Indian Strategic Studies: 07/04/24

4 July 2024

Navigating Headwinds: India Expedites IMEC Amid Current Geopolitical Turmoil – Analysis

Girish Linganna

Following the General Election results in early-June, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, now in his third term, is focusing on launching the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).

The IMEC is a project aimed at creating a smooth network of ports, railways, roads, sea routes and pipelines. This infrastructure plans to take advantage of current trade routes between India, the Arab Gulf, the Eastern Mediterranean region and Europe. It will also create new infrastructure to connect the Gulf and Mediterranean regions, where many Indians live. The Mediterranean Sea borders Europe, Asia and Africa. It is a crucial route for maritime trade and has many important ports and coastal cities.

The project is the culmination of increasing diplomatic and political alignment between India, the Arab Gulf monarchies, Israel, the United States and the European Union. They all share a common goal of improving sea and land connections to boost economic exchanges between these regions. Economically, the IMEC supports the Arab Gulf monarchies’ efforts to enhance connections with India and Europe as they prepare for a future beyond oil.

Drones are changing warfare. India needs to move fast

Aditya Ramanathan

In 1898, the Polish-Russian banker Ivan Bloch published a prophetic six-volume study on the future of war. His work not only predicted the profound political and economic effects of a war involving European powers but also the horrific battlefield stalemate that would ensue because of machine guns and long range artillery.

It would take two years of carnage in the First World War’s Western Front to painfully birth new technologies and tactics that could break the deadlock. By the end of that war, the victorious armies had learnt to employ tanks, artillery, and heavily armed infantry in a carefully orchestrated symphony that would bloodily restore movement to land warfare.

It was a lesson in the transformation of warfare that would echo well into the twenty first century. Today, more than two years into the Russia-Ukraine war, onlookers in India have much to learn. If analysts of the First World War turned their attention to tanks and submarines, we must consider the impact of that broad category of systems we call drones.

The Afghan Chessboard: Strategic Rivalries And Pathways To Cooperation – OpEd

Simon Hutagalung

The role of India, China, and Russia in Afghanistan carries significant importance in the context of contemporary international relations, particularly considering the resurgence of the Taliban. These major powers each possess distinct interests in Afghanistan, including strategic, economic, and security considerations. These interests have been shaped by historical engagements, regional dynamics, and their respective stances on the Taliban. This essay explores the multifaceted roles and perspectives of India, China, and Russia in Afghanistan, evaluates the consequences of their involvement, and suggests potential pathways towards conflict resolution and regional stability.

India’s engagement in Afghanistan has primarily focused on developmental aid and infrastructural investments. Notable projects like the Salma Dam and the Afghan Parliament Building serve as emblematic examples of India’s dedication to the reconstruction and development of Afghanistan. Additionally, India has played a significant role in providing educational and medical assistance, reflecting its broader approach of employing soft power mechanisms.

The Looming Crisis in the Taiwan Strait

Bonnie S. Glaser and Bonny Lin

Since 1996, all of Taiwan’s elected presidents have at some point during their time in office declared that theirs is a sovereign, independent state. The new president of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, who was elected in January and inaugurated in May, is the first to make that declaration at the beginning of his term. The chair of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and a self-described pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence, Lai delivered an inaugural speech that made clear that Taiwan is a de facto sovereign and independent country that is neither a part of nor subordinate to China. At the same time, however, Lai pledged not to provoke China or change the cross-strait status quo.

Lai’s preference for clarity over ambiguity is rooted in his belief that China’s growing military, political, and economic pressure on Taiwan—as well as the people of Taiwan’s increasingly negative views of China—requires a firmer approach. His predecessor, former President Tsai Ing-wen, worked to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses while adopting conciliatory measures and providing assurances to Beijing. But this approach was not reciprocated by Beijing. Instead, China tore up all prior tacit restrictions on the operation of People’s Liberation Army forces around Taiwan. Beijing now conducts military exercises close to Taiwan and on the east side of the island and claims that the strait is its internal waters. This frustrates Lai and likely encouraged him to take a firmer and bolder stance.

China is turning to private firms for offensive cyber operations

MATT BRAZIL and PETER W. SINGER

Recent leaks and other revelations about Beijing’s use of hacking companies are shedding light on how privatization with Chinese characteristics is changing the government’s intelligence operations.

In February, 577 documents stolen from the Chinese hacking firm iS00N were dumped onto GitHub. The Microsoft-owned developer hub quickly removed the files, but not before analysts and media around the world were touting the “first-of-its-kind” look.

The leak was hardly the first revelation that private companies have been handling the kind of offensive cyber operations that were once the exclusive purview of government agencies. In 2015, a 400GB data dump exposed such efforts by the Italian Hacking Team. In 2021, a worldwide news consortium documented efforts by the Israeli NSO Group and others to help authoritarian regimes and private clients target tech firms and democracies around the world. And last year, the Carnegie Endowment compiled a list of 193 publicly reported instances of privatized offensive cyber-attacks executed by 40 firms, including six Chinese companies.

Greater Expectations: Why China Is Going Nuclear 'Faster Than Ever' - Opinion

Manoj Kewalramani

Recent data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) shows that the world's nuclear powers are continuing to expand investment in strengthening their arsenals. While the total number of warheads around the world is declining, the number of operational nuclear warheads is increasing. The US and Russia, of course, account for an overwhelming majority of nuclear warheads.

However, it is China that is reportedly expanding its nuclear arsenal "faster than any other country". SIPRI's researchers estimated the Chinese arsenal to be around 500 warheads, as of January 2024. As per the US Defense Department's estimate, China will likely have over 1,000 operational warheads by 2030. More importantly, the SIPRI report argues that for the first time, China is believed to have some warheads on high operational alert. In addition, over the past few years, there have been increasing reports on Chinese efforts to expand the number of its land-, sea-, and air-based delivery platforms and infrastructure, such as Intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos.

How Is Huawei Growing, Despite Heavy US Sanctions

Megha Shrivastava

Hardly a day goes by without Huawei, the Chinese telecom and technology giant, making the news. The firm has been explicitly targeted by U.S. sanctions for over five years, making its continued success in the marketplace a story of both economic and geopolitical significance.

U.S. sanctions on the Shenzhen-based conglomerate intensified in 2018 when it was added to the Department of Commerce Entity List. Given its heavy reliance on Western technology, the United States anticipated Huawei’s demise. Indeed, facing significant revenue losses and a technology crunch, CEO Ren Zhengfei noted in an internal meeting, “Huawei is fighting for its life… we have a future if we survive.”

Ren’s military background has instilled a revolutionary spirit in the company since its inception. In military terms, he said, “It’s time to pick up the guns, mount the horses, and go into battle.”

Iran-Bahrain talks on horizon signal more sunset on US hegemony

GRAHAM E. FULLER

In a seemingly minor diplomatic event in the Persian Gulf, the Kingdom of Bahrain has just agreed to begin talks with Iran to reestablish long-broken diplomatic relations between the two countries.

While Bahrain is a small island in the Gulf with little latitude in policies largely controlled by its giant neighbor, Saudi Arabia, this event carries greater significance than may readily meet the eye. For starters, Bahrain happens to be the headquarters of the American Fifth Fleet with security responsibilities for the Gulf, the Red Sea, and the Arabian Sea. Any Bahraini rapprochement with Iran will be unsettling for Washington, which might even move to try to block it.

Bahrain is also an oppressive regime run by a Sunni minority that has harshly suppressed its majority Shi’ite population. The Shi’ite majority has long been restive under these policies of discrimination, much abetted by a fiercely anti-Iranian Saudi Arabia that dominates Bahrain’s foreign policy.

NATO goes back to ballistics: Analysis

Timothy Wright & Zuzanna Gwadera

Strengthening NATO capabilitiesCanada’s recent decision to buy a ‘long-range- missile capability’ makes it the latest NATO member intent on bolstering the capacity of its ground forces to engage targets over greater distances. As of 2024, the IISS Military Balance+ shows that 11 NATO allies possess close-range or short-range ballistic missiles (CRBM/SRBM) or guided rockets with a range of over 50 kilometres, with a further seven members either having placed orders or considering purchasing such a capability. These procurements will better align national defence capabilities with NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept and its key objective for the Alliance to strengthen its defence posture.

This effort is most visible on NATO’s eastern flank. Here, orders have been driven by commonality concerns but also immediacy imperatives, with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania purchasing Lockheed Martin’s M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), guided multiple-launch rocket system (GMLRS) rockets and the M57 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). To quickly fill a capability requirement, Poland split its order between the South Korean-produced K239 Chunmoo multiple-launch rocket system (MLRS) alongside the US-made M142 HIMARS. Warsaw received its first launcher from contracts for a total of 290 K239 Chunmoo systems in August 2023. As well as guided rockets, Poland will procure the 290 km-range Korean Tactical Surface-to-Surface Missile Block II (KTSSM-II) CRBM. Finland, which joined NATO in 2023, is upgrading its M270 MLRS and procuring associated extended-range guided munitions.

France’s Problem Is Not The ‘Far Right’: It Is Socialism, A Warning For All – OpEd

Following the European elections, French credit default swaps have soared to a post-2020 record of 39 points. Many commentators blame the rise of the National Front for market turmoil, which has sent all euro area spreads higher. However, none of this would have happened if France’s debt was low, finances were strong, and the euro area economies enjoyed healthy economic growth.

France is the world’s poster child for statism. The same statism that some politicians seek to impose on the United States has economically devastated France, a wonderful country with excellent human capital and outstanding entrepreneurs.

France never had austerity. It has the world’s largest government relative to the size of the economy. Government spending to GDP exceeds 58%, the highest in the world. Unions are exceedingly powerful. Their ability to organize paralyzing strikes gives them a level of economic power that far exceeds their actual representation. France’s state is so large that the public sector employs 5.3 million people (21.1% of the active population), a ratio of civil servants to inhabitants of 70.9/1,000, according to Eurostat. France has one of the highest taxation systems in the OECD.

NATO Is Not Ready For War: Assessing Military Balance Between The Alliance And Russia – Analysis

Can Kasapoğlu

Part 1: Assessing the Russian Geopolitical Threat to NATO

The Russian Military Is Prepared for a Long War

Through his invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made clear that the freedom and security of Europe depend on the West’s ability to deter and defend against Russia. Unfortunately, while Russia is taking enormous losses in Ukraine, it is learning and rapidly reconstituting its military. On the eve of the Washington summit, the Kremlin’s ability to threaten the North Atlantic Treaty Organization with military force is real and pressing.

Russia’s military policy to wear down Ukraine and the West by sustaining a prolonged war depends on a stable wartime economy footing, a resilient defense industry, and three principal warfighting capabilities: artillery, heavy armor, and manpower. Like the Soviet Red Army, Putin’s combat formations rely on mass firepower, large amounts of heavy armor, and massed troop formations with favorable force-to-terrain and force-on-force ratios. In the meantime, drone and missile strikes terrorize Ukrainian population centers.

Methodology

It is difficult to determine Russia’s real military power. Continuing old Soviet habits, official Kremlin data is often exaggerated for propaganda purposes. Still, it points at a trend. Adjusting Russia’s prewar defense industrial factory outlook to account for the country’s current 24-hour workload also offers some insight. Likewise, open-source intelligence can help track the military assistance Russia has received. For example, the number of North Korean containers carrying ammunition or imagery of the Iranian drone plant in Tatarstan can define the upper and lower bounds of Russia’s acquisitions. Another critical indicator is Russian artillery employment in Ukraine. Comparing Russian units’ artillery usage over defined periods of time can suggest when supplies are high and when they are low. Last, official bodies like the United Kingdom Ministry of Defense now offer declassified intelligence, and a number of Western think tanks, including Hudson Institute, monitor the latest open-source intelligence.

Is France’s Far-Right Victory A Turning Point For Europe? – Analysis

Luke Allnutt

France’s far-right National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, has secured a clear victory in the first round of parliamentary elections. If the party wins an absolute majority in the July 7 runoff, France would have a far-right government for the first time since World War II.

This result marks another big setback for beleaguered French President Emmanuel Macron, who dissolved parliament and called for snap elections in an attempt to halt the far-right’s progress after RN’s record gains in the June 6-9 European Parliament elections.

So, What Happens Now?

Even if the second round doesn’t lead to a National Rally government, this is perhaps the biggest political turmoil to engulf France in decades.

The key question is whether the RN can secure an absolute majority in the second round in the 577-seat National Assembly, France’s lower house of parliament.

Efforts are already under way to form “Republican fronts” — anti-Le Pen alliances aimed at preventing the RN from gaining a majority. Macron has urged voters who supported his centrist Ensemble alliance, which trailed in third place with about 20 percent, to back “clearly republican and democratic” candidates in constituencies where his party finished third.

Late-Stage Putinism: The War In Ukraine And Russia’s Shifting Ideology – Analysis

Mikhail Komin

Nakedly political

At the end of last year, a scandal erupted in Russia over a new phase of the state’s promotion of traditional and conservative values. Prominent figures from the Russian cultural sphere were denounced by pro-war activists and the Russian media for their attendance at a “almost naked” party. The event was privately organised, but the dissemination of images online led to the ostracising of these celebrities. The fallout included financial losses approximating €3m from cancelled appearances at new year events and shows, one attendee sentenced to 25 days in detention, and the event’s organiser facing scrutiny from the Federal Tax Service. Subsequently, a Russian court characterised the gathering as “propaganda of non-traditional sexual relations,” associating it with the LGBT movement, which Russia declared “extremist” in autumn 2023.

This incident underscores a significant ideological shift in the Russian political landscape, in the third year of the country’s extensive conflict in Ukraine, which those involved had doubtless failed to notice and adapt to promptly. Members of the cultural elite who chose to remain in Russia after the country’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine without explicitly supporting the war believed they could maintain their pre-war lifestyles and business activities. Yet practices once deemed standard in the cosmopolitan cultural life, where state intervention was minimal, must now adapt to the transformed ideological landscape.

Ukraine Situation Report: Russia Strikes Airbase In Drone-Directed Missile Attack

HOWARD ALTMAN

Video emerged on social media showing a missile attack on the Ukraine’s Mirgorod Air Base in Poltava Oblast on Monday. The base, home to Ukraine’s 831st Tactical Aviation Brigade, is located in central Ukraine, about 100 miles southwest of the border. The attack and loss of aircraft has been confirmed by the Ukrainian Air Force.

The video, posted by the Russian Aerospace Forces-connected Fighterbomber Telegram channel opens with a surveillance drone view of the airfield with Su-27 Flanker fighter jets parked on the apron.

It later cuts to scattered puffs of smoke from a cluster munitions strike that Russian milbloggers say was carried out by Iskander short-range ballistic missiles. Iskander-E variants can contain those, according to the U.S. Army. We have previously reported on their use in Ukraine.

The attack was confirmed by Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Col. Yuri Ignat as well as Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels. However, the battle damage assessment remained in dispute.

How the US should respond to Hezbollah-Israel war risks

Tom Rogan

Continuing to fight Hamas in Gaza, Israel is preparing for a separate war with the Lebanese Hezbollah. The Lebanon-based terrorist group and political entity has been engaged in a low-level conflict with Israel since the day following Hamas’s Oct. 7 atrocities in Israel. Hezbollah’s rocket and other weapons fire has forced tens of thousands of Israelis to evacuate their homes in northern Israel.

Yet far greater escalation may soon follow. Having imposed significant damage on Hamas military capabilities, Israeli leaders believe they have earned the breathing room to refocus their gun sights on Hezbollah. While the Biden administration is attempting to mediate a peaceful resolution, the status quo is plainly unsustainable. Secretary of State Antony Blinken identified the problem on Monday, noting that Israel’s “people don’t feel safe to go to their homes. Absent doing something about the insecurity, people won’t have the confidence to return.”

What might that something look like?

One of two things: Either Hezbollah suspends its attacks on northern Israel or Israel will launch a ground offensive into southern Lebanon and attack Hezbollah from the air across Lebanon. The intent of the offensive would be to dismantle Hezbollah’s firing capacity against northern Israel and establish a buffer zone sanitized of Hezbollah forces. That buffer zone would hopefully then allow Israelis in the country’s north to return to their homes in relative security. The challenge for Israel is that Hezbollah retains a far more capable military force in terms of rockets, missiles, and other weapons than Hamas did on Oct. 8. A war between these two parties would be bloody and difficult for Hezbollah in particular but also for Israel.

Israel’s Two Big Lies

LIEL LEIBOVITZ

On the day of his arrest, February 12, 1974, Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn released a short statement that has since become a manifesto for individuals—and societies—in times of upheaval. It’s long, though worth reading in its entirety, but it comes down to four crystalline words: Live not by lies.

It’s time Israelis took Solzhenitsyn’s advice to heart. Because tragically, now that it could least afford mendacity, Israel is being spun off course by two enormous lies, one destabilizing the nation domestically and the other corrupting its ability to effectively defend itself.

Let’s first look inward, to the most explosive political issue threatening to derail the Israeli government mid-war: namely, the conscription of roughly 63,000 young Haredi men to the Israel Defense Forces. The question of whether or not Israel should recognize—and fund—the right of yeshiva students to pursue their Torah studies rather than join the army has been a political hot potato since at least the 1970s, with various administrations attempting to reach some legislative compromise that would keep both sides content. You would hardly know, listening to the hyperventilation in the Israeli media, that there are already 6,000 Haredi men serving in the army, that hundreds of them are combat soldiers, and that they volunteer in such solid and consistent numbers that the IDF saw fit, in 1999, to establish an independent battalion just for Haredi soldiers, called Netzah Yehuda.

Iran knows the weaknesses of Western powers and continues to exploit them - opinion

ILAN POMERANC

After Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah made a clear and direct threat against Cyprus, one would have expected that either the European Union, Great Britain – which has military installations on the island – or the United States, which has strengthened relations with Nicosia in recent years, would have made a well-publicized declaration at the highest levels that threats to the island country in the eastern Mediterranean Sea will not be tolerated.

One would have thought that one or all of these parties would have warned Nasrallah and his patrons in Tehran, in the strongest terms, that any direct attack on a European ally would be met with a swift and significant response in kind.

Instead, a low-level spokesman for the EU put out a muted response to Nasrallah’s threats in the form of a short statement to the effect that a threat against one union member state is a threat against all.

NATO Must Sell Itself to Americans

Michael Peck

By that standard, NATO doesn’t appear to be doing badly. Two-thirds of Americans want to maintain or increase America’s role in the alliance, according to a February Gallup poll. This parallels another survey, by Pew Research, which found 58% have a favorable view of NATO.

But is this bag of potato chips half-full or half-empty? Gallup also found that 28% of Americans either want to reduce support for NATO or withdraw entirely. Pew concluded that 38% have an unfavorable view of NATO.

In other words, just two years after Russia invaded Ukraine, and 75 years after NATO was founded, one-third of the American public wants to end the country’s most important and most successful security relationship.

The numbers point to other ominous trends. In the face of an aggressive Russia and steadily growing Chinese power, one might expect Americans to value alliances more than ever, yet the Pew result of 58% was down four percentage points from a year earlier, according to the research center.

Will Europe’s Front-Line States Have Enough Soldiers to Fight?

Jakub Grygiel

Would the European Union’s eastern front-line states fight back like Ukraine if Russia attacked them? Unfortunately, this is no longer a hypothetical scenario: Hardly a day goes by without a Russian government official or pundit threatening Poland, Finland, or the Baltic states with missile attacks, an invasion, or both. In word and deed, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made clear that he seeks to restore Moscow’s former European empire.

Europe Alone Nine thinkers on the continent’s future without America’s embrace.

Mark Leonard, Constanze Stelzenmüller, Nathalie Tocci, Carl Bildt, Robin Niblett, Radoslaw Sikorski, Guntram Wolff, Bilahari Kausikan, Ivan Krastev, and Stefan Theil

No bloc of countries has, for the past 75 years, been as umbilically tied to the United States as Europe. First, its western half and, since the end of the Cold War, much of its eastern half have prospered under the world’s most extensive bonds in trade, finance, and investment. Europe could also depend on the U.S. military’s iron commitment—enshrined in the 75-year-old NATO alliance—to come to its defense. Together with a few other nations, the United States and Europe defined many of the institutions that comprise what we call the Western-led order. The U.S.-European alliance has arguably been the bedrock of the global system as we know it today.

But the era in which Europe could count on the United States may be nearing its end. No matter who wins the U.S. presidential election in November, Washington’s attention is shifting to Beijing and the Indo-Pacific. Should Donald Trump return to the White House, it’s conceivable that the United States could question its commitment to NATO—or even pull out of the alliance altogether, a scenario that will hang over the bloc’s 75th anniversary summit in Washington in July.

Europe could soon face its threats alone. Moscow has unleashed the first major land war in Europe since World War II with the goal of restoring its Cold War empire, which included countries that are now members of the European Union. If the war in the Middle East turns into a greater conflagration, it could send new waves of migrants into the EU.

Why Can’t the U.S. Navy and Its Allies Stop the Houthis?

Keith Johnson and Jack Detsch

More than six months after the Houthi insurgent group in Yemen started seriously disrupting maritime traffic in the Red Sea, global shipping has had to come to terms with a new normal where delays, derangements, and higher costs are only getting worse.

IBM Develops The AI-Quantum Link

Jim McGregor

Over the past year, there has been increasing focus on how quantum computers fit into and link to classic computing architectures. Quantum computers could act as an accelerator to perform complex calculations for certain tasks that are beyond the capabilities of even classical supercomputers. The classical computers or servers are used for preprocessing in the development of quantum algorithms and circuits and for postprocessing to manage the errors, improve the results, and complete the processing task. As is evident from the growing number of AI use cases, AI can enhance classical computing capabilities. So, it stands to reason that AI could also enhance quantum computing capabilities and several companies are working towards achieving this goal.

Even though many people and companies are starting to combine quantum and AI into a single term, the two are very distinct technologies. AI is the training and use of neural network models developed and run on classical computing platforms powered by CPUs, GPUs, NPUs, DSPs, FPGAs, and other traditional binary-processing logic elements. Quantum computers use alternative compute architectures, such as superconducting transmon qubits, to solve very complex problems using quantum physics. While the two require different hardware, software, and support systems, the integration of the two is moving forward, especially for the benefit of quantum computing. IBM is one of the companies paving the way for AI to complement quantum computing development.

MIT robotics pioneer Rodney Brooks thinks people are vastly overestimating generative AI

Ron Miller

When Rodney Brooks talks about robotics and artificial intelligence, you should listen. Currently the Panasonic Professor of Robotics Emeritus at MIT, he also co-founded three key companies, including Rethink Robotics, iRobot and his current endeavor, Robust.ai. Brooks also ran the MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL) for a decade starting in 1997.

In fact, he likes to make predictions about the future of AI and keeps a scorecard on his blog of how well he’s doing.

He knows what he’s talking about, and he thinks maybe it’s time to put the brakes on the screaming hype that is generative AI. Brooks thinks it’s impressive technology, but maybe not quite as capable as many are suggesting. “I’m not saying LLMs are not important, but we have to be careful [with] how we evaluate them,” he told TechCrunch.

The carbon quandary: AI, big data, and impending environmental crisis

Arindam Goswami

Imagine this: skies tinged orange, air thick with a burnt odour, and trees resembling extras in a zombie movie, their skeletal branches stretching out. Cities that once bustled now echo as ghost towns, with only occasional tumbleweeds drifting through. It might seem like a scene from a post-apocalyptic film, but it could become our reality if we fail to address carbon emissions.

Enter Artificial Intelligence (AI)—our potential superhero or unexpected villain in the climate change saga. According to recent research from Nature, AI systems like GPT-3 and BLOOM might be our secret weapon against carbon emissions. But hold your applause. Is it really as simple as letting robots save the day?

AI: The Unlikely Savior

Let’s look at the figures. Training GPT-3, one of the most advanced AI systems, generates an astonishing 552 metric tons of CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent). Alarming, right? However, when spread across the millions of tasks it performs, each query only emits about 2.2 grams of CO2e. BLOOM, another AI system, is even more efficient, with emissions of around 1.6 grams of CO2e per query. Now, compare this to a human writer. A writer in the US produces approximately 1400 grams of CO2e per page, while an Indian writer, working in a less energy-intensive environment, generates about 180 grams of CO2e per page. This comparison is akin to contrasting a Prius with a gas-guzzling SUV—the AI is far more eco-friendly.

The Importance of AI Safety Institutes

Amlan Mohanty & Tejas Bharadwaj

Introduction

At the AI Seoul Summit held in May 2024, over twenty countries affirmed the role of artificial intelligence (AI) safety institutes to “enhance international cooperation on AI risk management and increase global understanding in the realm of AI safety and security.”

Countries at the forefront of AI development, including the United States, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, and the European Union, signed the Seoul declaration. This has laid the groundwork for a more collaborative and multilateral approach to AI safety through established institutions.

India has participated in the Seoul ministerial statement, suggesting there is political appetite for a national AI safety institute that can contribute to future engagements on AI safety.

In this essay, we trace the evolution of AI safety institutes around the world, explore different national approaches, and examine the need for an AI safety institute in India.

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