Indian Strategic Studies: 07/16/24

16 July 2024

India-Russia Ties Take A Quantum Leap In The Fog Of Ukraine War – OpEd

M.K. Bhadrakumar

The lodestar of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on July 8-9, it must be the disclosure by the Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration in the Kremlin Maxim Oreshkin that the two leaders discussed the topic of cash payments with the use of cards of national payment systems as an important element of trade support infrastructure and interaction in general.

Oreshkin added that the two countries are also putting in place an arrangement on interaction between their central banks on the issue of accepting national payment card.

At one stroke, Modi electrified the forthcoming BRICS Summit in Kazan in October. Modi also informed Putin that he will be attending the summit meeting. It is no secret that the BRICS member states are seeking to improve the international monetary and financial system and are prioritising the creation of a platform that will enable them to conduct transactions in national currencies in mutual trade.

The Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had announced after a meeting of the economic bloc’s foreign ministers in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, last month that “Our agenda is extensive. It includes issues that will directly affect the future world order based on fair grounds.” Indeed, more and more countries are having doubts about SWIFT, after many Russian banks were cut off from the Belgium-based financial messaging system following the start of the Ukraine conflict in 2022.

The Manipur Conflict: Internal Discontent, Policy Gaps, and Regional Implications

Anuradha Oinam and Stanzin Lhaskyabs

Catholic Christians hold placards and participate in a peace rally against violence in the northeastern Manipur state, in Hyderabad, India, Friday, Aug. 25, 2023.Credit: AP Photo/Mahesh Kumar A.

On June 9, 2024, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his newly elected Union Council of Ministers took their oaths in New Delhi, violence erupted in Manipur’s Jiribam district. Homes were burned, and many people were displaced. The Manipur conflict, which marked its first anniversary in May 2024, continues unabated. A high-level meeting led by Home Minister Amit Shah on June 17, 2024, highlights the ongoing security crisis in the region.

A Perpetual Turmoil

May 3, 2023, marked a dark day in Manipur’s history when violence erupted between the Meitei and Kuki communities in the Churachandpur district. The conflict began after a peaceful protest march organized by the All Tribal Student Union of Manipur (ATSUM) against the Manipur High Court’s recommendation to recognize the Meitei as a Scheduled Tribe (ST). The violence escalated from burning the Anglo-Kuki War Memorial to destroying homes and killings, displacing about 5,000 people within 48 hours. Within two months, the number of displaced individuals soared to 60,000, the death toll reached 70, and over 1,700 buildings, including homes and religious structures, were reduced to ashes. Social media disinformation and misinformation fueled further violence, including the use of rape as a weapon. Additionally, the looting of about 3,000 arms and ammunition from police stations and state armories exacerbated the conflict.

Afghan Canal Project Affecting Not Only Central Asia but China and Russia Too

Paul Goble

Afghanistan is pushing ahead with the construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal to divert water that has been flowing into neighboring countries to slow the desertification of its own territory and the threat of starvation to its population. The impact of Kabul’s decision on Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan has attracted some attention (see EDM, March 7). Now, the project, launched in 2022 and slated to be completed by 2028, is having a far broader impact on more distant Kazakhstan as well as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which have long enjoyed the reputation of being “water surplus” countries that do not need water from others (Window on Eurasia, August 19, 2021; Cabar.asia, February 29; TASS, March 20; The Times of Central Asia, June 11). The canal is also affecting China and Russia’s influence as the two outside powers most heavily involved in regional geopolitics (see EDM, December 7, 2021; Radio Azatlyk, March 29, 2023; Forbes.kz, April 8). While the Taliban’s recent decision to self-finance the project will slow down construction, Kabul hopes to limit the leverage of other countries in the region to influence the canal’s completion and operation.

The Afghan canal is on its way to having a more serious impact on Tajikistan than any other place in Central Asia. Water shortages in the country are already raising the specter of widespread hunger, and, given Dushanbe’s reliance on hydropower, the Qosh Tepa Canal will lead to a reduction in electric power production (TASS, March 20). Those twin developments, in turn, threaten to amplify Tajikistan’s difficulties in controlling its enormous but sparsely populated Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous region, a restive province bordering Afghanistan. China, Russia, and the United States have all tried to help Dushanbe stabilize the territory, lest the Taliban or other Islamist groups expand their influence northward (see EDM, June 22, November 3, 2022; ASIA-Plus, July 26, December 26, 2023; see Terrorism Monitor, October 31, 2023).

Geopolitical Tensions Complicate Proposed Kazakhstan–Turkmenistan–Afghanistan Transit Corridor

Syed Fazl-e-Haider

Astana has expedited efforts to establish a transport corridor through Afghanistan involving Turkmenistan. In May, Kazakhstan’s Trade Ministry announced plans to establish road and rail networks through Afghanistan to facilitate trade with South Asia and the Persian Gulf (Daryo, May 5, 6). Earlier, on April 27, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan had agreed at a high-level meeting in Kabul on the construction of transit infrastructure in Afghanistan to open a new corridor connecting Central Asia with South and West Asia. The participants in the trilateral meeting included Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin, Turkmenistan’s Transport and Communications Agency Director General Mammetkhan Chakyev, and Afghan Minister of Commerce and Industry Nooruddin Azizi (Afghanistan Times, April 29). Azizi expressed hope that the new corridor will transform war-torn Afghanistan into a logistics hub for regional exports. While the project aims to capitalize on regional transit upheavals largely brought on by Russia’s war against Ukraine, geopolitical rivalries and security concerns, especially in Afghanistan, may complicate these goals’ realization.

Under the plan, a logistics center would be built at Herat in western Afghanistan to facilitate regional exports. Russian oil sent to South Asian countries, including Pakistan and India, will presumably flow through the transport corridor, which will provide better links with existing infrastructure, as no new pipelines were mentioned during the trilateral meeting. During the meeting, Zhumangarin emphasized the importance of “recalculating and reorienting traffic flows” to support infrastructure development. The corridor would allow for the passage of millions of tons of Russian oil, which is expected to be purchased in the coming years by South Asian countries (Kursiv Media, May 3). Astana, Ashgabat, and Kabul also agreed to form a working group to move forward and implement the agreed-upon plans (News on Projects, May 2).

Pakistan’s New Military Operation Alarms Pashtuns

Osama Ahmad

On June 25, the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) launched a massive rally in the Khyber district. Thousands of people attended. The rally was called in response to the Pakistan federal government’s latest decision to launch a new military operation, named Azm-e-Istehkam, to counter the rising tide of terrorism in the country. The announcement came days after Chinese officials expressed displeasure over Pakistan’s deplorable security situation, and urged Islamabad to improve security for Chinese workers in Pakistan and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project.

While the specific target area for the military operation is not yet known, the announcement has sent shockwaves across the Pashtun region in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, including the former tribal districts known as the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), prompting strong reactions from both nationalist and religious parties.

Pashtuns’ concerns are not unfounded, as they have endured significant suffering during past operations, leading to worries that the new operation could bring back that traumatic past.

Kaleem Dawar*, a 46-year-old fruit seller in the North Waziristan district, told The Diplomat, “We have seen enough wars, destruction, and bloodshed. We don’t want it anymore. Our memories hurt, and we don’t want to go back to the past again.” Dawar concluded with tears forming at the corners of his eyes, asking, “Who in the whole world would want continuous wars and bloodshed?”

Following Pakistan’s announcement of a new military operation, the Hafiz Gul Bahadur (HGB) group announced the launch of a counter-operation named Al-Fatah bi al-Nusratul Rehman, to oppose the security forces in North Waziristan. Additionally, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) also announced a counter-operation named Azm-e-Shariat in response to Pakistan’s military operation, aiming to increase its attacks in Pakistan.

It is feared that in the ensuing struggle between the militants and the military, average Pashtuns are likely to suffer the most.

Deportation of Afghan Migrants to Continue, Pakistan Government Says

Munir Ahmed

The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi, left, meets with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, in Islamabad, Pakistan, Tuesday, July 9, 2024.Credit: X/PMLN

Pakistan will consider a plan to expel hundreds of thousands more Afghans who have been living in the country for years, the foreign ministry said Thursday, the latest in a monthslong government clampdown on undocumented migrants.

The plan is still in the works, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch told reporters — and the government may ultimately reject it.

It would mark the “second phase” of the “Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan” and it would involve persons who had been given identification documents known as “Afghan citizen cards” to legalize their stay in Pakistan for a limited time.

“At this stage, I do not have a date to share with you,” she said at a weekly news briefing in the capital, Islamabad, adding that an announcement about the action would be made “at an appropriate time.”

Pakistan’s crackdown on undocumented migrants has drawn sweeping criticism from the United Nations, aid agencies and human rights groups.

Since the deportations started, an estimated 600,000 Afghans have gone back to Afghanistan. After forcing thousands back daily, the deportations slowed down and appeared to halt in recent months.

On Wednesday, following a visit by the U.N. refugee agency chief, Filippo Grandi, Islamabad announced it has extended the stay of 1.45 million Afghan refugees residing in the country.

During his visit, Grandi welcomed what he described as the Pakistan government’s suspension of the deportations.

Myanmar Insurgent Allies Capture Strategic Shan State Town From Junta

An alliance of insurgent forces battling to end army rule has captured a major town in northern Myanmar, a spokesperson for the main group told Radio Free Asia, in the latest setback for the junta that seized power in a 2021 military coup.

The Ta’ang National Liberation Army, or TNLA, and allied forces seized the last base in Shan state’s Nawnghkio town from junta troops on Wednesday, after two weeks of fighting, the spokesperson said.

“We were able to capture the junta’s missile battalion in Nawnghkio town at around 3 p.m.,” the spokesperson told RFA.

The junta has not released any information on the battle, and Shan state’s junta spokesperson, Khun Thein Maung, did not answer inquiries from RFA.

The TNLA, which is part of an alliance of three ethnic minority insurgent forces known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance, ended a five-month ceasefire with the junta on June 25.

Since then, the group has been fighting for territory in Shan state’s Nawnghkio, Kyaukme, Mongmit and Hsipaw townships, as well as in Mandalay region’s Mogoke township. The alliance has since claimed to have captured at least 26 bases across the north.

The alliance launched an offensive last November, codenamed Operation 1027 for the date it began, and pushed back junta forces in several regions, including along northeastern Myanmar’s border with China.

Insurgent forces in other parts of the country have stepped up their attacks since then too, posing the biggest challenge the military has faced in years of conflict.

China, concerned about its economic interests, according to Myanmar sources, brokered peace talks in Shan state in January that brought a halt to the conflict there. But the truce collapsed late last month and fighting has surged since then.

PRC Use of Middlemen to Circumvent US Government Export Controls: The Case of Suzhou Rebes Electronic

Matthew Bruzzese

As strategic competition between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) increases, the US Government has become more vigilant in its attempts to prevent the illegal export of sensitive technology to the PRC. This has included the addition of more PRC institutions to the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) Entity List, as well increased enforcement and legal action against individuals found to be violating export control measures (Federal Register, December 19, 2022; see Defense One, June 8, 2021). Despite this, sanctioned PRC entities have continued to find ways to circumvent these measures and acquire the critical foreign technologies they need to advance the PRC’s military modernization. This has included sanctioned PRC defense companies’ use of thinly veiled straw purchasers to acquire needed technology from the United States that would otherwise be off-limits to them. The recent indictment of two PRC nationals attempting to use a front company to purchase critical semiconductor manufacturing equipment on behalf of a blacklisted PRC entity shows that this continues to be a go-to method in the toolkit of any would-be smuggler hoping to circumvent US export control laws (US Department of Justice, April 25; Tencent, April 30).

In October 2022, a report in The Washington Post revealed that US technology was being used to advance the PRC’s hypersonic weapons program (Washington Post, October 17, 2022). The report put a spotlight on PRC use of middlemen, as the technology had apparently found its way from the United States to PRC missile research institutes via straw purchasers offering a very flimsy veneer of plausible deniability about the final destination for this technology.

What to expect at the Chinese Communist Party’s most important meeting of the year

Jeremy Mark

As China grapples with a property crisis, high youth unemployment, tumbling business and consumer confidence, and an ocean of local government debt, one might expect the government to put everything it has into plans to pull the country out of the economic doldrums. But a meeting of senior Chinese leaders this month is shaping up to offer a very different set of reforms.

Instead of focusing on China’s current problems, the Third Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) Central Committee—so-called because it is the third session of the committee’s five-year term—will prepare China for a confrontation with the United States by building industries powered by massive investments in cutting-edge technologies. This program is aimed at reinforcing the party’s hold on Chinese society and paying obeisance to paramount leader Xi Jinping, whose policy mistakes—ranging from zero-COVID-19 lockdowns to a crackdown on major online companies—have produced economic malaise. It will also underline China’s shift away from its longtime economic strategy of growth for growth’s sake.

Among the policies expected to be announced at the July 15-18 plenum (which was inexplicably delayed from late 2023) will be reforms restructuring tax and fiscal policies, as well as greater coordination of regional economic development. Both are policies that will reinforce the role of the central government in guiding development. There will probably also be declarations of support for China’s beleaguered private sector, which accounts for more than 60 percent of gross domestic product and over 80 percent of urban employment. But Xi and his subordinates have emphasized that the policy pendulum is swinging decidedly toward statist solutions.

NATO Sounds Alarm on China’s Advances in Space and Nuclear, Ties with Russia

Chris Gordon and Unshin Lee Harpley

NATO leaders gathered in Washington D.C. for the alliance’s 75th anniversary summit said they were alarmed by China’s ambitions and aggression in nuclear, space, and cyberspace on top of its deepening ties with Russia, calling on the People’s Republic of China to act more responsibly.

“The PRC continues to rapidly expand and diversify its nuclear arsenal with more warheads and a larger number of sophisticated delivery systems,” the Washington Summit Declaration, released July 10, stated. “We urge the PRC to engage in strategic risk reduction discussions and promote stability through transparency.”

The declaration also said allies were concerned about “developments in the PRC’s space capabilities and activities.”

China’s advancements in nuclear weapons and space in recent years have sparked widespread apprehension, with U.S. analysts and military leaders frequently highlighting Beijing’s extremely rapid progress. China currently operates nearly 500 intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance satellites, forming a formidable “sensor-shooter kill web” that poses significant risks to U.S. forces, and the Pentagon estimates China could possess over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030, many of which will be deployed at heightened readiness levels, with plans for continued expansion.

Evolving Chinese cyber threat 'should worry us all': U.K. cyber head

NAOYA YOSHINO

China and North Korea are among the world's most worrisome countries in terms of cybersecurity threats, but that is not the full extent of the risks, the head of the British government's National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) said in an interview.

"Increasingly, we're worried about the proliferation of cyber challenges, which allow any country in the world to purchase cyber, malware or other challenges to hit us or businesses in our countries," the NCSC's COO and interim CEO Felicity Oswald told Nikkei.

Edited excerpts from the interview follow.

Q: Critics have said Japan lags far behind Western nations in cybersecurity measures. What do you think about Japan's cybersecurity vulnerabilities and the risks to its national security and corporate activity?

A: It is not for me to say that Japan is lagging behind. I do think, though, that the cyber threats we all face are getting more and more complex.

The threats we face from cyber range from criminal actors all around the world, including in Russia, but also from nation states. So we at the National Cyber Security Centre mainly talk about four big nation states: China, of course, Russia, Iran and North Korea. And then increasingly, we're worried about the proliferation of cyber challenges, which allow any country in the world to purchase cyber, malware or other challenges to hit us or businesses in our countries.

Can NATO Really Cut Off China? - ANALYSIS

Lili Pike, Jack Detsch, and Robbie Grame

At the NATO summit in Washington, the alliance issued its strongest indictment yet of China’s support for Russia, accusing Beijing of supplying critical materials for Russia’s war machine and signaling that NATO is prepared to impose higher costs on China going forward.

Nikkei Asia: Beating The Competition In Anti-China Reporting – OpEd

Lim Teck Ghee

Among international media engaged in China news reporting, CNN and BBC stand out as the most prominent in their production of anti-China stories and analysis. Of late, Nikkei Asia which is a part of Japan’s Nikkei Inc. media empire appears bent on giving these two organisations a run for their money in which outfit can produce the most mischievous and twisted interpretation and commentary to accompany any China news they carry.

In its China closeup column, Nikkei Asia most recently published a lurid account of a knife attack incident near Shanghai. Written by its Tokyo based senior staff and editorial writer, the article led with the title, Tragedy shows China’s anti-Japan social media fire burns out of control: Other stabbings reflect a society that cannot vent its social and economic frustrations. In its inflammatory effort to generate propaganda and hate material against China and the Chinese population, the article linked what is a tragic and isolated incident to the “anti-Japan and anti-U.S. trend … seen as an outgrowth of China’s “wolf warrior” diplomacy toward Japan, the U.S. and Europe”. See https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/Analysis-Tragedy-shows-China-s-anti-Japan-social-media-fire-burns-out-of-control

In the attempt to further increase the volume of anti-China distorted news generally supported by manufactured ‘alternative’ facts and views by often anonymous ‘experts’, Nikkei Asia’s sister news organisation – the Financial Times (FT) previously a British publication headquartered in London with editorial offices in Britain, the US and Europe and now owned by Nikkei – came out with a similar story three days later with the title, China stabbing attacks raise concerns of growing social tensions. Economic doldrums, unemployment and isolation could be playing into crime wave, analysts say.

Despite its claim to be an ‘independent provider of quality journalism’, the Nikkei news empire is seen as far from being independent. Its political alignment has been variously described as Center-right, Conservative Liberalism and Conservative. What it stands for is to wave the Japanese flag of nationalism and militarism in support of the Liberal Democratic party which has led the government since 1955 in what is virtually a de facto one party state that few among its western supporters will admit to. It also has a long standing institutionalised relationship with the national government to benefit itself and Japan’s big business. According to reporter Hiroko Tabuchi of the New York Times in 2022, the Nikkei’s purchase of the FT was “worrying” as “[the] Nikkei is basically a PR machine for Japanese biz; it initially ignored the 2011 Olympus accounting scandal (which FT broke). Nikkei has also hardly covered the Takata airbag defect; almost no investigative work on that issue whatsoever. Nikkei is Japan Inc.”

NATO in the Crosshairs of the Houthis

Doug Livermore

The Houthis’ anti-shipping activities in Yemen, including the use of mines, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), unmanned surface vessels (USVs), and missile strikes, have significant implications for NATO countries.

The attacks not only threaten the security of maritime routes but also play a crucial role in the broader context of irregular warfare and strategic competition involving China, Russia, and Iran. Whereas NATO is a purely defensive alliance committed to the security and interests of its member states, these authoritarian states leverage the Houthis in Yemen to indirectly undermine the economic prosperity, freedom of navigation, and overarching security interests of the transatlantic alliance.

The alliance must therefore understand the threat posed by these Western-hostile proxies if they are to counter this concerning development.

The Houthis’ control of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline positions them to disrupt one of the world’s most vital maritime chokepoints: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This narrow passage connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. While it lies south of the Tropic of Cancer, and therefore outside NATO’s geographical limit, the alliance’s interest is unquestionable.

The Attempt on Donald Trump’s Life and an Image That Will Last

Benjamin Wallace-Wells

Almost immediately after shots rang out at Donald Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, the former President flinched onstage, grabbed at his face, and dropped to the ground. In the chaotic moments that followed, Trump was helped to his feet by Secret Service agents, and delivered definitive proof of life: he raised his right fist toward the sky and mouthed to the crowd, “Fight.” In the news photo that circulated shortly after, taken by Evan Vucci, of the Associated Press, Trump is set against a clear blue sky and four Secret Service agents clutch at him, one of whom stares directly at the camera, his eyes shielded by a pair of black sunglasses. An American flag appears to almost float over the scene. Trump’s lips are pursed, his eyes narrowed, and his chin slightly raised. There are streaks of blood atop his right ear, and on his cheek. He is looking out far beyond what the camera can take in—at the public, at the future—and he is defiant. Whoever tried to kill him failed. It is already the indelible image of our era of political crisis and conflict.

Other images, screenshots, and fragments of information rushed onto social media and filled out the story. In one, a Secret Service agent kneeling on the grass turns his body and extends a finger, presumably to identify the shooter, who had reportedly taken up a position on a rooftop outside the rally. In another, taken just after Trump fell to the stage, the former President’s head is framed, a few inches off of the ground with blood dribbling down his cheek, between someone’s legs. And, in a third, taken seconds after Trump rose to his feet, he is being held by several Secret Service agents who have surrounded him; one has both hands over Trump’s head to protect him, but it almost looks as if someone is praying over him. Each of these photographs freezes the moment, draining it of the chaos that is apparent in the live streams. They also add a sense of foreboding; the figures in these images, and anyone who views them, are all waiting, with trepidation, for what comes next. The Trump campaign soon released a statement that said, “He is fine and is being checked out at a local medical facility.” Everyone should agree that that is good news. What happened is horrifying. That flag, hanging at an odd angle, almost upside down, offers a sense of the eeriness of this moment, and of the general dread.

Why Build AbramsX When the Ukraine War Shows Thousands of Tanks Destroyed?

Maya Carlin

AbramsX: Already Obsolete Thanks to Ukraine War?

The decimation of main battle tanks in the fighting between Russia and Ukraine has some analysts wondering whether these military systems are still worth the cost.

Armored vehicles have played pivotal roles in warfare since their introduction to combat more than a century ago. Useful for breaking enemy lines in warfare, transporting troops, and providing unmatched versatility for ground forces, heavy cavalry is a vital component of an armored corps.

Tanks play a leading role in Ukraine, proving they are not obsolete. But the mounting tank losses on both sides also suggests even the most modern MBTs struggle to survive against advanced anti-tank weaponry. Thousands of tanks have been lost since Russia invaded in February 2022. Despite this performance, the U.S. is determined, to develop a costly new hybrid-electric MBT in the near future.

Introducing the Abrams Series of MBTs

The U.S. Army is designing its new AbramsX tank series to be lighter, faster, and more fuel-efficient than its predecessors.

The Abrams tank series has its roots in the Cold War-era MBT-70 program, which sought to develop a replacement for the legendary M60 Patton.

The US held off sanctioning this Israeli army unit despite evidence of abuses. Now its forces are shaping the fight in Gaza

Former commanders of the Netzah Yehuda battalion, an Israeli military unit that has been accused by the United States of gross human rights violations against Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank prior to October 7, have been promoted to senior positions in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and are now active in training Israeli ground troops as well as running operations in Gaza, a CNN investigation has found.

Among CNN’s findings was rare whistleblower testimony from a former soldier of the unit who described a command that encouraged a culture of violence, an issue identified by US State Department investigations.

In April, the State Department said that it had determined five Israeli security units had committed gross violations of human rights prior to the outbreak of the war with Hamas in Gaza. The department said that four of the units had “effectively remediated,” or reformed themselves, in the wake of those violations, but that it was still deciding whether to restrict US military assistance to the remaining unit: The Netzah Yehuda battalion, originally created to accommodate ultra-Orthodox Jews in the military.

U.S. military to award $3 billion contract for AI-driven intelligence

Sandra Erwin

The U.S. military is poised to award an estimated $3 billion multi-year contract for commercial data and analytics services to monitor potential threats across the Indo-Pacific region, a focal point of global geopolitics and a priority theater for the Department of Defense.

The program, known as Long-Range Enterprise Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Activity (LEIA), seeks to procure a wide spectrum of commercial data and advanced AI-driven analytics, integrating information from ground, aerial, and space-based platforms.

The LEIA contract is expected to be awarded later this year. It is a full and open competition and several firms are expected to compete for the award..

The program is coordinated by the Special Operations Command Pacific that supports U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM).

The size of the contract reflects the U.S. military’s growing demand for commercial sources of data such as imaging satellites and AI-driven analytics to track and respond to potential threats. U.S. INDOPACOM in the LEIA solicitation emphasized commanders’ needs for timely ISR and space-based capabilities to maintain situational awareness in the region.

How Hamas Is Fighting in Gaza: Tunnels, Traps and Ambushes

Patrick Kingsley, Natan Odenheimer, Aaron Boxerman, Adam Sella and Iyad Abuheweila

They hide under residential neighborhoods, storing their weapons in miles of tunnels and in houses, mosques, sofas — even a child’s bedroom — blurring the boundary between civilians and combatants.

They emerge from hiding in plainclothes, sometimes wearing sandals or tracksuits before firing on Israeli troops, attaching mines to their vehicles, or firing rockets from launchers in civilian areas.

They rig abandoned homes with explosives and tripwires, sometimes luring Israeli soldiers to enter the booby-trapped buildings by scattering signs of a Hamas presence.

Through eight months of fighting in Gaza, Hamas’s military wing — the Qassam Brigades — has fought as a decentralized and largely hidden force, in contrast to its Oct. 7 attack on Israel, which began with a coordinated large-scale maneuver in which thousands of uniformed commandos surged through border towns and killed roughly 1,200 people.

Instead of confronting the Israeli invasion that followed in frontal battles, most Hamas fighters have retreated from their bases and outposts, seeking to blunt Israel’s technological and numerical advantage by launching surprise attacks on small groups of soldiers.

The U.S. Needs to Rebuild Its Military Might - OPINION

Dan Sullivan

Nearly every leader I spoke with during this week’s North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit agrees: The world has become consumed by chaos. Dictators in Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are working together to undermine the free world. There’s little doubt why they feel emboldened: Under the Biden administration, U.S. military readiness has significantly diminished and authoritarians sense weakness. They’re perceptive.

America urgently needs to embrace the philosophy of peace through strength that has guided Republican presidents from Ronald Reagan to Donald Trump and kept our nation safe. Thankfully at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee next week, Mr. Trump will present the Republican Party’s plan to do exactly that should he be re-elected in November.

The party’s recently released platform calls for making America’s military the “most modern, lethal and powerful” force in the world. That isn’t a new playbook. The GOP has a long tradition of championing robust investments in America’s vital defense needs. The Democrats, meantime, have targeted the nation’s defense budget since at least Jimmy Carter’s presidency at the expense of our military readiness and national security.

Secular Stagnation How Religion Endures in a Godless Age

Shadi Hamid

Until recently, it may have seemed as if religion were on the way out. As people grew richer and more educated, the thinking went, they would begin to rely less on the solace and meaning provided by faith. That is what happened in much of western Europe, where church membership rates have cratered over the last century. According to a 2018 Pew study, only 11 percent of people in western European countries say religion is a very important part of their lives.

What the Lebanese People Really Think of Hezbollah

MaryClare Roche and Michael Robbins

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently declared that as his country’s military operations in Gaza wind down, Israel will turn its attention to its foe to the north: the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah. The two parties have a long history of conflict rooted in Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982, its occupation of the southern portion of the country from 1985 to 2000, and a full-scale war the two sides fought in 2006. In recent years, Israel and Hezbollah have been carrying out low-scale cross-border attacks.

The Problems Still Plaguing NATO

ByIlan Berman

This week’s NATO summit in Washington is, by any measure, a grand affair, full of the pomp and ceremony befitting the bloc’s 75th anniversary. It also offers up a useful opportunity to reflect on the state of the most successful military alliance in history.

On the surface, the verdict is positive. Today, the Alliance appears to once again be on the march, thanks largely to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and the bloody war of aggression it has waged against Kyiv since, has breathed new life into a bloc that just a few years ago was being written off by its own leaders as “brain dead.”

Over the past two-and-a-half years, the practical necessities of protecting Ukraine have jump-started conversations across the European continent about a reinvigorated defense-industrial base. In response to the specter of further Russian aggression, the bloc has increased its operational tempo, interoperability and area of military operations. And it has expanded, adding two members (Sweden and Finland) that eschewed their traditional neutrality to seek the protection from Moscow’s imperial designs offered by collective defense. As a result, the NATO alliance is now more dynamic and robust than at any time in recent memory.

Dig a bit deeper, though, and some serious internal contradictions become visible.

UK defence: new options for change

As in most other areas of policy, the new United Kingdom Labour government is promising significant change on the defence and security front. But as it prepares to launch a new defence review, the challenges are great, the options are limited, and the need to make some tough choices may be looming.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, given global events, the new Labour government in the United Kingdom is already under pressure to flesh out its plans for defence and security – including spending. In terms of its overall strategy, the significant promised change may be more in the nature of emphasis rather than radical course correction. But that may still be significant and not easy to deliver. The government also has to grapple with urgent capability challenges and clear readiness shortfalls which have been thrown into sharp focus by a rapidly deteriorating strategic backdrop. Here, options are limited, some stark choices may have to be made, and available resources will, as always, be critical.

Challenges and choicesIn many ways, Labour’s diagnosis of the threats and challenges hardly differs from that of its predecessor Conservative administrations. These include an increasingly volatile and contested world, requiring a comprehensive and integrated response, shoring up alliances, rebuilding capabilities (including mass and sustainability) and rapid adaptation enabled in part by a more effective partnership between government and the defence industry. The difference is that it is now up to this administration to deliver on this.

Some of Labour’s building blocks for this have already been set out. One is a more central military strategic headquarters within the Ministry of Defence to improve long-term planning and preparedness. Another is the creation of a new National Armaments Director post to help oversee, among other things, that perennial challenge of defence procurement reform. But real progress in this area has been stubbornly elusive despite past efforts.

Being Smart About AI: How To Better Minimize AI Risks While Maximizing Spectacular Benefits – Analysis

Mark Cummings

Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) has tremendous potential societal benefits. How to apply it to realize those benefits is unclear. The technology itself is evolving rapidly, becoming more and more powerful. This puts organizational leadership in a vulnerable spot. How can business, nonprofit or government organization leaders capture the benefits of this dramatic technological innovation while minimizing the risks?

At this time last year, any company that mentioned AI in its quarterly report saw its stock rise. Those days are over. Now organizations are struggling to show financial returns on those early investments. There are still rewards for AI investment, but this is now more discriminatory.

In the near future, organizations that have announced AI initiatives in previous quarters will see negative repercussions if they don’t report benefits from them in the current quarter. Companies that report damage from AI investments will see even worse repercussions.

This means that today’s leaders need to know how to navigate AI. They don’t need to fully understand how the technology works; they just need to know the risks inherent in applying it and how to implement an innovation ecosystem to capture real benefits. To this end, they should use the GenAI taxonomy and innovation ecosystem funnel method while practicing good communication.

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