Indian Strategic Studies: 07/11/24

11 July 2024

Putin Hosts India’s Modi to Deepen Ties, but Ukraine Looms Over Their Relationship

Emma Burrows and Krutika Pathi

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Tuesday, seeking to deepen the relationship between the two nuclear powers at a time when NATO leaders gathered in Washington and Russia launched deadly missile attacks in Ukraine that hit a children’s hospital.

“Our relationship is one of a particularly privileged strategic partnership,” Putin told Modi, who made his first trip to Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Kremlin’s forces in 2022.

Modi has avoided condemning Russia while emphasizing a peaceful settlement. Their partnership has become more complicated, however, as Russia has moved closer to China amid international isolation of Moscow over Ukraine. Modi did not attend last week’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Kazakhstan. The security organization was founded by Moscow and Beijing and New Delhi became a full member in 2017.

Modi arrived in Moscow on Monday, shortly after Russian missiles struck across Ukraine, severely damaging the largest children’s hospital in Kyiv and killing at least 42 people nationwide, including some children, officials said.

Is it time for the US to recognize the Taliban?

GIORGIO CAFIERO

Late last month, roughly two dozen countries sent envoys to Qatar for a conference about international engagement with Afghanistan and for the first time the Taliban participated too.

Taliban representatives attended the latest round of the “Doha process” because, unlike the May 2023 gathering, activists were not in attendance this time around. This conference gave the Taliban the chance to call on the U.S. and other western governments to lift economic sanctions on Afghanistan and build deeper ties with the Islamist regime in Kabul.

That diplomats from these roughly two dozen countries and Taliban officials attended this recent conference speaks to the fact that more states are engaging the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA), even if no government has officially recognized the Taliban since it reconquered the country in August 2021.

Most of Afghanistan’s immediate neighbors and a host of non-western, Muslim-majority countries along with China and Russia have essentially informally recognized the Taliban and stepped up outreach to the IEA to further their own economic, trade, and security interests.

Japan and Korea join Australian-led pushback on Chinese hacking

Andrew Greene

Australia and key regional partners are accusing a Chinese spy agency of cyber espionage, targeting government and business networks, in a large-scale operation that involves stealing hundreds of usernames and passwords.

Cyber intelligence agency the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) has just published a new advisory detailing the activities of the notorious APT40 (Advanced Persistent Threat) group, which is linked to Beijing's Ministry of State Security (MSS).

"APT40 has repeatedly targeted Australian networks as well as government and private sector networks in the region, and the threat they pose to our networks is ongoing," the advisory published on Tuesday morning said.

"Notably, APT40 possesses the capability to rapidly transform and adapt exploit proof-of-concept(s) (POCs) of new vulnerabilities and immediately utilise them against target networks possessing the infrastructure of the associated vulnerability.

Why the Panchen Lama Matters

Antonio Terrone

The 11th Panchen Lama of Tibet, Chokyi Gyalpo, has been called many names in and outside China, including “fake,” a “Chinese puppet,” “Jiang Zemin’s Panchen” and a “Chinese Panchen.”

Many claim that his influence in Tibetan affairs is negligible. The reasons for these negative conceptions go back to the controversial way in which the People’s Republic of China (PRC) selected him after disqualifying another boy that the 14th Dalai Lama Tenzin Gyatso had already recognized as the 11th Panchen Lama, Gendun Chokyi Nyima, because the process lacked the authority of the Chinese government.

The whereabouts of Gendun Chokyi Nyima have remained unknown since 1992.

Even so, dismissing the PRC-appointed 11th Panchen Lama Chokyi Gyalpo can be detrimental to the future of Tibetans in China and to the safeguarding of Tibetan cultural heritage. The wellbeing and interests of the Tibetan people in China depend not on forces and powers outside their land, but on those inside.

Stop Federal Grants from Strengthening China’s Military

Marco Rubio

Last November, investigative reporters uncovered that the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) had provided $30 million in artificial intelligence research grants to a Chinese scientist at the Beijing Institute of Technology, a university tasked with developing next-generation weapons for the People’s Liberation Army. The news came as a shock to American policymakers and ordinary citizens alike. It was unthinkable that the U.S. government would fund our chief adversary’s defense industrial base.

I would like to say the story ends there. The reality, however, is that this scandal is just the tip of the iceberg. A new unclassified analysis provided to my office by the Naval Criminal Investigative Service (NCIS) reveals that U.S. taxpayers have been unwittingly funding thousands of Chinese experiments with direct applications to the Chinese military. Their findings note more than 5,000 instances of research collaboration between the DoD’s funding agencies and Chinese entities between 2019 and 2024.

These are not just any entities but groups closely linked to Beijing’s ambitions to steal American technology and defeat the U.S. military in a potential conflict. NCIS specifically records eighty-one collaborations with China’s nuclear weapon research and development complex, hundreds of collaborations with the “Seven Sons of National Defense” and the “Seven Sons of Ordnance Industry”—China’s premier defense industry-affiliated universities—and seventeen collaborations with China’s National University of Defense Technology—the People’s Liberation Army’s premier scientific research institute. NCIS also reports dozens of collaborations connected to Beijing’s “acknowledge talent” program, an initiative that recruits top minds to appropriate information and expertise for China’s economic and military development.

China: ‘Impossible’ radar simulation tracks 10 hypersonic missiles at Mach 20

Christopher McFadden

Chinese scientists claim they have developed a new radar system that can track multiple hypersonic missiles traveling up to Mach 20. A form of microwave photonic radar, the new system has a range of 373 miles (600 km) and can even distinguish real targets from false alarms.

Developed by a team led by Professor Zheng Xiaoping from Tsinghua University’s Department of Electronic Engineering. , the new radar demonstrated impressive accuracy in ground-based simulations. The microwave photonic radar is small and lightweight, making it suitable for loading onto air defense missiles or planes.

Under these tests, the radar estimated a missile’s distance at nearly 22,966 feet per second (7 km per second) with an error margin of just 11 inches (28 cm).

During the tests, the radar also yielded an unprecedented 99.7% accuracy in estimating the missile’s speed.

Next-generation radar

According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the team successfully addressed the challenge of creating and analyzing high-precision radar signals by integrating lasers into the radar design. This breakthrough allows information to be transmitted between essential points at the speed of light.

Avoiding War in the South China Sea

Ryan Hass

Throughout this year, American officials have been privately and publicly signaling to their Chinese counterparts that the United States is firmly committed to upholding its alliance commitments to the Philippines. The message is intended as a warning not to test the limits of American tolerance for Chinese attempts to obstruct access to Second Thomas Shoal, a submerged reef in the South China Sea where a grounded Philippines vessel, the Sierra Madre, serves as an outpost for Filipino soldiers. In May, Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., delivered a keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, warning that if a Filipino citizen is killed by a willful act, it would be “very, very close to what we define as an act of war,” which could compel the Philippines to invoke the 1951 mutual defense treaty with the United States.

Such rhetoric has not stopped Beijing from trying to prevent the Philippines from resupplying the Sierra Madre. The Philippines has successfully reinforced the outpost in recent months. But on June 17, the Chinese coast guard intentionally collided with a Philippine resupply boat. Chinese servicemen wielded axes, machetes, and improvised spears, and a Filipino sailor lost a finger in the ensuing skirmish. A video of the confrontation went viral. Chinese and Philippine vessels continue to operate close to one another. The risk remains high that an incident could result in the death of a Filipino soldier, potentially triggering the U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty and bringing American and Chinese forces to the brink of conflict.

How China Benefits from a Russian Long War in Ukraine

MICK RYAN

The NATO 75th anniversary summit will be held in Washington DC in the coming 48 hours. Key issues on the agenda will include the war in Ukraine, enhanced deterrence and improving military interoperability. But it is likely that China’s support to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine will also be a topic of discussion. As outgoing NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, recently noted, China is "sharing a lot of technologies, [like] micro-electronics, which are key for Russia to build missiles, weapons they use against Ukraine…at some stage, we should consider some kind of economic cost if China doesn't change their behaviour".

Last week, reports emerged of Chinese and Russian companies allegedly beginning co-development this year of an attack drone similar to the Iranian Shahed uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) that has been deployed in the thousands by Russia against Ukrainian targets. Last year, a Chinese defence company unveiled an attack drone which it called the Sunflower 200. This aerial vehicle looked very similar to the Iranian- Shahed-136 drone that has been procured and employed by Russia against Ukraine.

Also last week, Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping travelled to the capital of Kazakhstan for a meeting of leaders from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The joint communique from this meeting stated that “the circle of states that stand for a just world order and are ready to resolutely defend their legitimate rights and protect traditional values is expanding.”

The true President of America’s Fifth Republic Obama, not Biden, is the nation's new Lincoln

David Samuels

The fireworks in America this Fourth of July will be fuelled by the country’s imminent election, in which a convicted felon faces off against a doddering old man who is too senile to know that he isn’t really the President. The country’s elite would be glad if this were hyperbole; unfortunately for them, it is not. But Joe Biden’s fitness for office is no longer the big question that the American press is afraid to ask. After three years of near-total silence, they suddenly can’t stop asking it.

There may have indeed been members of America’s political and media elites who were shocked by Biden’s debate performance. Crediting the sincerity of their reactions doesn’t say much for their powers of observation, though. Biden’s shuffling gait, frozen facial expressions, babbling fabulist arabesques and inability to perform simple physical tasks without falling down have all been on public display since the first year of his Presidency — an office he won mostly in absentia while hiding out in the basement of his home in Delaware.

It is certainly possible that the American elite stuck its fingers in its ears and covered its eyes in order to block out Biden’s resemblance to late-period Leonid Brezhnev. Perhaps by repeating the ideas that Biden was not only sharp as a tack but also a geopolitical genius and probably even the greatest American President of any of our lifetimes, they came to believe that some version of these things were true, and had to be true — because everyone said so.

Why NATO Needs Ukraine

Jorge Benitez

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine changed the balance of power in Europe. It is time for the leaders of NATO to understand this new security environment and realize that NATO membership for Ukraine can provide a long-term solution to Russia’s desire and capabilities for aggression.

The geography of NATO has changed significantly since the end of the Cold War. After several new democracies in Central Europe became members, NATO membership has moved significantly to the east. NATO’s new members are now the most vulnerable to attack from Russia because they are smaller (both in terms of population and geography) and farther away from reinforcements from the rest of their allies.

For example, Estonia has a population of 1.3 million, Latvia has 1.9 million, and Lithuania has 2.7 million (5.9 million total). Their combined armed forces are about 47,950 active-duty personnel. In other words, these NATO members close to Russia have a combined population smaller than New York City’s (8.3 million people) and a combined military force size only marginally larger than that of the New York City Police Department (36,000 officers). Prior to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, these NATO members were facing 200,000 troops in Russia’s Western Military District, which periodically practiced invading NATO in the ZAPAD exercises.

Scam Of The Century: Ridding The World Of Crude Oil Without A Replacement Is Global Suicide – OpEd

Ronald Stein and Gregory Wrightstone

The world now sustains 8 billion people—ten times the population prior to the Industrial Revolution and thankfully has experienced record crop production. This rapid increase in agricultural output is partially attributable to an increase in atmospheric CO2 since 1940, This rise in CO2 levels alone is linked to major yield increases for corn, soybeans, and wheat.

The world has also experienced significant economic growth and prosperity, benefiting from the more than 6,000 products that are derived from fossil fuels. These products support the following infrastructures and were not around a few short centuries ago, because they all need components and parts made from fossil fuels that were NOT available in the pre-1800’s.

Non-animal powered Transportation
Airports
Hospitals
Electronics
Telecommunications
Communications systems
Militaries
Space programs

Worldwide crop harvests and yields continue to climb. This is contrary to what politicians and the media tell you. We are growing more food on less land than ever before in history. The underfed populations are declining. That is all good. CO2 is airborne Miracle Grow.

Who in NATO Is Ready for War?

Curtis L. Fox

On 24 February 2022, large numbers of Russian ground forces invaded Ukraine. The mass assault included almost two hundred thousand soldiers and constituted the bulk of Russia’s military expeditionary potential. A shockwave rolled through Europe as nations began to grapple with their own capacities to resist such overwhelming military force. The traditional great powers of Europe (France, the UK, and Germany) and regional powers like Poland all realized that they could not put equivalent forces in the field of any potential future battle

Europe has been under joint Anglo-American protection since 1941. Franklin Roosevelt and Winston Churchill convened a council of war as the United States geared up for its entry into World War II. They negotiated the creation of the Combined Chiefs of Staff, which was a joint Anglo-American high command that would write grand strategy, negotiate implementation, and manage day-to-day operations in all theaters of war.1 The Americans benefited from hard-won British combat experience and know-how, while the British benefited from American resources and manpower. The Combined Chiefs of Staff demonstrated to both Washington and London that they were better together and often checked each other’s excesses and incompetence. The successful D-Day invasion of 6 June 1944 further proved the efficacy of an Anglo-American invasion of Europe from the sea, establishing the framework for how the Americans would understand their role in European security for the next ninety years.

The Dawn of Britain’s Post-Brexit Journey - OPINION

Alexander Brotman

After a trying period of soul-searching, talks of second referendums and endless debates over how Brexit came to be, there is perhaps no greater signifier of the end of Britain’s long Brexit journey than the return to power of the Labour party under Sir Keir Starmer. After 14 years in power, the Conservatives under David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak clung to a narrow vision of Brexit for raw political gain and at the expense of national unity. When David Cameron announced that a referendum on Britain’s membership in the EU would take place, it was widely viewed that the UK would hold firm, remain Eurosceptic and somewhat detached from the continent, but not dare to pull the escape cord. In the process, the UK has revealed much of itself and of its constituent nations, with a fragile peace threatened in Northern Ireland, and Scottish independence looking more likely for a time but now more distant than ever. An entire class of politicians have ridden on the coattails of Brexit and will continue to do so for the remainder of their careers. The UK may never fully distance itself from the events of Brexit in the eyes of Europe and the world, but under Keir Starmer, it must try, and will be well positioned to do so.

Under Labour, the UK is likely to reestablish a sense of confidence and humility about its role in the world. While this role is undoubtedly diminished, it can still be formidable and reputable if wielded wisely. Britain’s next foreign secretary, David Lammy, who identifies as a ‘progressive realist,’ is someone who is humbled by Britain’s past, both the positives and the negatives, and who is determined to make a mark on Britain’s future. For Starmer and Lammy, the task is to lead a Britain that is under no illusions as to its capacity to shape the world to its own image. For not just Labour but the entire political class and the general public in Britain, Brexit has been a humbling experience. It fundamentally rests on a vision of the past to help mould a future that is no longer capable of existing. The UK is not unique to the phenomenon of grievance-based politics warping the perception of what is attainable, but since that fateful referendum in June 2016, it has become one of the world’s most prominent case studies.

France’s hard-Left could soon bring down the eurozone

Matthew Lynn

The populist threat has been crushed. The “far-Right” has been blocked from forming a government, and a financial crisis has been averted. With the surprising results from the French elections last night showing Marine Le Pen’s National Rally dropping to third place in the new Parliament, it would be easy to assume that the country was getting back to normal. But hold on. The election massively strengthened the far-Left – and it is the Marxist extremists that pose the real threat to the survival of the single currency.

Compared to the UK’s election, France’s was certainly a shock. With the final votes tallied, Le Pen’s NR and its allies won only 143 seats in the new Parliament, President Macron’s Ensemble secured 168, and the New Popular Front won 182. Although the NR won 37 per cent of the votes, far more than any other party, tactical voting in a two-round system meant it was locked out of power. Here’s the problem, however. Blocking Le Pen also meant handing a huge increase in power to a New Popular Front dominated by Jean-Luc Melenchon’s France Unbowed. And ironically, it is even more extreme than the NR.

In reality, the Popular Front’s manifesto makes Jeremy Corbyn look like a moderate. It promised 150 billion euros in extra public spending, increasing public sector salaries by 10 per cent immediately, making transport free, and lowering the retirement age back to 62, with longer term plans to hire more teachers and healthcare workers and invest more in green energy. It would pay for all of that with higher corporate taxes, with a wealth tax, and by borrowing more money.

Ukraine at a Crossroads: End the War or Risk Defeat

Daniel L. Davis

In May 2022, just three months into the Russia-Ukraine War, I wrote a three-part series in which I identified the military strategy that would give Ukraine the best chance of seeking out some sort of tactical success over Russia. It wouldn’t have guaranteed success, I warned, but it was a viable path. As it turned out, Ukraine did virtually none of what I recommended while—ironically—Russia successfully employed several key elements of the path I laid out.

Now, as we approach the two-and-a-half-year mark of the war, and Ukraine is being pushed back on all fronts, I am going to reprise my effort and lay out a realistic but tough path by which Ukraine might yet steal some military success from Russia.

I will warn from the outset that there is no path, however well-resourced, by which Ukraine can inflict an outright military defeat on Russia in the foreseeable future. Russia is too big, too well-resourced, and too well-manned for Ukraine to beat. Yet, if handled deftly, sometimes even tactical defeats by a weaker opponent can be leveraged into strategic success. The following plan represents such an opportunity.

Author Talks: Ruchir Sharma on the pitfalls and promise of the capitalist system

Raju Narisetti

Why write a fifth book about nations, economies, and government policies?

Writing this book has been a fascinating journey; it’s my most ambitious project. I conceived the ideas during the [COVID-19] pandemic—when governments excessively spent.

One chapter in the book is dedicated to staggering government spending and the distortions it caused in a so-called attempt to satisfy everyone. I felt outraged about what happened during the pandemic and about who benefited from those actions. The rich profited during that time due to the government throwing money away and financial bailouts.

My ideas came from that. I intend to take readers on a 100-year capitalism journey and show helpful signs of what capitalism can do when it works as it should.

The first and most important step to a cure is correctly diagnosing the problem. There are a lot of feelings, especially among progressives, that the fundamental problem in America is that governments should be doing more to rescue the poor.

A Return to Privateering - A Strategic Concept for Unconventional Warfare

Jeremiah Monk

INTRODUCTION

An often overlooked clause in Article I of the US Constitution grants Congress the War Power authority to issue “Letters of Marque,” official documents issued by a sovereign nation authorizing private citizens, often ship captains, to capture enemy vessels and goods. This was a practice particularly prevalent during the 18th and early 19th centuries, and at the time of the Founding Fathers of the United States was a fairly common instrument of national power.[ii]

The strategic application of privateering effectively ended in the mid-19th century. Treaties largely banned the practice, and the conduct and character of warfare from that point on rendered privateering unnecessary. But to this day, the US retains the right to issue Letters of Marque. This capability offers not only a potent strategic deterrent but also a significant strategic option for the nation to leverage in the event of a war with China.At the time of the founding of America, the small U.S. Navy faced a dilemma: how to combat an adversary with a much larger naval fleet, but who offered a strategic vulnerability in their reliance on maritime trade and resupply. The strategy employed was effectively outsourcing, granting private vessels with the authority to interdict British supply shipments.

Does NATO Have a Future?

Emma Ashford and Matthew Kroenig

Hey, Matt. Welcome to NATO summit week in Washington! The alliance’s leaders are here to celebrate its 75th anniversary, bringing lots of Europeans—and lots of extra traffic—to D.C., along with the incoming head of the alliance, former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who will be making his first official appearance.

This Time, NATO Is in Trouble for Real

Stephen M. Walt

When any institution—a university, a corporation, a think tank, or even a married couple—reaches its 75th anniversary, you can expect to hear its supporters offer up a rose-colored litany of its accomplishments, virtues, and remarkable longevity. The NATO summit in Washington will be no exception: There are bound to be plenty of speeches celebrating the alliance’s past achievements and extolling its role as the cornerstone of trans-Atlantic relations.

Russia ‘Turns Off’ GPS Signal Of UAVs But Hits Ukrainian Targets With Pin Point Accuracy: Kyiv Explains How

Ashish Dangwal

During an interview on Radio Liberty, Ignat disclosed that the enemy (Russia) is now launching unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) without GPS signals. The navigation system is only activated once the drone is directly above the target area, which is subsequently struck with Iskander missiles.

This method is designed to complicate detection and countermeasures for Ukrainian forces, as the drones are difficult to track until they are already in position for reconnaissance or strike missions.

“The enemy is using new tactics: launching UAVs without navigation, without a GPS signal. This signal is turned on directly over the object that the enemy plans to reconnoiter and strike there with Iskander. Thus, we also have to react to this situation,” Ignat said.

He highlighted the urgent need for the Ukrainian Defense Forces to develop and implement effective countermeasures against these reconnaissance drones.

SEAL Team Six - POTUS Has Immunity, Not You.

Monte Erfourth

This week, the Supreme Court made a decision that changed the relationship between the military and civilian leadership. In particular, it highlighted a dubious role that SEAL Team Six might play in the increasingly bitter partisan political wars our nation continues to experience. The court found that the President would be immune from criminal prosecution while conducting any official act. In exploring the issue, the court asked if the President could order SEAL Team Six to assassinate a political rival and be criminally immune.[1]-[2] The findings reveal a stunning answer. Opening the door to this possibility should inspire everyone in uniform to ask questions. These leap to mind: “Would you, as the SEAL Team Six Commander, follow an unlawful order from the President knowing he is immune from prosecution and you are not? Particularly if that meant killing Americans on American soil and that you will likely be relieved for failure to follow a Presidential directive?” As of Monday, these are questions a military commander may face.

Trump v. the United States declared all official Presidential acts beyond criminal prosecution. In short, the court grants the Executive branch absolute immunity from acts deemed “core powers.” It leaves the question of what core powers are unsettled. Still, it adds to the confusion by explaining that the President also has peripheral powers that maintain the presumption of immunity. There is no standard or definition given to clear this up. The court further adds that no official acts can be used as evidence for personally committed crimes. The bottom line is that it shifts legal jeopardy off of the President and onto his staffers, cabinet heads, lesser officials, and uniformed personnel who might follow an unlawful order from the President. For the first time in the 248 years of our union, the President, an elected official, faces no criminal liability for issuing an unlawful order.

Why NATO Should Stay Out of Asia

Mathieu Droin, Kelly A. Grieco, and Happymon Jacob

Writing in Foreign Affairs last week, NATO’s secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, took aim at Beijing, condemning its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine and declaring that NATO had entered a new era of “enduring competition with China.” This situation “shows that in today’s world, security is not a regional matter but a global one,” he wrote, adding, “Europe’s security affects Asia, and Asia’s security affects Europe.” This is not a new idea. Stoltenberg has long championed a greater role for NATO in countering China’s rise. “Everything is intertwined,” he said in June, referring to European and Asian security at a joint press conference with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, “and therefore, we need to address these challenges together.”

Stoltenberg’s statements echoed a crucial pillar of U.S. President Joe Biden’s vision for countering China and Russia, as laid out in his administration’s October 2022 National Security Strategy: “We place a premium on growing the connective tissue—on technology, trade and security—between our democratic allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific and Europe.” NATO, with Washington’s backing, has made some progress toward this goal of strengthening cooperation with key partners in Asia. In 2022, for the first time in the alliance’s history, NATO officially identified China as a security challenge. The organization is now strengthening political dialogue and practical cooperation with its Indo-Pacific partners on a wide variety of issues including cyberdefense, new technologies, space, and maritime security.

NATO defence spending: a bumper year

Fenella McGerty

NATO defence expenditure has surged in 2024, with 19 of the 32 Alliance members implementing double-digit growth in real terms to their military budgets. Increases by European members continue to be driven by the threat posed by Russia’s war in Ukraine, in addition to the ambition set in the Wales Summit Declaration in 2014 to spend at least 2% of gross domestic product on defence within a decade.

Progress towards the 2% benchmark has been notable, particularly since 2022. According to the latest military-expenditure data released by NATO, 23 members will reach or exceed the 2% of GDP target this year, compared to seven in 2022 and just three in 2014. The data also finds that aggregate spending for the Alliance now exceeds the target level as a proportion of total GDP.

The level of growth implemented by countries to reach the target level in 2024 was significant. Overall, total NATO spending increased by 11% in 2024, compared to 3% in 2023. Growth was even stronger among NATO’s European members, who increased their combined military spending by 19% in real terms in 2024, following not-insignificant growth of 9% in 2023. This is remarkable given that the annual average for 2014–22 was just 3%, and is a stark indication of the deterioration in the strategic environment in Europe. This growth spurt, however, will likely skew underlying trends and, as ever, raises concerns that when funding increases too rapidly, it may not be spent effectively.

The Euro-American Shift

George Friedman

There are certain pressures that reverberate throughout the globe that can manifest in different realms, including the economy, the military and the legal system. As the world evolves, so do these pressures. They normally affect countries one by one, but sometimes they can impact multiple countries at the same time. We are now in the midst of a transcontinental systemic crisis affecting many European countries as well as the United States.

In these regions, the forces being brought to bear have resulted in a loss of confidence in the state and the cultural matrix. There is a culture war, focused on issues ranging from gender to the movement of people, driven by economic and political forces. Long-standing cultural norms are being restructured, a shift frequently overseen and endorsed by the state. The movement of people across borders brings with it diverse cultural values, poverty-driven crime and the difficulties of social integration. Former U.S. President Donald Trump has challenged these changes with a force that has surprised and alarmed his opponents.

Amid the pressures generated by the fear of unemployment is a sense that the state has lost interest in the well-being of poorer citizens in favor of migrants. With that comes a fear that their country’s long-standing moral values will be deemphasized and new ideals constructed as new groups are granted legitimacy over older generations.

The magnificent mind of Emmanuel Macron

JAMIL ANDERLINI

Lounging with Emmanuel Macron in the lavish stateroom aboard France’s Air Force One, I asked the French president who he confides in. With whom does he share his deepest feelings when the burden of office weighs him down?

At first, he didn’t seem to understand my question. To help him out, I suggested perhaps his wife and former high school drama teacher, Brigitte? His media adviser sitting across from us loved this idea and eagerly encouraged him to endorse it.

Instead, Macron responded rather dismissively. After another long pause and much rumination he finally hit upon the answer — “myself,” he said.

I accompanied Macron and his entourage to China in April last year on an official state visit, during which I spent many hours in the presence of the president and his closest advisors, including two separate sit-down interviews in the stateroom of his plane. Several of his retinue spoke openly to me about the president and his personality, on the understanding they would not be publicly identified.

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