US, allies must rebuild air forces, invest in drones to counter China’s missile threat to runways: Stimson

Colin Clark

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The US, its allies and partners must change their air forces to cope with China’s enormous missile force that could cripple air bases throughout the Indo-Pacific for up to 12 days in event of war, according to a new report by the Stimson Center.

“By denying the United States the use of runways and taxiways in the region, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could gain air superiority without ever defeating America’s arsenal of advanced fighters and bombers,” says the think tank report, released today. “No combination of U.S. countermeasures — including the greater dispersal of aircraft in the region, improved runway repair capabilities, and more robust missile defenses — is likely to solve the problem. There is a real and growing danger that Beijing might conclude that it could keep American airpower at bay long enough to accomplish a quick fait accompli.”

Central to the analysis is US vulnerability to attacks on runways in Japan, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia and Palau. And it modeled how well missile defense, faster runway repair times and the dispersion of U.S. aircraft across the theater would perform against the Chinese threat.