Mark F. Cancian, Matthew F. Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham
Background
Why This Report?
The United States and China have profound interests in peace, but conflict is far from unthinkable. The United States has five treaty allies in the Indo-Pacific and commitments to their security, as well as broader interests in maintaining a regional balance of power. China, for its part, seeks to redress what it views as historical grievances. Both states now openly acknowledge that they are engaged in strategic competition with each other. They highlight the other as their primary strategic competitor and operate military forces in close proximity. Nowhere is the risk of conflict higher than Taiwan. China seeks reunification with the island, peacefully if possible but through force if necessary. It has employed diplomatic and military tools to signal its unwillingness to see Taiwan move toward independence.
Taiwan is not a treaty ally of the United States, which maintains a policy of “strategic ambiguity” toward events there.5 But Washington insists that any change to the status quo be peaceful and that the United States might intervene in the event of Chinese attack. Because both the United States and China are nuclear powers, the question of nuclear use or threats of nuclear use would loom large if a conflict over Taiwan were to pit U.S. and Chinese forces against each other. Coupled with China’s ongoing nuclear modernization, this creates an important area for study.
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