Patrick Drennan
Russian President Vladimir Putin has doubled down on his decision to continue the war in Ukraine, threatening to use nuclear weapons if he cannot get the solution he seeks in negotiations with incoming American President Donald Trump. He wants to keep existing boundaries based on the battlefield front lines, including annexed Ukrainian oblasts, and disarm Ukraine and deny them membership of NATO.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected this proposal outright, but also said “Ukraine deserves to make next year a year of peace".
Neither side can fight on for another 12 months without causing considerable carnage and economic calamity to their respective countries.
The recent actions of both leaders seem to recognize this reality. Notwithstanding Putin’s aggressive nuclear threats after Ukraine’s use of powerful long-distant NATO weapons on Russian territory, where they struck North Korean troops and wounded a high-ranking general, Russia responded with a ballistic missile attack on a minor (undefended) Ukrainian town. Notably, Russia warned the USA before firing, so as not to risk a nuclear response.
Nevertheless, Putin still assumes that Russia’s war machine, with support from its allies in Iran, China, and North Korea, can outlast Ukraine and NATO. However, the Institute for the Study of War disputes this - “Russian forces lost roughly 80,000 troops during September and October 2024, but likely only recruited an estimated 60-70,000 into military service - indicating that the Russian military’s recruitment rates have begun to fall behind Russia’s previous one-to-one loss replacement rate.”
Also, Russia's DIB, the country's defense production system, is unlikely to match the production rate necessary to replace Russian weapons losses under current monetary policies. Foreign Policy, citing OSINT analysts, report that Russia has been losing around 320 tank and artillery cannon barrels per month but can only produce 20 per month. They declare that Russia will likely run out of cannon barrels in 2025 due to battlefield losses, dwindling Soviet stocks, and sanctions impacts.
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