Elie Tenenbaum and Leo Litra
Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election has set the stage for a massive shock in Europe. On the campaign trail, Trump promised to move quickly toward cease-fire talks in Ukraine and to negotiate a peace deal with Russia, the aggressor in the conflict. Should his administration follow through on those pledges, the outcome will have sweeping ramifications, not just for Ukraine but for European security more broadly. Europeans—including Ukrainians—cannot be left out of the discussions that will determine their future. Resolute European countries must now come together to form a coalition, claim a seat at the table, and make their conditions heard, loud and clear.
To start, the European coalition must insist that the inclusion of credible and effective security guarantees to Ukraine is a nonnegotiable precondition to any serious talks. And Europe must be prepared to provide these guarantees itself, deploying troops to Ukrainian territory to serve as a deterrent to a future large-scale Russian offensive. Without an ironclad assurance that Ukraine will remain protected, the cure of a cease-fire may prove much worse than the disease of war—and an inadequate settlement may well doom not just Ukraine but the continent as a whole.
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
The war has not been going well for Ukraine. After its failed offensive in the summer of 2023, Kyiv tried a surprise incursion into the Kursk region of Russia in August 2024, but it has not been able to tip the tactical balance in its favor on the frontlines. Instead, it faces ever-greater problems. Since last summer, Moscow has activated more troops from its national guard and reserves, and just weeks ago, it brought in thousands of North Korean “special forces,” on loan from the regime in Pyongyang. Russian forces have made incremental gains on the war’s main front, especially in the Donetsk region, where they enjoy quantitative advantages in equipment, ammunition, and troop strength. Ukraine’s shortage of air defense systems allows Russian manned and unmanned aircraft to conduct reconnaissance and to take out any high-value Ukrainian targets that are within shooting range, impeding the force concentration necessary for offensive action.
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