Sinan Ciddi
In a recent Foreign Policy article, Steven Cook and I highlighted how Turkey may be overplaying its hand in Syria. With events evolving rapidly, it seems that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now aims to dominate Syria’s political future, sidelining both Moscow and Tehran.
To say Erdogan is “playing with fire” is an understatement. His maneuvers should deeply concern the incoming Trump administration, as Erdogan will likely pitch Turkey as the solution to Syria’s woes. However, allowing Turkey unchecked influence in a post-Assad Syria risks destabilizing the region further.
Turkey’s Backing of HTS
Ankara appears to be grooming Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as Syria’s new political order.
Turkey portrays HTS as capable of establishing a bureaucratic state that brings law and order while serving Syria’s diverse population. This likely explains Turkey’s offer of military assistance to HTS—an alarming gesture from a NATO member.
HTS, however, remains a jihadist organization rooted in Al-Qaeda and ISIS. It celebrated Hamas’ October 7 attacks on Israel, and its leadership still threatens to “conquer Jerusalem.”
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