Henri J. Barkey
What role are outside powers playing in Syria’s new rebel offensive?
Turkey is the most important outside power supporting the rebel side. It geographically adjoins Syrian rebel territory in the northwest, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government supported the 2011 Arab Spring uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. At times, he also backed a variety of Islamist groups during the Syrian civil war. The leading and most substantial rebel group, Ha’yat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is the former Al-Nusra Front, a jihadist organization that fought the self-declared Islamic State (ISIS). It renamed itself and claimed that it renounced some of its more extreme positions, has become more respectful of minorities, and has taken on some institutional responsibilities in the form of local government. While there are indications that HTS acquired Turkish help in the form of arms, primarily drones, prior to this offensive, HTS is not Ankara’s primary client. It’s also worth noting that HTS has reportedly been manufacturing its own arms in recent years.
Turkey’s ally among the rebels is the Syrian National Army (SNA), which, despite its name, is a wholly Turkish-owned entity. Since the defeat of ISIS, the Turks have been more concerned with the emergence of a Syrian-Kurdish entity in northern Syria led by the Syrian Democratic Forces, the SDF. The SDF, though a Syrian organization, has its roots in the Turkish-Kurdish insurgency. The United States decided to partner with the SDF when the Iraqi, Syrian, and Iraqi-Kurdish forces melted away at the height of the ISIS onslaught in 2014. This partnership was successful, and to this day, the United States maintains a force of roughly nine hundred soldiers in northern Syria in collaboration with the SDF to prevent the resurgence of ISIS.
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