and paper and began to write. Machiavelli had nothing to confess. Although his name had been found on an incriminating list, he had played no part in a failed conspiracy to murder the city’s newly restored Medici rulers. (Some said that it was Giuliano de’ Medici who had been targeted, others that it was his brother Cardinal Giovanni.) He had been imprisoned for almost two weeks when, in February, 1513, in a desperate bid for pardon, he wrote a pair of sonnets addressed to the “Magnificent Giuliano,” mixing pathos with audacity and apparently inextinguishable wit. “I have on my legs, Giuliano, a pair of shackles,” he began, and went on to report that the lice on the walls of his cell were as big as butterflies, and that the noise of keys and padlocks boomed around him like Jove’s thunderbolts. Perhaps worried that the poems would not impress, he announced that the muse he had summoned had hit him in the face rather than render her services to a man who was chained up like a lunatic. To the heir of a family that prided itself on its artistic patronage, he submitted the outraged complaint “This is the way poets are treated!”

Russia’s vast stocks of Soviet-era weaponry are running out

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For a long time it seemed that a war of attrition between Ukraine and a Russia with five times its population could end only one way. But the much-vaunted Russian offensive against Kharkiv in the north that started in May is fizzling out. Its advances elsewhere along the line, especially in the Donbas region, have been both strategically trivial and achieved only at huge cost. The question now is less whether Ukraine can stay in the fight and more how long can Russia keep up its current tempo of operations.

The key issue is not manpower. Russia seems able to go on finding another 25,000 or so soldiers each month to retain around 470,000 men at the front, although it is having to pay more for them. Production of missiles to strike Ukrainian infrastructure is also surging. But for all the talk of Russia having become a war economy, with some 8% of its gdp devoted to military spending, it is able to replace its staggering losses of tanks, armoured infantry vehicles and artillery only by drawing out of storage and refurbishing stocks built up in the Soviet era. Huge though these stocks are, they are not infinite.

Understanding the New Parliament

SAM FREEDMAN

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Less than two weeks into the life of the new government it is still in its optimistic phase. All crises are the fault of the last lot; mistakes can be waved off as teething problems; the Lobby is desperate for access; and rhetorical ambition can be passed off as a plan. Labour are aided in this by the sheer awfulness of the last few years, which makes the bar for apparent competence very low.

But we are already seeing early examples of the types of issue that will cause more pain as the months pass. For instance, opposition parties, and irreconcilable left-wing MPs, used the King’s Speech debate to highlight tensions within Labour over the two-child limit.

The vast majority of Labour MPs and advisers consider it to be an indefensible policy, given removing it would take 600,000 children out of poverty. Yet, almost by accident, it became, in opposition, a symbol of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves’ determination to emphasise fiscal prudence over redistribution.

It will fail to generate much public dissent from backbenchers for now, beyond the usual suspects. It’s too early for a substantial rebellion, and most internal critics of the policy will be content, for now, with the hurried announcement of a taskforce on child poverty, with hints this will cover the two-child limit.

No More Sanctuary: NATO Must Prepare for War at Home

James Black

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NATO is grappling with a 21st-century reimagining of the threat that first galvanised its creation in 1949: the prospect of war directly threatening its citizens where they live and work. Yet too many nations still lack robust plans, organisations, legislative powers, or capabilities for tackling preparedness challenges or securing their homelands against shocks or attack.

Gone is the comforting notion that wars happen far from home. As NATO leaders have acknowledged in recent summits and its revised Strategic Concept, the alliance now faces direct and pressing threats. Even still, too many policymakers—let alone members of the public—cling to the idea that any future conflict involving NATO would primarily occur on its fringes, impacting only the border regions of eastern Europe or the frozen High North.

Instead, countries in western and central Europe, as well as the United States and Canada, face a mounting threat of direct attack on their homelands. The combination of age-old tactics with new technologies offers hostile actors such as Russia or China new ways to sabotage, disrupt, or damage the complex and vulnerable systems upon which allied societies depend, especially in a shooting war.

Azerbaijan Ethnically Cleansed Armenians. It Should Pay a Price | Opinion

Thomas Becker

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Last September, Azerbaijani forces attacked the self-governing enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, and within days all 120,000 ethnic Armenians fled their ancestral homeland, most becoming refugees in neighboring Armenia. Azerbaijan called it a voluntary exodus; Armenians viewed it as a case of expulsion, which is a war crime.

The verdict is now in: a report presented by Freedom House, an independent watchdog organization dedicated to the expansion of democracy and exposing human rights abuses, described this tragedy as a planned act of ethnic cleansing. Orchestrated under the despotic regime of Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev, this tragedy is not merely a regional issue but a profound violation of human rights that demands global action. Azerbaijan should not get away with it.

There is a direct connection between odious regimes and odious actions. Aliyev, who has ruled Azerbaijan since 2003, has systematically dismantled democratic institutions and consolidated power at home, creating a regime characterized by corruption, repression, and human rights abuses. The Aliyev regime's stranglehold on Azerbaijan is maintained through a combination of electoral fraud, suppression of dissent, and control over the media. Independent voices are silenced, political opponents are jailed, and civil society is stifled, creating an environment where power is maintained through fear and intimidation.

Current Defense Plans Require Unsustainable Future Spending

Dan Grazier, Julia Gledhill & Geoff Wilson

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The United States’ civilian and uniformed military leaders have created a budgetary time bomb set to explode in the next twenty years. Over the past several years, the military services have committed to a slew of new big-ticket weapon programs now in development. As these programs mature and enter production, national security spending is expected to increase to cover the costs. With weapons growing increasingly more technically complex, the ownership costs to maintain them over the long run could make an already challenging fiscal situation even worse.

To understand future trends, we can look at the growth of US defense spending over the past 50 years. In 1975, defense spending totaled $92 billion ($521 billion in 2023). By 2000, the Pentagon’s budget grew to $320 billion ($566 billion in 2023), representing a 7.41% growth in the last quarter of the 20th century.1 However, defense spending exploded in the post 9/11 era. The Biden administration recently requested $850 billion to fund the Pentagon in 2025. Adjusted for inflation, defense spending has increased more than 48% in just the first 24 years of this century.

Today, the United States spends more money on defense than it did during the peaks of the Korea, Vietnam, and Cold Wars, even after ending the longest war in our history three years ago.2

Pentagon to expand industry pool for CJADC2 experimentation

Courtney Albon

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When the Pentagon revealed it had delivered a baseline version of its marquis advanced command-and-control capability earlier this year, it proved it could quickly deliver a solution to a specific set of C2 requirements through focused experimentation.

The milestone was significant in that it represented a shift in the Defense Department’s approach to connecting military forces across operational domains, known as Combined Joint All Domain-Command and Control, or CJADC2.

Whereas DOD leaders had previously focused — and struggled to show progress — on the ultimate goal of full interoperability, this time they honed in on identifying capabilities to address operators’ most urgent problems and workflows and vetting them through a regular C2 exercise series known as Global Information Dominance Experiments, or GIDE.

Now, the Defense Department’s Chief Data and AI Officer Radha Plumb wants to expand on that work in two ways: targeting more of the department’s C2 capability needs and developing an enduring process through which companies can propose solutions and DOD can evaluate them.

America’s Africa Dilemma

Ebenezer Obadare

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Nowhere is pressure on the United States to reimagine its foreign policy more acutely felt than in Africa. Initially caught off guard by the unexpected reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Washington has found itself in bad odor in several African countries. When its flag is not being casually incinerated by protesters in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) early this year, it has to deal with the humiliation of eviction from military bases in countries—Chad and Niger, for instance—that it once saw as key counterinsurgency allies.

In one sense, the United States is a collateral victim, caught in the crossfire of anger and hostility directed toward the West specifically and nefarious foreigners and “colonizers” more broadly. At least in the Sahel region, whatever rage is aimed at the United States seems secondary to the fury reserved for France, the former colonial overlord widely—and not all that wrongly—accused of not minding its own business. Yet, in another sense, anti-American resentment is well-aimed, originating in longstanding grievances that the country is both imperious and neglectful, too inclined to make decisions independent of ethical considerations.

Washington’s predicament in Africa is further complicated by the fact that it appears to be losing ground to the geopolitical competition, especially Russia and China, both of which have managed to consolidate military and security alliances on the back of rising anti-Western sentiment. Since 2013, its famed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has seen Beijing committing billions of dollars in bilateral loans to big-ticket infrastructure projects, especially ports, railways, power plants, water projects, roads, and oil and gas pipelines across an estimated fifty-three out of fifty-four countries.

NATO’s false promises are encouraging misplaced Ukrainian hopes

CHRISTOPHER MCCALLION AND BENJAMIN H. FRIEDMAN

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At the 2024 NATO Summit in Washington, commemorating the alliance’s 75th anniversary, leaders offered Ukraine a fresh round of false hope in its war against Russia — which is worse than doing nothing.

Whether by military commitment or intensified support, the pretension that NATO could currently deliver a Ukrainian victory, or secure one later, encourages the country’s leaders to postpone reckoning with their dire circumstances. Moreover, it threatens to further imperil NATO members without a security payoff.

This charade is nothing new, but now is an especially bad time.

After the failure of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in 2023, recognition that its forces cannot regain more of its territory has begun to sink in. Indeed, despite the flow of heavy Western aid, Kyiv may struggle to hold what it has — a circumstance that suggests it should start exploring negotiations with Moscow to end or even freeze the conflict via an armistice now, before the battlefield situation worsens and negotiating room shrinks.

How can Keir Starmer keep Britain safe? As the US withdraws, he must renew the UK’s role in Europe

Mark Leonard

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Keir Starmer is reeling from England’s defeat in European football, but he will hope to be more successful in European politics. This week more than 45 leaders will gather under his leadership in Blenheim Palace for the fourth meeting of the European Political Community (EPC). The EPC summit is the brainchild of the French president, Emmanuel Macron, who called for the format to demonstrate European unity after Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

Starmer will want to use the moment to show that Britain is back. But in the eyes of many participants it is the absence of the United States, rather than the presence of the United Kingdom, that will be most resonant. The last time many of these same leaders gathered was in Washington, DC to celebrate NATO’s 75th anniversary. But when they convene in Oxfordshire their biggest protector will not be with them. And many fear this will become the new normal.

Opinion polls see Donald Trump with a growing lead ahead of November’s election. He has promised to enforce a peace deal on Ukraine and to downgrade American participation in European security. His surrogates are promoting a vision of “dormant NATO” (code for a NATO with fewer American troops, a European general as supreme allied commander, and an American withdrawal from the alliance’s military command). What’s more, even if Joe Biden is re-elected, his officials are very focused on “responsibility sharing”, by which they mean shifting responsibility for European security into European hands.

NC3 space systems face critical modernization challenges, new study finds

THERESA HITCHENS

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While the Defense Department is investing billions in modernization of all three legs of the nuclear triad, it is in danger of losing sight of serious risks to the foundational space-based systems of nuclear command, control and communications (NC3) that underpin those air-, land- and sea-based weapons, a study published today by the Atlantic Council argues.

Critically, NC3’s space-based elements “face different geopolitical, technical, and bureaucratic challenges” than the other elements of the broad, multi-year nuclear modernization effort — for which the Pentagon asked nearly $50 billion in its fiscal 2025 budget request, the study, “Modernizing

Space-Based Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications,” finds.

“Geopolitically, the two-nuclear-peer challenge, China’s perception of NC3 and strategic stability, and the prospect of limited nuclear use call into question the sufficiency of existing and next-generation NC3. Technically, Russia and China are developing more sophisticated counterspace weapons, which hold at risk space-based US NC3. Bureaucratically, the US Department of Defense (DOD)’s shift to a proliferated space architecture may not be appropriately prioritizing requirements for systems that are essential for NC3 missions,” the study sums up.