25 December 2024

Why a Rapid U.S. Withdrawal From Europe Will Reinforce China

Olivier Schmitt

Those around U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump who advocate for a rapid U.S. drawdown in Europe to better counter China would be wise to heed the law of unintended consequences.

Broadly speaking, the elevator pitch for such a rapid withdrawal goes something like this: The United States’ main threat is China, European countries are wealthy­—with a combined GDP five times larger than Russia’s—therefore, Europe can take care of itself. The specifics and the timelines may vary, but overall, the U.S. withdrawal from Europe should be welcomed and will certainly not benefit U.S. adversaries since Europe can and should spend more on its own defense.

But the most fervent proponents of this approach seem to be hyper-compartmentalizing a hyper-interconnected world. In doing so, they run the risk of scoring an own goal: the strengthening of China’s economy.

The rapid withdrawal argument is divorced from empirical reality for a simple reason: It overlooks the European economic base of power that would make such a quick uptick in defense spending possible, especially when coupled with potential Trump trade tariffs.

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