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10 December 2024

Ukraine Military Situation: Russian Military Continues To Press On Multiple Fronts – Analysis

Can Kasapoğlu

1. The United States Will Equip Ukraine with Antipersonnel Land Mines

The Biden administration has decided to send a $725 million military assistance package to Ukraine. This presidential drawdown authority package will include anti-drone systems, 105mm- and 155mm-class artillery rounds, anti-tank systems, interceptors for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS), rockets for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), nonpersistent antipersonnel land mines, and other assets to help Ukraine sustain the fight.

The land mine package will likely include 155mm area denial artillery munitions (ADAMs), Modular Pack Mine Systems (MOPMS), and M136 Volcano vehicle-launched scatterable mine systems. These weapons will allow Ukrainian combat formations to rapidly deploy land mines across sizable contested areas. This will significantly enhance their defensive capabilities and deter Russian offensives.

Open-source intelligence suggests that mines have played a significant role in helping the Ukrainian military fend off Russian assaults. Given the infantry-centric character of the war and the favorable force-on-force and force-to-terrain ratios that Russia enjoys, antipersonnel mines could give Kyiv an additional lethal capability. The possibility that North Korea could combat deploy additional troops to Russia, discussed during Russian Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov’s recent visit to Pyongyang, renders Ukraine’s need for antipersonnel mines even more urgent.

2. The Ukrainian Drone Program Sets Ambitious Goals for 2025

Ukraine’s progress in robotic systems continues to provide hope for Kyiv and lessons in emerging and disruptive technologies for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

In an interview with Reuters, Ukraine’s minister of digital transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, indicated that Ukraine plans to boost its production of unmanned ground vehicles in 2025 to augment its land warfare capabilities. This year Ukrainian defense companies have produced around 1.3 million drones, mainly of the first-person-view (FPV) variety. Fedorov indicated to Reuters that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has set a production goal of 30,000 strategic deep-strike drones to hit targets deep inside Russia. Fedorov also stated that the Ukrainian military will start to field autonomous drones with high-end artificial intelligence features next year.

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